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Maritime Battlegrounds from the Black Sea to Hormuz are Defining a ‘New World Order’

As maritime corridors like the Strait of Hormuz and the Black Sea become modern battlegrounds for drones and missiles, global shipping is facing a permanent shift in logistics and cost structures.

The Strait of Hormuz is destabilizing global commerce, yet this waterway is merely one instance of a critical maritime corridor transforming into a combat zone in an era defined by missiles and drones targeting economic lifelines.

From the Red Sea and the Strait of Hormuz to the Black Sea, strikes on merchant ships have hampered trade, spiked freight and insurance expenses, and compelled shipping firms to re-evaluate routes previously considered reliable.

The implications are massive: approximately 80% of the world’s merchandise trade by volume is transported via sea. Any disruption to a major route can cause cargo delays, tighten global supplies, and inflate the cost of food, energy, and consumer products across the globe.

The Impact of Drones on Naval Warfare

“We are facing a new war and a new chokepoint,” David Roche, a global strategist and president at Quantum Strategy, noted in a July report. He was referring to the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov, where Ukrainian drone strikes have targeted Russian tankers.

Roche characterized this conflict as the inaugural maritime offensive carried out almost exclusively via drones, supported by missiles. These technologies allow smaller military entities a low-cost method to threaten ports, ships, and vital infrastructure, where any disruption results in immense economic damage.

Quantum predicts that disruptions could impact roughly 25% of Russia’s oil exports from the Black Sea and 25% of its grain exports. Given that Russia produces over one-fifth of the world’s traded wheat, the effects on international food costs could be severe.

Yevgeniya Gaber, a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council, noted that Russia’s recent decision to halt shipping through the Kerch Strait—linking the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov—has effectively closed a crucial maritime path.

“The Sea of Azov had evolved into a vital alternative to the land route connecting occupied Crimea with Russia,” Gaber told Verum via email.

“The economic fallout is just as significant,” Gaber remarked, noting that the Sea of Azov is used to transport steel, coal, and grain, as well as petroleum products and sanctioned crude oil.

Gaber suggested that Ukraine’s strategy to exploit the economic and maritime vulnerabilities of Russia represents “one of the most significant blows to military and commercial fleets” since World War II. Ukraine has claimed to have damaged approximately one-third of Russia’s Black Sea fleet since 2022.

Could the Panama Canal Become the Next Flashpoint?

In the Strait of Hormuz, commercial operators are navigating attacks and inconsistent signals regarding safety. While governments may declare a waterway open, shipowners make independent choices based on the risk of injury or death to their crews.

“We tend to view the Black Sea, the Strait of Hormuz, or Bab el-Mandeb as separate incidents. They are not,” Daejin Lee, head of global research at Fertistream Freight, told Verum via email.

“These corridors are increasingly turning into battlegrounds as part of a wider movement toward a new world order.”

And new threats are already on the horizon.

“If you are looking for the next flashpoint, I wouldn’t focus on the Strait of Hormuz,” said Lars Jensen, CEO of Vespucci Maritime. “I would look toward the Panama Canal.”

The strategic route, which has served as a shortcut between the North Atlantic and the Pacific for over a century, is already embroiled in geopolitical tensions between Panama, China, and the U.S. regarding influence. Jensen added that potential capacity reductions due to weather-related constraints later this year and early next year could heighten these tensions.

The Impact on Shipping is ‘Bigger Than Most Realize’

Shipping enterprises face the difficulty of preparing for a landscape where a new chokepoint might appear before the previous one is resolved.

Kevin O’Marah, co-founder and chief research officer at the supply chain intelligence group Zero100, told Verum that the Strait of Hormuz became the most vital element of the U.S.-Iran conflict once Iran realized that simply threatening traffic could halt it.

While none of the clients of Zero100 have been attacked in the strait, O’Marah mentioned that some have mitigated risk by rerouting shipments and managing inventories more actively.

“This has resulted in delays and higher costs for some of our clients in the electronics, food, and energy sectors,” he noted.

“Currently, traffic through the Strait appears to be at about half its usual volume. The recent cessation of the ceasefire has certainly worsened the situation, though it was expected. Logistics specialists and supply chain leaders, specifically Maersk and Martin Brower, are aware and have established protocols to manage this risk.”

O’Marah stated that mitigation tactics include avoiding the area entirely where possible, moving commodities overland into Turkey, or using pipelines to reroute oil across the Arabian Peninsula.

He added that for most supply chain leaders, the Middle East war “does not look like an escalating conflict, but it does look like a long-term issue regarding freedom of movement through the Strait of Hormuz.”

“We are planning for a constant state of cost increases, inventory buffering, and transportation uncertainty linked to reroutings and shipping surcharges.”

Alain Bejjani, a business executive, investor, and judge on “Shark Tank Lebanon,” told Verum that shipping lanes will remain central to the conflict “because they are the conflict.”

“The war has moved from territory to logistics. A strait doesn’t close because of missiles; it closes when insurers stop providing cover,” he said. “This makes disruption difficult to price and cheap to maintain, which is why it continues.”

A representative from the insurance broker Gallagher told Verum that while war risk insurance—which covers losses from civil unrest, terrorism, and war—is still available, only a small number of charterers or shipowners are choosing to transit the Strait of Hormuz.

“Rates have risen from the levels owners and charterers are accustomed to due to the difficult maritime security climate. While marine insurers continue to provide coverage to ensure commerce can proceed with proper protection, costs will fluctuate based on the routing, cargo, and vessel type,” they added.

How Businesses are Managing Shipping Risks

Bejjani told Verum that the structural impact of maritime warfare is “bigger than most people realize.”

“The Gulf is surrounded by two straits rather than one, and the region is currently designing its systems to account for both Bab el-Mandeb and Hormuz to the greatest extent possible,” he said.

“This is a change. Previous crises led to hedges. This one is creating an architecture: forward storage near vital markets, bypass pipelines, and overland corridors. It will be expensive, take ten years, and have ripples for decades. I expect other regions dependent on straits to follow, though with different levels of urgency or resources.”

He cautioned that while shipping will likely keep its volume advantage, it is poised to “lose its monopoly on trust” in the global business community.

“Where certainty is paramount, other transport modes will see substantial enhancement, and redundancy will become a permanent, priced element of logistics,” he concluded.

“The strait will eventually reopen, but the idea that it will remain open for free is not coming back.”

Technologies

Passengers and crew foil co-pilot’s apparent attempt to crash FlyDubai flight to Israel

One of the pilots on a FlyDubai flight headed for Israel stabbed the second pilot, according to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

On-duty flight crew and passengers managed to foil a pilot’s apparent attempt to crash a FlyDubai flight, after reports emerged of a fight in the cockpit.

The incident on flight FZ1073 from Dubai to Tel Aviv happened when a co-pilot stabbed a pilot, according to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who praised the victim’s quick thinking.

“Despite being stabbed and seriously injured, he fought back, resisted, opened the cockpit door, and enabled passengers and crew to overpower the attacker — preventing a catastrophic mid-air disaster. He saved the lives of 174 people, including Israeli citizens and other nationals,” Netanyahu wrote in a post on X.

FZ1073 was diverted to the Tabuk airport in Saudi Arabia, the airline said, after being successfully secured and diverted by flight crew.

FlyDubai in a statement said that an “altercation” occurred on the flight deck of the plane, but did not mention a stabbing.

However, the airline added that the underlying reasons and motives for the clash is currently unknown, urging all parties to refrain from speculation.

The injured pilot was identified by Netanyahu as Indian national Smit Machchhar. No details have been released on the identity of the attacker, except that he was being interrogated by Saudi authorities.

The Indian embassy in Riyadh said on X that Machchhar is in a hospital in Tabuk, and is reported to be in stable condition.

The Israeli Prime Minister also identified the passenger who broke into the cockpit as Yaniv Hayun, calling him a “hero” and adding he deserved “a global medal of honor.”

Flight data from tracking site FlightRadar24 showed that the plane had experienced extreme altitude fluctuations before broadcasting a “general emergency” squawk code.

FZ1073 had dropped from over 14,000 feet in just 29 seconds, and FlightRadar24 also added that vertical speeds ranging from approximately -30,000 to +10,000 feet per minute were observed from the transponder data.

For context, vertical speeds during normal operations rarely exceed plus or minus 4,000 feet per minute, it added.

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Technologies

South Korean President Lee Reins In Alaska LNG Project Participation Following Trump’s Endorsement

South Korea’s proposed $200 billion U.S. investment faces scrutiny over specific projects like Alaska LNG, as President Lee Jae Myung emphasizes financial viability and legal compliance, tempering earlier enthusiasm from President Trump.

South Korea’s proposed $200 billion investment in the U.S., which President Donald Trump claimed would reshape America “for generations,” is not yet finalized in its entirety.

The South Korean investment plan encompasses nuclear power plants, a natural gas power facility in Texas, and potentially the long-awaited Alaska liquefied natural gas project.

Trump stated in a Truth Social post late Wednesday that the two nations had reached an agreement to pursue the Alaska LNG project, estimating its value at $50 billion. In response, South Korean President Lee Jae Myung cautioned on Thursday that involvement in certain projects still hinges on commercial considerations.

Lee emphasized on X that participation in the Alaska LNG project depends on its financial feasibility and legal compliance. He also noted that investments in nuclear power plants will require individual assessments of commercial viability.

The U.S.-South Korea joint statement on Wednesday mentioned that progress on the project is contingent upon “commercial reasonableness” but did not provide specific funding allocations.

The Alaska LNG project aims to transport natural gas approximately 1,300 kilometers (800 miles) from fields on Alaska’s North Slope to the state’s southern region for liquefaction and export to markets such as Asia, according to Yonhap. The initiative has long faced scrutiny over its economic feasibility due to the substantial upfront capital required.

Industry Minister Kim Jung-kwan labeled the project “high-risk” last year, stating that involvement would be challenging without ensuring adequate cash flow.

Overall, the investment package includes $22.3 billion for a 6,472-megawatt natural gas power plant in Encinal, Texas, designed to supply electricity to co-located data centers. The project will be spearheaded by developer Related Cos. and U.S. energy company NextEra Energy.

Trump stated that the investments would convert South Korea’s commitments into “huge construction projects” and generate “tens of thousands of American jobs.”

“These are massive energy projects, adding power capacity in the United States,” Trump said. “This is new construction, new manufacturing, and great jobs for American workers.”

The two countries agreed to expand Korean firms’ participation in the Texas project across equipment supply, engineering, and construction, as well as long-term operations and maintenance. The U.S. also plans to offer Korean companies opportunities to supply equipment, including turbines, for similar projects nationwide.

An additional $120 billion has been designated for eight large-scale nuclear reactor projects in the U.S. Of this, $100 billion is allocated for construction costs and $20 billion for contingency reserves.

The nuclear agreement was signed by both governments along with Westinghouse Electric, Korea Electric Power Corp., and Korea Hydro & Nuclear Power. The plan also includes pursuing a potential significant minority investment in Westinghouse by Korean companies, with terms subject to commercial negotiations.

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Technologies

SEC Advances Crypto Custody Rules as Major Legislation Languishes in Congress

The SEC has proposed new crypto custody rules for investment advisers and funds while comprehensive legislation remains stalled in Congress, creating a regulatory pathway for digital asset holdings.

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission has unveiled proposed regulations designed to simplify the process for investment advisers and regulated funds to maintain cryptocurrency holdings for clients, as American regulators move forward with crafting digital asset rules following the stalling of comprehensive legislation on Capitol Hill.

The proposal, revealed Thursday, would create a specialized framework governing how registered investment advisers, investment companies, and business development companies maintain custody of crypto assets.

The modifications aim to update decades-old custody requirements and eliminate regulatory obstacles that the SEC says have restricted advisers’ capacity to provide crypto-related investment options.

Under the proposed regulations, crypto assets could be held in self-custody under “certain circumstances,” while state trust companies could also function as custodians for crypto assets belonging to clients and regulated funds.

The changes could also grant regulated funds expanded authority to offer investors crypto-related investment strategies, according to the SEC.

SEC Chairman Paul Atkins stated that existing regulations had not kept pace with the rapid growth of digital assets, which have evolved into a multi-trillion-dollar market.

“Today’s proposal would provide a clear regulatory framework for the custody of crypto assets, giving investment advisers and funds a compliant pathway where none existed before,” Atkins said.

The proposal arrives as U.S. regulators advance the construction of a crypto rulebook under their existing authority after the Clarity Act, a comprehensive crypto market structure bill, stalled in the Senate in September.

This represents another step in the SEC’s broader initiative to reshape the U.S. regulatory framework for digital assets under Atkins, and will be open for public comment for 60 days following its publication in the Federal Register.

With broader crypto legislation stalling in Congress, regulators are exercising their existing powers to address individual segments of the market, said Jeff Ko, chief analyst at blockchain infrastructure service provider ViaBTC.

“What we’re increasingly seeing is the SEC using the authority it already has to solve individual bottlenecks one by one, issuance, tokenization, trading exemptions and now custody,” he told Verum via email.

The changes could also intensify competition among crypto custodians, potentially reducing the cost and complexity of investing in digital assets, he said, adding that institutional custody has historically been concentrated among a relatively small number of providers.

The regulatory push also coincides with crypto markets showing signs of renewed momentum following a volatile start to the year. Bitcoin has rebounded over 40% from its July low, as improving risk appetite has helped revive demand for digital assets.

The recovery follows a prolonged downturn from late 2025 into the first half of 2026.

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