Technologies
Verum Daily Open: Germany’s right wins, Ukraine’s stalemate and air travel incidents
Germany’s AfD party achieves a historic victory in Saxony-Anhalt, moving closer to a state-level absolute majority, while Ukraine remains trapped in a military standoff and global air travel faces disruptions from a Miami cargo plane crash and an Indonesian volcanic eruption.
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Hello, this is Leonie Kidd coming to you from London.
The state is small, but the impact is huge. Voters in Saxony-Anhalt in Germany have delivered a political shock with surging support for right-wing party AfD, in a blow to Chancellor Friedrich Merz.
The Alternative for Germany (AfD) party has won an historic victory in Saxony-Anhalt state elections. The result puts the far-right party on the verge of an absolute majority at state level for the first time since World War II.
The AfD won 44.4% of the vote, with Chancellor Friedrich Merzâs conservatives trailing at 18.3%, and the center-left Social Democrats and environmental Greens both clearing the minimum threshold to enter parliament, according to an exit poll on Sunday.
AfDâs lead candidate in Saxony-Anhalt, Ulrich Siegmund, has campaigned on a promise of strict immigration policies, abandoning the euro and reconnecting with Russia.
Ukraineâs stalemate
Trumpâs envoys, Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff spent the weekend in Moscow and Kyiv, in a bid to break the deadlock in the war between Russia and Ukraine.
Despite three hours of talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin on Saturday, the Kremlin indicated that there had not been a breakthrough.
Meanwhile, Ukraineâs President Volodymyr Zelenskyy told a press conference following the meetings in Kyiv that territorial issues should be discussed âat the levels of leaders.â
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Flight incidents
Investigators are looking into the circumstances behind the crash of an Amazon cargo plane at Miami airport on Sunday that has killed five people and left others critically injured.
The 32-year-old Boeing aircraft overran the runway at around 2 p.m. ET, crashing into vehicles on a road used for airport services.
The incident prompted over 160 flight cancellations and more than 325 delays into Sunday.
Meanwhile in Southeast Asia, hundreds of flights have been disrupted after a volcanic eruption in Indonesia.
The ash from the eruption of Mount Anak Krakatau caused havoc for aviation, impacting flight schedules across the region over the weekend.
Monday markets
Itâs Labour Day in America, so U.S. markets are closed for trade, after falling on Friday following a surprisingly strong August jobs report. The data sparked further speculation that the Federal Reserve could consider hiking rates at its next meeting, however, Trump renewed his threats against this, saying he could halt trade with Americaâs top partners unless the Fed cuts rates.
In Asia, stocks are in the green during Mondayâs session, led higher by technology stocks.
Europeâs lift-off
Isar Aerospace has become the first commercial group to launch a rocket into orbit from Europe. The Spectrum rocket carried satellites into orbit.
Join âSquawk Box Europeâ as we speak to Isar Aerospace about the milestone for the company.
â Leonie Kidd
And Finally…
Sugar is outperforming the stock market this year.
Sugar is getting a lot less sweet for buyers.
Sugar prices surged 21.5% in August, marking its strongest monthly gain since October 2010, when it rose 24%. The United Nationâs Food and Agriculture Organization Food Price Index also rose in August amid broad-based increases, led by sugar.
The surge reflected expectations of lower sugar beet yields in the European Union due to adverse weather, concerns over the impact of El Niño on production prospects in key producing countries in Asia, lower sugar production in Brazil, and Indiaâs announcement of duty-free raw sugar imports,â the organization said in its recent report.
â Deena Zaidi
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Technologies
U.S. Energy Secretary Wright: Iran Nuclear Deal May Never Materialize
U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright suggested that a nuclear agreement with Iran may never come to fruition, indicating the administration might instead focus on degrading Tehran’s nuclear capabilities. His comments reflect growing uncertainty over diplomatic solutions amid escalating military and economic pressure.
U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright stated on Sunday that the United States might not achieve a long-awaited agreement to prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons, as the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict continues into its seventh month.
“There may not be a nuclear deal. It might just come down to dismantling their capabilities,” Wright told ABC News’ “This Week.” “Such an agreement could be delayed until Iran’s next administration. We simply don’t know.”
President Trump has consistently emphasized that stopping Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon remains a key goal of U.S. efforts. Throughout the conflict, he has also attempted to negotiate a deal with Iran, even as energy prices have climbed globally.
Wright’s remarks indicate the administration may aim to stop an Iranian nuclear weapon without signing a formal nuclear agreement.
When asked if his comments suggest the U.S. will continue attacking Iran whenever it tries to reconstruct its nuclear facilities, Wright replied, “You have to eliminate their ability to do so.”
“We are reducing their capacity to build nuclear weapons and, eventually, to deploy them if they succeed,” he said. “This has been a 47-year effort. It’s not easy, but the United States will complete the mission and collaborate with our regional allies.”
Later, during an interview on CBS’ “Face the Nation,” Wright reiterated that President Donald Trump “always prefers a diplomatic resolution and avoids military action unless absolutely necessary.”
“The primary role of our military in the region right now is to prevent the export of Iranian oil or oil-related products, natural gas, or anything else,” he said. “We are strangling their economy to push for either a policy shift from the current regime or a new one.”
Iran vows retaliation
Iranian Parliament Speaker and chief nuclear negotiator Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf declared on Sunday that Iran’s “proportional responses” to U.S. attacks have ended, though he acknowledged the economic toll of the war.
“If they haven’t realized it yet, they should know before it’s too late that the rules have changed and that any future threat to Iran’s interests and security will be met with a ‘faster, heavier, and more severe’ response,” Ghalibaf said in a post on Telegram.
However, Ghalibaf admitted that alongside the fighting, Iran is dealing with serious economic challenges.
“Sharp fluctuations in exchange rates, inflation, unemployment, and market regulation are major issues putting significant strain on people’s livelihoods,” he said.
He also emphasized the importance of relying on domestic production and leveraging technology to create “short-term and lasting solutions.”
Ghalibaf’s statements follow U.S. airstrikes on three Iranian oil tankers. According to U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM), American forces permanently disabled one tanker near Kharg Island and another off Jask. A separate vessel was targeted in the Gulf of Oman.
Mohsen Rezaei, Secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, announced on Sunday that Tehran intends to establish a new restricted area near the Strait of Hormuz, which will cover parts of the Persian Gulf, as reported by Reuters.
CENTCOM stated that the attacks were a response to ballistic missiles launched by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) at two U.S. Navy warships. According to CENTCOM, a U.S. aircraft carrier and a guided-missile destroyer evaded the incoming threats, and no American personnel were injured.
“Let the IRGC hear this: if you fire at our ships, we will impose even greater economic consequences â taking out three more of yours,” said Admiral Brad Cooper, CENTCOM commander, in a statement issued Saturday.
“We will not hesitate to protect American forces and, if required, destroy Iran’s limited and vulnerable oil fleet.”
Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth echoed the sentiment in a post on X, writing: “It’s straightforward: if Iran attacks U.S. Navy ships, we will destroy (and sink) their tankers. All they need to do is stop targeting @USNavy.”
As the third-largest oil producer within OPEC, Iran exported roughly 90% of its crude through Kharg Island prior to the war. Oil exports have been severely disrupted by a U.S.-led blockade initiated in mid-April.
The ongoing conflict between Iran and the U.S. has effectively shut down the Strait of Hormuz â a critical route for global oil supplies â since hostilities began on February 28 with joint American and Israeli airstrikes.
In June, President Donald Trump threatened to occupy Kharg Island as U.S. strikes on Iran continued. More recently, on August 31, he shared an AI-generated video depicting the destruction of Kharg Island.
Expanding sanctions
The attack on oil tankers occurred one day after the Treasury Department imposed sanctions on a small Turkish investment bank and two of its subsidiaries, accusing them of supporting financing for a branch of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard.
These actions are part of broader sanctions introduced by the Trump administration in late August, targeting Iran’s access to digital currencies, advanced technology procurement, gold reserves, commercial aviation, and maritime trade.
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said last month that the country’s foreign trade has declined sharply.
According to the World Bank, Iran’s GDP contracted by 2.7% in the year ending March, largely due to economic disruption from widespread protests last year and increased regional tensions. Inflation reached 62.2% in February, with food prices rising to a record high of 99%, per the World Bank. A New York Times report cited an Iranian official estimating that the war has resulted in the loss of one million jobs.
Technologies
Investors Turn to Upcoming Inflation Data as Yields Reach Record Levels
Strong August job gains and record-high Treasury yields have intensified investor scrutiny ahead of Thursday and Friday’s inflation data releases, as market participants prepare for the Federal Reserve’s upcoming rate decision.
Following this weekâs much hotter-than-expected August jobs report, next weekâs inflation data takes on even greater importance for investors as they try to determine where the Federal Reserve could go with interest rates later this month. On Friday, nonfarm payrolls rose 162,000 last month, well above the Dow Jones forecast of 53,000, while the unemployment rate came in line with expectations at 4.1%. July and June also saw upward revisions. Stocks fell as investors recalibrated their expectations on the Fedâs rate decision when it meets Sept. 15-16. Fed funds futures pricing showed bets for a hike at that meeting grew to 58% from 49.4% the day before, according to the CME FedWatch tool. With the report supporting Fed Chairman Kevin Warshâs recent comments that the labor market is “quite stable,” the release of Augustâs producer and consumer price index readings on Thursday and Friday, respectively, will serve as the final piece in the rate path puzzle for investors. “Whatâs been happening in the market now is that itâs the tug of war between those who are worried that the Fed will be raising rates and those who think that the Fed will remain on the sidelines,” said Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research. That focus is exacerbated by the fact that there also arenât many other competing catalysts next week, Stovall noted. Unless Russian President Vladimir Putin suddenly says heâs going to halt the war in Ukraine or unless Iran wishes to negotiate a ceasefire agreement, he believes that traders are “going to focus on the hard data.” “Theyâre going to all come from Missouri and say, âShow meâ,” he said. Yields still in play While some like Ameripriseâs Anthony Saglimbene believe the market could be overreacting to the prospect of a rate hike this month, thereâs another force that could weigh on equities next week: Treasury yields. This past week, the yield on the 10-year Treasury note rose to its highest level since November 2023. The 2-year note yield also reached its highest since January 2025. Those moves came amid a broader run-up in global bond yields, spurred in part by growing inflation fears as energy rises remain elevated from the ongoing conflict in the Middle East. “Yields are becoming a larger deal for the market,” said Saglimbene, his firmâs chief market strategist. “Markets see volatility increase when longer-term rates are moving higher, and I think that is going to be an underlying issue for the market for the rest of this year.” Thatâs especially the case if the 10-year yield starts “moving closer to 5%,” he said. “Markets would have a difficult time with that.” The S & P 500 and Nasdaq Composite finished the week in positive territory, rising 0.1% and 0.4%, respectively. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, on the other hand, fell about 0.3%. The market is closed on Monday for the Labor Day holiday. Week ahead calendar All times ET. Monday, Sept. 7 U.S. markets closed for Labor Day Tuesday, Sept. 8 6 a.m.: NFIB Small Business Index (August) 3 p.m.: Consumer credit (July) Wednesday, Sept. 9 None. Thursday, Sept. 10 8:30 a.m.: Initial jobless claims (week ended Sept. 5) 8:30 a.m.: Producer price index (August) 10 a.m.: Existing home sales (August) 10 a.m.: Wholesale inventories (July) Friday, Sept. 11 8:30 a.m.: Consumer price index (August) 10 a.m.: Consumer sentiment (preliminary, September)
Technologies
U.S. Energy Secretary Wright Signals Uncertainty About Potential Iran Nuclear Agreement
U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright warned that a nuclear agreement with Iran may never materialize, indicating the U.S. may prioritize military action over diplomacy amid escalating tensions.
U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright on Sunday said the U.S. may not reach an elusive deal to constrain Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon, as the U.S.-Iran conflict enters its seventh month.
âThere may not be a nuclear agreement. It may be simply destroying their capabilities to do it,â Wright said on ABC Newsâ âThis Week.â âAn agreement may await the next administration in Iran. We simply donât know that.â
Trump has repeatedly said preventing Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon is a central objective of the U.S. campaign. He has also sought a negotiated deal with Iran throughout the war, which has sent energy prices soaring worldwide.
Wrightâs comments suggest the administration may pursue its goal of preventing an Iranian nuclear weapon without reaching a negotiated nuclear agreement.
Pressed on whether Wrightâs comments mean the U.S. will continue striking Iran when it attempts to rebuild its nuclear infrastructure, the energy secretary said, âYou have to destroy their capabilities to do it.â
âWe are degrading their capacity to develop nuclear weapons and ultimately to deliver them if they develop them,â he said. âIt is a 47-year-long effort. This is not trivial, but the United States will get the job done and we will work in cooperation with our allies in the region.â
Asked about his comments again later during an appearance on CBSâ âFace the Nation,â Wright said President Donald Trumpâs preference âis always to have a negotiated settlement and not use a military solution unless absolutely necessary.â
âThe biggest role of our military in the region right now is to stop the export of any Iranian crude or crude-related products, natural gas, whatever,â he said. âWe are strangling their economy to try to bring either a change in policy from the existing regime or a new regime.â
Iran threatens the U.S.
Iranâs âproportionate responsesâ to U.S. attacks are over, the countryâs parliament speaker and top negotiator Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf said Sunday, while acknowledging the economic impact of the war.
âIf they havenât understood by now, they should understand before itâs too late that the rules of the game have changed and that from now on, any violation of Iranâs interests and security will receive a âfaster, heavier, and more painfulâ response,â Ghalibaf said in a post on Telegram.
But Ghalibaf added that alongside the military conflict, Iran faces severe economic pressures.
âSevere fluctuations in the exchange rate, inflation, unemployment, and market management are fundamental challenges that have put serious pressure on peopleâs livelihoods,â Ghalibaf said.
He also stressed the need to rely more on domestic production and use technology to âdevise short-term and permanent solutions.â
Ghalibafâs remarks come after U.S. forces struck three Iranian crude oil carriers. U.S. Central Command said it permanently disabled one crude oil carrier off the coast of Kharg Island and one near Jask. Another oil tanker was attacked in the Gulf of Oman.
Mohsen Rezaei, the Secretary of Iranâs Supreme National Security Council, in Sunday said Tehran plans to announce a new restriction zone outside the Strait of Hormuz, Reuters reported. The restriction zone will include areas in the Gulf, he said.
CENTCOM said the attacks were in retaliation for ballistic missiles the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps launched toward two Navy warships in the region. According to CENTCOM, a U.S. aircraft carrier and guided-missile destroyer successfully evaded multiple attacks, and no American personnel were harmed.
âLet the message to the IRGC be clear: If you shoot at two of our ships, we will impose an even higher economic cost âtaking out three of yours,â Admiral Brad Cooper, CENTCOM commander, said in a statement Saturday. âWe will not hesitate to defend American forces, and if necessary, destroy Iranâs limited and exposed oil fleet.â
Defense Sec. Pete Hegseth later wrote in a post on X: âItâs simple: if Iran shoots at U.S. ships, we will destroy (and sink) their oil tankers. All they have to do is not shoot at @USNavy.â
Iran is the third-largest producer in the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and exported 90% of its crude via Kharg Island before the war. Flows have been disrupted by a U.S. blockade of Iranian oil exports, which began in mid-April.
The conflict between Iran and the U.S. has effectively shut the Strait of Hormuz, a key waterway for the worldâs oil supply before the war began on Feb. 28 with American and Israeli airstrikes.
U.S. President Donald Trump threatened in June to seize Kharg Island as the U.S. continued military strikes against Iran. Most recently, on Aug. 31, he posted an artificial intelligence-generated video of Kharg Island being blown up.
Tightening sanctions
The strike on the oil tankers came a day after the Treasury Department announced sanctions against a small Turkish investment bank and two of its subsidiaries, which the U.S. accuses of facilitating funds for an arm of Iranâs Revolutionary Guard.
The measures are part of sweeping sanctions the Trump administration launched in late August targeting Iranâs access to digital assets, advanced technology procurement, gold reserves, commercial aviation and shipping.
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said late last month that the countryâs trade has fallen sharply.
Iranâs gross domestic product is estimated to have contracted by 2.7% in the year ending March, according to the World Bank, citing economic disruption from last yearâs widespread protests and intensified hostilities in the region.
Inflation surged to 62.2% in February, with food price inflation reaching a historical high of 99%, according to the World Bank. An Iranian official estimated that the war has caused the loss of one million jobs, according to the New York Times.
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