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iPhone Fold: Launch Date, Price, Huge Battery and Everything We Know

Apple might release its long-rumored first foldable phone in 2026, and the rumors continue to reveal potential hardware capabilities.

For years, rumors have swirled that Apple has been toiling away on a foldable iPhone, nicknamed the iPhone Fold. Over the last year, numerous leaks have suggested that it could actually be released in 2026. The latest rumor, from a leaker on Weibo, suggests that Apple’s first foldable will have a 5,500-mAh battery, which would make it the largest on any iPhone, surpassing the 5,088-mAh capacity on the iPhone 17 Pro Max. 

But most of the curiosity has been around how Apple’s mystery foldable will look. Recently, an Apple fan made a 3D-printed mock-up for an Apple book-style foldable’s possible design, looking more like a Microsoft Surface Duo merged with an iPhone 17 Pro than the Galaxy Z Fold 7 or Pixel 10 Pro Fold. In other words, a vision of two separate iPhone screens linked together rather than a continuous, folding display.

That’s an interesting proposition considering rumors have spoken of Apple’s efforts to reduce the seam where a foldable screen bends. The one on the iPhone Fold is rumored to have little or no crease, according to a recent report by the Chinese publication UDN. Screen creases, especially on early foldable phones, have long annoyed some consumers and critics. And while the crease on more recent foldables looks a lot less deep, it’s still there. Samsung’s new Galaxy Z TriFold has two screen creases, one for each of its hinges. It would be a major breakthrough if Apple has indeed found a way to fold a screen in half without leaving a crease.

We’ve yet to hear any official word on a foldable iPhone from Apple.

Foldable phones represent a tiny fraction of all phones sold globally. CNET found that 64% of people surveyed said they don’t want a foldable phone. But those numbers could change if Apple were to sell a foldable iPhone. Analysts at IDC forecast a 30% year-over-year growth if Apple were to launch a foldable iPhone in 2026.

Apple launched the iPhone 17 series along with the new super-thin iPhone Air in September. Given all the engineering it took to cram cameras and components into the top half of the Air, some have theorized that the device is a stepping stone to a foldable, which could take advantage of the Air’s internal design.

A lot of hope and expectation has been placed on Apple to release one, and if rumors are correct, we won’t have to wait much longer for the company to do so.

iPhone Fold history

Rumors suggest Apple is developing a book-style foldable like the Galaxy Z Fold 7. Years ago, in 2017, folks predicted that a foldable iPhone could launch in the then-near future of 2020 — which didn’t happen. Analysts and leakers have been kicking the release date down the road ever since, and rumors and wish lists have lingered as phone fans keep their hopes alive. Absent any confirmed details from Apple, here’s everything we know so far about the company’s future foray into foldables.

A new patent granted to Apple in July 2024, which was applied for years ago, shows how long the company has been working on a folding iPhone. Kuo’s report in early March said that an Apple foldable could launch at the end of 2026, with a 7.8-inch crease-free inner display and a 5.5-inch outer display.

Accordingly, Kuo believes the price would match that of other similar folding devices, at $2,000 to $2,500. Despite the high price tag, he says projected shipments are 3 to 5 million devices, which is a confident estimate given only 19.3 foldables were sold in 2024, market research firm IDC reported. 

Although many reports have focused on the company’s struggles to eliminate the crease within the internal folding display, Apple’s patent indicates that the development has been ongoing for some time. Creases have plagued foldable phones since their introduction in 2020, and although the most recent Samsung Galaxy Z Fold 7 and Samsung Galaxy Z Flip 7 have reduced the crease, it is still visible and noticeable. 

By mid-2024, market analysts at TrendForce estimated that display crease issues might push back an Apple foldable until 2027, according to 9to5Mac. Prior rumors said Apple may not launch its own flexible screen device until 2025, and Samsung hasn’t let phone fans forget it by releasing an app that will let Apple phone owners experience a Z Fold-esque experience by placing two iPhones side-by-side. 

Read more: I Visited Samsung’s Home Turf to See if Foldable Phones Are Really the Future

iPhone 2026 lineup

There’s no guarantee about which phones Apple will release during its usual September window, but the safest bet is on another series of flat phones, which we expect to be the iPhone 18 series. But what else could be coming alongside the usual lineup?

There could be an iPhone Air 2, though rumors conflict on whether to expect one next year or not. There’s been a lot more evidence for an iPhone Fold, though whether it comes out in 2026 or in later years is still uncertain. If the iPhone Fold does launch next year, more rumors have suggested a clamshell device has been prioritized and may come first — given reports of Apple researching a book-style foldable, we could get one of those as well. 

In mid-January, MacRumors reportedly saw a research note from analyst Jeff Pu suggesting that the iPhone Fold will pack 12GB of memory — as will the entire iPhone 18 line. Apple never discloses how much RAM is included in its phones, but specs sites like GSMArena have reported that the standard iPhone 17 has 8GB of RAM, while the rest of the series (iPhone Air, 17 Pro and Pro Max) all have 12GB. If correct, that means Apple doesn’t think its foldable will need more memory than its standard flat phones — it’ll have more screen area, but potentially no better hardware than its iPhone 18 siblings.

It’s also interesting to see the standard iPhone 18 packing 12GB of memory, as the RAM shortage is predicted to hike prices on phones released in 2026. Apple may be willing to pay the price for a more capable basic model of iPhone 18, or perhaps it’ll pass those costs on to the consumer with a price hike. 

iPhone Fold or iPhone Air 2?

There’s the chance that we get an iPhone Fold next year, which rumors have said could launch in 2026 at the earliest, though it could also come out in 2027 or later. It should be noted that analysts and rumors had predicted a foldable iPhone release from as far back as 2022, so the rolling prospective launch windows don’t lend confidence that we’ll necessarily see the device come out next year. Given Samsung’s six-year head start on making foldables, Apple seems to be in no rush to get one out.

While the iPhone Air came out with the iPhone 17 handsets, there are conflicting rumors on whether we’ll see an iPhone Air 2 in 2026. A recent report from The Information says that Apple is delaying the release of the next version of the iPhone, citing people familiar with the matter. This follows rumors that disappointing iPhone Air sales after launch led Apple to dial back production, though even that claim was denounced by TD Cowen, according to a note from the investment research firm that was seen by AppleInsider that asserted the company would continue producing the thin phone. The Information’s story was amended to say that the delay could be caused by engineers who are re-considering the Air’s design so that it could support a second rear camera.

All of which casts doubt on whether we’ll get an iPhone Air 2 next year, but there’s not enough evidence yet to roundly dismiss the possibility. 

iPhone Fold specs

There are no confirmed specs for the iPhone Fold, because Apple hasn’t even confirmed one exists or is coming out. Given we don’t have a year of expected release, we can’t much predict what kind of internal specs the iPhone Fold will have — presumably, Apple will want its most powerful A-series chip to run it, along with enough RAM to handle two or three displays (depending on whether it folds inward or outward and needs a dedicated outer screen). 

We do have some predictions for other specs, though only for the book-style Fold (not the clamshell). In March, analyst Kuo predicted the larger Fold could have a 5.5-inch outer screen and 7.8-inch inner display. When folded up, it will be 9-9.5mm thick and 4.5-4.8mm when unfolded. A front-facing camera will be available whether the phone is folded or unfolded, while it will also have two rear cameras. 

Kuo predicted that the device will use the same high-density battery cells as used in what he referred to then as the “ultra-thin iPhone 17” which is presumably the iPhone Air. But that trim thickness means the foldable may forgo Face ID, so the device may use Touch ID in a side button. 

Some rumors about hardware have emerged. In January, an analyst note seen by MacRumors suggests Apple’s foldable could launch with 12GB of RAM, the same amount in the Galaxy Z Fold 7‘s starting configuration. That could mean Apple doesn’t need a lot of memory to handle multiple screens or that it isn’t banking on big AI features that can take up a lot of RAM.

We finally have a prediction on the iPhone Fold’s battery, with Weibo leaker Fixed Focus Digital posting that it will have a 5,500-mAh capacity, as 9to5Mac first reported. That’s substantially larger than batteries on some other foldables — for example, the Galaxy Z Fold 7 has a 4,400-mAh capacity — but Samsung has been in the foldable game for so many years that it’s bound to have increased efficiency, likely in an effort to slim down the thickness of its devices. Yet if the Weibo leak is true, this will be the largest battery ever on an Apple handset: the iPhone 17 Pro Max’s is 5,088-mAh.

iPhone Fold release date

Apple has neither confirmed the iPhone Fold nor announced a proper release date. Analysts and rumors have predicted that the foldable could come out in 2026 or be pushed until next year.

As for timing, since the iPhone Air was released alongside the iPhone 17 models, the Fold could come alongside the iPhone 18 series. But since Apple released the iPhone 16E early this year, far before the September window for its main iPhone release, the company could do the same with the iPhone 17E in 2026. Apple could even delay the launch of the standard iPhone 18 to the spring of 2027 to make room for the iPhone Fold in Apple’s Sept. 2026 launch, according to an ET News report. Given that Samsung offsets its standard and foldable phone releases at Unpacked events months apart from each other, Apple could do the same.

What Apple’s new patent says about the iPhone Flip

After years of rumors that Apple was working on foldable phones, a patent was finally granted to the company, confirming that it has been working toward a folding iPhone. The 22-page patent (PDF), simply titled “Electronic Devices With Durable Folding Displays,” was filed in November 2021 and granted on July 16, 2024.

Sadly for folding iPhone hopefuls, the patent doesn’t offer much illumination of what an iPhone Flip might look like. Most of the pages show figures depicting cross-sections of potential displays that fold about a hinge but not the device they’re folding around. 

There are some tidbits deeper into the text of the patent that hint at potential design choices Apple might make, like a hinge that holds the display flat when unfolded but which would let the display “slightly fold about the bend axis when the electronic device is jolted during the drop event” — in other words, if dropped, the device would fold inward slightly so that it lands on its edges to protect the inner display. 

It’s important to note that all evidence shows Apple working on a foldable iPhone, but the patent broadly applies to folding displays in general — to wit, some figure schematics describe a device that “may be a cellular telephone, tablet computer, laptop computer, wristwatch device or other wearable device, a television, a stand-alone computer display or other monitor” or screens as far-ranging as on vehicles, in kiosks, in media players or other electronic equipment. 

The rest of the patent describes what an Apple device with a folding display may have and categorically lists things like batteries and wireless charging, Bluetooth and Wi-Fi connectivity, LED or LCD displays, microphones and capacitive sensors, haptics and so on. There’s explicit mention of a display folding 180 degrees, or fully flat, which follows most other foldables — presumably, Apple isn’t going to leapfrog the competition in following Samsung’s concept displays we saw at CES that unfold nearly 360 degrees. 

Two foldable iPhone Flips?

Foldable iPhone hopefuls will at least be encouraged that Apple seemingly continues to tinker with an iPhone Flip design. The company is said to be working on two sizes of folding iPhones: a book-style and a clamshell-style, according to an older report by The Information, although this may be contradicted by a newer report by the same site suggesting Apple had settled on the latter for a smaller device. This aligns with prior rumors hinting the iPhone Flip will be in the clamshell format similar to the Samsung Galaxy Z Flip series or Motorola Razr Ultra. 

It sounds like Apple’s been struggling to meet its high expectations: The company’s design team wants the iPhone Flip to be half as thin as current iPhone models and to have displays on the outside that are visible when the device is folded shut, according to the report.

Development on the iPhone Flip was halted around 2020, the older report noted, in order to focus on a new project, a folding iPad. This device would have an 8-inch display, around the size of the iPad Mini. The foldable tablet supposedly had less strict durability and thickness requirements, as it wouldn’t need to fit in pockets like an iPhone Flip. Apple was still working on ways to reduce the crease in the middle of the folding display and get the iPad to lie fully flat. 

Release date: The iPhone Flip could launch in 2027

The latest indications of an iPhone Flip release date came back in June, when analyst Kuo suggested production could kick off in 2026 with phones coming out that year. This follows Kuo’s earlier prediction in March that the company could release a crease-free foldable by the end of 2026. Furthermore, this would likely be a book-style foldable with a 7.8-inch internal display and 5.5-inch external screen, which is counter to other predictions anticipating a clamshell-style foldable. 

It’s possible that these timeline predictions apply to one or the other or, due to the vague nature of rumors, even both — that is, Apple could be working on both a book-style and clamshell style foldable, though it’s less clear if release date expectations would be interchangeable or if Apple would stagger their release.

It’s been an open secret for years that Apple is working toward a foldable iPhone. The company has been registering patents for foldable technologies for almost a decade, and while there’s no guarantee that one will come out even after all that research (remember AirPower?), there’s still been buzz and possible release dates floated for years — though still not one solid enough to get excited about. 

Early rumors pointed as far back as 2021 as a potential target date, but the year passed with no foldable iPhone in sight. A March 2021 report from longtime analyst Kuo (via MacRumors) suggested 2023 might be more realistic (though that year has come and gone). According to Kuo, Apple still needs to figure out technology and mass production issues before bringing a device like this to market, hence the wait. Speculation later in 2021 from Bloomberg’s Mark Gurman aligned with Kuo’s predictions: In his Power On Newsletter, Gurman said that the foldable iPhone may not arrive for another two to three years.

Since then, new rumors have pointed to an even later release. Reliable display analyst Ross Young said in February 2024 that the foldable iPhone had been pushed back to 2025, and Kuo reaffirmed his predicted release window in a tweet in April 2022.

“Apple may launch its first foldable product in 2025 at the earliest, which may be a foldable iPad or a hybrid of iPad and iPhone,” Kuo wrote in the tweet.

Another rumor, first noticed by MacRumors in February of 2024 by Weibo-based blogger Fixed Focus Digital, suggested that the foldable iPhone project is delayed for the foreseeable future. The problem? Apple, which is rumored to be using Samsung folding panels for its iPhone Flip’s display, was dissatisfied with the screens’ performance after they broke down a few days into testing.

That’s echoed by the most recent estimate by TrendForce market analysts, reported in 9to5Mac, which predicted that an Apple foldable might not be released until 2027 at the earliest. Why? Apple’s strict requirements for reliability and the phone display’s crease. But Kuo’s more recent March 2025 predictions explicitly noted a crease-free foldable display, suggesting Apple might have moved past this roadblock — if all these rumors are to be believed, of course.

Read more: Top Foldable Phones for 2025

Design: What will the foldable iPhone look like?

A 2021 report from Bloomberg indicated Apple already had a working prototype of a foldable iPhone display. While it wasn’t a working model, it was a step up from a patent — which, until then, was all we had seen. 

Apple seems to have taken out every patent under the sun when it comes to foldable displays, including an origami-style folding display, a flip-up display and even a wraparound display. We don’t know which one will make the final cut, but both Kuo and Bloomberg seem to agree that the current prototype is more of a traditional fold-out design.

Unlike Microsoft’s Surface Duo, which has hinges on the exterior, Apple’s would have one continuous display with a hidden hinge mechanism like the Galaxy Fold. 

Apple leaker Jon Prosser reported in early 2021 that the iPhone Flip will likely use a clamshell design and come in several “fun colors.” Between the bright pastels of the iPhone 15 and Plus and the sleeker deep blue of the iPhone 15 Pro and Pro Max, an array of fun colors for Apple’s first foldable device is definitely a possibility.

YouTuber ConceptsiPhone also gave us a glimpse into what the iPhone Flip could look with concept art of the foldable iPhone in the colors blue, red, gold and green.

In March 2025, analyst Kuo had some very specific but non-clamshell predictions: that Apple would release a book-style foldable with a 5.5-inch outer screen that unfolded to have a 7.8-inch internal screen, and be 4.5-4.8mm when unfolded but 9-9.5mm thick. It would have the same high-density battery cells as the “ultra-thin iPhone 17” and a hinge with stainless steel and titanium alloy (a favorite material of Apple’s iPhone 16 Pro and Pro Max as well as the Apple Watch Ultra 2). 

Per Kuo’s predictions, the foldable will have two rear cameras and a front-facing camera on both the external and internal displays. Most interestingly, Kuo also expects that Apple’s book-style foldable will see the return of Touch ID as a side button, as Face ID might be left out due to space constraints — presumably for the array of depth-of-field sensors and cameras needed for the tech. 

Roadblocks: What still stands in Apple’s way? 

Samsung and others have been testing the waters, but Apple has been learning from the pain points of their foldable devices and figuring out how they’d be used.

One of these pain points is the crease. A lot of the current cover materials, including the glass and plastic mix that Samsung uses for the Z Fold and Z Flip, show a visible crease when folded out to full screen. To avoid it, Apple would likely have to wait for Corning, Apple’s glass provider, to create some kind of bendable version of its Ceramic Shield screen. The company is already working on a bendable glass but hasn’t announced a launch date for it. 

Kuo tweeted in April 2022 that Apple was testing a foldable OLED screen. Korean tech news site The Elec also reported that Apple was working with LG to develop a foldable OLED panel. 

Cost: Foldable phones don’t come cheap

Price is another major problem for these types of devices. Although Samsung still has the most affordable folding phone with the clamshell Motorola Razr at $700, most others in the category are book-style foldables like the Galaxy Z Fold 7 and the Pixel 9 Pro Fold, which are around twice the price of most flagship phones. We wouldn’t expect a foldable iPhone to be cheaper than its rivals. Apple’s foldable needs to be in line with current foldable and nonfoldable models to be able to compete against other brands and entice iPhone users to ditch their single-screen devices and pay more for a foldable.

Analyst Kuo predicted that a book-style iPhone foldable coming in 2026 could be priced anywhere from $2,000 to $2,500 as it’s “expected to generate strong replacement demand-despite the premium price-provided quality meets expectations.”

A report last year found that half of American consumers are interested in buying a foldable phone, though Apple customers are slightly less willing to make the leap than Samsung or LG users. Perhaps the “Apple effect” will change those stats if and when a foldable iPhone ever becomes a reality.

Technologies

China’s super-rich fled Singapore. Now they want to come back

Wealthy Chinese are reconsidering Singapore as Beijing’s offshore wealth scrutiny and geopolitical risks make alternatives less attractive.

A year ago, wealthy Chinese families were souring on Singapore. Its rules felt onerous, its nightlife subdued. Other cities seemed easier or more exciting.

Now they want to come back.

Family-office advisers and wealth managers say they are seeing renewed interest in Singapore from affluent Chinese clients who had shifted their lives to other financial centers, as tightening scrutiny from Beijing and geopolitical turmoil make its stability look attractive again.

The reversal underscores how quickly the calculations of Asia’s wealthy can change.

Singapore emerged as a favored destination for wealthy mainland Chinese seeking to diversify their assets and gain distance from Beijing, particularly after Hong Kong’s 2019 protests and subsequent national security crackdown.

However, its appeal faded after a $3 billion money-laundering scandal in 2023 triggered tighter scrutiny of wealthy clients and family offices. Stricter compliance checks, lengthy bank onboarding and residency requirements pushed some Chinese families toward jurisdictions they viewed as easier or more appealing – such as Hong Kong, Dubai and Tokyo.

They’re now telling me I really want to come to Singapore to become a citizen.Ryan LinBayfront Law

But what once seemed restrictive is increasingly being viewed by some as a source of security.

“The very reason why they came to Singapore in the first place back then was because China’s policies impact Hong Kong much closer to them than in Singapore,” said Bayfront Law director Ryan Lin.

Lin, who advises wealthy Chinese clients on setting up family offices and securing residency in Singapore, said last year that he was increasingly helping clients move away from the city-state as tighter compliance and disclosure requirements eroded its appeal.

The shift comes as Beijing steps up scrutiny of wealth held outside mainland China. New rules affecting offshore trusts have rattled wealthy families because of requirements to disclose structures and potential tax liabilities, while tighter oversight has also extended to areas including insurance and offshore brokerage accounts. These rules can apply regardless of where a trust is located or where an individual physically lives.

“When it comes to the safety of their wealth, they probably now are considering Singapore very, very seriously for the long term,” he said, adding that they are more determined this time, with several asking about pathways to permanent residency and citizenship as they consider making Singapore a longer-term base.

Moving to Singapore does not automatically sever an individual’s obligations to China, said Carman Chan, founder of Hong Kong and Singapore-based family office Click Ventures, particularly without a change in citizenship or tax status.

Advisers say the renewed interest in Singapore is generally about creating physical, financial and political distance from the mainland while maintaining additional options.

Lin said recent restrictions affecting mainland investors’ access to offshore brokerages in Hong Kong had particularly unsettled some clients. “They find perhaps Hong Kong is really too close to China,” he said.

Manish Tibrewal, co-founder of family office Farro Capital, said his firm has seen a sharp pickup in inquiries from Chinese families considering to relocate to Singapore.

A spokesperson for Hong Kong’s Financial Services and the Treasury Bureau said that under the “one country, two systems” framework, “Hong Kong upholds the common law system, the free flow of capital, the free convertibility of its currency, a simple and low tax regime, and a regulatory framework aligned with international standards.”

Dubai reversal

Singapore is also benefiting from a different source of anxiety: the Middle East.

Several advisers, including Tibrewal and Lin, said Chinese families who shifted toward Dubai in recent years have reconsidered their plans amid conflict in the region.

Lin said some of his clients initially treated the conflict as a temporary shock. But as tensions persisted, families began taking more concrete steps to leave.

“My clients are afraid that Dubai may potentially be easy collateral damage.” Lin said. “Their sense of security will not be there. They will be frantic. At least mentally, they won’t feel very safe. Their mindset of managing money in Dubai has changed.”

Some have already returned while others are unwinding investments and financial arrangements before doing so, he said.

Japan’s barriers

Tokyo had become attractive to wealthy Chinese in recent years as a weak yen made everything from property to luxury goods cheaper. Its proximity to China and safety had also made it an obvious alternative to Singapore.

Yet language barriers, difficulties integrating into Japanese society and differences in business and social culture caused issues, advisers said.

Iris Xu, CEO of Jenga Business Consulting Group, a consultancy that works with wealthy families, cited one client who relocated to Japan but returned to Singapore after just eight months.

“After going to Japan, going to Dubai, going to Hong Kong, there remains the Singapore option,” Xu said.

Back to Singapore

The renewed interest also arrives as Singapore itself fine-tunes the rules governing its family-office industry.

The Monetary Authority of Singapore in July eased some conditions for single-family offices seeking tax incentives, with the changes taking effect Aug. 1. The revisions give offices greater flexibility on hiring and investment requirements even as authorities continue to strengthen checks on the sources of wealth entering the country.

“Wealth owners from a diverse range of countries choose Singapore for many reasons, including our high standards of regulation, strong rule of law, and a comprehensive ecosystem of wealth managers and professional service providers,” an MAS spokesperson told CNBC.

Advisers for the wealthy say Singapore’s advantage is increasingly the predictability that comes with its rules.

“Their priorities have changed,” Xu said. “Before, maybe they were looking for an opportunity. Now they are looking at safety.”

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Technologies

U.S.-Iran escalation shows Washington’s frustration with slow-moving sanctions

Renewed hostilities reopen the question of whether the conflict is grinding toward a settlement or further escalation.

The escalation in hostilities between the U.S. and Iran over the weekend shows the U.S. is running out of patience with the slower-moving sanctions approach, according to analysts.

U.S. forces destroyed two Iranian rocket launchers on Larak Island on Sunday, as the Islamic Republic prepared to fire mine-carrying rockets into the Strait of Hormuz, ending a month-long lull in direct fighting.

The strike was the first publicly acknowledged U.S. attack since late July. Iran responded within hours, firing eight missiles at the King Hussein and Al Azraq air bases in Jordan. Jordanian air defenses intercepted all eight, with no casualties, the government said.

Later Sunday, President Donald Trump threatened on social media to blow up Kharg Island, Iran’s main oil-export hub, to “smithereens.”

“Most of the war has been tactically focused rather than strategic from the outset,” said Ian Ralby, a maritime security expert and president of Auxilium Worldwide. “The question, therefore, is: why this, why now?”

The sanctions campaign may not be hurting Iran’s leadership fast enough for the U.S.’s liking, Ralby said. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told Reuters on Sunday that he expects new sanctions on Iran weekly, particularly targeting banks, and that Washington intends to cut Tehran-linked institutions out of the dollar system entirely.

“It may be that the financial pressure was not curtailing Iranian behavior to the level the U.S. anticipated,” Ralby said. Renewed Iranian military activity may also have threatened U.S. forces or interests in the region “at a sufficiently high level of gravity that the U.S. felt it necessary to strike Iranian territory once more.”

The U.S. strike is likely an attempt to break a deadlock rather than a shift in policy, Ralby added. “The status quo has become somewhat stagnant, and I’m sure the U.S. would like to see that change,” he said. But it is unlikely to alter “the continuation of the blockade, or the economic ‘warfare’ being used to try to pressure Iran.”

Potential escalation

Trump’s threat against Kharg Island is likely to remain rhetorical. The terminal has absorbed dozens of strikes since the war began, with its oil infrastructure deliberately spared.

“It is unlikely that the President of the United States will actually carry through on the threat to attack Kharg Island,” Ralby said, noting the island also holds a historic early church that Iran has worked to preserve.

An attack “would be a destruction of cultural heritage as well as destruction of critical oil infrastructure, which would likely cause catastrophic environmental harm,” he said. “Threatening it may seem appealing, but actually blowing it up should hold little appeal.”

Rather than confronting U.S. forces head-on, Iran is more likely to retaliate through proxies and pressure on shipping and energy flows.

“The key to this conflict from the outset has been asymmetry,” Ralby said. “The Iranians have demonstrated an ability to use limited actual force to inflict substantial, actual harm.”

For instance, the Houthis, who control a large part of Yemen and have held sway over the approaches to the Bab el-Mandeb for the better part of a decade, entered the war weeks ago in support of Iran.

With the Houthis restricting navigation through the Bab el-Mandeb, the U.S. and its allies in the region could face a situation where the two major maritime chokepoints used to export the majority of the Gulf’s petroleum products are “subject to manipulation by Iran and its partners,” said Michael Ratney, senior adviser at the Center for Strategic & International Studies.

“We always assume that the Houthis and Iran are part of the same kind of group, but they’re not,” said Claudio Galimberti, chief economist at Rystad Energy. “They have worked in the past quite independently.”

Somali piracy, dormant since 2013, has also returned as coalition navies concentrate on the Red Sea and Hormuz. At least five vessels are currently held, including a tanker seized off Al Mukalla on Aug. 20.

“Enhanced pressure on oil production, the energy market, and global shipping are likely to be the focal points for Iranian retaliation,” Ralby said.

The military campaign remains the dominant force in oil prices. Flows through the strait reached roughly 7 million barrels a day last week via the Omani corridor under U.S. Navy escort, according to Galimberti’s estimates, calling it “a very costly mechanism … but it’s working.”

The strike on Larak threatens to reverse that recovery, injecting fresh uncertainty into commercial shipping through the waterway. “The expectation is that the flows in the next couple of days probably will be lower, and therefore you should expect the price increase for sure,” Galimberti said.

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Technologies

CNBC Daily Open: Trump wants to floor it on economic growth as Warsh eyes the brakes

The Trump administration saw two embattled officials fending off criticism yesterday as the war in the Middle East flared up again.

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Hello, this is Hui Jie writing to you from Singapore. Welcome to another edition of CNBC’s Daily Open.

The Trump administration saw two embattled officials fending off criticism yesterday as the war in the Middle East flared up again, with U.S. President Donald Trump trying to lower pump prices and talk up growth.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent also defended the decision to increase bond purchases earlier last month, after investor Stanley Druckenmiller criticized the move.

If you were working late in Asia last night, you may not have caught any of this, simply because Microsoft Outlook and ChatGPT Work experienced outages. I know of more than a few office workers that were secretly grateful for that.

What you need to know today

U.S. President Donald Trump has unveiled a cunning plan to combat high pump prices for Americans, involving his claimed control over 65 billion barrels of oil reserves in Venezuela.

He will meet with U.S. refiners and fuel distributors, looking for ways to expand domestic refining capacity and bring down gasoline prices, according to a White House official.

Prices at U.S. pumps were at $4.08 per gallon on average nationwide Monday, according to AAA data, which is nearly 30% higher compared to the same time last year.

However, there is just one snag. Experts told CNBC that his deal with Venezuela will not lower gas prices anytime soon.

Venezuela’s oil infrastructure is in a state of disrepair, and it will require about $180 billion of investment till 2040 to return the country to peak production, according to Rystad Energy.

The South American nation is currently producing around 1.2 million barrels a day, down from a peak of 3.5 million bpd in the late 1990s.

Trump also has one eye on the Middle East, vowing to hit Iran “hard” after the Islamic Republic said it launched an attack on two U.S. bases in Jordan.

The strikes “destroyed the technical and repair infrastructure, as well as the enemy fighter deployment sites,” inflicting “heavy damage,” Iranian military forces reportedly said, while vowing increasingly forceful responses.

Growth and the Fed

Trump also continued his push for the Fed to lower interest rates, arguing that the U.S. could grow at rates of up to 20% (yes, that is not a typo), and adding such rapid growth should not prompt the central bank to raise interest rates.

“Success in growth does not cause inflation,” the U.S. president said. However, growth has never reached anywhere close to the levels Trump is saying, except for one Covid pandemic-related surge of 34.9% in 2020, which notably followed a 28% contraction in the previous quarter.

The most recent GDP numbers, however, are a far cry from the 20% annualized growth touted. Real GDP increased at a 1.5% annualized rate in the second quarter of 2026, down from 2.1% in the first quarter, according to the BEA’s latest estimate.

The president’s stance would then put him at odds with Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh, who is expected by markets to hike rates at the Fed’s meeting in September.

Odds for a move at the Sept. 15-16 meeting jumped to 66.1% on Monday, nearly double where they were before Warsh’s speech at Jackson Hole over the weekend, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch tool.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, meanwhile, defended the department’s decision to double the planned size of buybacks of longer-dated U.S. bonds.

Investor Stanley Druckenmiller, Bessent’s former mentor, argued that the policy amounted to “price management” rather than an attempt to improve market liquidity, and risked undermining the Treasury’s credibility.

Outlook and ChatGPT outages

But the most important news for office workers Monday stateside would be that they had a rare reprieve from some of their work, as Microsoft Outlook and OpenAI’s ChatGPT Work experienced outages.

Users reported problems with Outlook, while OpenAI said users may experience problems starting or continuing tasks in ChatGPT Work, temporarily disabling two of the modern office’s favorite methods of assigning more work.

Anyone who failed to send an email, and then failed to ask AI to write an excuse for not sending that email, finally could legitimately say “I couldn’t do it, honest!”

— Lim Hui Jie

And finally…

FTC sues Amazon, accusing the e-commerce giant of misleading advertisers

The Federal Trade Commission on Monday sued Amazon, alleging the e-commerce giant “secretly and systematically overcharged” advertisers on its platform by manipulating its pricing and auction systems.

The lawsuit, which was joined by 22 state attorneys general, argues that Amazon may have reaped more than $20 billion from advertisers by using “hidden surcharges” dating back to a change to its auction rules that took effect in 2019.

However, the company argues that its auction systems have saved advertisers $8 billion between 2021 and 2025, not cost them extra.

— Annie Palmer

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