Technologies

Does Next Week’s Fed Meeting Matter for Mortgage Rates? Yes and No

Homebuyers are still waiting on lower mortgage rates as the Fed looks to push off interest rate cuts.

If you followed the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decisions last year, you might have been puzzled: The Fed’s three interest rate cuts didn’t translate into cheaper mortgages. In fact, the average rate for a 30-year fixed home loan has hovered around 6.8% since late fall.

On Wednesday, the central bank is expected to extend a pause on interest rate cuts for a fourth consecutive time this year. Though mortgage rates could see some volatility, many economists expect them to stay somewhat flat until there’s a drastic change in the economic picture.

Rates will stay in the 6.75% to 7.25% range unless the Fed signals multiple cuts soon and backs it up with data, said Nicole Rueth, of the Rueth Team with Movement Mortgage. «Homebuyers waiting on rates to drop drastically might be disappointed,» Rueth said.

The relationship between the Fed’s interest rate decisions and home loan rates isn’t direct or immediate. Often, what the central bank says about future plans can move the market more than its actual actions. Mortgage rates are driven by the bond market, investor expectations and a host of other economic factors.

«Mortgage rates move on expectations, not announcements,» said Rueth.

All eyes will be on Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s post-meeting remarks. If Powell signals concerns about lingering inflation or the chance of fewer cuts, bond yields and mortgage rates are likely to climb. If he expresses optimism about inflation being under control and hints at ongoing policy easing, mortgage rates could dip.

«It’s most often the case that longer-term interest rates begin to decline before the Fed cuts rates,» said Keith Gumbinger, vice president at HSH.com.

Here’s what you need to know about how the government’s interest rate policy influences your home loan.

What is the Federal Reserve’s relationship to mortgage rates?

The Fed sets and oversees US monetary policy under a dual mandate to maintain price stability and maximum employment. It does this largely by adjusting the federal funds rate, the rate at which banks borrow and lend their money.

When the economy weakens and unemployment rises, the Fed lowers interest rates to encourage spending and propel growth, as it did during the COVID-19 pandemic.

It does the opposite when inflation is high. For example, the Fed raised its benchmark interest rate by more than five percentage points between early 2022 and mid-2023 to slow price growth by curbing consumer borrowing and spending.

Changes in the cost of borrowing set off a slow chain reaction that eventually affects mortgage rates and the housing market, as banks pass along the Fed’s rate hikes or cuts to consumers through longer-term loans, including home loans.

Yet, because mortgage rates respond to several economic factors, it’s not uncommon for the federal funds rate and mortgage rates to move in different directions for some time.

Why is the Fed postponing interest rate cuts?

After making three interest rate cuts in 2024, the Fed is now in a holding pattern. With President Donald Trump’s unpredictable tariff campaign, immigration policies and federal cutbacks threatening to drive up prices and drag on growth, economists say the central bank has good reason to pause.

«The Federal Reserve is in one of the trickiest spots in recent economic history,» said Ali Wolf, Zonda and NewHomeSource chief economist.

Lowering interest rates could allow inflation to surge, which is bad for mortgage rates. Keeping rates high, however, increases the risk of a job-loss recession that would cause widespread financial hardship.

Recent data show inflation making slow but steady progress toward the Fed’s annual target rate of 2%. But given the uncertainty surrounding Trump’s economic agenda, the central bank isn’t in a hurry to lower borrowing rates.

What is the forecast for Fed cuts and mortgage rates in 2025?

While experts now predict an interest rate cut in the fall, Powell remains noncommittal on any specific time frame.

«I’m eyeing September for the first rate cut, if inflation keeps cooling and the labor market weakens,» Rueth said.

However, tariffs are the big wildcard. Rueth said that if a trade war fuels inflation, rates could jump even without a Fed move. Political dysfunction, rising debt and global instability are also a recipe for rate volatility.

«The mortgage market reacts fast to uncertainty, and we’ve got no shortage of it this summer,» Rueth said.

On the flip side, if unemployment spikes — a real possibility given rising jobless claims — the Fed could be forced to implement interest rate cuts earlier than anticipated. In that case, mortgage rates should gradually ease, though not dramatically.

Most housing market forecasts, which already factor in at least two 0.25% Fed cuts, call for 30-year mortgage rates to stay above 6% throughout 2025.

«We might see rates settle into the low to mid-6% by year-end,» Rueth said. «But we’re not going back to 3%.»

What other factors affect mortgage rates?

Mortgage rates move around for many of the same reasons home prices do: supply, demand, inflation and even the employment rate.

Personal factors, such as a homebuyer’s credit score, down payment and home loan amount, also determine one’s individual mortgage rate. Different loan types and terms also have varying interest rates.

Policy changes: When the Fed adjusts the federal funds rate, it affects many aspects of the economy, including mortgage rates. The federal funds rate affects how much it costs banks to borrow money, which in turn affects what banks charge consumers to make a profit.

Inflation: Generally, when inflation is high, mortgage rates tend to be high. Because inflation chips away at purchasing power, lenders set higher interest rates on loans to make up for that loss and ensure a profit.

Supply and demand: When demand for mortgages is high, lenders tend to raise interest rates. This is because they have only so much capital to lend in the form of home loans. Conversely, when demand for mortgages is low, lenders tend to slash interest rates to attract borrowers.

Bond market activity: Mortgage lenders peg fixed interest rates, like fixed-rate mortgages, to bond rates. Mortgage bonds, also called mortgage-backed securities, are bundles of mortgages sold to investors and are closely tied to the 10-year Treasury. When bond interest rates are high, the bond has less value on the market where investors buy and sell securities, causing mortgage interest rates to go up.

Other key indicators: Employment patterns and other aspects of the economy that affect investor confidence and consumer spending and borrowing also influence mortgage rates. For instance, a strong jobs report and a robust economy could indicate greater demand for housing, which can put upward pressure on mortgage rates. When the economy slows and unemployment is high, mortgage rates tend to be lower.

Read more: Fact Check: Trump Doesn’t Have the Power to Force Lower Interest Rates

Is now a good time to get a mortgage?

Even though timing is everything in the mortgage market, you can’t control what the Fed does. «Forecasting interest rates is nearly impossible in today’s market,» said Wolf.

Regardless of the economy, the most important thing when shopping for a mortgage is to make sure you can comfortably afford your monthly payments.

More homebuying advice

Technologies

Nintendo’s Pokemon Legends: Z-A Is a Hit. Just Ask My Kid

Pokemon Legends: Z-A has sucked my family in, and I can’t get my Switch controller back from my son.

I’d love to tell you all about Pokemon Legends: Z-A, arriving this week, and what it’s been like to play on the Nintendo Switch 2. I can mostly do that — but for most of the past five days, it hasn’t really been me playing. What started as co-playing together quickly turned into my kid taking over completely as he got hooked. And honestly, I’d say that’s a good sign.

Nintendo makes a lot of Pokemon games, too many for me to keep track of. But Legends Z-A is the first that’s Switch 2-optimized, although you can play on original Switches, too. I can’t tell you what that’s like, though — my early review access limited me to playing Pokemon Legends: Z-A on the Switch 2 only at home. I was doubtful about how much a city-based game would truly feel like a must-have experience, but so far it’s already become one of my favorite Pokemon games ever.

I’ll let my son tell you. He’s gotten deep into the trading card game and has played most of the recent Pokemon titles over the past year, and he says this is his favorite so far. When I asked him why, he said it’s because the game completely rethinks how battles work. The quick, real-time system feels more immediate and far less sluggish than in past Pokemon games. Plus, he’s loving the story… and honestly, so am I.

A city full of surprises

My son loves the «peculiar» storyline, the fast-paced battles (which he now wants in every Pokemon game) and the constant sense of surprise while exploring Lumiose City.

All of Pokemon Legends: Z-A (at least from what I’ve seen in my 10-plus hours so far) takes place entirely within Lumiose City — a Paris-like metropolis where the CEO of a company called Quasartico Inc. is planning to rebuild everything into a new world where Pokemon and humans can better coexist. The setup reminded me of the Detective Pikachu movie during my demo a few weeks ago, and it turns out my instincts were right.

Pokemon roam in wild zones within the city, occasionally spilling into urban areas, while mysterious rogue «Mega Evolution» Pokemon have begun appearing and threatening the city’s calm. There’s clearly a deeper mystery at play, and while I’m still uncovering it, I won’t spoil anything here.

The game seems to mostly involve a journey to level up in rank from Z to A by battling various Pokemon trainers, but that’s not the whole story. There’s a group of friends you hang out with at a local hotel, along with research missions you have to carry out. Side quests are everywhere. The city, though it can feel a bit sparse at times, stretches all the way up to its rooftops, where all sorts of hidden spots are waiting to be discovered. It feels like a living maze, and one I’m still navigating.

And the city’s always changing, too. Wild zones keep multiplying, and from day to night the city’s dynamics shift. Battles take place at night, with trainers gathering in new pop-up spots each time. It’s not as lively as I’d hoped — this isn’t Grand Theft Pokemon — but the cozy, vibrant world still makes me daydream about what a real-life Universal Pokemon theme park could someday look like.

The Pokemon shine

I keep reminding myself to take extra time to discover and level up my Pokemon. At least that’s what my son’s telling me to do. He loves how many Pokemon can become Mega Evolved in this game, and how much fun the battle moves are to pull off. I’m happy he’s happy. I thought I’d get lost in the RPG aspects of the game, but I think the real-time Pokemon battles put me in a looser state of mind, more able to explore and not feel locked down into systems and rulesets. Swapping Pokemon battle moves and reassigning them to buttons is easy, too.

The stronger focus on trainer battles — and the sheer variety of Pokemon capable of mega evolving — gives the game more of that classic, Pokemon-centered energy than Pokemon Legends: Arceus ever did. I found myself more excited to see how different Pokemon looked and behaved than to uncover new realms to explore. After all, for all of Lumiose City’s secrets, you’re spending a lot more time roaming one massive location than in any other Pokemon game I can remember. Thankfully, the visual upgrades on the Switch 2 make those Pokemon look fantastic in battle.

I do want to spend more time in Lumiose City, though, and can’t help but wonder if this is a glimpse of how all Pokemon games will keep evolving. It’s hard to say, since Legends games like Z-A and Arceus have been more experimental than the rest of the series. But, like Arceus, Z-A is now one of my favorite Pokemon games on Switch. And on Switch 2, it plays smoother and feels better than any Pokemon game ever has before.

Technologies

iPhone 17 Preorders Spike and Overall Phone Sales Aren’t Slowing Down Despite Tariffs

Global smartphone shipments saw a notable increase in the third quarter of 2025. Plus, preorders for Apple’s new iPhone 17 beat out the iPhone 16.

Despite tariffs and market uncertainty, global smartphone shipments increased 2.6% in the third quarter of 2025, compared to the same time last year, according to the International Data Corporation. Additionally, preorders for the iPhone 17, which launched last month, outpaced last year’s iPhone 16.

These increased sales include premium phones like the latest iPhones and Samsung foldables, suggesting yet again that pricier phones still sell in periods of economic strain. It’s a remarkable achievement, says IDC senior research director Nabila Popal, citing shrewd financing options as the reason people keep buying these high-end phones, which cost anywhere from $800 to nearly $2,000.

«[Phone makers] have mastered the art of innovation not only in hardware and software to entice upgrades but also in removing purchase friction. They have flawlessly combined cutting-edge devices with innovative financing models and aggressive trade-in programs that make the upgrading decision a ‘no-brainer’ for consumers,» Popal said in an IDC press release.

Apple sold 58.6 million iPhones this quarter, an increase of 2.9% over the same period in 2024, with more preorders for the iPhone 17 series than its predecessor. But Samsung wasn’t far behind, with its Galaxy Z Fold 7 and Galaxy Z Flip 7 selling better than all of the company’s prior foldables. The company still reigns atop the phone market with 61.4 million phones sold, representing 19% of the market in the third quarter of this year — an increase of 6.3% from the same period last year. Meanwhile, Apple lands slightly behind Samsung with 18.2% market share this quarter.

The other phone makers trailing Apple and Samsung are, in order: Xiaomi, with 13.5% of the market; Transsion, with 9%; and Vivo with 8.9%. The remaining companies in the phones industry, from Chinese stalwarts like Oppo and Honor to Motorola and Google, make up the remaining 31.4% of the market for the quarter. All told, 322.7 million phones were sold, up from 314.6 million in the third quarter of 2024, according to IDC.

IDC’s findings for the third quarter continue the small but steady growth of phone sales over the year, including a modest 1% increase in the preceding three months — which includes the April deadline when President Donald Trump unveiled sweeping tariffs. In the second quarter, IDC cited midrange devices like Samsung’s Galaxy A36 and other phones that started incorporating AI. But even persistent tariffs haven’t slowed down people’s appetites for pricier phones in the third quarter.

Technologies

Today’s NYT Mini Crossword Answers for Tuesday, Oct. 14

Here are the answers for The New York Times Mini Crossword for Oct. 14.

Looking for the most recent Mini Crossword answer? Click here for today’s Mini Crossword hints, as well as our daily answers and hints for The New York Times Wordle, Strands, Connections and Connections: Sports Edition puzzles.

Today’s Mini Crossword has an odd vertical shape, with an extra Across clue, and only four Down clues. The clues are not terribly difficult, but one or two could be tricky. Read on if you need the answers. And if you could use some hints and guidance for daily solving, check out our Mini Crossword tips.

If you’re looking for today’s Wordle, Connections, Connections: Sports Edition and Strands answers, you can visit CNET’s NYT puzzle hints page.

Read more: Tips and Tricks for Solving The New York Times Mini Crossword

Let’s get to those Mini Crossword clues and answers.