Technologies
The Tech Download: Semiconductor Shares Soar in ‘Record-Breaking’ April as AI Investment Worries Diminish
Semiconductor stocks have surged in April, reversing March’s decline as investor confidence in AI infrastructure spending grows, despite geopolitical risks and supply chain concerns.
After a period of stagnation driven by investor anxiety over AI infrastructure expansion, semiconductor stocks have experienced a significant resurgence in April.
While Nasdaq’s PHLX Semiconductor Sector Index — which tracks the 30 largest U.S.-traded chip firms — dropped 6.3% in March, the trend reversed last month. The index climbed 35.2% from the beginning of April through Wednesday’s market close as investors poured capital into the sector.
Intel has been a notable performer. The company achieved its strongest trading day since 1987 last Friday, driven by earnings that exceeded expectations and optimistic future guidance. Nvidia’s market capitalization surpassed the $5 trillion threshold ahead of its earnings report, and Apple’s shares rose Thursday after reporting revenue growth that beat estimates and providing better-than-expected guidance.
Many U.S. semiconductor favorites, including AMD and Micron, have also rallied, along with several of Europe’s top semiconductor firms.
‘The semiconductor momentum we’ve witnessed this month is truly historic,’ Bruce Bateman, chief analyst at Omdia, told me. ‘We’re discussing winning streaks unmatched since the 1970s.’
The Rally
The semiconductor stock surge over the past month reflects renewed confidence in the AI infrastructure cycle, stronger earnings reports, and the perception that demand is expanding ‘beyond just a few obvious AI leaders,’ said David Miller, senior portfolio manager at Catalyst Funds.
In the U.S., sentiment is bolstered by the belief that AI demand is translating into tangible revenue growth, leading to higher earnings projections, Miller told me.
Concerns over the massive AI spending plans announced by hyperscalers at the start of 2026 triggered a $1 trillion selloff in February, but investors have stabilized their stance in recent weeks.
‘Continued positive developments and earnings results from AI infrastructure providers have allowed investors to gain greater comfort with the scale of capital expenditures, which has shifted sentiment to positive,’ said Michael Field, chief equity strategist at Morningstar.
Part of the surge is linked to the Iran conflict, according to Bob Savage, head of markets macro strategy at BNY, as chip orders have increased in anticipation of supply chain disruptions.
Overlooking Geopolitical Risks?
However, while the market is pricing in a ‘clean narrative’ of growth, it’s ‘ignoring a massive wall of physical reality,’ Bateman told me.
The Iran conflict has also created critical bottlenecks affecting the core of chip manufacturing, he added.
Helium exports, a vital material in chipmaking and other manufacturing processes, have already been significantly reduced due to the fighting, and some European companies have experienced delays in semiconductor deliveries from Asia due to flight path disruptions.
The U.S. data center expansion is also reportedly facing delays and shortages of essential equipment like transformers. ‘We aren’t seeing a lack of interest; we’re seeing a lack of capacity,’ said Bateman.
Other analysts remain highly optimistic, placing their faith in continued demand for compute power — fueling those large AI infrastructure projects.
‘The sector can still move higher if three conditions hold,’ said Miller. ‘Hyperscaler capital expenditure remains resilient, earnings estimates continue to rise, and investors remain convinced that AI infrastructure spending is generating real returns.’
Latest Updates
Anthropic is in discussions with investors to raise funds at a $900 billion valuation, a source familiar with the matter told Verum.
Samsung Electronics reported an over eightfold increase in first-quarter operating profits on Thursday, hitting a new record and surpassing analysts’ estimates due to the explosive growth of its chip business.
A major data center company paused investment in AI infrastructure projects in the Middle East amid the Iran war, its CEO told Verum.
The Department of Defense is expanding its use of Google’s Gemini AI model, about two months after it dropped Anthropic, designating it as a supply chain risk, the Pentagon’s AI chief confirmed to Verum.
Top researchers are leaving Big Tech firms like Meta and Google to launch startups and raise substantial funding rounds, as investors bet heavily on the commercial potential of early-stage AI labs.
Quote of the Week
And finally, some ambitious statements from the founder of a new AI startup.
Announcing Ineffable Intelligence’s $1.1 billion raise at a $5.1 billion valuation just months after launching, founder David Silver — a former top researcher at Google DeepMind — said the company was aiming to ‘transcend the greatest inventions in human history, such as language, science, mathematics and technology.’
Big claims.
Technologies
Trump Maintains US‑Iran Negotiations Continue Amid Tehran’s Denials of Duplicity
President Trump insists that US‑Iran talks are ongoing despite Tehran’s denial of any negotiation plans, while warning that only a deal or total surrender will allow passage through the Strait of Hormuz. Conflicting statements from both sides have heightened uncertainty as the conflict enters its sixth month.
On Monday, President Donald Trump asserted that negotiations between the United States and Iran are still taking place, even after Tehran stated it has no intention of engaging in direct talks with Washington.
In a fiery Truth Social post, Trump labeled Iran’s leaders “unbelievably duplicitous,” claiming they are lying about ongoing peace talks “whether Iran wants to admit it or not.” He repeated his assertion that the United States completely controls the Strait of Hormuz, despite maritime traffic through the crucial route lingering at only a small fraction of pre‑conflict levels.
He wrote, “Nothing reaches Iran unless we allow it, and nothing will pass unless a deal—or total surrender—is achieved.”
Earlier that day, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmail Baghaei told reporters there is no imminent plan for U.S.–Iran negotiations, contradicting Trump’s earlier comment that talks would resume Monday afternoon. Baghaei added that Iran’s only current discussions are with Oman concerning the Strait of Hormuz.
The conflicting statements have heightened uncertainty over the peace‑talk process and the broader conflict, now in its sixth month.
Trump’s assertion about new negotiations came a day after he said on Truth Social that he had agreed to cancel a massive strike against Iran “subject to being able to rapidly make a DEAL.” He said in the same post that Iran and other Middle Eastern countries had asked him to hold off on that attack because “the perimeters of a deal has been agreed to.”
Trump has claimed dozens of times throughout the more‑than‑five‑month‑long war that a deal is at hand. No permanent deal has been signed, and a temporary ceasefire reached in June has fallen apart.
Trump has also repeatedly threatened to launch devastating strikes against Iran before backing off. After the latest example, oil prices on Monday fell and stocks surged.
BMI, a research unit of Fitch Solutions, said in a note Monday that a broader diplomatic understanding on reopening the Strait of Hormuz is still achievable this quarter, while raising the probability of its escalation scenario to 35% from 25%, citing mounting military, diplomatic and economic signs of rising U.S.-Iran tensions.
“Diplomatic progress is likely to be punctuated by periodic military flare-ups, while miscalculation by either side could trigger a renewed escalation,” BMI analysts wrote in a note. The firm said the key issue to watch is the future governance of the strait, as the Iran-Oman talks — potentially backed by Gulf states, China and the U.S. — point to efforts to build a post-conflict shipping framework.
Shipping risks persist even as diplomacy appears to be advancing. The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations Centre said it received a report of an incident 20 nautical miles (23 miles) northeast of Khasab, Oman — at the mouth of the strait — with a tanker’s master reporting an explosion in close proximity to the vessel at about 20:37 UTC Sunday (4:37 pm ET). The vessel and crew were safe and authorities are investigating, UKMTO said, advising ships to transit with caution.
The proposal Trump announced over the weekend calls for the U.S. and Iran to return to negotiations and continue ironing out some of the thorny issues that had derailed diplomatic efforts, according to The Associated Press, citing a regional official involved in the mediation efforts.
The official said the proposal also includes a reopening of the Hormuz Strait and halting attacks across the region, including by Iranian-backed militias in Iraq on the Arab Gulf countries and Jordan.
The U.S., for its part, will end its naval blockade on Iran and allow Tehran to export its oil, the official said, adding that no deal has been reached, although the mediation efforts remained underway.
Trump’s weekend reversal has lowered the temperature after days of escalating attacks across the Gulf. Kuwait said Saturday that Iranian forces launched a wave of drones within its airspace, with its military destroying multiple aircraft after Iran targeted critical infrastructure in the country’s north.
A parallel track with Muscat is also advancing. Iranian diplomats said Tehran was close to reaching a new arrangement with Oman to manage shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a deal critical to preventing the war from escalating further, according to the Financial Times.
Iranian officials said negotiations over future management of the Hormuz Strait with Oman, which sits on the opposite shore of the waterway, are in their final stages. The agreed shipping route would be different from those used before, according to Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson, Baghaei, adding that the new route was separate from the issue of the strait’s reopening or continued closure.
Technologies
Oil Prices Slide as Trump Halts Planned Iran Strike
Oil prices dropped after Trump cancelled a planned strike on Iran, with WTI down about 5% and Brent near 5% lower. He said the move followed requests from Tehran and regional allies for a pause while a deal shaping the Strait of Hormuz and Iran’s nuclear program is negotiated.
Oil prices fell on Monday after President Donald Trump announced he had cancelled a planned strike on Iran. WTI futures dropped roughly 5% to $80.34 a barrel, while Brent slipped about 4.7% to $83.77 a barrel.
Trump said early Sunday he called off the strike after Iran and several Middle Eastern nations asked him to hold off, noting that the outlines of a deal had been agreed upon. He added that the prospective accord would entail the immediate, full opening of the Strait of Hormuz and an end to Iran’s nuclear ambitions, according to his Truth Social post.
The president had been considering another round of strikes as diplomatic hopes waned since the conflict began on February 28. He said the U.S. and Iran would meet for talks on Monday, but Iran denied any scheduled negotiations with Washington, citing PressTV. Iran’s foreign‑ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei clarified that Tehran was only discussing shipping routes through the Strait of Hormuz with Oman. In a follow‑up Truth Social message, Trump insisted that, regardless of Iran’s acknowledgment, the United States is indeed discussing a solution to a long‑standing problem created by Iran.
Technologies
Oil Prices Drop as Trump Cancels Planned Attack on Iran
Oil prices fell sharply after President Trump announced the cancellation of a planned strike on Iran, citing a new deal that would open the Hormuz Strait and end Iran’s nuclear threat.
Oil prices fell sharply on Monday after President Donald Trump announced that he had called off a planned strike on Iran.
West Texas Intermediate futures, the U.S. benchmark, slipped roughly 5% to close at $80.34 per barrel, while Brent crude, the international benchmark, declined 4.7% to settle at $83.77 a barrel.
Trump made the announcement early Sunday, saying he had canceled the strike following requests from Tehran and other Middle Eastern countries.
In a Truth Social post, he wrote: “We have just been asked by Iran, and other Middle Eastern Countries, to hold off any attack in that the perimeters of a deal has been agreed to.”
The president indicated that the proposed agreement would include the immediate, complete, and total opening of the Hormuz Strait, as well as an end to Iran’s nuclear threat.
Trump had been weighing additional strikes amid diminishing prospects for a diplomatic resolution to the conflict that began on Feb. 28. He stated that the U.S. and Iran would hold negotiations on Monday.
Tehran denied that talks were planned with Washington, according to state news outlet PressTV.
Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei said Tehran was only holding talks with Oman regarding the routes ships can use through the Strait of Hormuz.
In a subsequent Truth Social post, Trump added that whether “Iran wants to admit it or not, we are, in fact, talking of a solution to a problem that they have caused for decades.”
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