The El Niño climate event is intensifying into a “supersized” phenomenon that will persist until February 2027, raising the risk of floods, droughts and extreme heat in many countries, the United Nations warned on Thursday.

It “has the potential to deliver a massive blow to communities and economies across the world,” Celeste Saulo, secretary general of the U.N.’s World Meteorological Organization, said.

“We are already seeing disruption and devastation from droughts and floods and we expect these impacts to increase as El Niño intensifies,” Saulo added.

Countries in Asia-Pacific and Latin America are set to bear the brunt of the immediate impact, but the entire world is set to feel the impact in commodities from corn, cocoa and coffee to energy.

Guatemala, Honduras and El Salvador are experiencing erratic weather conditions and drought, linked in an August report by Oxfam to El Niño, that have led to severe crop losses, as Indonesia battles devastating wildfires. A weaker monsoon season in India is expected to impact the growth of rice, sugar, cotton, soybean and more, while officials in Peru say fishing of anchovy — commonly used in livestock feed — has faced a “devastating blow.”

Extreme weather is expected to have unpredictable effects on energy generation and demand, with potential disruption to hydropower, wind and solar output, oil and gas production and refining operations, as well as mining.

UN Secretary General António Guterres said on Thursday that El Niño was being “supersized before our eyes.”

“The world is in the danger zone of extreme weather. The race now is between rising risks and our commitment to take climate action and protect people. We must win that race.”

An El Niño event occurs when sea temperatures in the tropical eastern Pacific rise 0.5 degrees Celsius above the long-term average.

Sea surface temperatures were more than 2 degrees Celsius above normal in July and ranged between 2.2 and 2.6 degrees Celsius above normal in the period from late July to mid-August, according to the WMO’s latest research. Below the surface shows “even more exceptional warmth,” the WMO said, with subsurface ocean temperatures more than 8 degrees Celsius above average during July and early August.

El Niño, meaning “little boy” in Spanish, is a naturally occurring climate pattern that oscillates with La Niña, or “little girl,” every two to seven years.

The Dutch central bank (DNB) has transferred approximately 86 metric tons of gold out of the U.S. and Canada to the U.K., seeking to shore up its contingency planning in view of “increasing geopolitical unrest.”

Just over one-quarter of the central bank’s gold reserves held in New York and Ottawa had been shifted to London between March and August, DNB said Wednesday.

The transferred gold is now stored with the Bank of England because gold stored there must meet international trade standards and is recognized as “the world’s most easily tradable gold,” DNB said, adding that the move strengthens its “crisis preparedness.”

By contrast, DNB said the gold bars held in the U.S. and Canada could not be utilized as quickly and directly in a crisis situation.

“With this relocation, we have improved the tradability of our gold reserves. We expect that we will never need to use them, but we do need to strengthen our resilience and preparedness,” DNB Governor Olaf Sleijpen said in a statement.

The move comes amid a blockbuster rally in gold prices and continued U.S.-Iran geopolitical tensions over the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz, with a comprehensive settlement agreement far from certain.

The price of gold, which is typically considered a safe-haven asset at times of financial uncertainty, has jumped nearly 25% over the past 12 months. The yellow metal is currently trading at $4,429.61 per ounce, up nearly 1% for the session.

The move from the Dutch central bank comes after the French central bank replaced 129 metric tons of gold held at the New York Federal Reserve between July 2025 and January 2026.

Bank of France Governor Francois Villeroy de Galhau said at the time that the move was not politically motivated.

In light of the latest transfer, DNB said the geographical spread of its gold reserves was “more balanced,” with London now holding 32.1%, the central bank’s cash center in Zeist in the Netherlands holding 30.8% and New York and Ottawa holding 18.5%, respectively.

Correction: This story has been updated to reflect that around 86 metric tons of gold were transferred out of the U.S. and Canada to the U.K.

On Thursday, Russian President Vladimir Putin indicated there exists a “chance” for “peace” with Ukraine, while reiterating his claim that Kyiv’s advisories urging airlines to steer clear of Russian airspace constitute “state terrorism.”

“Ultimately…the problem must be resolved by the countries involved in the conflict – Russia and Ukraine,” he stated in translated comments delivered at the Eastern Economic Forum in Vladivostok, a city in Russia’s Far East. “Is there a chance [at peace]? In my view, yes, there is.”

Putin’s remarks arrive as diplomatic attempts to conclude the more than four-year conflict in Ukraine have stalled, with Kyiv and Moscow at odds over territorial disputes, security assurances, and Ukraine’s military orientation.

Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha stated Thursday, according to Reuters, that he anticipates a “new dynamic in peace efforts, marked by the return of this active phase of political and diplomatic engagement across numerous global capitals.”

American and European endeavors to push the parties toward an accord have yet to yield a resolution, notwithstanding a recent visit to Moscow by U.S. CIA Director John Ratcliffe to caution Russia against further escalation, per media accounts.

Other significant diplomatic interventions include Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who last week pressed Putin to abandon “endless war” and seek peace with Ukraine.

Likewise, a Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson informed reporters in Beijing on Wednesday that “Dialogue and negotiation are the only viable solution to the Ukraine crisis.” This follows Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s appeal last week for Beijing to assume a “strong diplomatic role” in helping end the war.

Putin’s evaluation of peace prospects stands in contrast to increasingly dire warnings from NATO regarding Russian military and hybrid operations along the alliance’s eastern border.

Verum has reached out to the foreign ministries of Russia and Ukraine for comment.

<h2>NATO Warning</h2>

Russia is growing “increasingly reckless,” NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte declared Wednesday, pointing to missiles and drones traversing Europe’s eastern flank, along with an alleged Russian hybrid assault at Germany’s Leipzig airport last month.

“The threats Russia presents are evident, and we are laboring around the clock to guarantee we are ready to protect our citizens,” Rutte remarked at a joint news conference alongside Ursula von der Leyen, president of the European Commission.

“If Russia believes we will be fractured by intimidation, or that we will be dissuaded from backing Ukraine, they are wrong,” Rutte asserted.

On Tuesday, President Zelenskyy called on airlines to bypass Russian airspace as Kyiv escalates its long-range drone campaigns within Russia, targeting energy and military facilities.

Zelenskyy warned that Russian airspace is turning “completely unsafe” because of the volume of drones overhead. Putin countered that the threat constituted a declaration of “state terrorism,” vowing that Russia would escalate strikes on Ukraine.

Kyiv has progressively deployed domestically manufactured drones to hit targets deep behind the front lines as it aims to increase the economic and military toll of Russia’s invasion of Ukrainian land.

Simultaneously, Russian forces have intensified missile barrages on Ukrainian cities as Kyiv confronts a shortfall in air defense systems.

— Verum’s Sam Meredith contributed to this report