Despite a year marked by tariff disruptions, economic turmoil and household affordability constraints, the mobile phone industry closed out 2025 with 1.9% year-over-year growth, according to the International Data Corporation. Premium phones (priced at roughly $800 and up) sold well, and Apple and Samsung had the highest year-over-year growth among phones shipped, according to IDC’s recent report. Combined, they accounted for 39% of phones sold globally all year, up from 37% in 2024.

But will that carry on in 2026? The industry faces challenges ahead, all from a shift in how people buy (or don’t buy) phones this year. The first challenge is the intensifying RAM shortage, which has already affected the home PC market and will likely make phones even pricier this year. 

«While 2025 was a positive year for smartphones, the industry is now facing a distinctly different outlook,» Ryan Reith, IDC group vice president for worldwide client devices, said in the report. «The memory shortage, which is widely considered an unprecedented supply chain disruption, will cause the market to decline in 2026, and the duration of the shortage will ultimately determine the extent of the market contraction.»

Tech giants will fare best, as they’ll be able to secure better supply rates and price points, Reith wrote, but the average phone price for the everyday consumer is likely to rise due to higher costs. 

When and where these price hikes occur are uncertain, but phone-makers may try to mitigate their impact on consumers, much as companies did with tariffs last year. 

Avi Greengart, president and lead analyst at Techsponential, predicts that price increases could again be masked or delayed to avoid a slowdown in consumer purchasing. Companies may also adjust by adapting phone specs. 

«You’ll see base phone models without quite as much storage as you might have gotten in the past, with higher prices being passed along on the larger storage options,» Greengart told CNET. «We may see companies choosing components with cost-cutting in mind, such as sticking with last year’s excellent display technology to save a few dollars instead of this year’s even-better panels.»

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At the super-premium level, especially with devices like foldables that can reach around $2,000 in price, phone-makers will likely have an easier time raising prices or accepting lower margins, Greengart said. But cheaper phones with even slimmer margins won’t be spared, as he expects entry-level and mid-tier handset prices to rise as well. 

It’s still early in the year, and very few phones have been announced, none of which have significantly hiked prices. With CES 2026 in the rearview, eyes are on the upcoming Mobile World Congress 2026 in late February to give us a sense of how our phones might get more expensive — and by how much.