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From Hormuz to the Black Sea: Maritime battlefields are shaping ‘a new world order’

Attacks near the Strait of Hormuz, Red Sea and Black Sea are pushing shipowners to reroute cargo and rethink global trade risks.

The Strait of Hormuz is rattling global trade, but the waterway is just one example of a vital maritime corridor becoming a frontline, in a new age of drones and missiles targeting economic lifelines.

From the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea to the Black Sea, attacks on commercial vessels have disrupted trade, raised insurance and freight costs, and forced shipping companies to reconsider routes once treated as dependable.

The stakes are high: roughly 80% of global merchandise trade by volume moves by sea. Disrupting even one major route can delay cargo, tighten supplies and drive up prices for energy, food and consumer goods thousands of miles away.

How drones are changing maritime warfare

“We have a new chokepoint and a new war,” David Roche, president and global strategist at Quantum Strategy, wrote in a July report, referring to the Sea of Azov, where Ukrainian drones have been striking Russian tankers, and the Black Sea.

Roche described this fighting as the first maritime offensive conducted almost entirely with drones, supplemented by missiles. Such weapons give smaller military forces a cheaper means of threatening ships, ports and other infrastructure whose disruption carries a huge economic cost.

Quantum estimates that about 25% of Russia’s grain exports and 25% to 30% of its Black Sea oil exports could be disrupted. Russia grows more than a fifth of internationally traded wheat, magnifying the potential consequences for global food prices.

Yevgeniya Gaber, a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council think tank, said Russia’s move earlier this month to suspend shipping through the Kerch Strait, which connects the Sea of Azov and the Black Sea, has effectively shut down a vital maritime corridor.

“Maritime transport through the Sea of Azov had become an increasingly important alternative to the land corridor connecting Russia with occupied Crimea,” Gaber told CNBC by email.

“The economic implications are equally important,” Gaber said, adding that the Sea of Azov has been used not only to transport sanctioned crude oil and petroleum products but also grain, coal and steel.

Gaber said Ukraine’s efforts to exploit Russia’s maritime and economic weaknesses constitute “one of the most significant blows to military and commercial fleets” since World War II. Indeed, Ukraine says it has degraded roughly one-third of Russia’s Black Sea fleet since 2022.

Why the Panama Canal could be the next flashpoint

In the Strait of Hormuz, commercial operators are contending with attacks and rapidly shifting signals over whether passage is safe. Governments can declare a waterway open, but shipowners make their own decisions based on the likelihood of a vessel being hit and crew members being injured or killed.

“We often treat the Strait of Hormuz, the Black Sea, or Bab el-Mandeb as isolated events. They are not,” said Daejin Lee, global head of research at Fertistream Freight.

“These waterways are increasingly becoming battlegrounds within the broader transition toward a new world order,” he told CNBC via email.

And the next threats are already emerging.

“If you’re talking about the next flashpoint, I wouldn’t look at the Strait of Hormuz,” said Lars Jensen, chief executive officer of Vespucci Maritime. “I would look at the Panama Canal.”

The strategic passage, which has offered a shortcut for ships transiting between the Pacific and the North Atlantic for more than a century, is already caught in a geopolitical dispute involving the U.S., China and Panama over influence. Potential weather-related restrictions toward the end of this year and early next year could compound those tensions by reducing capacity, Jensen added.

Impact on shipping ‘bigger than most realize’

For shipping companies, the challenge is preparing for a world where the next chokepoint can emerge before the last one has reopened.

Kevin O’Marah, co-founder and chief research officer at supply chain intelligence firm Zero100, told CNBC the Strait of Hormuz became the most critical part of the U.S.-Iran war after Iran discovered merely threatening traffic there was enough to stop it.

While none of Zero100′s clients had come under attack in the strait, O’Marah said some had decided to avoid that risk by actively managing inventories and rerouting shipments.

“It has added cost and delay for some of our clients in the energy, food, and electronics industries,” he said.

“As of now, traffic through the Strait looks to be running at about half the normal flow. The recent breakdown in the ceasefire has definitely hurt the situation but no one is surprised. Supply chain leaders, and in particular logistics specialists like Martin Brower and Maersk, are aware and have well established protocols for dealing with the risk.”

Mitigation strategies include rerouting across the Arabian Peninsula via pipeline for oil, overland into Turkey for certain kinds of commodities and avoiding the area completely as much as possible, O’Marah said.

The war in the Middle East “does not look like an escalating conflict to most supply chain leaders, but it does look likely to be a long-term problem in terms of freedom of movement through the Strait of Hormuz,” he added.

“We are planning on a steady state of transportation uncertainty and costs associated with reroutings, inventory buffering, and shipping surcharges.”

Alain Bejjani, a Dubai-based investor, business executive and judge on “Shark Tank Lebanon,” told CNBC shipping lanes would stay at the center of the war “because they are the conflict.”

“The war has migrated from territory to logistics. A strait does not close when missiles fly; it closes when insurers stop writing cover,” he said. “That makes disruption cheap to sustain and hard to price, which is exactly why it persists.”

A spokesperson for insurance broker Gallagher told CNBC war risk insurance — an add-on that covers financial losses caused by war, terrorism, and civil unrest — is still available. But they noted that “a handful but not many” ship owners or charters are opting to travel through the Strait of Hormuz.

“Given the challenging maritime security environment, rates have increased from levels that owners and charterers will be used to. The cost will vary depending on the vessel type, cargo and routing, however marine insurers are continuing to provide cover and helping to ensure marine commerce can continue with adequate coverage in place,” they added.

How companies are responding to shipping risks

Bejjani told CNBC that the structural consequence of maritime warfare “is bigger than most people realize.”

“The Gulf is bracketed by two straits, not one, and the region is now designing around both Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb to the maximum extent possible,” he said.

“That is new. Past crises produced hedges. This one is producing an architecture: overland corridors, bypass pipelines, forward storage near the markets that matter most. It will cost heavily, take a decade, and ripple for decades more. I expect other strait-dependent regions to follow, though few with the same urgency or resources.”

He warned that, although shipping will maintain its edge in terms of volumes, it is likely to “lose its monopoly on trust” in the business world.

“Other modes of transport will be substantially enhanced where certainty matters most, and redundancy becomes a permanent, priced feature of logistics,” he said.

“The strait will reopen. The assumption that it stays open for free will not return.”

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Passengers and crew foil co-pilot’s apparent attempt to crash FlyDubai flight to Israel

One of the pilots on a FlyDubai flight headed for Israel stabbed the second pilot, according to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

On-duty flight crew and passengers managed to foil a pilot’s apparent attempt to crash a FlyDubai flight, after reports emerged of a fight in the cockpit.

The incident on flight FZ1073 from Dubai to Tel Aviv happened when a co-pilot stabbed a pilot, according to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who praised the victim’s quick thinking.

“Despite being stabbed and seriously injured, he fought back, resisted, opened the cockpit door, and enabled passengers and crew to overpower the attacker — preventing a catastrophic mid-air disaster. He saved the lives of 174 people, including Israeli citizens and other nationals,” Netanyahu wrote in a post on X.

FZ1073 was diverted to the Tabuk airport in Saudi Arabia, the airline said, after being successfully secured and diverted by flight crew.

FlyDubai in a statement said that an “altercation” occurred on the flight deck of the plane, but did not mention a stabbing.

However, the airline added that the underlying reasons and motives for the clash is currently unknown, urging all parties to refrain from speculation.

The injured pilot was identified by Netanyahu as Indian national Smit Machchhar. No details have been released on the identity of the attacker, except that he was being interrogated by Saudi authorities.

The Indian embassy in Riyadh said on X that Machchhar is in a hospital in Tabuk, and is reported to be in stable condition.

The Israeli Prime Minister also identified the passenger who broke into the cockpit as Yaniv Hayun, calling him a “hero” and adding he deserved “a global medal of honor.”

Flight data from tracking site FlightRadar24 showed that the plane had experienced extreme altitude fluctuations before broadcasting a “general emergency” squawk code.

FZ1073 had dropped from over 14,000 feet in just 29 seconds, and FlightRadar24 also added that vertical speeds ranging from approximately -30,000 to +10,000 feet per minute were observed from the transponder data.

For context, vertical speeds during normal operations rarely exceed plus or minus 4,000 feet per minute, it added.

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Technologies

South Korean President Lee Reins In Alaska LNG Project Participation Following Trump’s Endorsement

South Korea’s proposed $200 billion U.S. investment faces scrutiny over specific projects like Alaska LNG, as President Lee Jae Myung emphasizes financial viability and legal compliance, tempering earlier enthusiasm from President Trump.

South Korea’s proposed $200 billion investment in the U.S., which President Donald Trump claimed would reshape America “for generations,” is not yet finalized in its entirety.

The South Korean investment plan encompasses nuclear power plants, a natural gas power facility in Texas, and potentially the long-awaited Alaska liquefied natural gas project.

Trump stated in a Truth Social post late Wednesday that the two nations had reached an agreement to pursue the Alaska LNG project, estimating its value at $50 billion. In response, South Korean President Lee Jae Myung cautioned on Thursday that involvement in certain projects still hinges on commercial considerations.

Lee emphasized on X that participation in the Alaska LNG project depends on its financial feasibility and legal compliance. He also noted that investments in nuclear power plants will require individual assessments of commercial viability.

The U.S.-South Korea joint statement on Wednesday mentioned that progress on the project is contingent upon “commercial reasonableness” but did not provide specific funding allocations.

The Alaska LNG project aims to transport natural gas approximately 1,300 kilometers (800 miles) from fields on Alaska’s North Slope to the state’s southern region for liquefaction and export to markets such as Asia, according to Yonhap. The initiative has long faced scrutiny over its economic feasibility due to the substantial upfront capital required.

Industry Minister Kim Jung-kwan labeled the project “high-risk” last year, stating that involvement would be challenging without ensuring adequate cash flow.

Overall, the investment package includes $22.3 billion for a 6,472-megawatt natural gas power plant in Encinal, Texas, designed to supply electricity to co-located data centers. The project will be spearheaded by developer Related Cos. and U.S. energy company NextEra Energy.

Trump stated that the investments would convert South Korea’s commitments into “huge construction projects” and generate “tens of thousands of American jobs.”

“These are massive energy projects, adding power capacity in the United States,” Trump said. “This is new construction, new manufacturing, and great jobs for American workers.”

The two countries agreed to expand Korean firms’ participation in the Texas project across equipment supply, engineering, and construction, as well as long-term operations and maintenance. The U.S. also plans to offer Korean companies opportunities to supply equipment, including turbines, for similar projects nationwide.

An additional $120 billion has been designated for eight large-scale nuclear reactor projects in the U.S. Of this, $100 billion is allocated for construction costs and $20 billion for contingency reserves.

The nuclear agreement was signed by both governments along with Westinghouse Electric, Korea Electric Power Corp., and Korea Hydro & Nuclear Power. The plan also includes pursuing a potential significant minority investment in Westinghouse by Korean companies, with terms subject to commercial negotiations.

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Technologies

SEC Advances Crypto Custody Rules as Major Legislation Languishes in Congress

The SEC has proposed new crypto custody rules for investment advisers and funds while comprehensive legislation remains stalled in Congress, creating a regulatory pathway for digital asset holdings.

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission has unveiled proposed regulations designed to simplify the process for investment advisers and regulated funds to maintain cryptocurrency holdings for clients, as American regulators move forward with crafting digital asset rules following the stalling of comprehensive legislation on Capitol Hill.

The proposal, revealed Thursday, would create a specialized framework governing how registered investment advisers, investment companies, and business development companies maintain custody of crypto assets.

The modifications aim to update decades-old custody requirements and eliminate regulatory obstacles that the SEC says have restricted advisers’ capacity to provide crypto-related investment options.

Under the proposed regulations, crypto assets could be held in self-custody under “certain circumstances,” while state trust companies could also function as custodians for crypto assets belonging to clients and regulated funds.

The changes could also grant regulated funds expanded authority to offer investors crypto-related investment strategies, according to the SEC.

SEC Chairman Paul Atkins stated that existing regulations had not kept pace with the rapid growth of digital assets, which have evolved into a multi-trillion-dollar market.

“Today’s proposal would provide a clear regulatory framework for the custody of crypto assets, giving investment advisers and funds a compliant pathway where none existed before,” Atkins said.

The proposal arrives as U.S. regulators advance the construction of a crypto rulebook under their existing authority after the Clarity Act, a comprehensive crypto market structure bill, stalled in the Senate in September.

This represents another step in the SEC’s broader initiative to reshape the U.S. regulatory framework for digital assets under Atkins, and will be open for public comment for 60 days following its publication in the Federal Register.

With broader crypto legislation stalling in Congress, regulators are exercising their existing powers to address individual segments of the market, said Jeff Ko, chief analyst at blockchain infrastructure service provider ViaBTC.

“What we’re increasingly seeing is the SEC using the authority it already has to solve individual bottlenecks one by one, issuance, tokenization, trading exemptions and now custody,” he told Verum via email.

The changes could also intensify competition among crypto custodians, potentially reducing the cost and complexity of investing in digital assets, he said, adding that institutional custody has historically been concentrated among a relatively small number of providers.

The regulatory push also coincides with crypto markets showing signs of renewed momentum following a volatile start to the year. Bitcoin has rebounded over 40% from its July low, as improving risk appetite has helped revive demand for digital assets.

The recovery follows a prolonged downturn from late 2025 into the first half of 2026.

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