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CNBC Daily Open: Stability is on the menu as Trump and Xi start dinner

No one expects the two sides to settle every disagreement that they have, but Beijing and Washington seem committed to reducing tensions.

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Hello, this is Hui Jie writing to you from Singapore. Welcome to another edition of CNBC’s Daily Open.

Former Chinese leader Deng Xiaoping once said: It does not matter if its a white cat, or a black cat. As long as it can catch mice, it is a good cat.

The same idea might apply to Thursday’s summit between U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping — few expect the two sides to settle every disagreement that they have, but from the two leaders’ opening remarks, Beijing and Washington seem committed to reducing tensions.

And that might be enough to make it a good summit.

What you need to know today

By the time you read this, both U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping would have moved from the negotiating table to the dinner table.

The summit between the two leaders so far has seemed cordial, with Xi saying that U.S. and Chinese interests are “deeply intertwined” and that their competition “should be a healthy one and should be kept within bounds.“

Trump, on his part, mentioned that the two sides are “working to encourage a more balanced trading relationship,” and that the leaders plan to discuss “pressing issues” around security, technology and AI.

“The decisions we make in these areas today can promote peace and prosperity for decades and decades to come,” Trump added.

Even the dinner menu seemed reflective of the priorities of the meeting. The White House described the state dinner menu as a showcase of “American ingredients with subtle Chinese influence.”

Perhaps the goal will be — like the menu — to keep domestic priorities at the center, but permit a little influence from the other side.

Guests include a slew of high powered U.S. CEOs like Apple’s Tim Cook, Nvidia’s Jensen Huang and his wife, as well as Tesla’s Elon Musk and AMD’s Lisa Su. Meta and OpenAI were also among the other major U.S. tech companies represented.

Chinese business leaders were previously expected to attend the dinner, but a source briefed on the preparations told CNBC that they weren’t aware of any Chinese companies who have been invited to join Xi on his trip.

But for all the pomp and ceremony, China analysts broadly predict the leaders’ personal relationship and policy goals will result in a cautious summit that yields few major deliverables.

Some headway

That said, there was already some progress made before the two leaders sat down.

China’s Commerce Ministry confirmed that senior U.S. and Chinese negotiators held their first dialogue dedicated to artificial intelligence.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng discussed establishing a mechanism through which the countries could alert each other to AI-related risks.

Their talks also covered tariff reductions and an extension of trade arrangements reached last October.

Bessent said the countries had agreed to extend their truce until January, preserving lower tariffs and limits on Chinese export controls covering rare earths.

Bond markets worry

But while optimism abounded on the summit front, bond markets seemed to be looking elsewhere.

Treasury yields hit multidecade highs on Thursday as investors bet that another rate hike from the Federal Reserve would be coming.

Most notably, the 30-year Treasury bond yield reached a high of 5.501%, a level not seen since June 2004. The benchmark 10-year Treasury note yield climbed to its highest level since June 2007, at a high of 5.223%.

The surge in yields put pressure on stocks, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average sliding 0.31% to notch a third straight losing session. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite were flat.

However, the losses were offset after Reuters, citing sources, reported that U.S. and Iranian negotiators in New York are considering a deal that would bring a phased end to the conflict in the Middle East.

The reported deal would see Iran reopen the Strait of Hormuz and the U.S. lift its economic blockade on Tehran.

Crude prices came off their session highs following the news, although prices remained elevated. Brent gained 2.5% to $105.69 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate rose 2.3% to $94.30. Oil slipped in early Asia trade on Friday, with both benchmarks falling.

The reported deal does not mean that peace is definitely on the horizon. In Washington, the Senate narrowly rejected a resolution directing Trump to end the Iran war or seek congressional authorization to continue it.

The measure failed 49-50. Four Republicans joined most Democrats in supporting it, while Democratic Sen. John Fetterman voted against it.

And finally…

Global debt tops $365 trillion as economists sound alarm over ‘vicious cycle’

Ever-higher costs to service mounting debt loads pose a major risk to governments around the world, economists have warned.

Global debt rose by $10 trillion in the first half of the year to top $365 trillion, according to research published by the Institute of International Finance on Wednesday.

Debt has become a political issue, creating a “vicious cycle between elections and short-term quick fixes, and a long-term vulnerability as the marginal utility of higher debt diminishes,” the IIF warned.

— Jenni Reid

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Technologies

Chinese authorities reportedly seize F-35 parts in Hong Kong

Chinese authorities reportedly seized F-35 stealth fighter components that were diverted to Hong Kong, prompting investigations by Australia, the U.S., and Lockheed Martin.

Chinese authorities are reportedly in possession of F-35 stealth fighter parts after components of the aircraft were “inexplicably diverted to Hong Kong.”

Shipping giant UPS was sending a cockpit canopy and weapons bay door to the U.S. from Australia in late May when it was diverted, Bloomberg reported on Thursday, citing sources.

Both parts were coated with a radar absorbing material that enhances their stealth capabilities, the sources said, and it was not clear why the shipment was diverted to Hong Kong.

On Tuesday, Australian Defense Minister Richard Marles told reporters Tuesday that Australia was aware of the shipment, and was working with the U.S. and Lockheed Martin to see how Canberra can assist in the investigation.

Marles also said it was his understanding that no sensitive parts were in the missing shipment, according to CNN.

Lockheed Martin, UPS and the Pentagon didn’t immediately respond to requests for comment from CNBC.

The F-35 is a fifth-generation stealth fighter made by Lockheed Martin, and Washington controls the sale of these aircraft only to its closest partners and allies.

For example, Turkey was excluded from the F-35 program in 2019 after the country purchased the Russian S-400 anti-aircraft system, which raised fears that the Russian system could be used as an intelligence collection platform to learn about the aircraft’s capabilities.

China has targeted F-35-related U.S. military data in past espionage cases, according to U.S. prosecutors in 2024.

A $24 billion sale of F-35s to Saudi Arabia was approved last week, but some lawmakers in Congress have already expressed concerns over the technology finding its way into Chinese hands.

Congressman Raja Krishnamoorthi (D-IL) said that the U.S. intelligence community has warned that the sale “could put the crown jewels of American military technology within reach of the Chinese Communist Party.”

Users of the fighter jet include Australia and Belgium, as well as the U.S. itself, with other countries like Japan, Canada and Singapore having also ordered the aircraft.

F-35s have also been used by the U.S. during the Iran conflict, with one aircraft suffering damage from enemy fire, according to the Department of Defense.

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Technologies

Oil prices dip as diplomatic hopes for Iran conflict rise

Oil prices fell on Friday after reports of U.S.-Iran talks in New York, though investors remain concerned about inflation and geopolitical tensions.

Oil prices dropped on Friday after a report emerged that U.S. and Iranian negotiators meeting in New York are exploring a step‑by‑step agreement to resolve the confrontation in the Persian Gulf.

November Brent crude futures slipped 1% to $93.66 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate November futures fell 0.68% to $105.86 per barrel.

According to Reuters, a senior Iranian official said the most realistic way forward is for Tehran to permit shipping through the Strait of Hormuz if the United States ends its naval blockade.

The United States and Iran had previously agreed to this approach under a June 17 memorandum of understanding, but the arrangement soon broke down and fighting resumed. It remains unclear what distinguishes the present talks from earlier attempts.

Iran now seeks a return to the June 17 memorandum of understanding before the upcoming U.S. midterm elections, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian told media outlets on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly, according to Al Jazeera.

“It is understood that the two sides have been communicating via mediators,” said David Morrison, a senior market analyst at Trade Nation. Morrison added that investors remain uneasy about persistent inflation, rising energy costs, and the bellicose rhetoric exchanged by the U.S. and Iran at the UN General Assembly in New York.

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Technologies

U.S.-China trade truce extended for two months, Bessent says, as Xi begins state visit

The deal, which was set to expire in November, will now be extended to Jan. 10, Bessent said, noting the need for Beijing to fulfill more deliverables.

The U.S. and China have extended a truce to keep tariffs lower for longer and rare earths flowing, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Wednesday local time.

He was speaking on Fox News, as Chinese President Xi Jinping landed in Washington, D.C. for a state visit through Friday.

Xi and Trump agreed to a one-year trade truce at a meeting in South Korea last October. The deal, which was set to expire in November, will now be extended to Jan. 10, Bessent said. He added that Beijing needs to fulfill more deliverables.

Ahead of this week’s summit, many had expected the truce would be extended by six months or longer.

The U.S. and China should discuss their differences on trade issues on the basis of mutual benefit, without actively imposing restrictions, said Dong Shaopeng, senior researcher at Renmin University of China. He expected the trade truce could be continually improved and extended.

Chinese state media did not immediately note Bessent’s comments on the trade truce.

The two-month extension “suggests to me the U.S. is unsatisfied with China’s offers and wants to keep the heat on, with a bonus being it is more likely that Xi goes to the G20 in Miami,” said Scott Kennedy of the U.S.-based think tank Center for Strategic and International Studies.

Trump visited Beijing in May. The two leaders could also meet alongside an APEC meeting in Shenzhen in November, and the G20 summit in Miami in December.

However, Jens Eskelund, president of the European Chamber of Commerce in China, pointed out that simply extending the trade truce does not address challenges companies face, including the lack of a standardized approach to apply for rare earths export licenses.

Xi said in an official readout for his arrival that he is confident the visit will produce “fruitful results” for both sides. He said the two countries should be partners, not rivals, and work to build a stable relationship where competition and differences are managed. The readout did not mention tariffs, rare earths or artificial intelligence.

Footage streamed on China’s state broadcaster showed U.S. President Donald Trump and First Lady Melania Trump meeting Xi and First Lady of China Peng Liyuan at the foot of the Chinese leader’s jet. The video did not show the U.S. and Chinese leaders shaking hands — it focused on Xi and his wife shaking hands with two children presenting them each with bouquets.

After greeting Xi, Trump told reporters he would discuss the Iran war with the Chinese leader, among “many other subjects.”

Bessent met with Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng in New York ahead of Xi’s arrival in the U.S. The two sides discussed setting up an alert system for AI incidents, according to Bessent.

While executives of major U.S. tech companies plan to join a summit dinner on Thursday, none of their Chinese counterparts are expected to attend.

Politburo Standing Committee Member Cai Qi and China’s top diplomat Wang Yi accompanied Xi, according to state media.

—CNBC’s Eunice Yoon and Ashlee Trujillo contributed to this report.

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