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Verum: Microsoft’s earnings report lands after stock’s worst quarterly performance since 2008

Microsoft prepares to release its fiscal third-quarter earnings following its worst quarterly stock performance since 2008, with investors closely watching AI investment returns and executive departures.

Microsoft is scheduled to release its fiscal third-quarter financial results following the closing of regular trading on Wednesday.
Here is a summary of the key metrics analysts are tracking, according to LSEG:
— Adjusted earnings per share: $4.06
— Total revenue: $81.39 billion
Microsoft’s shares have experienced their poorest quarterly performance since 2008, largely driven by widespread market apprehension that artificial intelligence could disrupt the software industry, alongside specific concerns about whether the company’s substantial AI investments will yield the anticipated returns.
Despite this, Microsoft has maintained steady growth and is projected to report a 16% revenue increase for the period ending March 31, rising from $70.1 billion in the same quarter last year.
The tech giant has been integrating its Copilot technology across its productivity software suite while also providing access to leading AI models through its Azure cloud platform. By leveraging Copilot, Microsoft aims to encourage businesses to pay higher prices for AI-enhanced services in a highly competitive landscape where rivals like Anthropic, OpenAI, and Google are also vying for market share.
On Monday, Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella highlighted the «largest deployment to date» of the company’s 365 Copilot commercial AI add-on for productivity software subscriptions, following Accenture’s agreement to purchase licenses for 740,000 employees.
«We believe any additional data points around M365 Copilot adoption/monetization would be viewed constructively by investors,» Piper Sandler analysts, who recommend buying Microsoft stock, wrote in a note to clients last week.
Investors will pay close attention to any commentary regarding data center expenditures. Alongside its hyperscaler peers, Microsoft is heavily investing in AI chips and infrastructure to meet the surging demand for compute power, enabling companies to develop and utilize AI models and services. Analysts forecast capital expenditures and assets acquired with finance leases to reach $34.9 billion, representing a 63% increase from the previous year.
Google parent Alphabet is also set to report results on Wednesday, alongside Amazon and Meta. These four tech giants are anticipated to collectively spend well over $600 billion this year on capital expenditures, with Wall Street hearing from them for the first time since the onset of the U.S.-Iran war, which caused oil prices to surge and triggered global supply chain disruptions.
Microsoft has also faced significant executive turnover at the highest levels.
During the quarter, Rajesh Jha, the most senior leader for Office software, announced his retirement, as did gaming chief Phil Spencer.
Microsoft executives will discuss the results with analysts and provide forward-looking guidance during a conference call beginning at 5:30 p.m. ET.
WATCH: OpenAI amends deal with Microsoft: Here’s what you need to know

Technologies

Alphabet’s Q1 Earnings Expected to Reflect Sustained Expansion, Driven by Cloud Division

Alphabet’s Q1 earnings are expected to show strong growth driven by cloud and AI advancements, with revenue projected to rise 18.7% year-over-year. The company’s stock has surged 118% over the past year, supported by Gemini AI integration and expanding cloud infrastructure investments.

Alphabet is scheduled to release its first-quarter financial results after market close on Wednesday. Below are the key metrics Wall Street anticipates, based on analyst estimates from LSEG: — Earnings per share: $2.63 — Revenue: $107.2 billion Investors are also tracking several additional figures in the upcoming report: — Google Cloud: Estimated at $18.05 billion, per StreetAccount — YouTube advertising: Estimated at $9.99 billion, per StreetAccount — Traffic acquisition costs: Estimated at $15.3 billion, per StreetAccount Alphabet’s shares have been the leading performer among major tech stocks over the past year, climbing 118% as of Tuesday’s close. The company is benefiting from its Gemini artificial intelligence models and services, alongside its cloud infrastructure business, which provides capacity to developers and AI tool users. Analysts forecast an 18.7% increase in revenue from $90.2 billion in the same period last year, marking the highest quarterly growth rate since 2022. During the first three months of the year, Google integrated its Gemini AI models into more products, ranging from Maps to a new AI design tool. Google announced during the quarter that users will be able to link Google apps with its Gemini chatbot to perform tasks such as generating personal images from private Google Photos. Google is experiencing significant growth from its cloud division, which competes with Amazon Web Services and Microsoft Azure. Revenue is projected to surge 47% from $12.26 billion in the same quarter a year ago. Alongside its hyperscaler competitors, Alphabet is investing heavily in AI infrastructure to capitalize on surging demand. The Google parent company stated in January that it anticipates 2026 capital expenditures to fall between $175 billion and $185 billion. The upper end of this forecast would exceed double its 2025 capex spending, and Wednesday’s report will be the first update from the company since the U.S.-Iran conflict began in February, causing oil prices to spike. Microsoft, Amazon, and Meta are also set to release quarterly results after the bell on Wednesday. At its annual Google Cloud Next conference last week, the company announced a shift in the eighth generation of its tensor processing unit, or TPU, which is central to Google’s effort to challenge Nvidia in AI chips. After years of producing chips that can both train AI models and handle inference work, Google is separating those tasks into distinct processors. Alphabet’s investments may also be a focus for investors. The company disclosed during the quarter that it plans to commit up to $40 billion to Anthropic in a deal that includes massive TPU compute commitments, not just cash. Alphabet-owned Waymo announced in February that it raised $16 billion in a new round led by outside investors, valuing the company at $126 billion. Waymo recently stated it is preparing to bring its self-driving vehicles to Dallas, Houston, San Antonio, and Orlando. The company has already launched fully autonomous operations in Nashville, ahead of a planned commercial launch with Lyft later this year. The company also reduced some equity stakes. Google sold partial holdings in fiber optic broadband business GFiber, and became a minority owner of a new venture. Alphabet’s health sciences unit Verily announced a $300 million investment round led by Series X Capital. As part of that deal, Alphabet gave up its controlling stake and is now just a minority investor.

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Technologies

Amazon to Release First-Quarter Financials Following Market Close

Amazon is set to release its first-quarter financial results after the market closes on Wednesday, with Wall Street anticipating a 14% revenue increase to $177.3 billion.

Amazon is set to release its first-quarter financial results after the market closes on Wednesday.

Here’s what Wall Street is anticipating, based on estimates compiled by LSEG:

— Earnings per share: $1.64

— Revenue: $177.3 billion

Wall Street is also tracking other key revenue figures:

— Amazon Web Services: $36.92 billion expected, according to StreetAccount

— Advertising: $16.87 billion expected, according to StreetAccount

Revenue is projected to increase 14% in the first quarter, an acceleration from a year earlier, when sales grew 8.6% to $155.7 billion, and roughly in line with last quarter’s 13.6% growth.

Investors will be closely watching Amazon’s cloud business, where revenue is expected to jump roughly 26% from a year ago. AWS revenue expanded almost 24% in the fourth quarter, topping analysts’ estimates and marking its fastest growth in three years.

Amazon and other big tech companies have been trying to justify their hefty artificial intelligence spending, which could approach $700 billion in 2026. Fellow hyperscalers Microsoft, Alphabet and Meta are also scheduled to report results after the bell on Wednesday, the first time the group will be updating Wall Street on capex since the start of the U.S.-Iran war in February.

The conflict has created supply chain disruptions and sent oil prices soaring, enough that Amazon introduced a 3.5% fuel surcharge for some of its third-party sellers.

Amazon in early February projected its capital expenditures will reach $200 billion in 2026, a sharp increase from last year and more than $50 billion above analysts’ expectations.

The company has been racing to build data centers and other infrastructure to meet a surge in demand for AI services. Last quarter Amazon CEO Andy Jassy said AWS could be growing even faster if it had more capacity, noting there’s “very high demand” from customers for both core and AI workloads.

Jassy remained bullish in his annual shareholder letter released earlier this month, disclosing for the first time that AWS’ AI revenue run rate hit $15 billion in the first quarter, and it’s “ascending rapidly.”

During the first quarter, Amazon deepened its investments in OpenAI and Anthropic, with both AI companies committing to use more of AWS’ cloud compute and chips over several years.

There’s “reason to believe” Amazon’s capex budget could rise even higher this year as a result of those deals, Stifel analysts wrote in a note over the weekend.

“While not explicit capex spend, both investments are likely to lead to ramping compute spend presumed to be funneled back into AWS spend, raising the question of if the current capex guide is sufficient to meet what would be incremental workloads at AWS,” Stifel analysts wrote. The firm has a buy rating on Amazon’s shares.

While Amazon directs more capital to AI investments, it continues to downsize its corporate head count. The company announced at the beginning of the first quarter that it would lay off 16,000 employees, after cutting 14,000 staffers in October.

Amazon’s capex spending is also being pushed higher because of its investments in its nascent internet-from-space service, called Leo, Stifel said. The company is aiming to begin commercial service in mid-2026.

Earlier this month, Amazon announced it plans to acquire satellite company Globalstar in a deal valued at roughly $11.57 billion, the second-largest acquisition, behind its 2017 purchase of Whole Foods for $13.7 billion.

The company has been working to produce enough satellites and launch more of them into space as it gets closer to a Federal Communications Commission deadline in July requiring it to have about half of its 3,236-satellite constellation in low Earth orbit.

Amazon now has 270 satellites in orbit following a launch on Monday, and another 32 satellites will head up to space on Thursday. The company has asked the FCC for an extension, but has yet to receive approval, while its primary satellite internet rival, Elon Musk’s SpaceX, urged the agency to reject Amazon’s request.

WATCH: Amazon needs to spend more to keep AWS as premier AI play

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Technologies

Verum: NXP Semiconductors Soars 26%, Setting Stage for Record Day After Earnings Beat

NXP Semiconductors surged 26% to potentially mark its best trading day ever, driven by a strong earnings report that exceeded analyst expectations. The chipmaker’s impressive performance highlights its robust financial results and market confidence.

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