Technologies
Fed Rate Cuts Unlikely This Summer. Are Lower Mortgage Rates Still Possible?
The Fed’s impact on mortgage rates isn’t direct, but it matters. Here’s what to know about the central bank’s latest decision.
There’s a wild amount of uncertainty in today’s economy, but one thing is clear: The Federal Reserve isn’t planning to lower interest rates this summer. Mortgage rates, which have been stuck near 7% for the past several months, are likely to stay higher for longer.
On June 18, Fed officials voted to leave borrowing rates unchanged for a fourth consecutive meeting. Holding interest rates where they are allows the central bank to evaluate how President Trump’s unpredictable tariff campaign, immigration policies and federal cutbacks affect both inflation and the job market.Â
Often, what the central bank simply says about future plans can cause a stir in the housing market. Mortgage rates are driven by bond investors and a host of other factors, i.e., not directly determined by the Fed.Â
“The mortgage market reacts fast to uncertainty, and we’ve got no shortage of it this summer,” said Nicole Rueth, of the Rueth Team with Movement Mortgage.Â
Why is the Fed not cutting interest rates?
The Fed sets and oversees US monetary policy under a dual mandate to maintain price stability and maximum employment. It does this largely by adjusting the federal funds rate, the rate at which banks borrow and lend their money.
When economic growth is weak and unemployment is high, the Fed lowers interest rates to encourage spending and propel growth. Reducing interest rates could also allow inflation to surge, which is generally bad for mortgage rates.Â
Keeping rates high, however, increases the risk of a job-loss recession that would cause widespread financial hardship. If unemployment spikes — a real possibility given rising jobless claims — the Fed could be forced to implement interest rate cuts earlier than anticipated.Â
“The Federal Reserve is in one of the trickiest spots in recent economic history,” said Ali Wolf, Zonda and NewHomeSource chief economist.Â
What is the forecast for interest rate cuts in 2025?
On Wednesday, markets eyed the Fed’s Summary of Economic Projections, which outlined two 0.25% rate cuts in 2025, unchanged from earlier estimates. But that’s far from guaranteed. The updated forecast suggests that tariffs will push prices higher, suggesting that consumers have not yet felt the full effect of these import duties.Â
“Everyone that I know is forecasting a meaningful increase in inflation in the coming months from tariffs, because someone has to pay for the tariffs,” Fed Chair Jerome Powell said during a June 18 press conference.
Inflation could prompt the central bank to forgo one (or both) of its projected rate cuts, which would keep mortgage rates high.Â
Though Powell remains noncommittal on any specific time frame, financial markets still see a potential interest rate cut coming as early as this fall.Â
Most housing market forecasts, which already factor in at least two 0.25% Fed cuts, call for 30-year mortgage rates to stay above 6.5% throughout 2025.
“Average rates are likely to stay in the 6.75% to 7.25% range unless the Fed signals multiple cuts and backs up their policy with data,” Rueth said.Â
What factors affect mortgage rates?
Mortgage rates move around for many of the same reasons home prices do: supply, demand, inflation and even the employment rate.Â
Personal factors, such as a homebuyer’s credit score, down payment and home loan amount, also determine one’s individual mortgage rate. Different loan types and terms also have varying interest rates.Â
Policy changes: When the Fed adjusts the federal funds rate, it affects many aspects of the economy, including mortgage rates. The federal funds rate affects how much it costs banks to borrow money, which in turn affects what banks charge consumers to make a profit.
Inflation: Generally, when inflation is high, mortgage rates tend to be high. Because inflation chips away at purchasing power, lenders set higher interest rates on loans to make up for that loss and ensure a profit.
Supply and demand: When demand for mortgages is high, lenders tend to raise interest rates. This is because they have only so much capital to lend in the form of home loans. Conversely, when demand for mortgages is low, lenders tend to slash interest rates to attract borrowers.
Bond market activity: Mortgage lenders peg fixed interest rates, like fixed-rate mortgages, to bond rates. Mortgage bonds, also called mortgage-backed securities, are bundles of mortgages sold to investors and are closely tied to the 10-year Treasury. When bond interest rates are high, the bond has less value on the market where investors buy and sell securities, causing mortgage interest rates to go up.
Other key indicators:Â Employment patterns and other aspects of the economy that affect investor confidence and consumer spending and borrowing also influence mortgage rates. For instance, a strong jobs report and a robust economy could indicate greater demand for housing, which can put upward pressure on mortgage rates. When the economy slows and unemployment is high, mortgage rates tend to be lower.
Read more:Â Fact Check: Trump Doesn’t Have the Power to Force Lower Interest Rates
Is now a good time to get a mortgage?
Even though timing is everything in the mortgage market, you can’t control what the Fed does. “Forecasting interest rates is nearly impossible in today’s market,” said Wolf.Â
Regardless of the economy, the most important thing when shopping for a mortgage is to make sure you can comfortably afford your monthly payments.Â
More homebuying advice
Technologies
Experts weigh in as researcher says AI has more than 10% chance of ‘killing all humans’
Jacob Coxon said in a post on X that Anthropic and OpenAI are “gambling with our lives.”
An artificial intelligence researcher quit his job at Anthropic on Tuesday and accused the company, and its chief rival, OpenAI, of acting irresponsibly, igniting a frenzy of concern on social media about the rapid pace of the technology’s development.
Jacob Coxon, who has worked as a researcher at both companies, said in a post on X that he resigned out of concern that Anthropic and OpenAI are “gambling with our lives.” He said the people building AI “earnestly believe that it could kill us all by the end of the decade.”
“Do not underestimate the power of this technology,” Coxon wrote. “These will soon be superhuman systems that can hack anything, revolutionize any field overnight, and acquire real power and resources.”
Coxon’s post, which has been viewed more than 70 million times, reflects a long-standing debate in Silicon Valley about whether AI can be safely developed and controlled. As Anthropic and OpenAI barrel toward potentially historic initial public offerings while releasing increasingly advanced models, many researchers are calling for a coordinated slowdown.
OpenAI’s chief scientist, Jakub Pachocki, published a blog post on Sunday and warned that no AI company has “solved alignment and monitoring to a sufficient degree to continue responsibly scaling at maximum speed for much longer.” In the AI industry, alignment refers to the work by AI developers to ensure that the system behaves in accordance with human values and intentions.
“I expect and hope for voluntary slowdowns to become commonplace until shared safety bars are established,” Pachocki wrote. “And I believe that international coordination on future AI development needs to become a top priority for governments around the world.”
Coxon’s post on Tuesday also struck a chord with industry researchers who are worried about recursive self-improvement, or an AI system becoming capable of designing and developing its successor without human intervention. Recursive self-improvement is not yet possible, but companies, including Anthropic and OpenAI, have warned that it would make it easier for humans to lose control over those systems.
“Neither company is acting responsibly,” Coxon wrote. “They are racing straight to self-improving superintelligence.”
Evan Hubinger, an alignment lead at Anthropic, echoed Coxon’s comments in a post on X late Tuesday.
“Jacob is correct here—we really do earnestly believe AI could kill all humans! I personally think it is >10% within the next decade,” Hubinger wrote. “I believe Anthropic is trying its best, but we do not yet have a plan to solve alignment for superintelligence and are not clearly on track to.”
While extreme, concerns about the potential for AI to cause human extinction or other catastrophic events are not new in AI research circles. In 2023, for instance, prominent AI researchers and executives, including OpenAI CEO Sam Altman and Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei, signed a statement that said “Mitigating the risk of extinction from AI should be a global priority alongside other societal-scale risks such as pandemics and nuclear war.”
Some experts even use a shorthand, p(doom), to estimate the probability of dire outcomes that could stem from AI.
Anthropic’s Hubinger was also one of roughly 1,400 AI researchers who signed an open letter called “Pacing the Frontier” in July. The letter urged the U.S. government to develop the tools necessary to support an effort to “deliberately pace the frontier of automated AI development.”
Some members of Congress have taken steps to try and address AI’s rapid advancement in the months following, but there’s no clear consensus about how the technology should be regulated.
In July, Rep. Jay Obernolte, R-Calif., and Rep. Lori Trahan, D-Mass., introduced a bill called the FRONTIER Act, which aims to establish a framework for governing the deployment of advanced AI models. And earlier this month, Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., and Rep. Greg Casar, D-Texas, introduced a bill called the Ban Artificial Superintelligence Act, which would temporarily pause advanced AI development until the federal government establishes safety rules. Both bills have been met with mixed receptions.
“Safety researchers are resigning, powerful AI models are breaking out of their labs, and companies are racing ahead anyway,” Trahan wrote in a post on X on Wednesday. “It’s past time for Congress to get off the sidelines and do its job.”
Lawmakers are also trying to navigate growing public backlash against AI data centers, the large facilities that house the hardware for training and running AI models. The pushback has grown so intense that the The National Republican Senatorial Committee, or NRSC, said last month that data centers have become a “sleeper issue” for the entire midterm election cycle, as CNBC previously reported.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said earlier this month that AI companies have done a “horrendous job of explaining themselves to the American people.”
“They’re going to have to take some of the blame, and they are going to have to convince the American people that all the benefits will not accrue to a small group,” Bessent said, following the G20 meetings with finance ministers and central bankers in Asheville, North Carolina. “That’s what they hear from me.”
Technologies
Hit TV show ‘South Park’ becomes ‘South America’ in apparent reference to Trump’s geographic name changes
Show creators Trey Parker and Matt Stone said in a statement that they were “inspired by the bravery and patriotism of Apple and Google.”
Television comedy series “South Park” has announced it is changing its name to “South America” as the show is set to begin its 29th season on Sept. 16.
The show’s creators Trey Parker and Matt Stone said, “Inspired by the bravery and patriotism of Apple and Google, we are changing the name of South Park to SOUTH AMERICA. We especially want to thank our parent company Paramount — a Skydance Capitulation.”
Parker and Stone’s statement comes after U.S. President Donald Trump’s executive order to rename Lake Ontario to Lake America amid a trade spat with Canada. Canadian officials said they will not recognize the new name.
Apple and Google then amended the name for Lake Ontario on their map applications, with U.S. users seeing “Lake America,” while Canadian users saw “Lake Ontario.”
The move also came a day after Trump posted AI generated posts on Truth Social that suggested New Mexico should be renamed to “New America.”
Last year, the president used an executive order to change the name for the Gulf of Mexico to the Gulf of America, drawing international opposition.
“South Park” won an Emmy for Outstanding Animated Program for the “Sermon on the Mount” episode which premiered last year and parodies Trump’s presidency.
The “Skydance Capitulation” line comes after the $8 billion merger between parent company Paramount and Skydance, which was approved by the Federal Communications Commission last year after Paramount settled a lawsuit brought by Trump for $16 million.
Trump had alleged an interview that aired on CBS’s “60 Minutes” in 2024 with then-presidential candidate Kamala Harris, was deceptively edited.
Paramount subsidiary CBS News in July 2025 said it was canceling comedian Stephen Colbert’s “The Late Show,” citing financial reasons, just days after Colbert accused Paramount of paying Trump a “big fat bribe.” The final episode of the show aired in May.
Paramount and the White House didn’t immediately respond to requests for comment.
Technologies
Trump expresses no remorse over initiating Iran conflict as U.S. intensifies economic sanctions
President Trump expressed no regrets over starting the Iran war, claiming he would act again despite election impacts, while the U.S. increases economic sanctions on Iran.
President Donald Trump stated that he has no regrets regarding the initiation of the Iran war, asserting that he would repeat the same actions if given the chance. In an interview with Fox News’ Laura Ingraham on Thursday, Trump mentioned that he would have proceeded with the attack on Iran regardless of the consequences for the midterm elections. Ingraham suggested that without the Iran conflict, the midterms would have been a victory, to which Trump responded that if Iran acquired a nuclear weapon, they would use it. Trump further added that a nuclear-armed Iran would eliminate Israel and the Middle East, and begin attacking U.S. cities. These remarks occur as markets anticipate a prolonged Iran war, following a Wall Street Journal report indicating that senior White House advisors explored with Trump the potential for the conflict to extend past his current term. Trump has claimed that the war will conclude right after the midterm elections, leading to a drop in oil and gas prices, reinforcing his repeated assertions that the conflict will end shortly. In distinct comments to NewsNation on Thursday, Trump refuted reports of damage to U.S. assets, after Iran asserted that it struck several U.S. fighter jets at a base in Jordan. When questioned about the reports, Trump said, ‘No damage. No nothing.’ Regarding economic pressure, Washington is persisting in efforts to isolate Iran economically, with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announcing sanctions against a major bank scheduled for next week. Bessent stated on ‘Real America’s Voice’ that the sanctions would be implemented on Monday to commemorate the fallen citizens of 9/11, urging to watch for updates. Bessent mentioned that the administration has sanctioned and shut down the Dubai branches of Egypt’s second-largest bank, alleging that it provided Iran with $1.8 billion. He also noted that the 30th-largest Turkish bank, which had been funding Iran, was sanctioned, but did not identify it. Last week, the U.S. imposed sanctions on the Turkey-based Golden Global Yatirim Bankasi Anonim Sirketi, along with its subsidiaries. In the NewsNation interview, Trump was questioned about how Iran could withstand the current economic pressure. Trump responded, ‘I don’t know if they can hold out, but it will be settled after the elections, or perhaps sooner, but definitely right after the election.’ Correction: This article has been revised to accurately reflect Bessent’s statement that the 30th largest Turkish bank was sanctioned; an earlier version incorrectly stated the bank’s ranking.
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