Technologies

Does Next Week’s Fed Meeting Matter for Mortgage Rates? Yes and No

Homebuyers are still waiting on lower mortgage rates as the Fed looks to push off interest rate cuts.

If you followed the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decisions last year, you might have been puzzled: The Fed’s three interest rate cuts didn’t translate into cheaper mortgages. In fact, the average rate for a 30-year fixed home loan has hovered around 6.8% since late fall.

On Wednesday, the central bank is expected to extend a pause on interest rate cuts for a fourth consecutive time this year. Though mortgage rates could see some volatility, many economists expect them to stay somewhat flat until there’s a drastic change in the economic picture.

Rates will stay in the 6.75% to 7.25% range unless the Fed signals multiple cuts soon and backs it up with data, said Nicole Rueth, of the Rueth Team with Movement Mortgage. «Homebuyers waiting on rates to drop drastically might be disappointed,» Rueth said.

The relationship between the Fed’s interest rate decisions and home loan rates isn’t direct or immediate. Often, what the central bank says about future plans can move the market more than its actual actions. Mortgage rates are driven by the bond market, investor expectations and a host of other economic factors.

«Mortgage rates move on expectations, not announcements,» said Rueth.

All eyes will be on Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s post-meeting remarks. If Powell signals concerns about lingering inflation or the chance of fewer cuts, bond yields and mortgage rates are likely to climb. If he expresses optimism about inflation being under control and hints at ongoing policy easing, mortgage rates could dip.

«It’s most often the case that longer-term interest rates begin to decline before the Fed cuts rates,» said Keith Gumbinger, vice president at HSH.com.

Here’s what you need to know about how the government’s interest rate policy influences your home loan.

What is the Federal Reserve’s relationship to mortgage rates?

The Fed sets and oversees US monetary policy under a dual mandate to maintain price stability and maximum employment. It does this largely by adjusting the federal funds rate, the rate at which banks borrow and lend their money.

When the economy weakens and unemployment rises, the Fed lowers interest rates to encourage spending and propel growth, as it did during the COVID-19 pandemic.

It does the opposite when inflation is high. For example, the Fed raised its benchmark interest rate by more than five percentage points between early 2022 and mid-2023 to slow price growth by curbing consumer borrowing and spending.

Changes in the cost of borrowing set off a slow chain reaction that eventually affects mortgage rates and the housing market, as banks pass along the Fed’s rate hikes or cuts to consumers through longer-term loans, including home loans.

Yet, because mortgage rates respond to several economic factors, it’s not uncommon for the federal funds rate and mortgage rates to move in different directions for some time.

Why is the Fed postponing interest rate cuts?

After making three interest rate cuts in 2024, the Fed is now in a holding pattern. With President Donald Trump’s unpredictable tariff campaign, immigration policies and federal cutbacks threatening to drive up prices and drag on growth, economists say the central bank has good reason to pause.

«The Federal Reserve is in one of the trickiest spots in recent economic history,» said Ali Wolf, Zonda and NewHomeSource chief economist.

Lowering interest rates could allow inflation to surge, which is bad for mortgage rates. Keeping rates high, however, increases the risk of a job-loss recession that would cause widespread financial hardship.

Recent data show inflation making slow but steady progress toward the Fed’s annual target rate of 2%. But given the uncertainty surrounding Trump’s economic agenda, the central bank isn’t in a hurry to lower borrowing rates.

What is the forecast for Fed cuts and mortgage rates in 2025?

While experts now predict an interest rate cut in the fall, Powell remains noncommittal on any specific time frame.

«I’m eyeing September for the first rate cut, if inflation keeps cooling and the labor market weakens,» Rueth said.

However, tariffs are the big wildcard. Rueth said that if a trade war fuels inflation, rates could jump even without a Fed move. Political dysfunction, rising debt and global instability are also a recipe for rate volatility.

«The mortgage market reacts fast to uncertainty, and we’ve got no shortage of it this summer,» Rueth said.

On the flip side, if unemployment spikes — a real possibility given rising jobless claims — the Fed could be forced to implement interest rate cuts earlier than anticipated. In that case, mortgage rates should gradually ease, though not dramatically.

Most housing market forecasts, which already factor in at least two 0.25% Fed cuts, call for 30-year mortgage rates to stay above 6% throughout 2025.

«We might see rates settle into the low to mid-6% by year-end,» Rueth said. «But we’re not going back to 3%.»

What other factors affect mortgage rates?

Mortgage rates move around for many of the same reasons home prices do: supply, demand, inflation and even the employment rate.

Personal factors, such as a homebuyer’s credit score, down payment and home loan amount, also determine one’s individual mortgage rate. Different loan types and terms also have varying interest rates.

Policy changes: When the Fed adjusts the federal funds rate, it affects many aspects of the economy, including mortgage rates. The federal funds rate affects how much it costs banks to borrow money, which in turn affects what banks charge consumers to make a profit.

Inflation: Generally, when inflation is high, mortgage rates tend to be high. Because inflation chips away at purchasing power, lenders set higher interest rates on loans to make up for that loss and ensure a profit.

Supply and demand: When demand for mortgages is high, lenders tend to raise interest rates. This is because they have only so much capital to lend in the form of home loans. Conversely, when demand for mortgages is low, lenders tend to slash interest rates to attract borrowers.

Bond market activity: Mortgage lenders peg fixed interest rates, like fixed-rate mortgages, to bond rates. Mortgage bonds, also called mortgage-backed securities, are bundles of mortgages sold to investors and are closely tied to the 10-year Treasury. When bond interest rates are high, the bond has less value on the market where investors buy and sell securities, causing mortgage interest rates to go up.

Other key indicators: Employment patterns and other aspects of the economy that affect investor confidence and consumer spending and borrowing also influence mortgage rates. For instance, a strong jobs report and a robust economy could indicate greater demand for housing, which can put upward pressure on mortgage rates. When the economy slows and unemployment is high, mortgage rates tend to be lower.

Read more: Fact Check: Trump Doesn’t Have the Power to Force Lower Interest Rates

Is now a good time to get a mortgage?

Even though timing is everything in the mortgage market, you can’t control what the Fed does. «Forecasting interest rates is nearly impossible in today’s market,» said Wolf.

Regardless of the economy, the most important thing when shopping for a mortgage is to make sure you can comfortably afford your monthly payments.

More homebuying advice

Technologies

Today’s NYT Mini Crossword Answers for Saturday, March 14

Here are the answers for The New York Times Mini Crossword for March 14.

Looking for the most recent Mini Crossword answer? Click here for today’s Mini Crossword hints, as well as our daily answers and hints for The New York Times Wordle, Strands, Connections and Connections: Sports Edition puzzles.

Need some help with today’s Mini Crossword? It’s the extra-long Saturday version, and a few of the clues are tricky. Read on for all the answers. And if you could use some hints and guidance for daily solving, check out our Mini Crossword tips.

If you’re looking for today’s Wordle, Connections, Connections: Sports Edition and Strands answers, you can visit CNET’s NYT puzzle hints page.

Read more: Tips and Tricks for Solving The New York Times Mini Crossword

Let’s get to those Mini Crossword clues and answers.

Mini across clues and answers

1A clue: Book parts: Abbr.
Answer: PGS

4A clue: Silicon Valley company that operates a fleet of robotaxis
Answer: WAYMO

6A clue: To a much greater degree
Answer: WAYMORE

8A clue: Contents of a scuba diver’s tank
Answer: AIR

9A clue: South Korean automaker
Answer: KIA

10A clue: Stop on a train route
Answer: STATION

12A clue: Actress Merman of «Anything Goes»
Answer: ETHEL

13A clue: Find another purpose for
Answer: REUSE

Mini down clues and answers

1D clue: Employee’s hourly calculation
Answer: PAYRATE

2D clue: Workout spot
Answer: GYM

3D clue: «Great» mountains of Tennessee, familiarly
Answer: SMOKIES

4D clue: One giving you the dish?
Answer: WAITER

5D clue: Baltimore M.L.B. player
Answer: ORIOLE

6D clue: Used to be
Answer: WAS

7D clue: Suffix with Caesar or Euclid
Answer: EAN

11D clue: Night that NBC once aired «30 Rock» and «The Office»: Abbr.
Answer: THU

Technologies

AI Toys Can Pose Safety Concerns for Children, New Study Suggests Caution

When one child told the toy, «I love you,» it responded, «As a friendly reminder, please ensure interactions adhere to the guidelines provided.»

A new study from the University of Cambridge found that AI-enabled toys for young children can misinterpret emotional cues and are ineffective at supporting critical developmental play. The conclusions could be concerning for parents.

In one report examining how AI affects children in their early years, a chatbot-enabled toy struggled to recognize social cues during playtime. Researchers found that the toy did not effectively identify children’s emotions, raising alarm about how kids might interact with it.

The report recommends regulating AI toys for kids and requiring clear labeling of their capabilities and privacy policies. It also advises parents to keep these devices in shared spaces where kids can be monitored while playing.

The research behind the study had a limited number of participants, but was done in multiple parts: an online survey of 39 participants with kids in their earlier years, a focus group with nine participants who work with young children and an in-person workshop with 19 leaders and representatives from charities that work with early-years kids. That was followed by monitored playtime with 14 children and 11 parents or guardians with Gabbo, a chatbot-enabled toy from Curio Interactive.

Some findings indicated that the AI toy supported learning, particularly in language and communication skills. But the toy also misunderstood kids and sometimes responded inappropriately to emotional requests.

For instance, when one child told the toy, «I love you,» it responded, «As a friendly reminder, please ensure interactions adhere to the guidelines provided. Let me know how you would like to proceed,» according to the research.

Jenny Gibson, a professor of neurodiversity and developmental psychology at the Faculty of Education at Cambridge, who worked on the study, said that while parents may be excited about the educational benefits of new technology aimed at children, there are plenty of concerns.

Gibson posed overarching questions about the reason behind the tech.

«What would motivate [tech investors] to do the right thing by children … to put children ahead of profits? she said»

Gibson told CNET that while researchers are exploring the potential benefits of AI-based toys, risks remain.

«I would advise parents to take that seriously at this stage,» she said.

What’s next for AI toys

As more playthings are enabled with internet connectivity and AI features, these devices could become a major safety risk for children, especially if they replace real human connections or if interactions are not closely monitored.

Meanwhile, younger people are increasingly adopting chatbots such as ChatGPT, despite red flags. Multiple lawsuits against AI companies allege that AI companions or assistants can impact young people’s psychological safety, including some chatbots that have encouraged self-harm or negative self-image.

AI companies such as OpenAI and Google have responded by adding guardrails and restrictions for AI chatbots.

(Disclosure: Ziff Davis, CNET’s parent company, in 2025 filed a lawsuit against OpenAI, alleging it infringed Ziff Davis copyrights in training and operating its AI systems.)

Gibson said she was surprised by the enthusiasm some parents showed for AI toys. She was also alarmed by the lack of research on AI’s effects on young children, noting that companies making such products should work directly with children, parents, and child development experts.

«What’s missing in the process is that expertise of what is good for children in these kinds of interactions,» she said.

Curio Interactive, the company behind the Gabbo toy, was aware of the research as it was happening but was not directly involved, Gibson said. The toy was chosen because it’s directly marketed to young kids, and the company had an understandable privacy policy. Gibson said the company seemed supportive of the project.

A representative for Curio did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

Technologies

Two Lost ‘Doctor Who’ Episodes Found Intact in Waterlogged Collection

The 1960s episodes featuring the first Doctor William Hartnell will air in the UK in April.

Whovians, rejoice. The BBC is about to unlock a piece of Doctor Who history that even the TARDIS might have forgotten. Two lost episodes of Doctor Who, the iconic sci-fi series, will broadcast in April, the showrunner for the current season confirmed.

The two 1965 episodes, The Nightmare Begins and Devil’s Planet, were donated to the charitable trust Film Is Fabulous by the estate of an anonymous collector.

«The collector did recognize what he had, but how he acquired them has been lost to time,» Professor Justin Smith Leicester of De Montfort University, who led the recovery effort, told the broadcaster.

The researchers said that while most of the donor’s private collection was destroyed by water damage, the Doctor Who episodes were intact.

Doctor Who showrunner, Russell T Davies, celebrated the news on Instagram and said the episodes would air in the UK in April, though no US air date has been announced yet.

«Lost for 61 years! Best of all, these will be made available for FREE on the BBC iPlayer in April,» Davies wrote.

He expressed gratitude to Film Is Fabulous for finding the lost episodes and encouraged people to donate to the registered charity. «Maybe they’ll find more! As the Doctor says… ‘Daleks!'»

The episodes feature the first incarnation of the Doctor, played by William Hartnell, and a typical Dalek plot to take over Earth and the galaxy.

In the 1960s and 1970s, the BBC had a policy of destroying film or reusing videotapes, leading to dozens of episodes of Doctor Who and other popular UK shows like Dad’s Army and Top of the Pops going missing.

Old Doctor Who episodes do surface occasionally, and in 2016, the newly discovered soundtrack for one storyline was turned into an animated series called The Power of the Daleks.

Meanwhile, Disney ended its working relationship with the BBC last year, and star Ncuti Gatwa left the show. However, the UK broadcaster says that Doctor Who will continue, and Russell T Davies is working on a new Christmas special.