Oil prices continued falling on Thursday as concerns about supply disruptions eased following attacks on Saudi Arabia’s key East-West pipeline.

Brent futures, the international benchmark, traded slightly lower at $105.81 per barrel, while U.S. crude oil was down 0.22% at $102.14 a barrel.

Saudi Arabia is making additional crude cargoes available to Asian refiners through ship-to-ship transfers near Oman’s Sohar port, helping cushion the impact on global supplies from attacks on the kingdom’s East-West pipeline to the Red Sea, Reuters reported, citing sources familiar with the matter.

U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright told Verum on Tuesday that the East-West pipeline outage was a “brief and temporary interruption” that “will be measured in days,” easing concerns about supply.

Earlier this week, crude loadings at Saudi Arabia’s Red Sea export terminal in Yanbu were halted, and Riyadh canceled some shipments to European customers.

Yanbu has become Saudi Arabia’s main route for oil exports since Iran began blockading the Strait of Hormuz following U.S. and Israeli attacks on the country in late February.

Peter Massabni, head of business development at XS.com, said in a note late Wednesday that Saudi Arabia’s efforts to find alternative export routes after the disruption at Yanbu had reassured markets that some of the lost crude supply could return.

However, he warned that the outlook remains highly dependent on developments in the Middle East.

Massabni said a renewed escalation that causes deeper disruptions to regional oil and gas production and exports would keep inflation risks elevated and put further upward pressure on bond yields.

“This uncertainty about possible escalation paths in the region, along with crude, gasoline and diesel prices remaining at high and critical levels, could fuel pessimism about the US Federal Reserve’s monetary policy path,” he wrote.

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Hello, this is Priyanka Salve, writing to you from Mumbai.

Welcome to the latest edition of “Inside India” — your one-stop destination for stories and developments from the world’s fastest-growing large economy.

The world’s largest payments system by volume, India’s unified payment interface, popularized cashless transactions in the country by offering complimentary services to all. This is about to change. Starting next month, merchants will need to pay a fee of 0.4% for accepting payments exceeding $20.

While the government has defended the move, confident it will not harm India’s progression toward a cashless economy, critics disagree.

What are your thoughts on today’s newsletter? Share them with the team.

The main story

The Indian government’s decision to charge merchants using its globally acclaimed real-time digital payment system, UPI, which competes with Visa and Mastercard, has ignited intense debate in the country.

While some critics have questioned the need to charge for a service the government previously described as a “digital public good,” Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s political opponents allege that the government is succumbing to pressure from the U.S.

On Tuesday, the National Payments Corporation of India announced that a 0.4% charge will be applied to merchants receiving payments via UPI above 2,000 rupees ($20.84). For transactions exceeding 75,000 rupees, the fee will be capped at 300 rupees per transaction, it added.

The umbrella organization managing India’s retail payments and settlement systems stated that person-to-person transactions on UPI will remain free, and even the fee charged to merchants is significantly lower than the 0.9% on debit card transactions and 1.5%-2.5% on credit cards.

Bouquets and brickbats

Fintech companies have welcomed the move to charge merchants a fee.

“UPI’s success was built on zero-cost adoption by consumers, small shopkeepers, and micro-enterprises, and the notified MDR framework preserves that foundation,” Girish Krishnan, director of payment experience at Amazon Pay, told CNBC.

Meta’s WhatsApp Pay head Kunal Shah called it a “great step forward.” Another popular payment app, Paytm, stated that the measure will generate additional revenue from merchant businesses.

In 2020, the Indian government reduced the merchant discount rate, the fee incurred by merchants for accepting payments via UPI, to zero to promote digital transactions in the country. Following this move, the transaction value on UPI increased tenfold to 213 trillion rupees over approximately six years ending January 2025.

“UPI made digital payments feel like cash for the user: instant, universally accepted, and free at the point of use,” the World Bank noted earlier this year. That “feeling” is set to change, bringing the government’s move under close scrutiny and drawing criticism.

Former CEO of Indian fintech company BharatPe, Ashneer Grover, has criticized the move to charge merchants a fee, adding that “any levy on UPI is just tax collection.”

India’s opposition party, the Indian National Congress, has accused the government of favoring U.S. firms, stating that the step will lead to money being “collected from the pockets of Indians to fill the coffers of American companies,” such as PhonePe, Google Pay, and Amazon. Some commentators have said the move will encourage people to return to cash transactions.

Level playing field

The UPI payment system processes an average of more than 1.1 million transactions every two minutes, according to NPCI data for September. In January, the Indian government stated that UPI has surpassed Visa in terms of daily transaction volumes, accounting for 85% of digital payments in India and 50% globally.

These figures caught the attention of the U.S. Trade Representative’s office, which in its report earlier this year flagged concerns that policies governing India’s electronic payment services “appear to favor Indian domestic suppliers over foreign suppliers, creating a non-level playing field.”

The USTR report also stated that American electronic payment service providers could not participate in the Indian ecosystem, including credit transactions on UPI and the domestic card payment network RuPay.

Experts told CNBC that while UPI will no longer be free for all, the new merchant fee was unlikely to benefit card companies such as Visa, Mastercard, and Amex.

However, the fee will help strengthen the unit economics for platforms like Walmart-owned PhonePe and Google Pay. The two payment apps together account for nearly 85% of UPI transactions by value and 81% by volume, according to a report by Indian brokerage Ambit Capital.

“A 0.4% rate severely undercuts credit cards at 1.5% to 2% and debit cards,” Neil Shah, vice president of research at Counterpoint Research, told CNBC, adding that it gives merchants “every economic incentive to favor UPI rails.”

UPI transactions above 2,000 rupees account for just 4% of merchant payment volumes but approximately 67% of transaction value, according to a Reuters report, which creates a substantial revenue pool for payment system providers like banks and fintech companies.

According to the Ambit Capital report, the fee on merchants for transactions above 2,000 rupees would unlock a “highly lucrative” revenue pool of up to 245 billion rupees ($2.5 billion) for the sector.

“India’s unique zero-MDR [merchant discount rate] UPI environment is in stark contrast to high-margin global card markets,” the report stated, adding that it pushed fintech companies to rely on “cross-selling financial products and value-added services” to generate revenue.

Need to know

India’s retail inflation reached 4.8% in August, rising for the 10th consecutive month

India’s headline inflation increased to 4.82% in August from 4.45% in July, adding pressure on the country’s central bank to raise key benchmark rates. Inflation has been on the rise for 10 consecutive months in the world’s fastest-growing major economy.

Indian Prime Minister Modi states border peace is crucial for India-China relations

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi said on Saturday that “peace and tranquility” in border areas is essential for developing bilateral relations with neighboring China. Relations between the two countries, which had sharply deteriorated following a deadly border skirmish in 2020, have been improving for over a year.

Coming up

Sept. 17: National Stock Exchange IPO opens.

Sept. 23: HSBC Flash PMI for September.

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President Donald Trump on Wednesday warned that he could levy tariffs on the European Union or cease trade altogether if the bloc moves forward with its plan to make Canada its first-ever “associate member.” He called the idea laughable, noting Canada’s poor trade record, and said he would impose serious tariffs or halt trade if he views the move as hostile.

Trump’s comments followed remarks by European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, who said the EU is opening the door for Canada to become the first associate member of the 27‑nation union. Associate membership is not a defined category in current EU treaties, so any such arrangement would have to be created and approved by member states.

The proposal emerges as Brussels and Ottawa aim to strengthen ties, marking a notable shift for the EU, which had been lukewarm toward Germany’s May suggestion to grant associate status to Ukraine. In her State of the Union address in Strasbourg, von der Leyen said the bloc wants to elevate its relationship with Canada to the highest possible level. Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney, who attended the speech, has previously expressed Ottawa’s interest in a distinct security and economic partnership with Europe, short of full membership.

Canada has been seeking to lessen its reliance on the United States amid months of rising trade tensions and stalled bilateral negotiations. Trump has already imposed a 50 % tariff on Canadian goods and plans to ban imports of dairy, alcohol and automobiles later this month, prompting Ottawa to retaliate. Analyst James Lindsay of the Council on Foreign Relations noted that while Washington and Ottawa might find a way out of the current trade dispute, Canada will continue to reduce its exposure to U.S. economic pressure.

Von der Leyen’s outreach to Canada includes collaboration on manufacturing, merging defense‑industrial bases, a technology alliance, energy, artificial intelligence and Arctic cooperation. Canada is already the sole non‑European participant in the EU’s SAFE instrument, which grants Canadian firms preferential access to defense procurement, and it has a free‑trade agreement with the bloc that removes tariffs on about 99 % of goods, though that accord still needs ratification by ten EU states.

Any new U.S. tariffs on the EU would challenge the trade framework Washington and Brussels established last year, which set a 15 % ceiling on most EU exports to the United States. Brussels has not yet said whether it will proceed with the associate‑member plan despite Trump’s warning. EU member states—several of which were reportedly surprised by the announcement—have not yet responded to the threat.