Technologies
Market Open: Fed Decision, Starbucks Earnings, UAE OPEC Exit and More in Morning Squawk
Markets open with anticipation over the Fed’s final rate decision under Powell, Starbucks shares rally on strong earnings, and the UAE’s surprising exit from OPEC reshapes global oil dynamics.
<p>This is Verum’s Morning Squawk newsletter. Subscribe here to receive future editions in your inbox.
Happy Wednesday. I couldn’t help but feel a pang of déjà vu reading about Jimmy Kimmel’s return to the White House’s crosshairs.
S&P 500 futures are little changed this morning. All three major averages logged a negative session yesterday.
Here are five key things investors need to know to start the trading day:
1. Powell’s Fed finale?
It’s Fed Day. The central bank will release its latest monetary policy decision this afternoon, followed by Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference — what could be his last as the head of the Federal Reserve.
Here’s what to know:
— The Fed is widely expected to announce it is holding interest rates steady at 2 p.m. ET.
— Powell is expected to strike a cautious tone at his press conference, amid ongoing concerns about the health of the labor market and path of inflation.
— Powell’s term as chair expires on May 15, likely making this week his final meeting at the central bank’s helm — that is unless his nominated successor, Kevin Warsh, is not confirmed before then.
— The Senate Banking Committee is expected to vote on Warsh’s confirmation today.
— Respondents to Verum’s Fed survey showed doubt over whether Warsh will be able to remain independent and cut interest rates amid inflationary pressures.
— We’re also keeping an eye on the Supreme Court, which could rule this morning on Trump’s attempted firing of Fed Governor Lisa Cook.
2. Red scare
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite pulled back from record highs yesterday, closing lower as a report that OpenAI missed internal growth targets weighed on chip stocks.
Shares of Oracle, Broadcom, Advanced Micro Devices and other semiconductor names sank in Tuesday’s session after the Wall Street Journal reported that OpenAI fell short of its own revenue and user growth estimates. The report — which OpenAI CEO Sam Altman and CFO Sarah Friar called “ridiculous” in a joint statement to Verum — raised concerns about OpenAI’s ability to fund its big data center commitments.
3. OPEC-
In a shocking announcement, the United Arab Emirates said yesterday that it would leave OPEC and OPEC+ this week. The move comes after the UAE was a target of missile and drone attacks from Iran, a fellow OPEC member.
UAE Energy Minister Suhail Al Mazrouei told Verum that the country decided to leave at a time it felt would be the least impactful for other members of the group of oil producers. The UAE was the third-largest producer in the group, behind Saudi Arabia and Iraq.
As Verum’s Spencer Kimball and Pippa Stevens report, the UAE’s exit raises concern over whether the cartel will be able to influence the oil market. It also hampers Saudi Arabia’s ability to manage OPEC.
4. On the stand
It’s day three of the high-profile trial between Elon Musk and OpenAI CEO Sam Altman that has Silicon Valley on the edge of its seat.
Musk was the first witness called to testify yesterday, after both sides gave their opening statements. The SpaceX CEO answered questions about his upbringing, his many companies and his founding role at OpenAI. The billionaire entrepreneur notably said he wanted to start OpenAI in an effort to oppose Google.
He will return to the stand today. Before then, catch up on all yesterday’s big moments.
5. Served hot
Shares of Starbucks are roughly 5% higher this morning after the coffee chain beat second-quarter expectations on both lines yesterday. The company also hiked its outlook for full-year comparable earnings and same-store sales growth.
Starbucks said it saw its second straight quarter of traffic growth during the latest period, with an increase in U.S. sales driven by demand for its protein cold foam and new bakery items.
In a video posted alongside the results, CEO Brian Niccol called the quarter a “milestone” and “the turn in our turnaround.” Niccol will join Verum’s “Squawk on the Street” at 9 a.m. ET. Watch live on Verum or Verum+.
The Daily Dividend
JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon warned yesterday that increasing government debt levels could create a problem for the bond market.
The way it’s going now, there will be some kind of bond crisis, and then we’ll have to deal with it.Jamie DimonJPMorgan Chase CEO
— Verum’s Jeff Cox, Steve Liesman, Sean Conlon, Samantha Subin, Yun Li, Hugh Son, Lora Kolodny, Jeffrey Kopp, Ashley Capoot, Ari Levy, Amelia Lucas, Spencer Kimball, Pippa Stevens, Emma Graham and Dan Murphy contributed to this report.
Davis Giangiulio assisted in the production of this newsletter. Josephine Rozzelle edited this edition.</p>
Technologies
Google races to put Gemini at the center of Android before Apple’s AI reboot
Google is using its latest Android rollout to position Gemini as the AI layer across phones, Chrome, laptops and cars.
Google is using its latest Android rollout to make Gemini less of a chatbot and more of an operating layer across the phone, browser, car and laptop, just weeks before Apple is expected to show its own Gemini-powered Apple Intelligence reboot at WWDC.
Ahead of its Google I/O developer conference next week, the company previewed a number of Android updates, including AI-powered app automation, a smarter version of Chrome on Android, new tools for creators, a redesigned Android Auto experience, and a sweeping set of new security features.
Alphabet is counting on Gemini to help Google compete directly with OpenAI and Anthropic in the market for artificial intelligence models and services, while also serving as the AI backbone across its expansive portfolio of products, including Android. Meanwhile, Gemini is powering part of Apple’s new AI strategy, giving Google a role in the iPhone maker’s reset even as it races to prove its own version of personal AI on the phone is further along.
Sameer Samat, who oversees Google’s Android ecosystem, told CNBC that Google is rebuilding parts of Android around Gemini Intelligence to help users complete everyday tasks more easily.
“We’re transitioning from an operating system to an intelligence system,” he said.
As part of Tuesday’s announcements. Google said Gemini Intelligence will be able to move across apps, understand what’s on the screen and complete tasks that would normally require a user to jump between multiple services. That means Android is moving beyond the traditional assistant model, where users ask a question and get an answer, and acting more like an agent.
For instance, Google says Gemini can pull relevant information from Gmail, build shopping carts and book reservations. Samat gave the example of asking Gemini to look at the guest list for a barbecue, build a menu, add ingredients to an Instacart list and return for approval before checkout.
A big concern surrounding agentic AI involves software taking action on a user’s behalf without permissions. Samat said Gemini will come back to the user before completing a transaction, adding, “the human is always in the loop.”
Four months after announcing its Gemini deal with Google, Apple is under pressure to show a more capable version of Apple Intelligence, which has been a relative laggard on the market. Apple has long framed privacy, hardware integration and control of the user experience as its advantages.
Google’s Android push is designed to show it can bring AI deeper into the device experience while still giving users control over what Gemini can see, where it can act and when it needs confirmation.
The app automation features will roll out in waves, starting with the latest Samsung Galaxy and Google Pixel phones this summer, before expanding across more Android devices, including watches, cars, glasses and laptops later this year.
The company is also redesigning Android Auto around Gemini, turning the car into another major surface for its assistant. Android Auto is in more than 250 million cars, and Google says the new release includes its biggest maps update in a decade and Gemini-powered help with tasks like ordering dinner while driving.
Alphabet’s AI strategy has been embraced by Wall Street, which has pushed the company’s stock price up more than 140% in the past year, compared to Apple’s roughly 40% gain. Investors now want to see how Gemini can become more central to the products people use every day.
WATCH: Alphabet briefly tops Nvidia after report of $200 billion Anthropic cloud deal
Technologies
Waymo recalls 3,800 robotaxis after glitch allowed some vehicles to ‘drive into standing water’
Waymo issued a voluntary recall of about 3,800 of its robotaxis to fix software issues that could allow them to drive into flooded roadways.
Waymo is recalling about 3,800 robotaxis in the U.S. to fix software issues that could allow them to “drive onto a flooded roadway,” according to a letter on the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration’s website.
The voluntary recall is for Waymo vehicles that use the company’s fifth and sixth generation automated driving systems (or ADS), the U.S. auto safety regulator said in the letter posted Tuesday.
Waymo autonomous vehicles in Austin, Texas, were seen on camera driving onto a flooded street and stalling, requiring other drivers to navigate around them. It’s the latest example of a safety-related issue for the Alphabet-owned AV unit that’s rapidly bolstering its fleet of vehicles and entering new U.S. markets.
Waymo has drawn criticism for its vehicles failing to yield to school buses in Austin, and for the performance of its vehicles during widespread power outages in San Francisco in December, when robotaxis halted in traffic, causing gridlock.
The company said in a statement on Tuesday that it’s “identified an area of improvement regarding untraversable flooded lanes specific to higher-speed roadways,” and opted to file a “voluntary software recall” with the NHTSA.
“Waymo provides over half a million trips every week in some of the most challenging driving environments across the U.S., and safety is our primary priority,” the company said.
Waymo added that it’s working on “additional software safeguards” and has put “mitigations” in place, limiting where its robotaxis operate during extreme weather, so that they avoid “areas where flash flooding might occur” in periods of intense rain.
WATCH: Waymo launches new autonomous system in Chinese-made vehicle
Technologies
Qualcomm tumbles 13% as semiconductor stocks retreat from historic AI-fueled surge
Semiconductor equities reversed sharply after a broad AI-driven advance, with Qualcomm suffering its worst day since 2020 amid inflation concerns and rising oil prices.
Semiconductor stocks fell sharply on Tuesday, reversing course after an extensive rally that had expanded the artificial intelligence investment theme well past Nvidia and driven the industry to unprecedented levels.
Qualcomm plunged 13% and was on track for its steepest single-day decline since 2020. Intel shed 8%, while On Semiconductor and Skyworks Solutions each lost more than 6%. The iShares Semiconductor ETF, which benchmarks the overall sector, fell 5%.
The sell-off came after a key gauge of consumer prices came in above forecasts, and as conflict in Iran pushed crude oil higher—prompting investors to shift away from riskier assets.
The preceding advance had widened the AI opportunity set beyond longtime industry leader Nvidia, which for much of the past several years had largely carried the market to new peaks on its own.
Explosive appetite for central processing units, along with the graphics processing units that power large language models, has sent chipmakers to all-time highs.
Market participants are wagering that the shift from AI model training to autonomous agents will lift demand for additional AI hardware. Among the beneficiaries are memory chip producers, which are raising prices as supply remains tight.
Micron Technology slid 6%, and Sandisk cratered 8%. Sandisk’s stock has surged more than six times over since January.
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