The bond market is giving 2022 vibes right now, and not in a positive way, according to Bank of America. Yields skyrocketed to multiyear highs this week, as oil prices stay elevated and new U.S. data suggests the Federal Reserve may need to hike rates even more to quell inflation. The benchmark 10-year Treasury note yield reached levels not seen since 2007 above 5.2%. The 30-year bond yield also spiked to its highest levels since 2004. Equities, for their part, weathered the move higher well. The S & P 500 is up around 1% week to date. The Nasdaq Composite jumped nearly 2%. But for BofA technical strategist Paul Ciana, this may be the calm before the storm. US10Y YTD bar US 10-year yield in 2026 “We see parallels with 2022, when the US 10-year real yield broke out of a trading range and rose from approximately -1% to +1.5%. Around that period, the SPX, Euro and Bitcoin formed important peaks and declined, while equity, rates and FX volatility accelerated higher,” Ciana wrote. “The comparison does not require an identical outcome, but we do think it argues for greater caution.” Stocks entered a bear market in 2022, as the Fed quickly raised rates to fend off a massive surge in inflation. The S & P 500 fell more than 19% that year, marking its worst annual performance since 2008 — when it tumbled 38%. Ciana noted investors can hedge by scooping up put options on the SPY ETF , which tracks the S & P 500. “Investors seeking protection may consider one- to three-month SPY 750 puts or 750/730 put spreads,” he said. “The lower strike corresponds to the July lows.” “However, the rise in real yields is quite stretched on weekly RSIs. If yields retrace lower and positive SPX seasonals follow through, hedges may not perform,” he said, referring the relative strength index, a popular indicator that helps assess whether an investment may be overbought or oversold.

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Iranian and U.S. officials reportedly met separately with mediators Monday to push for a ceasefire.

Middle Eastern crude exports rebounded this month to around their highest level since the war began in February.

An outright export ban by Washington on diesel would keep roughly 1.2 million barrels a day at home, and risks overwhelming Gulf Coast storage, according to Kpler.

The building of the destroyed Shajareh Tayebeh primary school is pictured surrounded by rubble in Minab in Iran’s Hormozgan province on August 10, 2026. Six months on, a team of AFP journalists obtained rare access to the school which has remained largely in ruins, its collapsed walls and twisted steel now surrounded by portraits of the children killed as Iranian flags flutter above the rubble. Iran says the attack on the school involved two separate US Tomahawk missiles but neither the United States nor Israel has officially claimed responsibility for the strike. (Photo by ATTA KENARE / AFP via Getty Images) /

Atta Kenare | Afp | Getty Images

U.S. and Iranian officials have reportedly held separate indirect talks with mediators on Monday, reviving efforts to end seven months of war as Tehran presses for a response to a revised ceasefire framework and Middle East crude exports climb to their highest level since the conflict began.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi met Qatari mediators in New York, where he remained after the United Nations General Assembly, and reportedly said he expects Washington’s reply by Tuesday. “We talked about ideas and how to find solutions to fulfil Iran’s conditions,” Araghchi said, adding that he planned to return to Tehran once a response arrives. “Whenever the Qataris have a response, they know how to get it to us.”

Iran’s proposal, first presented on the sidelines of last week’s General Assembly, calls for a four- to five-day U.S. timeline to release frozen Iranian funds, lift sanctions on Iranian oil and end the naval blockade of Iranian ports, with nuclear talks beginning within seven days. Tehran has tied any reopening of the Strait of Hormuz to those steps.

President Donald Trump had on Sunday called the plan “unacceptable” and rejected it, telling reporters Iran wants a swift deal because of the economic pressure it is under. Speaking at the White House Monday, Trump said U.S. officials had spoken separately with mediators but gave no further details, adding: “We’re going to win. It’s going to go pretty quickly.”

The diplomatic push comes as physical supply data shows the war’s toll on the oil market easing. Middle Eastern crude exports rebounded this month to around their highest level since the war began in February, Kpler data showed. “Middle East crude exports at just under 80% of pre-conflict levels,” the tracking firm said in a note on Monday.

The Strait of Hormuz itself remains far from normal. Kpler’s real-time tracking showed total clearance through the strait at 10,591 kilobarrels a day on Saturday, against a pre-war baseline of 17,133.