Tesla is scheduled to release its first-quarter financial results after market hours on Wednesday.
Here are the key expectations from Wall Street, based on LSEG estimates:
— Projected earnings per share: 37 cents
— Anticipated revenue: $22.64 billion
Tesla’s stock has underperformed compared to other megacap stocks on Wall Street this year, dropping 14% as of Tuesday’s close, largely due to sluggish sales in its core automotive division. In contrast, the S&P 500 has risen by over 3%.
Analysts forecast a 17% revenue increase from $19.3 billion in the same period last year, marking the company’s strongest growth period since mid-2023.
The past year has been challenging due to competition from Chinese automakers like Xiaomi and BYD, which provide advanced yet more affordable models against Tesla’s aging electric vehicle lineup. Additionally, Tesla faces consumer backlash related to CEO Elon Musk’s involvement with the Trump administration, his provocative political statements, and support for far-right politicians.
Earlier this month, Tesla announced 358,023 vehicle deliveries for the first quarter, a decrease from the previous quarter but a 6% increase year-over-year. The company has experienced annual declines in deliveries for the past two years.
Musk has attempted to shift focus toward the company’s advancements in autonomous driving technology and humanoid robots. While Tesla is testing a limited number of driverless cars for its ride-hailing service in Texas, the company still depends heavily on EV sales for revenue and has not yet launched a vehicle ready for robotaxi operations.
Tesla offers an FSD (Supervised) system for $99 monthly, which requires a human supervisor to remain attentive and ready to take control at any moment. Recently, Tesla received approval to sell a version of FSD (Supervised) in the Netherlands and is pursuing wider European regulatory clearance.
In its delivery report, Tesla noted the deployment of 8.8 gigawatt hours of battery energy storage systems during the first quarter of 2026, falling short of Wall Street expectations after a record 14.2 gigawatt hours in Q4 2025.
Musk’s focus has been divided this quarter as he merged his aerospace and defense company SpaceX with his AI venture xAI in a $1.25 trillion deal. He is now preparing the combined entity for what is anticipated to be a historic IPO.
In Tesla’s January earnings report, the company disclosed investing approximately $2 billion in xAI, with holdings converted to SpaceX shares. Tesla and SpaceX are collaborating on numerous joint initiatives, including a Terafab chip manufacturing facility in Texas and deeper integration of xAI’s Grok models and AI chatbot into Tesla vehicles and robotics.
Investors who submitted questions online ahead of Wednesday’s earnings call inquired about Tesla and SpaceX’s ongoing collaboration and potential future merger.
Shareholders are also demanding concrete data on Tesla’s long-promised autonomous technology, timelines for unveiling the latest Optimus humanoid robots, and updates on its ride-hailing business, where it lags behind Alphabet’s Waymo in the U.S. and Baidu’s Apollo Go in China.
Tesla’s current Robotaxi service primarily relies on human drivers in California or human safety supervisors inside the vehicle. The company recently announced expansions to Dallas and Houston.
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