Technologies
AI Became a Bogeyman to Gamers in 2025, but Developers Are Mixed on Its Potential
The spread of generative AI has become background radiation, pitting players against studios and leaving its role uncertain.
As the games industry has been riddled with layoffs and studio closures in recent years, another shadow emerged in 2025: generative AI, which made its way into the game development pipeline.Â
Last March, I attended the Game Developers Conference in San Francisco, California, dashing between the wings of the Moscone Center to hear how the games industry was incorporating generative AI. The technology could be applied to generate code, text or images, yet there was no seeming consensus on what it should be used for. From panels of cautiously optimistic executives to roundtables of freelance developers concerned with securing steady employment, the conference was flooded with a range of views on AI, despite the limited evidence of its use in game development.Â
By the end of 2025, the issue spiked, grabbing the attention of gamers everywhere, as developers open up about the ways they’ve used generative AI to make games — which, as far as we know, has still been minimal. On social media, numerous unfounded accusations have been made against games for using AI-generated art and text. The technology has become a bogeyman for gamers.Â
When actual proof of AI in a game is revealed, the consequences can be serious. After it came to light that AI-made placeholder assets were included in the launch of JRPG Clair Obscur: Expedition 33 (even though they were swiftly patched out), the Indie Game Awards rescinded two awards for the much-lauded game. And when Swen Vincke, founder and game director of Larian Studios (Baldur’s Gate 3), announced that generative AI was being used to create concept art and placeholder text for its next game, it sparked backlash, according to the video game news and reviews site IGN.Â
What’s changed? Awareness, certainly. Throughout the year, AI has been like background radiation, bumming out gamers in other aspects of their lives, spreading through software, exacerbating climate issues, increasing misinformation with falsified images and spiking PC RAM prices. It makes sense that gamers would be suspicious of the use of generative AI in the games they play, especially given its dubious training on datasets and art, often done without the consent of creators.
Lack of transparency is also sparking concern. Companies aren’t disclosing the amount, if any, of generative AI used. It’s common practice for studios to stay quiet during game development, sometimes releasing snippets of behind-the-scenes footage on social media or YouTube to build hype. But opacity only intensifies the furor among fans if news about the use of generative AI then becomes public. Besides, there isn’t an agreed-upon standard on where to use generative AI, how much is appropriate and whether game-makers are obliged to disclose when they’ve used it.
How gen AI’s promises pitted players against studiosÂ
GDC, an annual conference that has been running since 1988, has long been a hub for discussions and sessions on AI. In the past, you’d mostly hear about topics such as computer-controlled character behavior and the use of machine learning. Some of that remains, but much of AI’s presence at GDC has moved on to generative AI.Â
Despite the skepticism surrounding the technology, I’ve seen ideas for what it could offer players in the future. GDC 2024 was brimming with possibilities for generative AI in gaming, and GDC 2025 took it to the next level, demonstrating prototype technology to attendees. From the moment the doors opened at the Moscone Center, it was all about promoting the current and near-future applications of generative AI in both game production and tools for players.
Xbox executives Fatima Kardar and Sonali Yadav, corporate vice president of gaming AI at Microsoft and partner group product manager, respectively, gave an overview of their plans to use Microsoft’s Copilot, an AI-powered assistant, to support Xbox gamers during play. It felt much like a pitch for other smart assistants. They proposed ways it could guide new players or provide customized advice to more experienced players, offering the example of suggesting hero choices and post-death tips in Overwatch. (This Copilot on Xbox functionality launched in beta back in September.)Â
They also emphasized their responsibility to players when deploying the assistant. “We want to make sure that, as AI shows up in their experiences, those experiences add value and make the gaming more powerful an experience, yet keep games at the front and center of it,” Kardar said. “It needs to make sure gamers are having more fun.”
Accessory-maker Razer also showcased its own AI-powered in-game assistant at GDC. The abundance of gaming guides online, including those on YouTube, suggests that gamers would be receptive to such guidance, even if they might initially resist it. At this point, however, there haven’t been enough titles that incorporate in-game assistance to gauge player reaction.Â
Instead, the wider gaming community’s exposure to generative AI in games has been discovering, after release, that the technology was used but not divulged. For example, 11 Bit Studios, which developed the sci-fi base-builder The Alters, apologized in June for not disclosing its use of AI in development (players discovered AI-generated text prompts in the released version of the game).Â
Embark, the studio behind extraction shooter Arc Raiders, pushed back against accusations that it used generative AI, telling PCGamesN that machine learning handled movement for the game’s multilegged robots. On the game’s Steam page, the studio says AI was used in development, but doesn’t specify the nature of the AI used, unlike the disclosure for its previous game, The Finals, which used text-to-speech tools to generate audio.Â
In each instance, fans reacted sourly, with bitter condemnation that studios had deliberately misled them. Some developers owned up, like 11 Bit Studios apologizing for using generative AI to hastily translate text for international versions of the game in time for its launch (saying the plan was to swap in professional translations later). Other instances seem to have been oversights, as with Sandfall Interactive admitting that the AI-generated textures in Clair Obscur: Expedition 33 were accidentally left in but then removed days after its release.Â
While it’s unclear how broad this sentiment is among gamers, the loudest critics consider AI-generated game elements tantamount to poisoning their experience. Aftermath journalist Luke Plunkett appropriately titled his commentary: “I’m Getting Real Tired of Not Being Able to Trust That a Video Game Doesn’t Have AI Crap in It.”
Nowhere has that new norm of AI hostility been more evident than in the immediate aftermath of The Game Awards in December, when Larian, beloved creator of Baldur’s Gate 3, released a trailer for its next RPG, Divinity 3. The reveal was well received until studio head Vincke discussed his company’s use of AI in a follow-up interview with Bloomberg. Fan backlash prompted him to release a statement to IGN clarifying that no AI-generated content would be included in the final game, which is still years away from release. In a separate post on X, Vincke explained that Larian is using generative AI to explore visual ideas and compositions before the in-house artists create the actual concept art.
What generative AI promises game developers
Within the industry itself, developers see AI as a mixed bag.
Microsoft’s talk with Xbox executives Kardar and Yadav explored other ways AI could be built into Microsoft’s developer tools (like DirectX, Visual Studio, Azure AI Services and more) to help developers create games, whether by speeding up workflows or helping log bugs faster, as well as by offering AI chat-based support.Â
Razer also showcased another generative AI tool, designed for game development: a quality assurance assistant that automates aspects of bug tracking and filing. When a tester plays a build of a new game and stops the session because they noticed something awry, Razer’s tool can create an automatic report that logs when and where certain bugs were encountered. Razer says this automation can reduce QA time by 50%, though it stressed that the tech was intended to be an efficiency multiplier, not a job replacer.
The corporations also envision using generative AI to address issues, such as easing internal processes, automating mundane tasks, and parsing player and industry data for actionable insights. It’s an idea that was echoed in several talks throughout GDC, including one featuring developers from studios such as Raven Software, Sledgehammer Games, Treyarch and Activision Shanghai. The developers listed technical ways in which large language models helped them use multimodal searches to identify the right item among hundreds of thousands of assets in digital libraries, or spot and eliminate redundant tickets in task-tracking software like Jira.
Another panel of executives from several companies, including Xbox, Roblox, 2K, enterprise AI platform maker Databricks and game engine creator Unity, explored the downsides of prompting generative AI to produce code. 2K chief technical officer Nibedita Baral recounted a developer who seemingly reduced a three-day task down to minutes, though it then took three days to correct the issues in the AI-generated output. Optimizing models is challenging, especially in ensuring that the output is ethical.
“That’s on us to reduce the bias, to have diversity. A machine cannot do it, a tool cannot do it. Humans have to invest in that to figure out the balance,” Baral said.Â
AI’s threat to labor and art in the games industry
While GDC opened with optimistic corporate pitches and rather pedestrian uses for generative AI in game production, concerns about the human cost bubbled up through the rest of the week.
Anyone currently seeking employment is aware of the significant impact that generative AI has had on the job market. These days, AI services filter out many applicants before they even reach a human’s desk. With applicants using AI to build resumes that can survive automated filtering, the entire process is obscured. At a roundtable discussing how AI is impacting hiring new employees, games industry recruiters described using LLMs for an additional phone screening of applicants to cut down on time. Yet that also presents another AI barrier to prospective hires — one that can’t filter for culture fit the way humans can.Â
A few hundred feet away, contractors were hashing out survival strategies to weather one of the worst employment periods the industry has seen. Many developers employed by studios voiced concerns about how AI might replace their work, but it was low on the list of priorities for freelancers. They were more bedeviled by the ordinary evils that plague vulnerable workers, such as getting stiffed on client payments or being pressured into performing free labor through endless revisions.Â
In a conversation with Dr. Jakin Vela, executive director of the International Game Developers Association, we explored the challenges facing the games industry during what could be considered one of its cyclical troughs. Yet it appears that this post-expansion course correction has been particularly grueling. Even more than the rise of generative AI, what weighs on developers is profound economic uncertainty and geopolitical strain, alongside studios cutting jobs and the decline in efforts to hire inclusively.
IGDA’s membership has varying perspectives on the new technology. “Some people are excited for the possibility to incorporate generative AI in their workflows to support their processes, but we have others in our community, especially among artists, localization professionals, QA testers and writers who are rightfully terrified that generative AI will be used by studio leadership and executives to replace them to save costs,” Vela said.
One thing Vela conceded, and which was echoed during the conference, was that generative AI is here to stay. The question is how to ethically incorporate it and identify whether language models used by AI tools were trained on stolen data. Another question is how to use AI to augment developer workflows rather than replace them.
Former EA software engineer David “Rez” Graham hosted a panel on the ethics of using AI in game development. It came with a stern warning: that the increased use of gen AI in production also threatens the death of art. Since any output from the technology is derivative, not creative, normalizing its use in an artistic and experiential art form risks “losing the soul of the industry in the worst, extreme case.”
Graham noted that many artists and designers feel like nobody is listening to their concerns or taking them seriously. Generative AI represents a split in priorities between creatives (artists, designers, developers) and managers. While one could argue that AI tools with ethically sourced data have a place in empowering workers, Graham’s concern is that AI adoption will soon be mandated by individuals with solely financial motives who lack an understanding of artistic workflows.
“I think we’re sitting right now at a crossroads where we get to decide: Are we going to have the bad, dystopian ending, or are we going to have an ending where we can use these tools to uplift?” Graham said.
During GDC, games industry veterans fed up with layoffs and turmoil launched their own union, United Videogame Workers. The union aimed to unify developers across companies, with the ultimate goal of achieving a large enough membership to drive industry-wide change. The workers’ demands have included broad employment protections to resist rampant layoffs — over 25,000 employees lost their jobs over the last two years. And now, there are also concerns about AI technologies threatening those who remain employed.Â
Into 2026, the beat continues: AI is here to stay
For a tech reporter like myself, the rest of the year in gaming wasn’t that different. I got early looks at upcoming titles at Summer Game Fest and various previews. My colleagues and I tallied up the best games of the year and attended The Game Awards to cap off 2025.
But that background radiation was always there. Multiple news stories emerged alleging that games were being made with generative AI. Fans have become increasingly wary, and studios started to respond by posting public assurances that their games weren’t made with AI. After the Indie Game Awards revoked its award to Clair Obscur: Expedition 33 and granted it to the runner-up, Blue Prince, the gaming website The Escapist put out an alarmist article claiming the latter may have used AI.Â
The article, which has since been corrected, prompted its publisher Raw Fury to post on Bluesky that AI was not used in Blue Prince’s creation. The kerfuffle represents the tenuous state of gaming and suspicion by fans about how much digital automation went into making their favorite entertainment.Â
That isn’t to say that gamers should expect generative AI to play a role in every game going forward, especially since the technology is still in its early stages. I chatted with The Witness and Braid creator Jonathan Blow about his upcoming game, Order of the Sinking Star, which was revealed at The Game Awards. He recounted predictions that people wouldn’t even be programming anymore by the end of 2025 — which, he told me, is patently false.
“You could certainly get something on the screen a lot faster with AI than you could before, but you still have the task of evolving that into something that people actually want to play, and past a certain point, AI can’t take you there yet,” Blow said. “The thing it leaves you with is a total mess that programmers wouldn’t really want.”Â
Though he acknowledged others’ concerns that AI shouldn’t be used in gaming, Blow said he believed that if and when generative AI improves, it’ll help people expand their creativity. He also said he doesn’t expect it to threaten jobs.Â
As 2026 begins, gamers have a lot to look forward to, with blockbuster games like Grand Theft Auto 6, Resident Evil: Requiem, Tomb Raider: Legacy of Atlantis, 007: First Light, Control Resonant and more titles. But they’ll enter the year with a sense of uncertainty, no longer able to trust that their games are completely made by humans.
Technologies
AI is Changing How Lawyers Work â and Putting the Billable Hour Under Pressure
AI is reshaping the legal industry by reducing the time needed for routine tasks, challenging the traditional billable hour model, and changing how lawyers learn and practice.
Artificial intelligence is now used by almost 90% of legal professionals in the U.K. and Ireland, and itâs putting one of the professionâs oldest conventions â the billable hour â under the microscope. Thatâs according to legal software company Clioâs U.K. & Ireland Legal Insights Report 2026.
It found that among firms using AI, almost 80% said they can handle more work without increasing resources, while over 70% said it cut costs by absorbing administrative work once done by support staff.
As a result, AI is challenging some of the assumptions on which the legal profession was built, forcing firms to reevaluate how their lawyers spend their time, how they charge for it and how new lawyers learn the ropes. You canât charge 16 hours for something that takes 16 secondsNick Rowles-DaviesLexolent Some of the U.K.âs biggest firms are already putting this into practice.
A&O Shearman has worked with legal AI company Harvey to develop artificial intelligence agents for tasks, including reviewing loan agreements and analyzing regulatory filings, which it says can complete in minutes work that previously took several hours. Slaughter and May, meanwhile, has rolled out Harvey across all practice areas this year, including for regulatory research and document analysis.
Billable hour pressure The billable hour is central to the business model of many law firms, but when AI significantly reduces the time lawyers spend sifting through and drafting documents, the economics are no longer so straightforward. âYou canât charge 16 hours for something that takes 16 seconds,â Nick Rowles-Davies, founder and CEO of legal finance fund Lexolent, based in London and Dubai, told CNBC.
About one in five firms that have widely adopted AI report difficulty meeting billable-hour targets, according to Clioâs report. Globally, senior legal leaders expect the share of work charged by the hour to fall from 72% to 44% over the next two to three years, according to a Deloitte survey.
Routine work is the most exposed, Rowles-Davies said. âIf youâve got standard documents and youâre just putting in detail, then clearly thatâs an automatic process.â But complex legal work still requires human judgment, he added, particularly when interpreting AI output and determining the right strategy for a client.
Lawyers [are] telling us that their day is getting betterJoshua LenonClio
AI and workloads
Whether AI efficiencies ultimately make lawyersâ working lives better may depend on what firms do with the time they get back. Clioâs report found that 51% of legal professionals work evenings, but only 32% want to, while 22% work weekends compared with 11% who would choose to.
Joshua Lenon, Clioâs New York-based lawyer-in-residence, believes some lawyers are already seeing the benefits. âLawyers [are] telling us that their day is getting better,â Lenon told CNBC, as AI becomes more commonplace.
âPeople are really looking at these tools and saying, âThis is making work better.ââ
Technologies
Trump’s diesel agreement with Putin accused of contradicting Russia sanctions law
Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said in a searing statement that the U.S. easing sanctions on Moscow “plays into Russia’s hands.”
President Donald Trumpâs Friday announcement that Russia will supply diesel fuel to the global market marked an apparent pivot from recent efforts to pressure Moscow to end the Ukraine war by targeting Russian energy exports.
Trump claimed the move, unveiled with less than a month left in an affordability-focused midterm election, would swiftly bring down record-high diesel prices.
But commentators and critics were quick to highlight contradictions between the new policy and prior efforts by the U.S. to clamp down on Russian oil sales.
Those efforts most recently included the enactment of the Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act of 2026, empowering Trump to impose tariffs up to 100% on the top purchasers of Russian crude oil or gas, among other restrictions. Trump signed the bill into law just three weeks ago.
âCongress just passed a law giving Trump the power to impose new tariffs on major buyers of Russian oil & gas,â Scott Lincicome, vice president of the libertarian Cato Institute, said on X after Trumpâs Friday announcement.
âCan America tariff America?â he quipped.
Sen. Richard Blumenthal, D-Conn., a member of the Senate Ukraine Caucus, accused Trumpâs latest move of being âdirectly contrary to Congressâs intent in our bipartisan sanctions bill.â
Peter Harrell, visiting scholar at Georgetown University Law Centerâs Institute of International Economic Law, in an X post said that the relaxation of Russian diesel restrictions âpretty much proves the point that the Graham Russia Bill was not going to force the Trump Administration to increase economic pressure on Moscow.â
Some of the criticism crossed party lines.
âThrough the Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act, we gave the president significant authorities and leverage against China and Russia to bring Putinâs war to an end with a negotiated settlement,â Rep.
Michael McCaul, R-Texas, said in an X post. âUnfortunately, while I understand the desire to bring down diesel prices, I am concerned the lifting of sanctions on Russian oil will only fund the Kremlinâs war machineâemboldening more violence and destruction, as we have seen in recent days,â McCaul said.
The White House did not immediately respond to CNBCâs questions about the diesel agreement with Russia.
Less than a year earlier, the Trump administration slapped sanctions on multiple Russian oil companies in response to what it called âRussiaâs lack of serious commitment to a peace process to end the war in Ukraine.â
Trump also had previously slammed NATO allies for continuing to buy Russian oil. In a September 2025 Truth Social post, he wrote, âthe purchase of Russian Oil, by some, has been shocking! It greatly weakens your negotiating position, and bargaining power, over Russia.â
Later that month, Trump again harangued world leaders for doing business with Russia.
âTheyâre funding the war against themselves. Who the hell ever heard of that one?â he said in a speech at the United Nations General Assembly. âThey canât be doing what theyâre doing. Theyâre buying oil and gas from Russia while theyâre fighting Russia.â
Trump announced the diesel deal in a Truth Social post Friday afternoon after what he described as a âhighly successful discussionâ with Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Under the agreement, Russia will immediately supply more than 300,000 tons of diesel, then another 500,000 tons in November, followed by 1 million tons âimmediately thereafterâ and 3 million more depending on refinery conditions, Trump wrote.
The Treasury Department soon after said that Trump directed the Office of Foreign Assets Control to immediately issue a âtemporary general license to allow the supply of Russian diesel to the global market.â OFAC specified that the sanctioned transactions will be authorized for about six months, until April 7.
Russia seemed to celebrate the move. âRussia-US cooperation on diesel and energy will benefit the world,â an X account associated with Putinâs economic envoy Kirill Dmitriev said in response to the announcement.
But Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, whose military has started targeting Russian oil refineries, said in a searing statement that the U.S. easing sanctions on Moscow âplays into Russiaâs hands.â
âAny easing of sanctions against Russia without a clear and lasting de-escalation agreement with Russia is an obvious weakness,â Zelenskyy said. âAllowing Russia to sell petroleum products is an investment in a war that must be ended, not prolonged.â
âWe count on Americaâs fair support for our defense of life, for our defense of people in Ukraine â and on the United States having a correspondingly strong conversation with Russia,â he said.
âA strong one, not a weak one,â he added.
Trump thanked Putin later Friday afternoon for enabling âmassive amounts of oilâ to come to the U.S.
âWe need oil for the world, and this is diesel, which is what we need, so weâre very happy to get it,â Trump told reporters before heading to Syracuse, New York.
The Trump administration has previously eased some Russian energy sanctions temporarily, though more narrowly than Fridayâs announcement.
Earlier this year, in an attempt to stabilize markets after the start of the Iran war, the Trump administration issued limited, 30-day waivers allowing countries to buy sanctioned Russian oil that was already in transit.
But some interpreted the latest move as a more significant step.
âIt looks like Trump cut a deal with the devil,â Jeremy Siegel, professor emeritus of finance at the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania, told CNBCâs âClosing Bellâ Friday afternoon.
âItâs not a permanent solution at all. Itâs sort of a short-term Band Aid,â Siegel said. âAnd cutting back on or eliminating sanctions on Russia for the invasion in Ukraine, I think, is a very unfortunate consequence.â
Technologies
The world needs Ukraineâs grain. Its farmers are running out of reasons to plant
Cash-strapped farmers have no incentive to sow for 2027 with exports remaining trapped, as analysts say commodity markets could “flip fast.”
Ukraineâs harvest season is moving from wheat and barley into corn, soybeans and sunflower, and farmer Oleksandr Chumak has had a strong yield so far. That should be good news.
Instead, after 11 years of growing a range of crops in the Odesa region of southern Ukraine, Chumak has had enough.
Storage facilities across both Ukraine and Russia are filled with millions of tons of produce that would normally be sent to Europe, the Middle East, Asia and Africa â but are instead trapped in the warring countries.
Russian drone and missile hits on Black Sea targets intensified over the summer and into fall, making it impossible to insure commercial ships. Kyivâs retaliatory attacks mean Russian exports are now also stuck, further squeezing global supply.
And with fatal Black Sea attacks continuing into October, prospects of a ceasefire look slim, even as Turkey ramps up efforts to broker a deal due to the risk to global food security.
Chumak says that around 80% of his grain cannot currently be sold at a profit, and he is out of cash.
A collapse in domestic prices is giving farmers like him little reason to sow for the 2027 crop in the coming months.
âFor the farmers, itâs very difficult because we need to pay taxes, we need to pay rent for land, and now we are not able to do this because we are not able to sell anything,â said Andrii Dykun, chairman of the Ukrainian Agri Council.
âThe only crops we are able to sell are rapeseeds and sunflower seeds. But still, the volume is not enough… So why should we plant if today we have no profits at all?â
âIf our stocks will be full, it makes no sense to do any farm operations in the spring because then itâs just a waste of time and money.â
PrivatBank, Ukraineâs biggest lender, told CNBC that it had disbursed 1.53 billion hryvnia ($34.2 million) in working capital finance to agribusinesses between June and August, more than double the 718 million hryvnia lent in the same period last year. Small and medium-sized producers account for 70% of its agricultural loan book.
âFunds effectively remain tied up in grain inventories, while farms still need to cover their ongoing operating expenses and secure financing for the autumn and spring sowing campaigns,â said Yevhen Zaihraiev, chief corporate and SME business officer at state-owned PrivatBank.
âWe are seeing different strategies among our clients. Some agricultural producers are selling their crops sooner, even at less attractive prices, in order to maintain sufficient operating liquidity. Others, particularly those with access to storage capacity, are postponing sales in anticipation of more favorable market prices,â he said by email.
Ukrainian production of grains and oilseeds is forecast to increase to 85 million tonnes from 80 million tonnes this year, but carry-over stocks from the previous season are pressuring Ukraineâs storage infrastructure and logistics, Zaihraiev noted. Those facilities include long plastic silobags snaking across fields and towering metal grain elevators that are themselves increasingly vulnerable to military strikes.
âWe are also seeing agricultural producers gradually revise their planting plans for next year in favor of oilseeds and niche crops, whose prices are less dependent on logistics costs,â Zaihraiev added.
Farmer Oleksandr Chumak said he will follow that strategy, significantly scaling back planting for next year, avoiding corn and barley altogether, and instead opt for crops which require less fertilizer â which is also facing a global squeeze following amid the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran.
Meanwhile, for Ukrainian farmers â those not currently being drafted to serve â the war with Russia is ever-present. âWe are living and working in a place where any time you or your circle can be hit by [a] rocket or drone,â Chumak said by phone. âWe are sleeping in beds with explosions 300 to 1,000 metres around.â
Stock release would âflip the market fastâ
Ukraineâs agricultural sector has faced farm takeovers, mines and labor shortages ever since Russiaâs full-scale assault began in early 2022. International bodies have struggled to preserve its export routes through various agreements, including the collapsed Black Sea initiative and the European Unionâs politically contentious âSolidarity Lanes.â
Now, the situation inside the country and the consequences for global food chains are the most severe they have been since the war began.
Between them, Ukraine and Russia supplied the world with more than half of its sunflower oil, nearly a fifth of its barley and 14% of its wheat in the years leading up to the war, according to the UN. Ukraine is also one of the worldâs biggest growers of corn, with China and the European Union among its biggest buyers.
Around 90% of Ukraineâs main agricultural exports typically run via the Black Sea. In August this year, its grain and legume exports totalled 981,000 tonnes, down about 58% year on year.
The risk is heightened by weakness elsewhere. Europe is expected to have a particularly poor corn harvest and needs larger imports just as its demand for feed remains high. The United States is also facing a weaker corn crop.
For now, better wheat and barley crops in Canada, Australia and Argentina, along with good harvests in the Middle East and North Africa, are cushioning the blow.
The continued blockage is supporting commodity prices outside of Russia and Ukraine, but the reopening of Black Sea ports would unleash a wave of cheap supply that would âflip the market fast… with little warning,â said Benoit Fayaud, senior manager for grains and oilseeds analysis at Expana.
A deal which restores Ukrainian and Russian exports could see grains prices in other origins decrease by a few dozen dollars, he told CNBC. âThey have such big stocks it will be bearish for the market all over the world,â he added.
Prices for Russian and Ukrainian wheat, barley, oilseeds and other products have become so low within the countries that it has intensified the scramble to find alternative routes via rail, road and river, according to Fayaud.
But these alternative routes are âdifficult and slow from both countries,â he said.
Ukraineâs Eastern European neighbors such as Poland and Romania are resisting a push to allow grain to transit through them â even temporarily â due to concerns about a glut destroying demand for their own crops.
Another option via the Danube river has been hampered by low water levels; and a key bridge out of Ukraine has been damaged. There are options to export via the Baltic states and through Georgia by land into the Middle East and Central Asia, but this can only cover a small portion of typical flows, Fayaud said.
Andrii Dykun of the Ukrainian Agri Council stressed that there was no alternative to the Black Sea routes when it came to pricing.
âIt would always be cheaper for us, even for the farmers on the western border of Ukraine, to sell the grain to other ports from Black Sea ports because itâs much more profitable for the farmers than to sell it via the border to [the] EU,â he said.
âSo without Black Sea ports, it will not work for us at all.â
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