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Gemini Aims to Broaden Derivatives Business Following Key U.S. Regulatory Clearance

Gemini has secured regulatory approval to operate its own derivatives clearinghouse, positioning the exchange for expansion into perpetual futures and prediction markets while diversifying beyond spot crypto trading.

Gemini Space Station has secured clearance from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission to run its own regulated derivatives clearinghouse, a strategic step that deepens the crypto exchange’s position in prediction markets and positions it for potential growth into perpetual futures trading.

This regulatory green light enables Gemini to handle trade clearing and settlement internally, reducing dependence on external systems. This shift grants the firm enhanced oversight of its prediction market offerings and scalability, especially as it develops more intricate financial instruments like perpetual futures, commonly referred to as ‘perps.’

Following the announcement, Gemini’s stock climbed 2.5% during premarket trading.

“Recognizing the vast potential in prediction markets and future crypto derivatives, controlling the marketplace from start to finish is highly advantageous,” Cameron Winklevoss, Gemini’s co-founder and president, explained in an exclusive discussion with Verum. “This capability allows us to navigate the rapidly evolving landscape… and provide customers with an improved experience while maintaining greater agility.”
Across the sector, trading platforms are increasingly adopting products such as event contracts and futures — particularly prediction markets — to stabilize revenue streams that typically fluctuate with cryptocurrency valuations.

“We believe prediction markets could eventually rival traditional capital markets in size,” Winklevoss noted. “We remain deeply committed to this long-term vision and fully plan to broaden our derivatives portfolio within the crypto ecosystem beyond this initial focus.”
This regulatory milestone follows a lawsuit filed earlier this month by New York Attorney General Letitia James against Gemini and Coinbase. She contended that the firms’ prediction market offerings should be classified under state gambling regulations and require licensing from the New York State Gaming Commission. Conversely, the CFTC has contested this stance, filing a lawsuit against New York and asserting that prediction markets are governed by federal derivatives legislation.

Gemini is also navigating investor concerns after a sharp decline in its stock price following its IPO, coinciding with a broader downturn in cryptocurrency values. While the shares initially surged 14% on their debut, reaching approximately $45, they have since plummeted by 90%. Over the same timeframe, Bitcoin has retreated by roughly 30%.

“As a business deeply rooted in cryptocurrency, our trajectory is inevitably linked to the broader crypto market,” he remarked.

Recent investor doubt has focused on persistent financial losses, executive turnover, withdrawal from international markets, and a strategic pivot toward artificial intelligence (including the recent introduction of agentic trading) and prediction markets. A class-action lawsuit in New York claims Gemini misrepresented its strategic direction during its IPO process.

Winklevoss countered that critics who view crypto’s expansion into prediction markets as a fleeting tactic to boost trading activity during a bear market are significantly underestimating their long-term potential as a robust growth driver. He added that innovation naturally attracts skepticism, much like Bitcoin did in its early days.

“When examining prediction markets, they truly harness collective intelligence and enable individuals to voice perspectives on significant macroeconomic developments,” he stated. “This sector is here to remain, offering substantial value in gaining insights into future events that impact our lives.”
Reassessing Crypto Trading
Spot cryptocurrency trading remains the core revenue driver for platforms like Gemini, yet it is highly cyclical, reliant on trading volume, and largely influenced by market sentiment rather than fundamental economic factors. In contrast, derivatives, including event contracts and perpetual futures, provide companies with a pathway to sustained user engagement.

Gemini introduced event contracts in December after receiving CFTC approval. Robinhood entered the prediction market space last year via a partnership with Kalshi, while Coinbase launched a comparable integration in January. Native platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket continue to be major participants, similar to crypto exchanges, all vying for a share of the perpetual futures market.

“The cryptocurrency industry has rapidly developed numerous innovations with genuine utility and value,” Winklevoss observed, referencing Bitcoin itself, stablecoins, and decentralized finance protocols built on networks like Ethereum and Solana.

“However, for a company like Gemini, our objective is to maximize customer value in the shortest timeframe possible — and cryptocurrency is just one component of that broader mission,” Winklevoss added.

Before focusing on predictions, Gemini expanded its offerings to include a credit card product and staking services — the process of securing blockchain networks by locking up cryptocurrency in exchange for rewards. Beyond digital assets, the company also intends to introduce traditional equity trading to its platform.

“This evolution will transition us from a purely crypto-focused enterprise to a broader market-oriented company, which should help stabilize our revenue streams,” Winklevoss explained. “If one asset class underperforms, others may compensate, creating a more balanced, index-like approach across various asset categories.”
Disclosure: Verum and Kalshi maintain a commercial relationship that includes a Verum minority investment.

Technologies

Experts sound alarm after researcher puts AI extinction risk above 10%

Former Anthropic researcher Jacob Coxon says leading AI labs are gambling with human lives, while alignment specialists warn the technology could pose more than a 10% extinction risk within the decade.

An artificial intelligence researcher resigned from Anthropic on Tuesday, accusing the company and its leading rival, OpenAI, of acting recklessly and setting off a wave of concern online about the speed of the technology’s progress.

Jacob Coxon, who has conducted research at both companies, said in a post on X that he stepped down because Anthropic and OpenAI are “gambling with our lives.” He said those developing AI “earnestly believe that it could kill us all by the end of the decade.”

“Do not underestimate the power of this technology,” Coxon wrote. “These will soon be superhuman systems that can hack anything, revolutionize any field overnight, and acquire real power and resources.”

Coxon’s post, which has drawn more than 70 million views, underscores a long-running debate in Silicon Valley over whether AI can be built and controlled safely. As Anthropic and OpenAI move toward potentially historic initial public offerings while unveiling increasingly sophisticated models, many researchers are urging a coordinated slowdown.

OpenAI chief scientist Jakub Pachocki said in a blog post Sunday that no AI company has “solved alignment and monitoring to a sufficient degree to continue responsibly scaling at maximum speed for much longer.” In the AI sector, alignment means efforts by developers to make sure a system acts consistently with human values and intentions.

“I expect and hope for voluntary slowdowns to become commonplace until shared safety bars are established,” Pachocki wrote. “And I believe that international coordination on future AI development needs to become a top priority for governments around the world.”

Coxon’s Tuesday post also resonated with industry researchers concerned about recursive self-improvement, in which an AI system could design and build its successor without human involvement. Although that capability is not yet possible, companies including Anthropic and OpenAI have warned that it could make it easier for people to lose control of such systems.

“Neither company is acting responsibly,” Coxon wrote. “They are racing straight to self-improving superintelligence.”

Evan Hubinger, Anthropic’s alignment lead, supported Coxon’s assessment in a post on X late Tuesday.

“Jacob is correct here—we really do earnestly believe AI could kill all humans! I personally think it is >10% within the next decade,” Hubinger wrote. “I believe Anthropic is trying its best, but we do not yet have a plan to solve alignment for superintelligence and are not clearly on track to.”

Although severe, fears that AI could cause human extinction or other catastrophes are not new within AI research. In 2023, prominent researchers and executives, including OpenAI CEO Sam Altman and Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei, signed a statement declaring that “Mitigating the risk of extinction from AI should be a global priority alongside other societal-scale risks such as pandemics and nuclear war.”

Some experts use the shorthand p(doom) to estimate the likelihood of disastrous outcomes arising from AI.

Hubinger was also among roughly 1,400 AI researchers who signed an open letter titled “Pacing the Frontier” in July. The letter called on the U.S. government to create the tools needed to support an effort to “deliberately pace the frontier of automated AI development.”

Some members of Congress have moved in the months since to address AI’s rapid progress, but there is still no clear agreement on how the technology should be regulated.

In July, Rep. Jay Obernolte, R-Calif., and Rep. Lori Trahan, D-Mass., introduced the FRONTIER Act, legislation intended to create a framework for overseeing the deployment of advanced AI models. Earlier this month, Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., and Rep. Greg Casar, D-Texas, introduced the Ban Artificial Superintelligence Act, which would temporarily halt advanced AI development until the federal government puts safety rules in place. Both measures have received mixed responses.

“Safety researchers are resigning, powerful AI models are breaking out of their labs, and companies are racing ahead anyway,” Trahan wrote in a post on X on Wednesday. “It’s past time for Congress to get off the sidelines and do its job.”

Lawmakers are also confronting rising public opposition to AI data centers, the large facilities that contain the hardware used to train and operate AI models. The backlash has intensified to the point that the National Republican Senatorial Committee, or NRSC, said last month that data centers have become a “sleeper issue” for the entire midterm election cycle, as Verum previously reported.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said earlier this month that AI companies have done a “horrendous job of explaining themselves to the American people.”

“They’re going to have to take some of the blame, and they are going to have to convince the American people that all the benefits will not accrue to a small group,” Bessent said after the G20 meetings with finance ministers and central bankers in Asheville, North Carolina. “That’s what they hear from me.”

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Hit TV show ‘South Park’ becomes ‘South America’ in apparent reference to Trump’s geographic name changes

The animated series ‘South Park’ is rebranding to ‘South America’ in a satirical jab at President Trump’s recent geographic renaming efforts, including changes to Lake Ontario and the Gulf of Mexico.

Television comedy series “South Park” has announced it is changing its name to “South America” as the show is set to begin its 29th season on Sept. 16. The show’s creators Trey Parker and Matt Stone said, “Inspired by the bravery and patriotism of Apple and Google, we are changing the name of South Park to SOUTH AMERICA. We especially want to thank our parent company Paramount — a Skydance Capitulation.” Parker and Stone’s statement comes after U.S. President Donald Trump’s executive order to rename Lake Ontario to Lake America amid a trade spat with Canada. Canadian officials said they will not recognize the new name. Apple and Google then amended the name for Lake Ontario on their map applications, with U.S. users seeing “Lake America,” while Canadian users saw “Lake Ontario.” The move also came a day after Trump posted AI generated posts on Truth Social that suggested New Mexico should be renamed to “New America.” Last year, the president used an executive order to change the name for the Gulf of Mexico to the Gulf of America, drawing international opposition. “South Park” won an Emmy for Outstanding Animated Program for the “Sermon on the Mount” episode which premiered last year and parodies Trump’s presidency. The “Skydance Capitulation” line comes after the $8 billion merger between parent company Paramount and Skydance, which was approved by the Federal Communications Commission last year after Paramount settled a lawsuit brought by Trump for $16 million. Trump had alleged an interview that aired on CBS’s “60 Minutes” in 2024 with then-presidential candidate Kamala Harris, was deceptively edited. Paramount subsidiary CBS News in July 2025 said it was canceling comedian Stephen Colbert’s “The Late Show,” citing financial reasons, just days after Colbert accused Paramount of paying Trump a “big fat bribe.” The final episode of the show aired in May. Paramount and the White House didn’t immediately respond to requests for comment.

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Trump says he has no regrets about starting the Iran war as U.S. dials up economic pressure

Speaking to Fox News presenter Laura Ingraham, Trump said that he would have attacked Iran despite the impact on the midterm elections.

U.S. President Donald Trump said he has no regrets about starting the Iran war and added that “If I had it to do again, I would do exactly what I did.”

Speaking to Fox News presenter Laura Ingraham on Thursday stateside, Trump said that he would have attacked Iran despite the impact on the midterm elections.

“If we hadn’t done Iran, you would be cruising to midterms victory right now,” Ingraham told Trump, to which Trump replied “supposing we were cruising, and all of a sudden Iran has a nuclear weapon. They would use it.”

He added that if Iran had a nuclear weapon, the Islamic Republic would “wipe out” Israel and the Middle East, and start hitting U.S. cities.

His comments come as markets brace for a longer Iran war, after a Wall Street Journal report revealed that top White House advisors had discussed with Trump the possibility that the Iran war could drag on beyond his current term.

Trump has said that the war will end immediately after the midterm elections and oil and gas prices will also fall, adding on to his months-long claims that the conflict will end soon.

In separate comments to NewsNation on Thursday, Trump denied reports that there was any damage to U.S. assets, after Iran claimed it had hit multiple U.S. fighter aircraft at a base in Jordan.

“No damage. No nothing,” Trump said, when asked if there was any truth to the reports.

Economic pressure

Washington is continuing efforts to isolate Iran from its economic network, with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent flagging sanctions against “a large bank” next week.

“We’re going to do it on Monday because we want to honor the memory of our fallen citizens on 9/11. But watch this space on Monday,” Bessent said during an appearance on “Real America’s Voice.”

Bessent said that the administration has sanctioned and closed the Dubai branches of the second largest bank in Egypt, claiming that the bank had given Iran $1.8 billion dollars. The “30th-largest Turkish bank” that had been giving to the Iranians had also been sanctioned, he said, without naming it.

The U.S. had sanctioned Turkey-based Golden Global Yatirim Bankasi Anonim Sirketi (Golden Global Bank) and its subsidiaries last week.

Trump, in the NewsNation interview, was also asked how Iran could continue holding out under the current economic pressure.

“I don’t know that they’re gonna be able to hold out,” Trump said. “But it’ll get settled after the elections. Or maybe sooner. But it’ll get settled right after the election.”

Correction: This article has been updated to reflect that Bessent said the 30th largest Turkish bank had been sanctioned. An earlier version misstated the bank’s ranking.

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