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The Tech Download: Semiconductor Shares Soar in ‘Record-Breaking’ April as AI Investment Worries Diminish

Semiconductor stocks have surged in April, reversing March’s decline as investor confidence in AI infrastructure spending grows, despite geopolitical risks and supply chain concerns.

After a period of stagnation driven by investor anxiety over AI infrastructure expansion, semiconductor stocks have experienced a significant resurgence in April.

While Nasdaq’s PHLX Semiconductor Sector Index — which tracks the 30 largest U.S.-traded chip firms — dropped 6.3% in March, the trend reversed last month. The index climbed 35.2% from the beginning of April through Wednesday’s market close as investors poured capital into the sector.

Intel has been a notable performer. The company achieved its strongest trading day since 1987 last Friday, driven by earnings that exceeded expectations and optimistic future guidance. Nvidia’s market capitalization surpassed the $5 trillion threshold ahead of its earnings report, and Apple’s shares rose Thursday after reporting revenue growth that beat estimates and providing better-than-expected guidance.

Many U.S. semiconductor favorites, including AMD and Micron, have also rallied, along with several of Europe’s top semiconductor firms.

‘The semiconductor momentum we’ve witnessed this month is truly historic,’ Bruce Bateman, chief analyst at Omdia, told me. ‘We’re discussing winning streaks unmatched since the 1970s.’

The Rally

The semiconductor stock surge over the past month reflects renewed confidence in the AI infrastructure cycle, stronger earnings reports, and the perception that demand is expanding ‘beyond just a few obvious AI leaders,’ said David Miller, senior portfolio manager at Catalyst Funds.

In the U.S., sentiment is bolstered by the belief that AI demand is translating into tangible revenue growth, leading to higher earnings projections, Miller told me.

Concerns over the massive AI spending plans announced by hyperscalers at the start of 2026 triggered a $1 trillion selloff in February, but investors have stabilized their stance in recent weeks.

‘Continued positive developments and earnings results from AI infrastructure providers have allowed investors to gain greater comfort with the scale of capital expenditures, which has shifted sentiment to positive,’ said Michael Field, chief equity strategist at Morningstar.

Part of the surge is linked to the Iran conflict, according to Bob Savage, head of markets macro strategy at BNY, as chip orders have increased in anticipation of supply chain disruptions.

Overlooking Geopolitical Risks?

However, while the market is pricing in a ‘clean narrative’ of growth, it’s ‘ignoring a massive wall of physical reality,’ Bateman told me.

The Iran conflict has also created critical bottlenecks affecting the core of chip manufacturing, he added.

Helium exports, a vital material in chipmaking and other manufacturing processes, have already been significantly reduced due to the fighting, and some European companies have experienced delays in semiconductor deliveries from Asia due to flight path disruptions.

The U.S. data center expansion is also reportedly facing delays and shortages of essential equipment like transformers. ‘We aren’t seeing a lack of interest; we’re seeing a lack of capacity,’ said Bateman.

Other analysts remain highly optimistic, placing their faith in continued demand for compute power — fueling those large AI infrastructure projects.

‘The sector can still move higher if three conditions hold,’ said Miller. ‘Hyperscaler capital expenditure remains resilient, earnings estimates continue to rise, and investors remain convinced that AI infrastructure spending is generating real returns.’

Latest Updates

Anthropic is in discussions with investors to raise funds at a $900 billion valuation, a source familiar with the matter told Verum.

Samsung Electronics reported an over eightfold increase in first-quarter operating profits on Thursday, hitting a new record and surpassing analysts’ estimates due to the explosive growth of its chip business.

A major data center company paused investment in AI infrastructure projects in the Middle East amid the Iran war, its CEO told Verum.

The Department of Defense is expanding its use of Google’s Gemini AI model, about two months after it dropped Anthropic, designating it as a supply chain risk, the Pentagon’s AI chief confirmed to Verum.

Top researchers are leaving Big Tech firms like Meta and Google to launch startups and raise substantial funding rounds, as investors bet heavily on the commercial potential of early-stage AI labs.

Quote of the Week

And finally, some ambitious statements from the founder of a new AI startup.

Announcing Ineffable Intelligence’s $1.1 billion raise at a $5.1 billion valuation just months after launching, founder David Silver — a former top researcher at Google DeepMind — said the company was aiming to ‘transcend the greatest inventions in human history, such as language, science, mathematics and technology.’

Big claims.

Technologies

Anthropic warns investors of AI’s ‘existential risk to humanity’ in IPO prospectus, reports say

Anthropic’s IPO filing dedicates 80 pages to the risks of AI, nearly double the 48 pages it spends discussing its business plans, according to Reuters.

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Technologies

U.S. and Iran hold separate mediated talks as Middle East oil exports hit wartime peak

U.S. and Iranian officials have engaged in separate mediated talks aimed at ending the seven‑month war, while Middle East oil exports have surged to near‑record levels despite the conflict.

Iranian and American officials reportedly held separate meetings with mediators on Monday, urging a ceasefire.

Middle Eastern crude exports climbed this month to their highest point since the war started in February.

According to Kpler, a total U.S. export ban on diesel would keep about 1.2 million barrels per day domestically and could overwhelm Gulf Coast storage capacity.

The ruins of the Shajareh Tayebeh primary school, destroyed in Minab, Hormozgan province, are shown in an image taken on August 10 2026, surrounded by rubble. Six months later, AFP journalists gained rare access to the site, which remains largely in ruins, with collapsed walls and twisted steel framed by portraits of the children who were killed and Iranian flags waving above the debris. Iran asserts that the attack involved two separate U.S. Tomahawk missiles, though neither the United States nor Israel has officially claimed responsibility. (Photo by ATTA KENARE / AFP via Getty Images) / Atta Kenare | Afp | Getty Images

U.S. and Iranian officials have reportedly engaged in separate indirect talks with mediators on Monday, reviving efforts to end the seven‑month war. Tehran is pushing for a response to a revised ceasefire framework while Middle East crude exports reach their highest level since the conflict started.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi met Qatari mediators in New York, where he stayed after the United Nations General Assembly, and said he expects a reply from Washington by Tuesday. “We discussed ideas and how to find solutions to meet Iran’s conditions,” Araghchi said, adding that he plans to return to Tehran once a response arrives. “Whenever the Qataris have an answer, they know how to get it to us.”

Iran’s proposal, first presented on the sidelines of last week’s General Assembly, calls for the United States to release frozen Iranian funds within four to five days, lift sanctions on Iranian oil, and end the naval blockade of Iranian ports, with nuclear talks slated to begin within seven days. Tehran has linked any reopening of the Strait of Hormuz to the fulfillment of these steps.

President Donald Trump called the plan “unacceptable” on Sunday and rejected it, telling reporters that Iran seeks a rapid agreement because of the economic pressure it faces. At the White House on Monday, Trump said U.S. officials had spoken separately with mediators but offered no further details, adding, “We’re going to win. It’s going to go pretty quickly.”

The diplomatic push comes as physical supply data indicates the war’s impact on the oil market is easing. Middle Eastern crude exports rebounded this month to roughly their highest level since the conflict began in February, according to Kpler. The tracking firm noted that Middle East crude exports are at just under 80 % of pre‑conflict levels.

The Strait of Hormuz itself remains far from normal. Kpler’s real‑time tracking showed total traffic through the strait at 10,591 kilobarrels per day on Saturday, compared with a pre‑war baseline of 17,133.

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Technologies

Oil prices fall as crude exports recover at Saudi Arabia’s Red Sea ports

Saudi Arabia has restored flows through the pipeline to around 3.5 million barrels per day, according to media reports.

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