Technologies

Does Next Week’s Fed Meeting Matter for Mortgage Rates? Yes and No

Homebuyers are still waiting on lower mortgage rates as the Fed looks to push off interest rate cuts.

If you followed the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decisions last year, you might have been puzzled: The Fed’s three interest rate cuts didn’t translate into cheaper mortgages. In fact, the average rate for a 30-year fixed home loan has hovered around 6.8% since late fall.

On Wednesday, the central bank is expected to extend a pause on interest rate cuts for a fourth consecutive time this year. Though mortgage rates could see some volatility, many economists expect them to stay somewhat flat until there’s a drastic change in the economic picture.

Rates will stay in the 6.75% to 7.25% range unless the Fed signals multiple cuts soon and backs it up with data, said Nicole Rueth, of the Rueth Team with Movement Mortgage. «Homebuyers waiting on rates to drop drastically might be disappointed,» Rueth said.

The relationship between the Fed’s interest rate decisions and home loan rates isn’t direct or immediate. Often, what the central bank says about future plans can move the market more than its actual actions. Mortgage rates are driven by the bond market, investor expectations and a host of other economic factors.

«Mortgage rates move on expectations, not announcements,» said Rueth.

All eyes will be on Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s post-meeting remarks. If Powell signals concerns about lingering inflation or the chance of fewer cuts, bond yields and mortgage rates are likely to climb. If he expresses optimism about inflation being under control and hints at ongoing policy easing, mortgage rates could dip.

«It’s most often the case that longer-term interest rates begin to decline before the Fed cuts rates,» said Keith Gumbinger, vice president at HSH.com.

Here’s what you need to know about how the government’s interest rate policy influences your home loan.

What is the Federal Reserve’s relationship to mortgage rates?

The Fed sets and oversees US monetary policy under a dual mandate to maintain price stability and maximum employment. It does this largely by adjusting the federal funds rate, the rate at which banks borrow and lend their money.

When the economy weakens and unemployment rises, the Fed lowers interest rates to encourage spending and propel growth, as it did during the COVID-19 pandemic.

It does the opposite when inflation is high. For example, the Fed raised its benchmark interest rate by more than five percentage points between early 2022 and mid-2023 to slow price growth by curbing consumer borrowing and spending.

Changes in the cost of borrowing set off a slow chain reaction that eventually affects mortgage rates and the housing market, as banks pass along the Fed’s rate hikes or cuts to consumers through longer-term loans, including home loans.

Yet, because mortgage rates respond to several economic factors, it’s not uncommon for the federal funds rate and mortgage rates to move in different directions for some time.

Why is the Fed postponing interest rate cuts?

After making three interest rate cuts in 2024, the Fed is now in a holding pattern. With President Donald Trump’s unpredictable tariff campaign, immigration policies and federal cutbacks threatening to drive up prices and drag on growth, economists say the central bank has good reason to pause.

«The Federal Reserve is in one of the trickiest spots in recent economic history,» said Ali Wolf, Zonda and NewHomeSource chief economist.

Lowering interest rates could allow inflation to surge, which is bad for mortgage rates. Keeping rates high, however, increases the risk of a job-loss recession that would cause widespread financial hardship.

Recent data show inflation making slow but steady progress toward the Fed’s annual target rate of 2%. But given the uncertainty surrounding Trump’s economic agenda, the central bank isn’t in a hurry to lower borrowing rates.

What is the forecast for Fed cuts and mortgage rates in 2025?

While experts now predict an interest rate cut in the fall, Powell remains noncommittal on any specific time frame.

«I’m eyeing September for the first rate cut, if inflation keeps cooling and the labor market weakens,» Rueth said.

However, tariffs are the big wildcard. Rueth said that if a trade war fuels inflation, rates could jump even without a Fed move. Political dysfunction, rising debt and global instability are also a recipe for rate volatility.

«The mortgage market reacts fast to uncertainty, and we’ve got no shortage of it this summer,» Rueth said.

On the flip side, if unemployment spikes — a real possibility given rising jobless claims — the Fed could be forced to implement interest rate cuts earlier than anticipated. In that case, mortgage rates should gradually ease, though not dramatically.

Most housing market forecasts, which already factor in at least two 0.25% Fed cuts, call for 30-year mortgage rates to stay above 6% throughout 2025.

«We might see rates settle into the low to mid-6% by year-end,» Rueth said. «But we’re not going back to 3%.»

What other factors affect mortgage rates?

Mortgage rates move around for many of the same reasons home prices do: supply, demand, inflation and even the employment rate.

Personal factors, such as a homebuyer’s credit score, down payment and home loan amount, also determine one’s individual mortgage rate. Different loan types and terms also have varying interest rates.

Policy changes: When the Fed adjusts the federal funds rate, it affects many aspects of the economy, including mortgage rates. The federal funds rate affects how much it costs banks to borrow money, which in turn affects what banks charge consumers to make a profit.

Inflation: Generally, when inflation is high, mortgage rates tend to be high. Because inflation chips away at purchasing power, lenders set higher interest rates on loans to make up for that loss and ensure a profit.

Supply and demand: When demand for mortgages is high, lenders tend to raise interest rates. This is because they have only so much capital to lend in the form of home loans. Conversely, when demand for mortgages is low, lenders tend to slash interest rates to attract borrowers.

Bond market activity: Mortgage lenders peg fixed interest rates, like fixed-rate mortgages, to bond rates. Mortgage bonds, also called mortgage-backed securities, are bundles of mortgages sold to investors and are closely tied to the 10-year Treasury. When bond interest rates are high, the bond has less value on the market where investors buy and sell securities, causing mortgage interest rates to go up.

Other key indicators: Employment patterns and other aspects of the economy that affect investor confidence and consumer spending and borrowing also influence mortgage rates. For instance, a strong jobs report and a robust economy could indicate greater demand for housing, which can put upward pressure on mortgage rates. When the economy slows and unemployment is high, mortgage rates tend to be lower.

Read more: Fact Check: Trump Doesn’t Have the Power to Force Lower Interest Rates

Is now a good time to get a mortgage?

Even though timing is everything in the mortgage market, you can’t control what the Fed does. «Forecasting interest rates is nearly impossible in today’s market,» said Wolf.

Regardless of the economy, the most important thing when shopping for a mortgage is to make sure you can comfortably afford your monthly payments.

More homebuying advice

Technologies

The Agony and the Ecstasy of Endless Gaming Crossovers

In navigating my own love-hate relationship with this phenomenon, I talked to some of the devs behind them to get a better sense of how these crossovers work and why companies pursue them.

When my friends want to play Magic: The Gathering, I wade through my two-dozen or so decks built for Commander — the card game’s casual, multiplayer format. I might choose the deck built around Elenda, the Dusk Rose, a vampire saint who can create legions of vampires. Maybe I’ll take my Narset, Enlightened master deck, which lets me cast powerful spells for free when she attacks. Both Elenda and Narset are original characters from Magic: The Gathering.

Or maybe I’ll grab my Lightning, Army of One deck, constructed around the Final Fantasy 13 character, so I can attack people for absurdly high amounts of damage. Maybe my Godzilla deck will engage in glorious combat against my friends’ decks led by characters from Dracula or Warhammer 40K. Would Eowyn from Lord of the Rings be a better match-up against the forces of the Imperium?

It’s a double-edged sword, this impulse toward crossovers. And it’s happening in games far beyond Magic: The Gathering.

Overwatch featured skins from Persona 5 in September, Halo armor and weapons showed up in Helldivers 2, and edgy looter shooter Borderlands 4 is showing up in… golf game PGA Tour 2K25. The crossover crown lies eternally with Fortnite, thanks to its never-ending influx of skins from games, movies, comics and real-life celebrities — leading players using the Sabrina Carpenter skin to stop shooting each other and, say, hold impromptu concerts instead.

When the elements fit each other are handled with care, it’s a fun way for fans to engage with multiple interests simultaneously. But when it feels carelessly thrown-together or when the elements don’t mesh, it can feel like a cash grab that hollows out the original property. And what works for one player might feel egregious or immersion-breaking to another.

«Am I the problem?» I ask myself, as I work on a fourth Magic deck built around a Final Fantasy character, after spending hundreds of dollars on cards and accessories from the set.

I do realize that the money I spent on the release event and weekly drafts screamed to Hasbro, «It’s working!» At the same time, playing with cards from that Final Fantasy set was also the most fun I’ve had with Magic in several years.

Corporations betting big on brand crossovers feels like the unavoidable consequence of a world in which players look more and more for customization and ways to show off their personalities and interests, which dovetails with companies looking for lucrative ways to attract new players and increase revenue in ongoing games. Is other media filtering into popular games about the joy of including familiar faces, or does it turn characters into digital bumper stickers, starved of their identity from their original context?

The answer, like it or not, is both.

Money is a big part of the motivation, but expanding reach and offering customization also factor in

Blending different properties together generally requires an intense collaboration between the property owners and the game inviting the crossover. So what makes these gaming collaborations worth it for those parties?

There’s a financial incentive, to be certain, as Hasbro has made astonishingly clear. In its second-quarter 2025 earnings call, CEO Chris Cox noted that Magic: The Gathering’s Final Fantasy set made $200 million in revenue in one day, while it took the Lord of the Rings set six months to hit that milestone. To put those two collaborations in the context of original Magic: The Gathering sets, the bestselling Magic set before Lord of the Rings was Modern Horizons, which made $200 million over two years.

Admittedly, $200 million in 24 hours is performance that Magic: The Gathering will likely struggle to replicate, even with the overabundance of outside properties coming next year: Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles, The Hobbit, Star Trek and Marvel. Still, Cox said the company feels good about the collaborations set to launch next year in terms of pleasing players and bringing in revenue. And Final Fantasy ultimately points to the financial power of a good gaming crossover, one where the properties are handled thoughtfully and intentionally (even if some of that intention is making the collaboration more collectible).

To better understand how and why these crossovers happen, I talked with some of the people powering these gaming collaborations.

There were «a lot of clues» both internally and externally that Magic could support these kinds of crossovers in the game, said Aaron Forsythe, Magic: The Gathering’s vice president of research and development.

Sets like Lord of the Rings and Final Fantasy can also help funnel new players into a game that has been around since 1993.

«With Final Fantasy, we have seen a marked increase in play participation, especially among players who haven’t previously participated in our Organized Play programs,» said Rebecca Shepard, the vice president of franchise for Magic: The Gathering. That participation also extends after the launch of sets based on the other properties, which Magic brands Universes Beyond.

She noted that Universes Beyond releases also lead to increased interest in older products, demonstrating the crossovers’ ability to drive interest in the game’s original creations.

Magic’s designers have spent decades creating multiple in-game worlds or «planes» with their own lore, characters and mechanics. To a certain degree, crossovers are baked into its premise.

But what about something with a considerably smaller scope, like the hero shooter Overwatch 2? The team-based game is set in nearish future Earth, where other Blizzard games like Diablo and Starcraft are minimal parts of the world as references and outfits. But aside from a small Lego crossover, other external properties were mostly only winked at… until the game introduced skins from the popular manga and anime One-Punch Man back in 2023.

The game’s collaborations started out as infrequent events, but now show up roughly every season.

The Overwatch team was nervous for its first collaboration and took a cautious approach, said Aimee Dennett, Overwatch’s associate director of product management. Devs wanted to ensure that heroes were still recognizably Overwatch characters while also maintaining the integrity of the game’s lore. The solution was described as «our characters are cosplaying,» meaning that the Overwatch heroes maintain the iconic parts of their visual identity, while incorporating elements that are recognizable as the characters from the crossover properties.

There are also internal motivations for these opportunities.

«We’ve found that it has such a positive effect on the team,» said Overwatch’s Art Director, Dion Rogers. People who work on the game are also fans of these properties, and the opportunity to design those crossovers can be a creative spark for the developers.

Fortnite didn’t start the party, but it did invite basically everyone

Fortnite is the de facto example of crossovers in gaming. It represents an astonishing evolution of a concept that kicked off decades ago.

Video game publishers were firmly protective of their properties to keep their games unique, but gaming website Giant Bomb asserts that crossovers started in earnest with 1992’s Battle Soccer, where Godzilla could take the pitch against giant mech Gundams and superheroes from Japanese TV. A few years later, Marvel’s X-Men faced off against Street Fighter characters in a move that would eventually spawn the Marvel vs. Capcom series of fighting games.

Crossovers ramped up in the 2000s with Sonic the Hedgehog and Solid Snake as the first two characters not owned by Nintendo to show up in Smash Bros. Brawl, a few years before horror movie villain Freddy Krueger first appeared in a Mortal Kombat game. Thematically, these all make some sense — but Fortnite took crossovers to another level.

The crossovers started with the Infinity Gauntlet limited-time mode, where players could transform into Thanos, the villain of the 2019 film Avengers: Infinity War. It was quickly followed by the first Marvel-themed skins for Black Widow and Star-Lord that any player could wear. That kicked off a wave of Fortnite crossovers that would grow beyond Marvel to also include DC Comics, Star Wars, celebrities and various other games.

More have followed in Fortnite’s wake. The jump to include characters from other media besides video games has proven popular, with games like Mortal Kombat bringing in the villainous superhuman Homelander from The Boys, and the asymmetrical PVP horror game Dead by Daylight leaning heavily into killers and survivors from various games and movies — and also Nicolas Cage as himself, delivering some truly amazing voice lines.

Still, when it comes to bringing in everything from everywhere, nothing tops Fortnite, where crossover events feel less like guest stars and more like the first stop for major franchise promotion. And the cumulative results are, for lack of a better word, bonkers. Now a squad of Ariana Grande, Billie Eilish, Lady Gaga and Sabrina Carpenter can face off against a squad made up of Darth Vader, the Joker, Thanos and Mortal Kombat’s Sub-Zero… and then perform *NSYNC’s Bye Bye Bye dance on the villains’ corpses.

Epic Games, the makers of Fortnite, declined to comment for this story.

Convenience and customization… at a cost

While crossovers with other properties help bring revenue and new players into games, they also risk alienating players whose primary interest is in their games’ original concepts and who may feel the crossovers move the game away from its identity.

«We listen and learn more than folks realize but at the same time, our goal of making Magic for everyone — because it is — can also frustrate our existing players,» said Shepard in response to a question about the feedback to Universes Beyond and the seemingly polarized responses online.

You can see that frustration in videos from prominent Magic creators, with titles like «The Problems With Universes Beyond — Even if You’re NOT a Hater» and «Half of Magic: The Gathering Will Not Be Magic: The Gathering.» The discussions in those videos touch on multiple elements, but center around the proportion of and execution of Universes Beyond sets and how those sets do or don’t gel with the rest of the game.

That tension exists with most gaming crossovers. I wasn’t initially a fan of Overwatch’s move into collaborations. For me, the image of Doomfist in a yellow suit and flowing cape cheapened a character who’s supposed to be a surly big bad in the Overwatch universe. To me, it felt tonally mismatched with his identity, and I feared Overwatch feeling less like Overwatch as a result.

But the response I saw was largely positive. A change being celebrated doesn’t mean it’s necessarily good for the game, nor does outcry mean a change is bad. But there were clearly people who wanted the customization and expression of anime skins, highlighting the tension inherent in gaming collaborations like this.

Magic’s Aaron Forsythe acknowledged the competing interests, saying, «Players that have been with us for a while don’t feel the need for a change of this magnitude, and I appreciate how this hits them. But we’re doing this both because we want to grow the game — and we are — and because we think it’s another really fun way to enjoy it.»

For longstanding fans who have played the game for years, perhaps even decades, it may feel like the resources for the game’s original ideas are being diverted to fuel crossovers.

There are degrees, though. In the case of Magic: The Gathering, one-time Secret Lair drops like Sonic the Hedgehog that mostly show up in casual multiplayer formats may not seem as disruptive. But over the course of next year, Magic will release four more sets based on outside properties, bringing the total to seven such sets in two years. More than any individual card or set, that density of outside properties might feel particularly unwelcome, contributing to the feeling that it’s just Fortnite now.

Everyone is here (and here to stay)

I think a lot of the response to crossovers comes down to two things: how well the concept fits and how good the execution is. Fortnite itself has become a conglomeration of various game types — from Battle Royale to Lego to Ballistic, festivals and Creative modes — so the game featuring skins from all kinds of movies, games and celebrities sort of fits into that «everything for everyone» idea.

Something like Dead by Daylight is an example of using crossovers with a narrower focus, incorporating horror icons that fit its gameplay and lore. Resident Evil characters trying to escape from Halloween’s Michael Myers doesn’t make total sense, but there’s enough of an internal logic in the genres of slasher films and survival horror games for it to work.

And, despite my initial reservations about Overwatch’s collaborations, I was immediately enthralled when I saw Kiriko’s Suki skin from Avatar: The Last Airbender. In addition to giving me a new outlet for my favorite character from the show, it just fit the visual identity and the concept of the Overwatch hero, a protector in her own right.

The people behind the games acknowledge how much that matters. «If we don’t do this right,» Overwatch’s Rogers told me, «the fans will call us out.» Players have their own ideas of what fits and what doesn’t, and they aren’t shy about voicing those feelings. But Rogers said that getting it right instead helps maintain the identity of the game’s heroes.

Similarly, Magic’s Shepard said one step in the process of evaluating potential crossovers is feeling out whether it feels like «an authentic relationship» for the game and its players. The challenge, however, is that each player’s mileage will vary when it comes to that authenticity.

There’s no putting these crossovers back in the box, for better and worse. We’ll continue to have more options to play as our favorite characters across a variety of games. Right now, if I wanted to, I could fire up Street Fighter 6 and play a game as Chun-Li in the context of her original series. I could then swap over to Fortnite and run around sniping people as Chun-Li before logging into Overwatch and playing as Juno in her Chun-Li skin, healing people with a Martian mediblaster. And then over the weekend, I could play Magic: The Gathering with my friends and pull out a deck built around a Chun-Li character card.

For Chun-Li superfans, that’s great. At the same time, my Magic opponents may be sick of playing against characters from Stranger Things, Jurassic Park and Marvel, which might break the immersion of the game for them.

The demand is there and the complaints are valid. Companies will follow the money. But each game’s developers have to find their own way of squaring the crossover — justifying (or not) how another creative world collides with theirs.

For Overwatch’s Dennett, as the game grows and changes, so does the team’s philosophy about collaborations — because pushing the boundaries of what’s possible in the hero shooter sparks the imaginations of its player base.

«It’s sort of a self-reinforcing cycle, where our players grow and change so much, and so do the types of collaborations, and the types of collaborations change, which grows and changes our players.»

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Today’s NYT Mini Crossword Answers for Friday, Nov. 21

Here are the answers for The New York Times Mini Crossword for Nov. 21.

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