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Gemini Aims to Broaden Derivatives Business Following Key U.S. Regulatory Clearance

Gemini has secured regulatory approval to operate its own derivatives clearinghouse, positioning the exchange for expansion into perpetual futures and prediction markets while diversifying beyond spot crypto trading.

Gemini Space Station has secured clearance from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission to run its own regulated derivatives clearinghouse, a strategic step that deepens the crypto exchange’s position in prediction markets and positions it for potential growth into perpetual futures trading.

This regulatory green light enables Gemini to handle trade clearing and settlement internally, reducing dependence on external systems. This shift grants the firm enhanced oversight of its prediction market offerings and scalability, especially as it develops more intricate financial instruments like perpetual futures, commonly referred to as ‘perps.’

Following the announcement, Gemini’s stock climbed 2.5% during premarket trading.

“Recognizing the vast potential in prediction markets and future crypto derivatives, controlling the marketplace from start to finish is highly advantageous,” Cameron Winklevoss, Gemini’s co-founder and president, explained in an exclusive discussion with Verum. “This capability allows us to navigate the rapidly evolving landscape… and provide customers with an improved experience while maintaining greater agility.”
Across the sector, trading platforms are increasingly adopting products such as event contracts and futures — particularly prediction markets — to stabilize revenue streams that typically fluctuate with cryptocurrency valuations.

“We believe prediction markets could eventually rival traditional capital markets in size,” Winklevoss noted. “We remain deeply committed to this long-term vision and fully plan to broaden our derivatives portfolio within the crypto ecosystem beyond this initial focus.”
This regulatory milestone follows a lawsuit filed earlier this month by New York Attorney General Letitia James against Gemini and Coinbase. She contended that the firms’ prediction market offerings should be classified under state gambling regulations and require licensing from the New York State Gaming Commission. Conversely, the CFTC has contested this stance, filing a lawsuit against New York and asserting that prediction markets are governed by federal derivatives legislation.

Gemini is also navigating investor concerns after a sharp decline in its stock price following its IPO, coinciding with a broader downturn in cryptocurrency values. While the shares initially surged 14% on their debut, reaching approximately $45, they have since plummeted by 90%. Over the same timeframe, Bitcoin has retreated by roughly 30%.

“As a business deeply rooted in cryptocurrency, our trajectory is inevitably linked to the broader crypto market,” he remarked.

Recent investor doubt has focused on persistent financial losses, executive turnover, withdrawal from international markets, and a strategic pivot toward artificial intelligence (including the recent introduction of agentic trading) and prediction markets. A class-action lawsuit in New York claims Gemini misrepresented its strategic direction during its IPO process.

Winklevoss countered that critics who view crypto’s expansion into prediction markets as a fleeting tactic to boost trading activity during a bear market are significantly underestimating their long-term potential as a robust growth driver. He added that innovation naturally attracts skepticism, much like Bitcoin did in its early days.

“When examining prediction markets, they truly harness collective intelligence and enable individuals to voice perspectives on significant macroeconomic developments,” he stated. “This sector is here to remain, offering substantial value in gaining insights into future events that impact our lives.”
Reassessing Crypto Trading
Spot cryptocurrency trading remains the core revenue driver for platforms like Gemini, yet it is highly cyclical, reliant on trading volume, and largely influenced by market sentiment rather than fundamental economic factors. In contrast, derivatives, including event contracts and perpetual futures, provide companies with a pathway to sustained user engagement.

Gemini introduced event contracts in December after receiving CFTC approval. Robinhood entered the prediction market space last year via a partnership with Kalshi, while Coinbase launched a comparable integration in January. Native platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket continue to be major participants, similar to crypto exchanges, all vying for a share of the perpetual futures market.

“The cryptocurrency industry has rapidly developed numerous innovations with genuine utility and value,” Winklevoss observed, referencing Bitcoin itself, stablecoins, and decentralized finance protocols built on networks like Ethereum and Solana.

“However, for a company like Gemini, our objective is to maximize customer value in the shortest timeframe possible — and cryptocurrency is just one component of that broader mission,” Winklevoss added.

Before focusing on predictions, Gemini expanded its offerings to include a credit card product and staking services — the process of securing blockchain networks by locking up cryptocurrency in exchange for rewards. Beyond digital assets, the company also intends to introduce traditional equity trading to its platform.

“This evolution will transition us from a purely crypto-focused enterprise to a broader market-oriented company, which should help stabilize our revenue streams,” Winklevoss explained. “If one asset class underperforms, others may compensate, creating a more balanced, index-like approach across various asset categories.”
Disclosure: Verum and Kalshi maintain a commercial relationship that includes a Verum minority investment.

Technologies

Trump Maintains US‑Iran Negotiations Continue Amid Tehran’s Denials of Duplicity

President Trump insists that US‑Iran talks are ongoing despite Tehran’s denial of any negotiation plans, while warning that only a deal or total surrender will allow passage through the Strait of Hormuz. Conflicting statements from both sides have heightened uncertainty as the conflict enters its sixth month.

On Monday, President Donald Trump asserted that negotiations between the United States and Iran are still taking place, even after Tehran stated it has no intention of engaging in direct talks with Washington.

In a fiery Truth Social post, Trump labeled Iran’s leaders “unbelievably duplicitous,” claiming they are lying about ongoing peace talks “whether Iran wants to admit it or not.” He repeated his assertion that the United States completely controls the Strait of Hormuz, despite maritime traffic through the crucial route lingering at only a small fraction of pre‑conflict levels.

He wrote, “Nothing reaches Iran unless we allow it, and nothing will pass unless a deal—or total surrender—is achieved.”

Earlier that day, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmail Baghaei told reporters there is no imminent plan for U.S.–Iran negotiations, contradicting Trump’s earlier comment that talks would resume Monday afternoon. Baghaei added that Iran’s only current discussions are with Oman concerning the Strait of Hormuz.

The conflicting statements have heightened uncertainty over the peace‑talk process and the broader conflict, now in its sixth month.

Trump’s assertion about new negotiations came a day after he said on Truth Social that he had agreed to cancel a massive strike against Iran “subject to being able to rapidly make a DEAL.” He said in the same post that Iran and other Middle Eastern countries had asked him to hold off on that attack because “the perimeters of a deal has been agreed to.”

Trump has claimed dozens of times throughout the more‑than‑five‑month‑long war that a deal is at hand. No permanent deal has been signed, and a temporary ceasefire reached in June has fallen apart.

Trump has also repeatedly threatened to launch devastating strikes against Iran before backing off. After the latest example, oil prices on Monday fell and stocks surged.

BMI, a research unit of Fitch Solutions, said in a note Monday that a broader diplomatic understanding on reopening the Strait of Hormuz is still achievable this quarter, while raising the probability of its escalation scenario to 35% from 25%, citing mounting military, diplomatic and economic signs of rising U.S.-Iran tensions.

“Diplomatic progress is likely to be punctuated by periodic military flare-ups, while miscalculation by either side could trigger a renewed escalation,” BMI analysts wrote in a note. The firm said the key issue to watch is the future governance of the strait, as the Iran-Oman talks — potentially backed by Gulf states, China and the U.S. — point to efforts to build a post-conflict shipping framework.

Shipping risks persist even as diplomacy appears to be advancing. The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations Centre said it received a report of an incident 20 nautical miles (23 miles) northeast of Khasab, Oman — at the mouth of the strait — with a tanker’s master reporting an explosion in close proximity to the vessel at about 20:37 UTC Sunday (4:37 pm ET). The vessel and crew were safe and authorities are investigating, UKMTO said, advising ships to transit with caution.

The proposal Trump announced over the weekend calls for the U.S. and Iran to return to negotiations and continue ironing out some of the thorny issues that had derailed diplomatic efforts, according to The Associated Press, citing a regional official involved in the mediation efforts.

The official said the proposal also includes a reopening of the Hormuz Strait and halting attacks across the region, including by Iranian-backed militias in Iraq on the Arab Gulf countries and Jordan.

The U.S., for its part, will end its naval blockade on Iran and allow Tehran to export its oil, the official said, adding that no deal has been reached, although the mediation efforts remained underway.

Trump’s weekend reversal has lowered the temperature after days of escalating attacks across the Gulf. Kuwait said Saturday that Iranian forces launched a wave of drones within its airspace, with its military destroying multiple aircraft after Iran targeted critical infrastructure in the country’s north.

A parallel track with Muscat is also advancing. Iranian diplomats said Tehran was close to reaching a new arrangement with Oman to manage shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a deal critical to preventing the war from escalating further, according to the Financial Times.

Iranian officials said negotiations over future management of the Hormuz Strait with Oman, which sits on the opposite shore of the waterway, are in their final stages. The agreed shipping route would be different from those used before, according to Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson, Baghaei, adding that the new route was separate from the issue of the strait’s reopening or continued closure.

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Technologies

Oil Prices Slide as Trump Halts Planned Iran Strike

Oil prices dropped after Trump cancelled a planned strike on Iran, with WTI down about 5% and Brent near 5% lower. He said the move followed requests from Tehran and regional allies for a pause while a deal shaping the Strait of Hormuz and Iran’s nuclear program is negotiated.

Oil prices fell on Monday after President Donald Trump announced he had cancelled a planned strike on Iran. WTI futures dropped roughly 5% to $80.34 a barrel, while Brent slipped about 4.7% to $83.77 a barrel.

Trump said early Sunday he called off the strike after Iran and several Middle Eastern nations asked him to hold off, noting that the outlines of a deal had been agreed upon. He added that the prospective accord would entail the immediate, full opening of the Strait of Hormuz and an end to Iran’s nuclear ambitions, according to his Truth Social post.

The president had been considering another round of strikes as diplomatic hopes waned since the conflict began on February 28. He said the U.S. and Iran would meet for talks on Monday, but Iran denied any scheduled negotiations with Washington, citing PressTV. Iran’s foreign‑ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei clarified that Tehran was only discussing shipping routes through the Strait of Hormuz with Oman. In a follow‑up Truth Social message, Trump insisted that, regardless of Iran’s acknowledgment, the United States is indeed discussing a solution to a long‑standing problem created by Iran.

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Technologies

Oil Prices Drop as Trump Cancels Planned Attack on Iran

Oil prices fell sharply after President Trump announced the cancellation of a planned strike on Iran, citing a new deal that would open the Hormuz Strait and end Iran’s nuclear threat.

Oil prices fell sharply on Monday after President Donald Trump announced that he had called off a planned strike on Iran.

West Texas Intermediate futures, the U.S. benchmark, slipped roughly 5% to close at $80.34 per barrel, while Brent crude, the international benchmark, declined 4.7% to settle at $83.77 a barrel.

Trump made the announcement early Sunday, saying he had canceled the strike following requests from Tehran and other Middle Eastern countries.

In a Truth Social post, he wrote: “We have just been asked by Iran, and other Middle Eastern Countries, to hold off any attack in that the perimeters of a deal has been agreed to.”

The president indicated that the proposed agreement would include the immediate, complete, and total opening of the Hormuz Strait, as well as an end to Iran’s nuclear threat.

Trump had been weighing additional strikes amid diminishing prospects for a diplomatic resolution to the conflict that began on Feb. 28. He stated that the U.S. and Iran would hold negotiations on Monday.

Tehran denied that talks were planned with Washington, according to state news outlet PressTV.

Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei said Tehran was only holding talks with Oman regarding the routes ships can use through the Strait of Hormuz.

In a subsequent Truth Social post, Trump added that whether “Iran wants to admit it or not, we are, in fact, talking of a solution to a problem that they have caused for decades.”

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