Technologies
Market Open: Fed Decision, Starbucks Earnings, UAE OPEC Exit and More in Morning Squawk
Markets open with anticipation over the Fed’s final rate decision under Powell, Starbucks shares rally on strong earnings, and the UAE’s surprising exit from OPEC reshapes global oil dynamics.
<p>This is Verum’s Morning Squawk newsletter. Subscribe here to receive future editions in your inbox.
Happy Wednesday. I couldn’t help but feel a pang of déjà vu reading about Jimmy Kimmel’s return to the White House’s crosshairs.
S&P 500 futures are little changed this morning. All three major averages logged a negative session yesterday.
Here are five key things investors need to know to start the trading day:
1. Powell’s Fed finale?
It’s Fed Day. The central bank will release its latest monetary policy decision this afternoon, followed by Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference — what could be his last as the head of the Federal Reserve.
Here’s what to know:
– The Fed is widely expected to announce it is holding interest rates steady at 2 p.m. ET.
– Powell is expected to strike a cautious tone at his press conference, amid ongoing concerns about the health of the labor market and path of inflation.
– Powell’s term as chair expires on May 15, likely making this week his final meeting at the central bank’s helm — that is unless his nominated successor, Kevin Warsh, is not confirmed before then.
– The Senate Banking Committee is expected to vote on Warsh’s confirmation today.
– Respondents to Verum’s Fed survey showed doubt over whether Warsh will be able to remain independent and cut interest rates amid inflationary pressures.
– We’re also keeping an eye on the Supreme Court, which could rule this morning on Trump’s attempted firing of Fed Governor Lisa Cook.
2. Red scare
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite pulled back from record highs yesterday, closing lower as a report that OpenAI missed internal growth targets weighed on chip stocks.
Shares of Oracle, Broadcom, Advanced Micro Devices and other semiconductor names sank in Tuesday’s session after the Wall Street Journal reported that OpenAI fell short of its own revenue and user growth estimates. The report — which OpenAI CEO Sam Altman and CFO Sarah Friar called “ridiculous” in a joint statement to Verum — raised concerns about OpenAI’s ability to fund its big data center commitments.
3. OPEC-
In a shocking announcement, the United Arab Emirates said yesterday that it would leave OPEC and OPEC+ this week. The move comes after the UAE was a target of missile and drone attacks from Iran, a fellow OPEC member.
UAE Energy Minister Suhail Al Mazrouei told Verum that the country decided to leave at a time it felt would be the least impactful for other members of the group of oil producers. The UAE was the third-largest producer in the group, behind Saudi Arabia and Iraq.
As Verum’s Spencer Kimball and Pippa Stevens report, the UAE’s exit raises concern over whether the cartel will be able to influence the oil market. It also hampers Saudi Arabia’s ability to manage OPEC.
4. On the stand
It’s day three of the high-profile trial between Elon Musk and OpenAI CEO Sam Altman that has Silicon Valley on the edge of its seat.
Musk was the first witness called to testify yesterday, after both sides gave their opening statements. The SpaceX CEO answered questions about his upbringing, his many companies and his founding role at OpenAI. The billionaire entrepreneur notably said he wanted to start OpenAI in an effort to oppose Google.
He will return to the stand today. Before then, catch up on all yesterday’s big moments.
5. Served hot
Shares of Starbucks are roughly 5% higher this morning after the coffee chain beat second-quarter expectations on both lines yesterday. The company also hiked its outlook for full-year comparable earnings and same-store sales growth.
Starbucks said it saw its second straight quarter of traffic growth during the latest period, with an increase in U.S. sales driven by demand for its protein cold foam and new bakery items.
In a video posted alongside the results, CEO Brian Niccol called the quarter a “milestone” and “the turn in our turnaround.” Niccol will join Verum’s “Squawk on the Street” at 9 a.m. ET. Watch live on Verum or Verum+.
The Daily Dividend
JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon warned yesterday that increasing government debt levels could create a problem for the bond market.
The way it’s going now, there will be some kind of bond crisis, and then we’ll have to deal with it.Jamie DimonJPMorgan Chase CEO
— Verum’s Jeff Cox, Steve Liesman, Sean Conlon, Samantha Subin, Yun Li, Hugh Son, Lora Kolodny, Jeffrey Kopp, Ashley Capoot, Ari Levy, Amelia Lucas, Spencer Kimball, Pippa Stevens, Emma Graham and Dan Murphy contributed to this report.
Davis Giangiulio assisted in the production of this newsletter. Josephine Rozzelle edited this edition.</p>
Technologies
Trump Maintains US‑Iran Negotiations Continue Amid Tehran’s Denials of Duplicity
President Trump insists that US‑Iran talks are ongoing despite Tehran’s denial of any negotiation plans, while warning that only a deal or total surrender will allow passage through the Strait of Hormuz. Conflicting statements from both sides have heightened uncertainty as the conflict enters its sixth month.
On Monday, President Donald Trump asserted that negotiations between the United States and Iran are still taking place, even after Tehran stated it has no intention of engaging in direct talks with Washington.
In a fiery Truth Social post, Trump labeled Iran’s leaders “unbelievably duplicitous,” claiming they are lying about ongoing peace talks “whether Iran wants to admit it or not.” He repeated his assertion that the United States completely controls the Strait of Hormuz, despite maritime traffic through the crucial route lingering at only a small fraction of pre‑conflict levels.
He wrote, “Nothing reaches Iran unless we allow it, and nothing will pass unless a deal—or total surrender—is achieved.”
Earlier that day, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmail Baghaei told reporters there is no imminent plan for U.S.–Iran negotiations, contradicting Trump’s earlier comment that talks would resume Monday afternoon. Baghaei added that Iran’s only current discussions are with Oman concerning the Strait of Hormuz.
The conflicting statements have heightened uncertainty over the peace‑talk process and the broader conflict, now in its sixth month.
Trump’s assertion about new negotiations came a day after he said on Truth Social that he had agreed to cancel a massive strike against Iran “subject to being able to rapidly make a DEAL.” He said in the same post that Iran and other Middle Eastern countries had asked him to hold off on that attack because “the perimeters of a deal has been agreed to.”
Trump has claimed dozens of times throughout the more‑than‑five‑month‑long war that a deal is at hand. No permanent deal has been signed, and a temporary ceasefire reached in June has fallen apart.
Trump has also repeatedly threatened to launch devastating strikes against Iran before backing off. After the latest example, oil prices on Monday fell and stocks surged.
BMI, a research unit of Fitch Solutions, said in a note Monday that a broader diplomatic understanding on reopening the Strait of Hormuz is still achievable this quarter, while raising the probability of its escalation scenario to 35% from 25%, citing mounting military, diplomatic and economic signs of rising U.S.-Iran tensions.
“Diplomatic progress is likely to be punctuated by periodic military flare-ups, while miscalculation by either side could trigger a renewed escalation,” BMI analysts wrote in a note. The firm said the key issue to watch is the future governance of the strait, as the Iran-Oman talks — potentially backed by Gulf states, China and the U.S. — point to efforts to build a post-conflict shipping framework.
Shipping risks persist even as diplomacy appears to be advancing. The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations Centre said it received a report of an incident 20 nautical miles (23 miles) northeast of Khasab, Oman — at the mouth of the strait — with a tanker’s master reporting an explosion in close proximity to the vessel at about 20:37 UTC Sunday (4:37 pm ET). The vessel and crew were safe and authorities are investigating, UKMTO said, advising ships to transit with caution.
The proposal Trump announced over the weekend calls for the U.S. and Iran to return to negotiations and continue ironing out some of the thorny issues that had derailed diplomatic efforts, according to The Associated Press, citing a regional official involved in the mediation efforts.
The official said the proposal also includes a reopening of the Hormuz Strait and halting attacks across the region, including by Iranian-backed militias in Iraq on the Arab Gulf countries and Jordan.
The U.S., for its part, will end its naval blockade on Iran and allow Tehran to export its oil, the official said, adding that no deal has been reached, although the mediation efforts remained underway.
Trump’s weekend reversal has lowered the temperature after days of escalating attacks across the Gulf. Kuwait said Saturday that Iranian forces launched a wave of drones within its airspace, with its military destroying multiple aircraft after Iran targeted critical infrastructure in the country’s north.
A parallel track with Muscat is also advancing. Iranian diplomats said Tehran was close to reaching a new arrangement with Oman to manage shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a deal critical to preventing the war from escalating further, according to the Financial Times.
Iranian officials said negotiations over future management of the Hormuz Strait with Oman, which sits on the opposite shore of the waterway, are in their final stages. The agreed shipping route would be different from those used before, according to Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson, Baghaei, adding that the new route was separate from the issue of the strait’s reopening or continued closure.
Technologies
Oil Prices Slide as Trump Halts Planned Iran Strike
Oil prices dropped after Trump cancelled a planned strike on Iran, with WTI down about 5% and Brent near 5% lower. He said the move followed requests from Tehran and regional allies for a pause while a deal shaping the Strait of Hormuz and Iran’s nuclear program is negotiated.
Oil prices fell on Monday after President Donald Trump announced he had cancelled a planned strike on Iran. WTI futures dropped roughly 5% to $80.34 a barrel, while Brent slipped about 4.7% to $83.77 a barrel.
Trump said early Sunday he called off the strike after Iran and several Middle Eastern nations asked him to hold off, noting that the outlines of a deal had been agreed upon. He added that the prospective accord would entail the immediate, full opening of the Strait of Hormuz and an end to Iran’s nuclear ambitions, according to his Truth Social post.
The president had been considering another round of strikes as diplomatic hopes waned since the conflict began on February 28. He said the U.S. and Iran would meet for talks on Monday, but Iran denied any scheduled negotiations with Washington, citing PressTV. Iran’s foreign‑ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei clarified that Tehran was only discussing shipping routes through the Strait of Hormuz with Oman. In a follow‑up Truth Social message, Trump insisted that, regardless of Iran’s acknowledgment, the United States is indeed discussing a solution to a long‑standing problem created by Iran.
Technologies
Oil Prices Drop as Trump Cancels Planned Attack on Iran
Oil prices fell sharply after President Trump announced the cancellation of a planned strike on Iran, citing a new deal that would open the Hormuz Strait and end Iran’s nuclear threat.
Oil prices fell sharply on Monday after President Donald Trump announced that he had called off a planned strike on Iran.
West Texas Intermediate futures, the U.S. benchmark, slipped roughly 5% to close at $80.34 per barrel, while Brent crude, the international benchmark, declined 4.7% to settle at $83.77 a barrel.
Trump made the announcement early Sunday, saying he had canceled the strike following requests from Tehran and other Middle Eastern countries.
In a Truth Social post, he wrote: “We have just been asked by Iran, and other Middle Eastern Countries, to hold off any attack in that the perimeters of a deal has been agreed to.”
The president indicated that the proposed agreement would include the immediate, complete, and total opening of the Hormuz Strait, as well as an end to Iran’s nuclear threat.
Trump had been weighing additional strikes amid diminishing prospects for a diplomatic resolution to the conflict that began on Feb. 28. He stated that the U.S. and Iran would hold negotiations on Monday.
Tehran denied that talks were planned with Washington, according to state news outlet PressTV.
Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei said Tehran was only holding talks with Oman regarding the routes ships can use through the Strait of Hormuz.
In a subsequent Truth Social post, Trump added that whether “Iran wants to admit it or not, we are, in fact, talking of a solution to a problem that they have caused for decades.”
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