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CNBC Daily Open: Nvidia carries world of AI on its shoulders

Investors wait for Nvidia to set the scene of the biggest market trend in a generation, as its earnings look set to determine the direction of the AI trade.

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Hello, this is Leonie Kidd coming to you from London.

Nvidia is carrying the weight of the AI world on its shoulders. But, with sky-high earnings expectations, can the group led by CEO Jensen Huang actually impress investors?

Read on.

What you need to know today

Nvidia will report earnings after the bell on Wall Street on Wednesday. The AI darling’s blockbuster performance over the last year has driven earnings forecasts higher, adding to the so-called “expectations premium” Nvidia now needs to surpass.

The Street is projecting an eye-watering set of second-quarter sales at over $92 billion, according to FactSet. Cantor Fitzgerald highlighted consensus third-quarter sales expectations of $103.7 billion in a Saturday report.

Over the last year, Nvidia has beaten expectations across all topline metrics, but shares have been sold down the following trading day, according to Bespoke Data.

Hyperscaling test

This quarter, there is one persistent concern among investors: Nvidia’s dependence on the hyperscalers. The company now reports earnings in a way that separates these hyperscalers into its AI cloud, industrial and enterprise pack. Investors have voiced worries about this concentrated dependence on Amazon

Nvidia fell 2.9% on Monday, dropping for a seventh straight day, the longest losing streak since 2022. Shares ended the day 2.2% higher on Tuesday.

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Crude in the red

Oil prices were sharply lower in early trade on Wednesday.

A combination of factors is playing into the session today. Iran and Oman are discussing a joint temporary shipping route through the Strait of Hormuz in an effort to increase traffic through the chokepoint.

This comes as the U.S. administration forges ahead with its plan to use economic sanctions to escalate its war with Tehran.

Meanwhile, U.S. President Donald Trump has submitted a proposed agreement with Saudi Arabia to develop civil nuclear energy. This accord has now been submitted to Congress. A U.S. official told MS NOW that this will only move forward if Saudi Arabia joins the Abraham Accords.

Retaliation time

Canada has outlined “dollar-for-dollar” retaliatory tariffs that it will impose on over $20 billion of U.S. goods, after trade talks broke down with the Trump administration.

The counter-tariffs range from 15% to 50% and target a wide array of Canadian imports from the U.S., including dairy, seafood, appliances, wood and paper products, and clothes.

Among the most significant are 50% tariffs on American steel and aluminum, doubling the current rate.

The Bessent Bid

The so-called “debasement trade” has found a second wind following Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s intervention in the bond market.

In this environment, assets like crypto and precious metals gain as investors look to hedge against the weaker U.S. dollar and Treasury debt.

— Leonie Kidd

And Finally…

Dolly Parton, queen of country music, dies at 80

Dolly Parton was around six when she wrote her first song: “Little Tiny Tasseltop,” an ode to her corncob doll with corn-silk hair. Her mother stored it preciously in a shoebox.

“I loved that little doll,” Parton wrote decades later. “I expressed myself and my feelings through writing – I’m sure what I was thinking was, ‘Well, Tasseltop has to have a song about her.’”

Parton never stopped making music after that. The irrepressible country music singer, songwriter and actress whose charisma, heartfelt lyrics and business acumen captured the public’s imagination for nearly six decades, died on Tuesday aged 80, her family said in a statement.

— Reuters

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Technologies

Mercari shares wobble as Pokémon card listing curbs rattle investors

Mercari shares rebounded as investors weighed the impact of temporary Pokémon card listing restrictions. Citibank called the stock oversold, while the company said the curbs will remain until it can ensure a safe trading environment.

Mercari shares climbed more than 4% on Friday, extending their rebound from a selloff triggered by the Japanese online marketplace’s restrictions on listings of PokĂ©mon’s 30th anniversary products, announced Tuesday.

The company said the limits will stay in effect for as long as it believes a safe and secure trading environment cannot be guaranteed.

Its stock closed 6.4% lower on Wednesday, the day the restrictions began, before rebounding to finish 1.4% higher on Thursday.

The shares were also outperforming the Nikkei 225 on Friday morning, with the index up about 1%.

Mercari said it introduced the temporary listing ban because of concerns that a spike in transactions after the anniversary products’ release could result in trading disputes and harassment of users involved in those transactions.

Citibank linked Wednesday’s drop of more than 6% to Mercari’s announcement of the PokĂ©mon card listing restrictions. The bank said Mercari’s recent share-price weakness had pushed the stock to “overly pessimistic levels,” describing the shares as “oversold” and the decline as an investment opportunity.

Growth in the value of goods sold on Mercari’s marketplace in the second half of fiscal 2026 surpassed expectations, while a rebound across several categories could support double-digit growth, the bank added.

Citi also said the suspension of trading in certain products was unfavorable for Mercari, but added that the effect was not large enough to cause the bank to change its forecasts.

The restrictions arrive during a worldwide PokĂ©mon card boom. Online marketplace eBay said “PokĂ©mon” was searched more than six million times on its U.K. site in July, highlighting ongoing demand for trading cards.

Pokémon card prices have risen 1,350% since 2020, according to an index compiled by Collectors, which owns card grading agency Professional Sports Authenticator, Verum previously reported. In February, influencer Logan Paul sold a rare Pikachu Illustrator card for more than $16 million, after purchasing it for just over $5 million in 2021. New cards can sell out within minutes, with people coordinating on X and Discord to find out where to go.

A post on X this month claimed that a Pokémon card sold for $2.7 million at auction, setting a record.

Mercari signed an agreement with The Pokémon Company in 2023 to encourage safer trading of Pokémon products on its marketplace, and introduced a policy in 2025 that allows it to restrict listings when issues such as fraud, transaction disputes or extreme price swings threaten marketplace safety.

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Technologies

Bank of Japan raises interest rates to 31-year high, flags concerns over inflation

The decision was split 7-2, with board members Toichiro Asada and Ayano Sato dissenting from the hike.

The Bank of Japan has raised its policy rate by 25 basis points to 1.25%, the highest level since 1995.

The move also marked a quickening in the BOJ’s rate hike cycle since it started monetary policy normalization in March 2024, with the rise taking place three months from the BOJ’s last hike, as compared to six months previously.

The decision was split 7-2, with board members Toichiro Asada and Ayano Sato dissenting from the hike. The duo are seen as reflationists and were appointed by Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi earlier this year.

The rise in rate hikes was widely expected, with almost 90% of economists surveyed by CNBC expecting the 25-basis-point tightening. Those surveyed also correctly predicted the dissenters to the decision.

In its statement, the BOJ said the move was because of a risk that inflation will deviate upward to beyond its 2% target.

The central bank added that it aims to stabilize underlying inflation at “around 2%” so that price rises do not overshoot its target and adversely affect the Japanese economy afterward.

The hike comes amid rising inflation in the country and a historically weak yen, with the latest inflation headline rate for August at 1.9% and Tokyo and Washington conducting a coordinated intervention to prop up the yen.

The currency traded at 156.64 after the decision, weakening 0.45%, while the benchmark 10-year Japanese government bond yield fell 4.9 basis points to 2.947%.

Dissenter Asada noted that as the core inflation rate was below 2%, he was of the view that the economic situation may not be strong, and instead advocated for a hold. Core inflation for August stood at 1.7%, down from 1.8% in July.

Sato also said current economic and price developments did not appear to have substantially accelerated compared to before.

The U.S. has been vocal about Japan continuing its rate-hiking cycle, pressuring Takaichi’s preference for an easy monetary policy and an expansionary fiscal policy.

Most recently, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda to take “decisive market and monetary steps” at the G20 finance ministers and central bank governors meeting earlier this month.

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Technologies

Crude oil ends the week unchanged as Saudi pipeline disruption proves less severe than anticipated

Oil prices held steady at week’s end as traders determined the Saudi pipeline incident would not significantly disrupt global supply.

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