Technologies

Here Are the 5 Best VPNs in 2022

The best VPNs for private streaming, gaming and torrenting rated by our expert staff.

At CNET we rigorously test virtual private networks to determine which service is worthy of the title best VPN. We use a combination of the latest real-world research from industry experts and our own hands-on testing with these services to see how they compare against each other. To earn the crown, a VPN needs to demonstrate excellent speed, privacy and overall value in our evaluation. Currently, ExpressVPN is our Editors’ Choice for best overall VPN. Most recently, ExpressVPN passed its latest set of third-party audits, contributing to a growing record of industry-leading transparency efforts.

The best VPNs deliver unprecedented digital privacy without compromising performance. Though many people forego VPNs in favor of other types of network connections, we highly recommend using a good VPN for work, especially if you work with sensitive information.

A well-tested and reliable VPN is a cornerstone tool for protecting your digital privacy online, and getting the best value out of your online gaming and streaming. A VPN service is a mobile app or other software that — once you switch it on — encrypts the connection between your device and the internet, preventing your internet service provider from seeing what mobile apps or websites you are using. It also prevents most of those websites and apps from seeing what geographic location you’re connecting from. If configured correctly, VPNs can also stop your internet service provider from throttling your speeds.

Black Friday & Cyber Monday Deals

Surfshark:$2.05 a month for 26 months(Billed $53.28 upfront)
NordVPN:$3 a month for 27 months(Billed $80.73 upfront)
IPVanish:$4 a month for 12 months(Billed $48 upfront)
ProtonVPN:$4 a month for 30 months(Billed $120 upfront)
ExpressVPN:$6.67 per month for 15 months(Billed $100 upfront)

A VPN can also give you an added layer of security on public Wi-Fi networks, even though they’re far less of a security threat than they were in previous years. And with football season now in full swing, it’s a good time to note that VPNs can also be used to correct wrongly applied league blackouts and geographic restriction glitches. A VPN service also lets you bypass content blocks in some countries to access critical news and educational information, while also opening up your streaming entertainment options.

While we believe the best VPN overall is ExpressVPN, we’re also eager to find the best VPNs for different uses. That’s why we also recommend Surfshark VPN as the best cheap VPN for the budget-savvy. Each VPN in the list below has an excellent value for a specific use case, and we point out the ideal user for each one. We’re also in the process of re-evaluating ProtonVPN and will update our recommendations based on that review in the coming months. In the meantime, keep an eye out for Black Friday VPN deals, which have started on some providers, including many of our top picks.

Over the past several years, a flood of VPN providers has entered the marketplace, and that comes with both benefits and drawbacks. On one hand, the array of affordable VPN options now available means that — no matter how critical or casual your privacy needs — there’s a VPN service suited to your purpose. But it also means consumers have to wade through even more VPN advertising hype.

How we test VPNs

Our hands-on testing and review process is designed to cut through that hype. When we look at each VPN service, we’re not just examining them for their technical weaknesses, but we’re also scrutinizing their individual performance strengths. We want to know what each service does best. We test each VPN across over 20 factors, and we’re continually improving our methodology as we learn more.

We test VPNs for browsing and streaming speed in multiple countries as well as their connection stability and even the smallest potential privacy leaks. By testing across multiple devices and platforms, we’re able to assess which VPNs are best for gaming versus those best for streaming, torrenting or sharing sensitive information. Most importantly, we focus on doing the deep-dive research necessary to vet each VPN’s historical credibility and its ownership in a notoriously murky market.

The VPNs on this list earn our recommendation for more than just boosting their digital privacy strengths — they enable easy streaming to overcome geoblocked media, have torrenting-friendly servers, and are fast enough to support gaming globally. Based on those continued evaluations, you’ll see a few bullet points on each entry in our list, highlighting each VPN’s strengths and the uses we recommend it for most. And because we strive to keep on top of a fast-changing market, you’ll notice that the rank of each VPN service changes as we learn more and retest.

Best VPN services in 2022

Let’s look at each of our VPN vendors below in more depth. Keep in mind that this list is constantly being updated. We’re actively working on more VPN testing and research, so expect this guide to change throughout the year as we put each VPN through its paces.

The list below presents our favorites overall in 2022 so far. We’ll call out when specific traits make for a better choice in a more narrow evaluation.

Other VPNs we’ve tested

Not every VPN can be a favorite. These are ones we reviewed, but they’re not full-throated recommendations for one reason or another, including limited features and concerns over adequately hiding your identity.

Hotspot Shield

Servers: 1,800-plus in 80-plus locations
Country/Jurisdiction: US (Five Eyes member)
Platforms: Windows, Android, MacOS, iOS, Linux, Amazon Fire TV
Price: $8 per month or $95.88 billed annually. Month-to-month plan at $13

Hotspot Shield VPN’s TLS-based Hydra Catapult protocol, US jurisdiction, 128-bit AES encryption support and large percentage of virtual servers might strip away our trust in its ability to provide more privacy protections than its competitors — but those are all key components to its ability to achieve the blazing speeds it delivered during its most recent speed tests.

It’s the second-fastest VPN I’ve tested, effortlessly delivers smooth-streaming media and can dance between server connections without missing a beat, no matter how many interruptions you throw at it. A 26% speed loss puts it in second place, falling behind Surfshark — which lost just 16.9% of its speed the last time I tested it — and knocking ExpressVPN down to third place with a 51.8% speed loss at last measurement. Speed losses on UK connections were under 8%. Gaming, torrenting, browsing, streaming — these speed-dependent services won’t be slowed down for Hotspot Shield users.

We’re not excited about Hotspot’s privacy and security, though. Since the services uses a closed-source proprietary Catapult Hydra protocol, instead of the more transparent open-source OpenVPN protocol, we’d like to see Hotspot give the public more third-party audits — a necessary step to bring Hotspot up to speed with routinely audited VPNs like TunnelBear. As recently as April 2021, review site VPNMentor discovered a DNS leak in Hotspot Shield’s plug-in for Google Chrome. Hotspot acknowledged the issue at the time and aimed to improve the product.

We’re also not thrilled about the amount of user data Hotspot collects, and its privacy policy. With its premium product, it gathers and retains much more information about users than most other VPNs. And if you’re using the free version of its product, it shares that information — along with even more finite data, including your MAC address and specific phone identifier — with advertising companies.

While its interface is user-friendly and its speeds are thrilling, spending time with Hotspot is going to leave your wallet a little lighter than you might prefer. Its current price is higher than its nearest competitors, its speeds slightly slower and its privacy more questionable. If you’re looking for a VPN purely on the grounds of speed, we still recommend passing on Hotspot until it improves.

See all Hotspot Shield plans

TunnelBear

Average speed loss: 63%
Number of countries: 48-plus
Jurisdiction: Canada, with US parent company
Price: $3.33 per month, or $120, for a 3-year plan

TunnelBear’s gotten a lot of hype in the last couple of years. But when we looked under its hood and compared it with its VPN competitors, our excitement waned.

TunnelBear’s speeds are reasonable. We lost nearly 63% of internet speed overall when we used it, which is about average for a VPN. TunnelBear’s speeds have steadily improved over the years as measured by other review and testing sites, though, and the US scores we recorded saw a speed loss of only 54%.

On the plus side, TunnelBear is holding its own in the transparency competition among VPNs by publishing the results of its independent security audits and annual transparency reports. No IP address, DNS or other potentially user-identifying data leaks were detected during our testing, but in the past TunnelBear was observed to have been leaking WebRTC information. TunnelBear’s VPN encryption is standard AES-256 and it supports Perfect Forward Secrecy.

However, it’s also a Canadian business owned by US-based McAfee, so if you’re looking for subpoena-proof international online privacy, you’re playing with fire. It holds a paltry 23 server locations from which you can’t manually choose your VPN server or even a city. It doesn’t offer Tor-over-VPN, it offers split tunneling only on Android and it can’t even unblock Netflix.

On a per-month breakdown, the least expensive TunnelBear plan is its $120, three-year plan. You can also go month to month for $10, or pay $60 up front for a single year. Either way, TunnelBear accepts payment via credit card and bitcoin. Unlike other VPNs, it doesn’t take PayPal. Also unlike other VPNs, it doesn’t support Amazon Fire Stick or Android TV.

See at TunnelBear

CyberGhost VPN

Number of servers: Over 8,000 worldwide in 91 countries
Number of server locations: 111
Jurisdiction: Romania, with UK parent company
Number of simultaneous connections: 7
$2.03 a month or $60 for a two year plan (plus four free months). Month-to-month plan at $13.

In CNET’s previous coverage of virtual private networks, we’ve praised CyberGhost for its roster of competitive features. Our in-depth review of CyberGhostin 2019 included speed testing, security verification and an analysis of its full suite of privacy tools. Since then, the VPN company has increased its number of servers and is prepared to roll out new privacy tools, all while remaining one of the cheapest VPNs we’ve reviewed — at $2.03 per month for a two-year plan.

As we’ve bolstered our approach to VPN reviews, however, CyberGhost has raised some red flags. Its parent company’s history warrants skepticism; our previous tests have shown it to expose your VPN use to your ISP; its website and app trackers are more numerous than warranted; and its ad blocker uses an untrustworthy method of traffic manipulation no VPN should even think about. Its low price previously made it worth considering if you needed to change the appearance of your location online, but not if you wanted best-in-class security.

While CyberGhost’s connection speed and security features appear to be improving, we don’t currently recommend using the VPN service provider if you’re in a country where VPNs are illegal. We also recommend that anyone in the US review CyberGhost’s parent company before deciding whether to pay for a subscription.

On the plus side, however, CyberGhost is still faster than Norton Secure VPN and was less taxing on the processing power of our devices. It also offers split tunneling in its Windows client and has its servers neatly organized into categories: NoSpy servers, servers geared for torrenting, servers best for streaming and servers best for use with a static IP address. CyberGhost imposes no data caps, allows unlimited server switching and offers a 45-day money back guarantee on subscription plans of a year or more.

See all CyberGhost VPN plans

Norton Secure VPN

Number of countries: 30
Number of servers: 1,500 (1,200 virtual)
Number of server locations: 200 in 73 cities
Country/jurisdiction: US
$40 for the first 12 months for five devices

NortonLifeLock, long known for excellence in security products, has a relatively limited offering in its VPN product. Norton Secure VPN does not support P2P or BitTorrent, Linux, routers or set-top boxes. Its Netflix and streaming compatibility is somewhat limited. Even worse, during testing, we experienced privacy-compromising data leaks.

During CNET’s testing, Norton Secure VPN speeds were comparable to other midtier VPNs but not particularly competitive. Although its VPN is only available on four platforms — Mac, iOS, Windows and Android — Norton gets points for its 24/7 live customer service phone support and 60-day money back guarantee.

Norton Secure VPN’s pricing structure is a bit different than what you typically find in the industry. Pricing is tiered based on how many simultaneous connections you want with your account. For a single device, you’ll pay $30 for the first year and $50 for any subsequent years, or $4.99 a month for the monthly. For five simultaneous connections, the price jumps to $40 for the first year and $80 for subsequent years, or $8 a month for the monthly plan. If you want up to 10 simultaneous connections, the price is $60 for the first year and $100 for subsequent years, or $10 a month for the monthly plan.

See all Norton plans

Mullvad

Number of servers: 840
Server location: 68 locations in 38 countries
Number of simultaneous connections: 5
Jurisdiction: Sweden
Price: $5 a month

Mullvad is an independent and open source VPN provider that is focused on building trust through transparency and its commitment to protecting the privacy and security of its users. Although there are other VPNs that are considerably more well-known in the industry, Mullvad’s offering overall is just as polished and easy to use as many of the bigger players in the market.

Mullvad’s primary focus is on security. Like most other top VPN providers, Mullvad employs industry-standard AES 256-bit encryption to secure users’ connections. Mullvad’s kill switch feature and DNS leak protection are enabled by default and cannot be disabled. During our testing, the kill switch worked as expected and we detected no leaks of any kind. The company says it doesn’t keep any logs of its users’ activity, and is, for the most part, pretty transparent about how it operates and what it does to protect user privacy. Mullvad is unique in that it doesn’t require any personal information at signup. While most VPN providers ask users to provide an email address and enter a username, Mullvad generates a random 16-digit account number to activate each new user account. You don’t even need to provide any payment information since Mullvad accepts cash sent via mail.

Mullvad’s source code being entirely open source is a testament to the company’s transparency, but we’d still like to see Mullvad issue an annual transparency report to give the public a view of how many legal requests the company gets and where they’re coming from. Though Mullvad tells us a new security audit is forthcoming, the company’s 2020 security audit (conducted by German cybersecurity firm Cure53) concluded at the time that the VPN “does a great job protecting the end user from common PII leaks and privacy-related risks.”

With servers in 68 locations across 38 countries, Mullvad’s VPN server network is comparatively small. Even so, the network covers the most in-demand locations and is pretty well spread out across the globe. And what its network may lack in size, it makes up for in speed. In our latest round of speed testing, we measured just a 23% drop in average speeds (most VPNs will slow you down 50% or more), easily making it one of the fastest VPNs we’ve tested. Though Mullvad’s speeds are fantastic, it’s not the best for geographically restricted content. We were able to access Netflix without any issues, but were denied access to stream Disney-plus when connected to Mullvad’s US servers.

However, Mullvad’s straightforward approach to pricing is a breath of fresh air, especially with so many other VPN providers concocting ever-more convoluted pricing structures. Mullvad costs about $5 a month, whether you want to use it for a month, a year or a decade — and you’re never locked into a long-term subscription plan. If you’re not satisfied with the service, you can get a refund within 30 days of purchase.

See all Mullvad plans

Other VPNs our experts are reviewing

Below you’ll find some additional VPNs. We’re in the process of re-evaluating them in the coming months.

PureVPN

Number of servers: 6,500-plus
Number of countries: 78-plus
Country/jurisdiction: Hong Kong
$3.24 a month for one-year plan, $1.99 a month for a two-year plan (plus three free months)

PureVPN says it doesn’t log connection information. The company joined the “no log” movement in 2018, and underwent a third-party audit by Althius IT (albeit one commissioned and paid for by PureVPN).

We like that PureVPN offers a 31-day refund policy and supports Bitcoin payments. We also like that PureVPN has both Kodi and Chromebook apps available. In addition, PureVPN was the first VPN service we noted to fully implement GDPR compliance.

See all PureVPN plans

StrongVPN

Number of servers: 950-plus
Number of server locations: 59 locations in 30 countries
$3.66 a month (67% discount) for a one-year plan
StrongVPN in-depth review and hands-on testing (ZDNet)

StrongVPN blasts onto our list with excellent infrastructure and a decent price. StrongVPN has a strong no-logging policy, and picks up kudos for its large base of IP addresses. It has a solid collection of servers and worldwide locations. For those of you who need a dedicated IP, you can get one from the company but you’ll need to contact customer support to get help setting it up.

One of StrongVPN’s strengths is the company’s network. It owns and operates its entire network infrastructure, which means it has no externally dictated limits on bandwidth or the type of internet traffic allowed on the network.

StrongVPN’s regular monthly price of $10.99 is in the middle of the pack, but its regular yearly price of $80 is among the lowest of our contenders.

See all StrongVPN plans

Private Internet Access

Number of server locations: 84 countries
Country/jurisdiction: US
Simultaneous connections: 10
Price: $2.19 per month for the two-year plan

If you’re looking for one of the least expensive VPN providers, Private Internet Access fits the bill.

The best value offered by Private Internet Access is the two-year plan, which works out to $2.19 a month, and includes two free months. But if you don’t want to lock in for an extended period of time, you can get a six-month subscription for $45 (which comes out to $7.50 a month), or a monthly plan for $12 a month.

PIA has quite an expansive network of servers, spanning 84 countries, including servers in 18 different US cities. Though not as expansive as the fleets for ExpressVPN or CyberGhost VPN, the 84 countries gives PIA one of the largest server networks you’ll find in a VPN provider.

Operating since 2010, Private Internet Access offers 10 simultaneous connections, a kill-switch feature and a 30-day refund period.

See all Private Internet Access plans

VPN FAQ

In today’s hyper-connected world, online privacy and security are increasingly critical. From online banking to communicating remotely with colleagues, we’re transferring more data on our computers and smartphones than ever before. Much of that data is confidential information that we need to keep safe from hackers and snoops, so VPN use is on the rise as people take steps to secure their digital lives.

Additional VPN factors to consider

Don’t use free VPN services: You’ll find only paid VPN options on this list above because they’re the only ones we can recommend.

Look for a no-logs VPN, but understand the caveats: The best VPNs keep as few logs as possible and make them as anonymous as possible, so there’s little data to provide should authorities come knocking. But even “no-logs” VPNs aren’t 100% anonymous.

There are limits to the privacy VPNs currently provide to iOS users: Recent independent research has surfaced suggesting iPhones and iPads running iOS 14 or later may be vulnerable to device-only VPN leaks, regardless of which VPN is used. Apple users concerned with potential leaks can take extra precaution by installing their VPN on a home router to ensure their entire Wi-Fi network is encrypted. Some iOS users may potentially reduce the likelihood of leaks while outside of a home network by enabling their VPN’s kill switch and selecting OpenVPN protocols. You can also try closing all apps, activating your VPN, and then enabling and disabling Airplane Mode before using your device normally. Apple advises users to activate their device’s Always On VPN profile for additional protection.

VPN transparency is important, but warrant canaries are only the beginning: Many services use “warrant canaries” as a way to passively note to the public as to whether or not they’ve been subpoenaed by a government entity, as many investigations from national security agencies can’t be actively disclosed by law. But — like the no-logging issue — warrant canaries aren’t always as straightforward as they seem. You should spend more time investigating whether your prospective VPN has cooperated with authorities in the past, and how and when it’s disclosed that fact.

Think twice about using a US-based VPN: The Patriot Act is still the law of the land in the US, and that means US-based VPNs have little recourse if and when the feds show up with subpoenas or national security letters in hand demanding access to servers, VPN user accounts or other data. Yes, they may have little data to access if the service has a strong no-logs policy, but why not just choose a service that’s based outside Uncle Sam’s jurisdiction? (If this is a concern for you, you’ll want to avoid countries that the US has intelligence-sharing agreements with, too.)

Best VPNs for your use case

Technologies

China’s super-rich fled Singapore. Now they want to come back

Wealthy Chinese are reconsidering Singapore as Beijing’s offshore wealth scrutiny and geopolitical risks make alternatives less attractive.

A year ago, wealthy Chinese families were souring on Singapore. Its rules felt onerous, its nightlife subdued. Other cities seemed easier or more exciting.

Now they want to come back.

Family-office advisers and wealth managers say they are seeing renewed interest in Singapore from affluent Chinese clients who had shifted their lives to other financial centers, as tightening scrutiny from Beijing and geopolitical turmoil make its stability look attractive again.

The reversal underscores how quickly the calculations of Asia’s wealthy can change.

Singapore emerged as a favored destination for wealthy mainland Chinese seeking to diversify their assets and gain distance from Beijing, particularly after Hong Kong’s 2019 protests and subsequent national security crackdown.

However, its appeal faded after a $3 billion money-laundering scandal in 2023 triggered tighter scrutiny of wealthy clients and family offices. Stricter compliance checks, lengthy bank onboarding and residency requirements pushed some Chinese families toward jurisdictions they viewed as easier or more appealing – such as Hong Kong, Dubai and Tokyo.

They’re now telling me I really want to come to Singapore to become a citizen.Ryan LinBayfront Law

But what once seemed restrictive is increasingly being viewed by some as a source of security.

“The very reason why they came to Singapore in the first place back then was because China’s policies impact Hong Kong much closer to them than in Singapore,” said Bayfront Law director Ryan Lin.

Lin, who advises wealthy Chinese clients on setting up family offices and securing residency in Singapore, said last year that he was increasingly helping clients move away from the city-state as tighter compliance and disclosure requirements eroded its appeal.

The shift comes as Beijing steps up scrutiny of wealth held outside mainland China. New rules affecting offshore trusts have rattled wealthy families because of requirements to disclose structures and potential tax liabilities, while tighter oversight has also extended to areas including insurance and offshore brokerage accounts. These rules can apply regardless of where a trust is located or where an individual physically lives.

“When it comes to the safety of their wealth, they probably now are considering Singapore very, very seriously for the long term,” he said, adding that they are more determined this time, with several asking about pathways to permanent residency and citizenship as they consider making Singapore a longer-term base.

Moving to Singapore does not automatically sever an individual’s obligations to China, said Carman Chan, founder of Hong Kong and Singapore-based family office Click Ventures, particularly without a change in citizenship or tax status.

Advisers say the renewed interest in Singapore is generally about creating physical, financial and political distance from the mainland while maintaining additional options.

Lin said recent restrictions affecting mainland investors’ access to offshore brokerages in Hong Kong had particularly unsettled some clients. “They find perhaps Hong Kong is really too close to China,” he said.

Manish Tibrewal, co-founder of family office Farro Capital, said his firm has seen a sharp pickup in inquiries from Chinese families considering to relocate to Singapore.

A spokesperson for Hong Kong’s Financial Services and the Treasury Bureau said that under the “one country, two systems” framework, “Hong Kong upholds the common law system, the free flow of capital, the free convertibility of its currency, a simple and low tax regime, and a regulatory framework aligned with international standards.”

Dubai reversal

Singapore is also benefiting from a different source of anxiety: the Middle East.

Several advisers, including Tibrewal and Lin, said Chinese families who shifted toward Dubai in recent years have reconsidered their plans amid conflict in the region.

Lin said some of his clients initially treated the conflict as a temporary shock. But as tensions persisted, families began taking more concrete steps to leave.

“My clients are afraid that Dubai may potentially be easy collateral damage.” Lin said. “Their sense of security will not be there. They will be frantic. At least mentally, they won’t feel very safe. Their mindset of managing money in Dubai has changed.”

Some have already returned while others are unwinding investments and financial arrangements before doing so, he said.

Japan’s barriers

Tokyo had become attractive to wealthy Chinese in recent years as a weak yen made everything from property to luxury goods cheaper. Its proximity to China and safety had also made it an obvious alternative to Singapore.

Yet language barriers, difficulties integrating into Japanese society and differences in business and social culture caused issues, advisers said.

Iris Xu, CEO of Jenga Business Consulting Group, a consultancy that works with wealthy families, cited one client who relocated to Japan but returned to Singapore after just eight months.

“After going to Japan, going to Dubai, going to Hong Kong, there remains the Singapore option,” Xu said.

Back to Singapore

The renewed interest also arrives as Singapore itself fine-tunes the rules governing its family-office industry.

The Monetary Authority of Singapore in July eased some conditions for single-family offices seeking tax incentives, with the changes taking effect Aug. 1. The revisions give offices greater flexibility on hiring and investment requirements even as authorities continue to strengthen checks on the sources of wealth entering the country.

“Wealth owners from a diverse range of countries choose Singapore for many reasons, including our high standards of regulation, strong rule of law, and a comprehensive ecosystem of wealth managers and professional service providers,” an MAS spokesperson told CNBC.

Advisers for the wealthy say Singapore’s advantage is increasingly the predictability that comes with its rules.

“Their priorities have changed,” Xu said. “Before, maybe they were looking for an opportunity. Now they are looking at safety.”

Technologies

U.S.-Iran escalation shows Washington’s frustration with slow-moving sanctions

Renewed hostilities reopen the question of whether the conflict is grinding toward a settlement or further escalation.

The escalation in hostilities between the U.S. and Iran over the weekend shows the U.S. is running out of patience with the slower-moving sanctions approach, according to analysts.

U.S. forces destroyed two Iranian rocket launchers on Larak Island on Sunday, as the Islamic Republic prepared to fire mine-carrying rockets into the Strait of Hormuz, ending a month-long lull in direct fighting.

The strike was the first publicly acknowledged U.S. attack since late July. Iran responded within hours, firing eight missiles at the King Hussein and Al Azraq air bases in Jordan. Jordanian air defenses intercepted all eight, with no casualties, the government said.

Later Sunday, President Donald Trump threatened on social media to blow up Kharg Island, Iran’s main oil-export hub, to “smithereens.”

“Most of the war has been tactically focused rather than strategic from the outset,” said Ian Ralby, a maritime security expert and president of Auxilium Worldwide. “The question, therefore, is: why this, why now?”

The sanctions campaign may not be hurting Iran’s leadership fast enough for the U.S.’s liking, Ralby said. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told Reuters on Sunday that he expects new sanctions on Iran weekly, particularly targeting banks, and that Washington intends to cut Tehran-linked institutions out of the dollar system entirely.

“It may be that the financial pressure was not curtailing Iranian behavior to the level the U.S. anticipated,” Ralby said. Renewed Iranian military activity may also have threatened U.S. forces or interests in the region “at a sufficiently high level of gravity that the U.S. felt it necessary to strike Iranian territory once more.”

The U.S. strike is likely an attempt to break a deadlock rather than a shift in policy, Ralby added. “The status quo has become somewhat stagnant, and I’m sure the U.S. would like to see that change,” he said. But it is unlikely to alter “the continuation of the blockade, or the economic ‘warfare’ being used to try to pressure Iran.”

Potential escalation

Trump’s threat against Kharg Island is likely to remain rhetorical. The terminal has absorbed dozens of strikes since the war began, with its oil infrastructure deliberately spared.

“It is unlikely that the President of the United States will actually carry through on the threat to attack Kharg Island,” Ralby said, noting the island also holds a historic early church that Iran has worked to preserve.

An attack “would be a destruction of cultural heritage as well as destruction of critical oil infrastructure, which would likely cause catastrophic environmental harm,” he said. “Threatening it may seem appealing, but actually blowing it up should hold little appeal.”

Rather than confronting U.S. forces head-on, Iran is more likely to retaliate through proxies and pressure on shipping and energy flows.

“The key to this conflict from the outset has been asymmetry,” Ralby said. “The Iranians have demonstrated an ability to use limited actual force to inflict substantial, actual harm.”

For instance, the Houthis, who control a large part of Yemen and have held sway over the approaches to the Bab el-Mandeb for the better part of a decade, entered the war weeks ago in support of Iran.

With the Houthis restricting navigation through the Bab el-Mandeb, the U.S. and its allies in the region could face a situation where the two major maritime chokepoints used to export the majority of the Gulf’s petroleum products are “subject to manipulation by Iran and its partners,” said Michael Ratney, senior adviser at the Center for Strategic & International Studies.

“We always assume that the Houthis and Iran are part of the same kind of group, but they’re not,” said Claudio Galimberti, chief economist at Rystad Energy. “They have worked in the past quite independently.”

Somali piracy, dormant since 2013, has also returned as coalition navies concentrate on the Red Sea and Hormuz. At least five vessels are currently held, including a tanker seized off Al Mukalla on Aug. 20.

“Enhanced pressure on oil production, the energy market, and global shipping are likely to be the focal points for Iranian retaliation,” Ralby said.

The military campaign remains the dominant force in oil prices. Flows through the strait reached roughly 7 million barrels a day last week via the Omani corridor under U.S. Navy escort, according to Galimberti’s estimates, calling it “a very costly mechanism … but it’s working.”

The strike on Larak threatens to reverse that recovery, injecting fresh uncertainty into commercial shipping through the waterway. “The expectation is that the flows in the next couple of days probably will be lower, and therefore you should expect the price increase for sure,” Galimberti said.

Technologies

CNBC Daily Open: Trump wants to floor it on economic growth as Warsh eyes the brakes

The Trump administration saw two embattled officials fending off criticism yesterday as the war in the Middle East flared up again.

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Hello, this is Hui Jie writing to you from Singapore. Welcome to another edition of CNBC’s Daily Open.

The Trump administration saw two embattled officials fending off criticism yesterday as the war in the Middle East flared up again, with U.S. President Donald Trump trying to lower pump prices and talk up growth.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent also defended the decision to increase bond purchases earlier last month, after investor Stanley Druckenmiller criticized the move.

If you were working late in Asia last night, you may not have caught any of this, simply because Microsoft Outlook and ChatGPT Work experienced outages. I know of more than a few office workers that were secretly grateful for that.

What you need to know today

U.S. President Donald Trump has unveiled a cunning plan to combat high pump prices for Americans, involving his claimed control over 65 billion barrels of oil reserves in Venezuela.

He will meet with U.S. refiners and fuel distributors, looking for ways to expand domestic refining capacity and bring down gasoline prices, according to a White House official.

Prices at U.S. pumps were at $4.08 per gallon on average nationwide Monday, according to AAA data, which is nearly 30% higher compared to the same time last year.

However, there is just one snag. Experts told CNBC that his deal with Venezuela will not lower gas prices anytime soon.

Venezuela’s oil infrastructure is in a state of disrepair, and it will require about $180 billion of investment till 2040 to return the country to peak production, according to Rystad Energy.

The South American nation is currently producing around 1.2 million barrels a day, down from a peak of 3.5 million bpd in the late 1990s.

Trump also has one eye on the Middle East, vowing to hit Iran “hard” after the Islamic Republic said it launched an attack on two U.S. bases in Jordan.

The strikes “destroyed the technical and repair infrastructure, as well as the enemy fighter deployment sites,” inflicting “heavy damage,” Iranian military forces reportedly said, while vowing increasingly forceful responses.

Growth and the Fed

Trump also continued his push for the Fed to lower interest rates, arguing that the U.S. could grow at rates of up to 20% (yes, that is not a typo), and adding such rapid growth should not prompt the central bank to raise interest rates.

“Success in growth does not cause inflation,” the U.S. president said. However, growth has never reached anywhere close to the levels Trump is saying, except for one Covid pandemic-related surge of 34.9% in 2020, which notably followed a 28% contraction in the previous quarter.

The most recent GDP numbers, however, are a far cry from the 20% annualized growth touted. Real GDP increased at a 1.5% annualized rate in the second quarter of 2026, down from 2.1% in the first quarter, according to the BEA’s latest estimate.

The president’s stance would then put him at odds with Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh, who is expected by markets to hike rates at the Fed’s meeting in September.

Odds for a move at the Sept. 15-16 meeting jumped to 66.1% on Monday, nearly double where they were before Warsh’s speech at Jackson Hole over the weekend, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch tool.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, meanwhile, defended the department’s decision to double the planned size of buybacks of longer-dated U.S. bonds.

Investor Stanley Druckenmiller, Bessent’s former mentor, argued that the policy amounted to “price management” rather than an attempt to improve market liquidity, and risked undermining the Treasury’s credibility.

Outlook and ChatGPT outages

But the most important news for office workers Monday stateside would be that they had a rare reprieve from some of their work, as Microsoft Outlook and OpenAI’s ChatGPT Work experienced outages.

Users reported problems with Outlook, while OpenAI said users may experience problems starting or continuing tasks in ChatGPT Work, temporarily disabling two of the modern office’s favorite methods of assigning more work.

Anyone who failed to send an email, and then failed to ask AI to write an excuse for not sending that email, finally could legitimately say “I couldn’t do it, honest!”

— Lim Hui Jie

And finally…

FTC sues Amazon, accusing the e-commerce giant of misleading advertisers

The Federal Trade Commission on Monday sued Amazon, alleging the e-commerce giant “secretly and systematically overcharged” advertisers on its platform by manipulating its pricing and auction systems.

The lawsuit, which was joined by 22 state attorneys general, argues that Amazon may have reaped more than $20 billion from advertisers by using “hidden surcharges” dating back to a change to its auction rules that took effect in 2019.

However, the company argues that its auction systems have saved advertisers $8 billion between 2021 and 2025, not cost them extra.

— Annie Palmer

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