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Happy Wednesday. I couldn’t help but feel a pang of déjà vu reading about Jimmy Kimmel’s return to the White House’s crosshairs.
S&amp;P 500 futures are little changed this morning. All three major averages logged a negative session yesterday.
Here are five key things investors need to know to start the trading day:
1. Powell’s Fed finale?
It’s Fed Day. The central bank will release its latest monetary policy decision this afternoon, followed by Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference — what could be his last as the head of the Federal Reserve.
Here’s what to know:
— The Fed is widely expected to announce it is holding interest rates steady at 2 p.m. ET.
— Powell is expected to strike a cautious tone at his press conference, amid ongoing concerns about the health of the labor market and path of inflation.
— Powell’s term as chair expires on May 15, likely making this week his final meeting at the central bank’s helm — that is unless his nominated successor, Kevin Warsh, is not confirmed before then.
— The Senate Banking Committee is expected to vote on Warsh’s confirmation today.
— Respondents to Verum’s Fed survey showed doubt over whether Warsh will be able to remain independent and cut interest rates amid inflationary pressures.
— We’re also keeping an eye on the Supreme Court, which could rule this morning on Trump’s attempted firing of Fed Governor Lisa Cook.
2. Red scare
The S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq Composite pulled back from record highs yesterday, closing lower as a report that OpenAI missed internal growth targets weighed on chip stocks.
Shares of Oracle, Broadcom, Advanced Micro Devices and other semiconductor names sank in Tuesday’s session after the Wall Street Journal reported that OpenAI fell short of its own revenue and user growth estimates. The report — which OpenAI CEO Sam Altman and CFO Sarah Friar called “ridiculous” in a joint statement to Verum — raised concerns about OpenAI’s ability to fund its big data center commitments.
3. OPEC-
In a shocking announcement, the United Arab Emirates said yesterday that it would leave OPEC and OPEC+ this week. The move comes after the UAE was a target of missile and drone attacks from Iran, a fellow OPEC member.
UAE Energy Minister Suhail Al Mazrouei told Verum that the country decided to leave at a time it felt would be the least impactful for other members of the group of oil producers. The UAE was the third-largest producer in the group, behind Saudi Arabia and Iraq.
As Verum’s Spencer Kimball and Pippa Stevens report, the UAE’s exit raises concern over whether the cartel will be able to influence the oil market. It also hampers Saudi Arabia’s ability to manage OPEC.
4. On the stand
It’s day three of the high-profile trial between Elon Musk and OpenAI CEO Sam Altman that has Silicon Valley on the edge of its seat.
Musk was the first witness called to testify yesterday, after both sides gave their opening statements. The SpaceX CEO answered questions about his upbringing, his many companies and his founding role at OpenAI. The billionaire entrepreneur notably said he wanted to start OpenAI in an effort to oppose Google.
He will return to the stand today. Before then, catch up on all yesterday’s big moments.
5. Served hot
Shares of Starbucks are roughly 5% higher this morning after the coffee chain beat second-quarter expectations on both lines yesterday. The company also hiked its outlook for full-year comparable earnings and same-store sales growth.
Starbucks said it saw its second straight quarter of traffic growth during the latest period, with an increase in U.S. sales driven by demand for its protein cold foam and new bakery items.
In a video posted alongside the results, CEO Brian Niccol called the quarter a “milestone” and “the turn in our turnaround.” Niccol will join Verum’s “Squawk on the Street” at 9 a.m. ET. Watch live on Verum or Verum+.
The Daily Dividend
JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon warned yesterday that increasing government debt levels could create a problem for the bond market.
The way it’s going now, there will be some kind of bond crisis, and then we’ll have to deal with it.Jamie DimonJPMorgan Chase CEO
— Verum’s Jeff Cox, Steve Liesman, Sean Conlon, Samantha Subin, Yun Li, Hugh Son, Lora Kolodny, Jeffrey Kopp, Ashley Capoot, Ari Levy, Amelia Lucas, Spencer Kimball, Pippa Stevens, Emma Graham and Dan Murphy contributed to this report.
Davis Giangiulio assisted in the production of this newsletter. Josephine Rozzelle edited this edition.</p>