Technologies
What’s Coming to Disney World and Disneyland? New Rides, Lands and Attractions in 2026
How close are we to new Avengers rides, Avatar theming and Cars and Monsters lands? Here’s what to expect and when for Disneyland and Walt Disney World.
Disneyland had a huge 2025 with its 70th anniversary, and 2026 will see the original Disney theme park continue to celebrate the milestone — all this while building three new rides at California Adventure and a whole new Disneyland entrance and Avatar area.
Meanwhile, at Walt Disney World in Florida, four entirely new lands are being built right now, themed around villains, Pixar characters and more.
Disney isn’t slowing down its expansion plans, with four more cruise liners also on the way.
Here’s everything you need to know about Disneyland, Disney World and Disney Cruise Line and about what’s coming in 2026 and beyond.
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A Bluey show at Disneyland
Good news for fans (both parents and kids) of the hugely popular Australian TV series: Bluey is getting its own stage show at Disneyland. Debuting on March 22, 2026, Bluey’s Best Day Ever will be held at the Fantasyland Theatre.
Disney is describing the show as immersive, with the theater to be transformed into Bluey’s school classroom and grounds, including a gnome village and fairy garden. Bluey and her sister, Bingo, will appear live on stage several times each day, along with actors and musicians, to “bring to life the popular music and games emblematic of beloved Bluey episodes.” Those games will include Keepy Uppy and the Grannies, as well as appearances by Chattermax and Unicorse.
The Australian cartoon about a family of dogs is a worldwide hit, and Disney will release a Bluey movie in 2027. (In the meantime, you can watch Bluey episodes and minisodes on Disney Plus.) Disneyland will also be serving up Bluey-themed foods at Troubadour Tavern.
Soarin’ Across America from coast to coast
At both Disney’s California Adventure and Disney World’s Epcot, the Soarin’ Around the World attraction is getting a US-themed makeover. Soarin’ Across America will arrive on July 2, 2026, and will feature scenes, sounds and scents from more than a dozen cityscapes and scenic areas.
Disney released a trailer starring Patrick Warburton, the original Soarin’ narrator and pilot, where he says we’ll soon “sail across spacious skies” where we may see “amber waves of grain” and “purple mountain majesties.” It’s part of Disney’s celebration of the 250th anniversary of the United States of America.
Disneyland’s 70th anniversary continues
Disneyland is continuing to celebrate its 70th anniversary this year, following its kick-off in May 2025. You’ll have plenty of time to get there as its last day is Aug. 9, 2026 — after which it’ll transition back to Halloween on Aug. 21 and then the Holidays on Nov. 18 before fully returning to its natural state in early 2027.
While many of the 70th anniversary shows were paused for Halloween and the Holidays in 2025, they’ll be making a comeback soon: The Paint the Night parade will be back on Jan. 30, the Celebrate Happy Cavalcade returns on Jan. 9 and the Wondrous Journeys fireworks and projection show on the castle are coming back on Jan. 8. Mickey and friends will also be back in their 70th celebration outfits on Jan. 8.
You can catch 70th anniversary-themed merchandise, food and drink items as well as a projection show at Carthay Circle and a 50-foot sculpture of Sleeping Beauty Castle on the esplanade between Disneyland and California Adventure; you can also find decorations sprinkled throughout Downtown Disney, Main Street USA, Disney’s hotels and even inside the Toy Story Midway Mania ride.
Discounted Disneyland tickets and a new Magic Key
California residents can currently get a three-day Park Hopper ticket for $249, a 50% discount. You can visit between Jan. 1 and May 21, 2026, using this ticket.
A new Kids’ Summer Ticket is also being added, with a one-day Park Hopper ticket on sale for $50 per child, ages 3 through 9. You can purchase it from Jan. 21, 2026, and it can be used between May 22 and Sept. 7.
Disneyland is also adding (and removing) a Magic Key option: The Explore Key will replace the current Enchant Key. All California residents will be able to purchase it — not only Southern California residents. It will allow access on weekdays in June and July, which are currently blocked out for Enchant Key holders.Â
The Explore Key goes on sale Jan. 13, 2026, at 9 a.m. PT. It costs $999, with a $99 down payment and 0% APR on repayments for 12 months. Disney said its “full value” can be unlocked in just four visits to the parks, thanks to Park Hopper admission, 25% off parking and Lightning Lane Multi Passes and 10% off merchandise and dining.
One year closer to Villains Land
While it won’t be ready in time for 2026, construction is well underway for Disney’s first villains-themed area. Villains Land, which will celebrate all the classic baddies from Disney films, is coming to the Magic Kingdom at Disney World in Florida.
Imagineers have been drawing inspiration from architectural structures in Paris and Barcelona — like GaudĂ’s buildings in the latter city — to design Villains Land, Disney revealed during Destination D23 in August 2025.
“Paris is a city full of classic Art Nouveau … natural motifs and swirling designs there make nature appear to be ‘cursed,’ like magic has frozen it into place,” Disney said on its Parks Blog. “Barcelona’s art style is Modernisme, which has less natural patterns but gives the architecture an otherworldly, unnerving appearance.”
Villains Land, first teased during D23 2022, will be positioned on the other side of Big Thunder Mountain at the top left edge of the current Magic Kingdom map and will stretch around to where the Haunted Mansion is.
Two major attractions are planned, along with dining and shopping. Still no word yet on when it’ll open.
Tropical Americas Land construction: Dinosaur ride prepares to close
Animal Kingdom’s DinoLand USA area is continuing to shut down in phases as Disney slowly builds out the new Tropical Americas Land. While construction began in the fall of 2024 and TriceraTop Spin and the midway area closed down almost a year ago on Jan. 13, 2025, the Dinosaur ride remains open until Feb. 1, 2026. Then it’ll be transformed into a new Indiana Jones ride through a Maya temple (a relatively easy overlay, since Disneyland’s Indiana Jones reportedly follows almost exactly the same ride track as Disney World’s Dinosaur).
The Pueblo Esperanza area will be themed like a South American village, with an Encanto-themed attraction, where you get to explore Antonio’s rainforest room inside the Casita, as well as a huge quick-service dining location, a fountain and a carousel.
Tropical Americas is planned to open in 2027.
Take a peek at Piston Peak
The Rivers of America and Tom Sawyer Island at Disney World’s Magic Kingdom have been closed down and removed from the online map completely as Disney works to construct a new land themed after Pixar’s Cars movies. Cars Land, which was added to Disney’s California Adventure back in 2012, remains extremely popular in the west, so it was only a matter of time before it was added to the eastern outpost.
In an expansion of Frontierland — which also includes Tiana’s Bayou Adventure and Big Thunder Mountain Railroad — Route 66 will include a look inspired by the Rocky Mountain area and the “American Frontier and its national parks.”
The Disney Parks Blog described the new area as “an awe-inspiring wilderness filled with towering trees, snowcapped mountains, breathtaking waterfalls, roaring rivers and impressive geysers.” Disney Imagineers are “using a style of architecture called ‘Parkitecture,’ which was developed by the National Park Service to create structures that harmonize with the natural environment.”
There will be two attractions, one of which is a rally race. Pixar Chief Creative Officer Pete Docter and Imagineer Michael Hundgen spoke about the new ride vehicle for this, and you can see a TikTok of Imagineers testing out off-road vehicles in the Arizona desert to create what the ride will feel like. Each rally car will have its own personality, name and racing number, Docter said.
“These are all things Lightning McQueen and Mater haven’t experienced before, like racing over rocky terrain, ascending to mountain peaks and dodging around geysers — how do you take these real-world elements and put a Cars spin on it?” Disney Parks said in a previous blog post.Â
While construction has begun and Disney has even released a map showing what the land may look like (geysers shooting water, a running river, an off-road rally track, mountains, a visitor’s lodge, a Ranger HQ and walking trails), we don’t expect Piston Peak to open until at least 2027 or 2028.
Disneyland’s yearslong expansion begins as Avatar 2 area is built
Disneyland will finally kick off its expansion soon after unveiling plans almost five years ago. It’s expected to take a couple of years to complete and will push the current boundaries of the parks past Downtown Disney and into the nearby parking lots. It’ll also transform “a portion of the current Hollywood Backlot area,” which will result in the Monsters Inc. attraction closing permanently in early 2026.
The biggest part of the expansion will be adding an Avatar-themed land, based on the second film, The Way of Water, as well as Avatar: Fire and Ash. It will include a dark boat ride much like Pirates of the Caribbean, “taking guests all the way to the wide-open seas of Pandora.”
It follows the success of the world of Pandora, based on the original Avatar film, in Disney World’s Animal Kingdom. Disney has no dates or details yet on when it’ll be complete.
Coming sooner than the Avatar land, however, is a new esplanade entry “experience” to replace the current walkway entry at the east side of Disneyland as well as a new parking structure and pedestrian bridge over Harbor Boulevard. Construction on this begins in the fall.
Coco ride construction begins
It won’t be launching this year, but construction is beginning backstage at California Adventure to build a new dark ride. It’ll be themed for the beloved Pixar movie Coco and populated by audio-animatronics.
The Coco ride will be located in the area near Pixar Pier and Paradise Gardens, in what is primarily backstage areas for cast members currently. It’ll have characters and music from the movies as you travel through the land of the dead with Miguel.
Monsters Inc. Land building continues; Rock ‘n’ Roller Coaster Starring The Muppets coming soon
While the Monsters, Inc. ride is being removed from California Adventure, its animatronics and props will hopefully be repurposed in Disney World as an entire land themed around the Pixar movies is being built at Hollywood Studios.
Replacing the Muppets area of the theme park, Monstropolis — home of the Monsters, Inc. movies, shorts and Disney Plus streaming series —Â will feature Disney’s first-ever suspended roller coaster inside the city’s laugh/scream factory.
“The first time I saw Monsters, Inc., all I wanted to do was ride on one of those doors like Mike and Sulley,” Disney Experiences Chair Josh D’Amaro said at D23 in 2024. “Remember in the movie how those claws grab the doors and hoist them up into the air to take them away? We’re doing that too. And you’re going along for the ride.”
A TikTok shows the design concept for the Monsters Inc. ride.
MuppetVision 3D closed permanently on June 8, 2025, but we don’t expect Monstropolis to be complete for another year or two.
On the bright side, the Muppets are being moved to the Rock ‘n’ Roller Coaster, and that overlay apparently won’t take long. Rock ‘n’ Roller Coaster Starring Aerosmith will have its last day of operation on March 1, and the Muppets-themed version will open in summer.
“Thanks to new management under legendary Muppets tycoon and owner of The Muppet Theatre, J. P. Grosse, groovy vibes will take over the Rock ‘n’ Roller Coaster Courtyard including a new psychedelic wrap on the giant guitar marquee,” Disney said in August 2025.
Avengers rides in California Adventure
Avengers Campus already has two rides: Spider-Man Web Slingers and Guardians of the Galaxy. Soon, this will double as Disney builds two more Marvel attractions at California Adventure.Â
Avengers Infinity Defense will see you assemble alongside the Avengers, battling King Thanos — set in a multiverse — featuring appearances by Black Panther, Ant-Man and Hulk.
Stark Flight Lab, the second ride, will see you help test Tony Stark’s latest tech.
“In Stark Flight Lab, guests will sit in ‘gyro-kinetic pods’ and roll along a track before stopping in front of a giant robot arm,” Disney said. “This robot arm will hoist you into the air where you’ll make several high-speed maneuvers inspired by Iron Man and some other Avengers.”
Construction began in 2025, but no launch dates have been revealed yet.
More Disney Cruise Line ships
Disney has been all in on launching cruise ships over the last few years, including the Disney Wish in 2022, the Disney Treasure in 2024 and the Disney Destiny in 2025.
The Disney Adventure is next up in 2026, part of the next four ships embarking soon. The other ship names and destinations have yet to be revealed, but they’ll set sail between 2027 and 2031.
Everything else
Here’s what else is new and coming soon to the theme parks:
- Animal Kingdom replaced the long-running show It’s Tough to Be a Bug inside the Tree of Life with a Zootopia-themed show. Zootopia: Better Zoogether features Judy Hopps, Nick Wilde and new character Heidi Howler and will take you through several different areas of the city as they celebrate a holiday. It recently opened in November, so you can experience it throughout 2026.
- Cinderella Castle at Magic Kingdom will be repainted in its original theme colors: gray, cream, blue and gold. Painting reportedly begins in January 2026, with the moat to be drained.
- A 3D-printed prop canoe will be added to the Jungle Cruise ride in early 2026.
- Disneyland and Hollywood Studios are adding Mandalorian and Grogu missions to the Millennium Falcon: Smuggler’s Run ride in Star Wars: Galaxy’s Edge, tying in with the release of The Mandalorian and Grogu in cinemas. The new missions will debut on May 22, 2026.
- Buzz Lightyear’s Space Ranger Spin, which closed at the Magic Kingdom in August, will get new ride vehicles with video monitors and two handheld blasters with always-on lasers that come in two different colors (so you can see which laser is yours). It’s also getting a new scene at the start, starring Buddy the friendly robot, and static Z targets will now light up when you hit them. The ride reopens in spring 2026.
- Big Thunder Mountain Railroad will reopen in spring 2026 at Magic Kingdom after a long refurbishment. It will include “a journey through the spectacular natural phenomena of the Rainbow Caverns.”
- Following the release of the Walt Disney animatronic at Disneyland, Disney announced that a similar animatronic will be added to Disney World’s Carousel of Progress at Magic Kingdom in a new introductory scene to the ride.
Technologies
AI is Changing How Lawyers Work â and Putting the Billable Hour Under Pressure
AI is reshaping the legal industry by reducing the time needed for routine tasks, challenging the traditional billable hour model, and changing how lawyers learn and practice.
Artificial intelligence is now used by almost 90% of legal professionals in the U.K. and Ireland, and itâs putting one of the professionâs oldest conventions â the billable hour â under the microscope. Thatâs according to legal software company Clioâs U.K. & Ireland Legal Insights Report 2026.
It found that among firms using AI, almost 80% said they can handle more work without increasing resources, while over 70% said it cut costs by absorbing administrative work once done by support staff.
As a result, AI is challenging some of the assumptions on which the legal profession was built, forcing firms to reevaluate how their lawyers spend their time, how they charge for it and how new lawyers learn the ropes. You canât charge 16 hours for something that takes 16 secondsNick Rowles-DaviesLexolent Some of the U.K.âs biggest firms are already putting this into practice.
A&O Shearman has worked with legal AI company Harvey to develop artificial intelligence agents for tasks, including reviewing loan agreements and analyzing regulatory filings, which it says can complete in minutes work that previously took several hours. Slaughter and May, meanwhile, has rolled out Harvey across all practice areas this year, including for regulatory research and document analysis.
Billable hour pressure The billable hour is central to the business model of many law firms, but when AI significantly reduces the time lawyers spend sifting through and drafting documents, the economics are no longer so straightforward. âYou canât charge 16 hours for something that takes 16 seconds,â Nick Rowles-Davies, founder and CEO of legal finance fund Lexolent, based in London and Dubai, told CNBC.
About one in five firms that have widely adopted AI report difficulty meeting billable-hour targets, according to Clioâs report. Globally, senior legal leaders expect the share of work charged by the hour to fall from 72% to 44% over the next two to three years, according to a Deloitte survey.
Routine work is the most exposed, Rowles-Davies said. âIf youâve got standard documents and youâre just putting in detail, then clearly thatâs an automatic process.â But complex legal work still requires human judgment, he added, particularly when interpreting AI output and determining the right strategy for a client.
Lawyers [are] telling us that their day is getting betterJoshua LenonClio
AI and workloads
Whether AI efficiencies ultimately make lawyersâ working lives better may depend on what firms do with the time they get back. Clioâs report found that 51% of legal professionals work evenings, but only 32% want to, while 22% work weekends compared with 11% who would choose to.
Joshua Lenon, Clioâs New York-based lawyer-in-residence, believes some lawyers are already seeing the benefits. âLawyers [are] telling us that their day is getting better,â Lenon told CNBC, as AI becomes more commonplace.
âPeople are really looking at these tools and saying, âThis is making work better.ââ
Technologies
Trump’s diesel agreement with Putin accused of contradicting Russia sanctions law
Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said in a searing statement that the U.S. easing sanctions on Moscow “plays into Russia’s hands.”
President Donald Trumpâs Friday announcement that Russia will supply diesel fuel to the global market marked an apparent pivot from recent efforts to pressure Moscow to end the Ukraine war by targeting Russian energy exports.
Trump claimed the move, unveiled with less than a month left in an affordability-focused midterm election, would swiftly bring down record-high diesel prices.
But commentators and critics were quick to highlight contradictions between the new policy and prior efforts by the U.S. to clamp down on Russian oil sales.
Those efforts most recently included the enactment of the Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act of 2026, empowering Trump to impose tariffs up to 100% on the top purchasers of Russian crude oil or gas, among other restrictions. Trump signed the bill into law just three weeks ago.
âCongress just passed a law giving Trump the power to impose new tariffs on major buyers of Russian oil & gas,â Scott Lincicome, vice president of the libertarian Cato Institute, said on X after Trumpâs Friday announcement.
âCan America tariff America?â he quipped.
Sen. Richard Blumenthal, D-Conn., a member of the Senate Ukraine Caucus, accused Trumpâs latest move of being âdirectly contrary to Congressâs intent in our bipartisan sanctions bill.â
Peter Harrell, visiting scholar at Georgetown University Law Centerâs Institute of International Economic Law, in an X post said that the relaxation of Russian diesel restrictions âpretty much proves the point that the Graham Russia Bill was not going to force the Trump Administration to increase economic pressure on Moscow.â
Some of the criticism crossed party lines.
âThrough the Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act, we gave the president significant authorities and leverage against China and Russia to bring Putinâs war to an end with a negotiated settlement,â Rep.
Michael McCaul, R-Texas, said in an X post. âUnfortunately, while I understand the desire to bring down diesel prices, I am concerned the lifting of sanctions on Russian oil will only fund the Kremlinâs war machineâemboldening more violence and destruction, as we have seen in recent days,â McCaul said.
The White House did not immediately respond to CNBCâs questions about the diesel agreement with Russia.
Less than a year earlier, the Trump administration slapped sanctions on multiple Russian oil companies in response to what it called âRussiaâs lack of serious commitment to a peace process to end the war in Ukraine.â
Trump also had previously slammed NATO allies for continuing to buy Russian oil. In a September 2025 Truth Social post, he wrote, âthe purchase of Russian Oil, by some, has been shocking! It greatly weakens your negotiating position, and bargaining power, over Russia.â
Later that month, Trump again harangued world leaders for doing business with Russia.
âTheyâre funding the war against themselves. Who the hell ever heard of that one?â he said in a speech at the United Nations General Assembly. âThey canât be doing what theyâre doing. Theyâre buying oil and gas from Russia while theyâre fighting Russia.â
Trump announced the diesel deal in a Truth Social post Friday afternoon after what he described as a âhighly successful discussionâ with Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Under the agreement, Russia will immediately supply more than 300,000 tons of diesel, then another 500,000 tons in November, followed by 1 million tons âimmediately thereafterâ and 3 million more depending on refinery conditions, Trump wrote.
The Treasury Department soon after said that Trump directed the Office of Foreign Assets Control to immediately issue a âtemporary general license to allow the supply of Russian diesel to the global market.â OFAC specified that the sanctioned transactions will be authorized for about six months, until April 7.
Russia seemed to celebrate the move. âRussia-US cooperation on diesel and energy will benefit the world,â an X account associated with Putinâs economic envoy Kirill Dmitriev said in response to the announcement.
But Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, whose military has started targeting Russian oil refineries, said in a searing statement that the U.S. easing sanctions on Moscow âplays into Russiaâs hands.â
âAny easing of sanctions against Russia without a clear and lasting de-escalation agreement with Russia is an obvious weakness,â Zelenskyy said. âAllowing Russia to sell petroleum products is an investment in a war that must be ended, not prolonged.â
âWe count on Americaâs fair support for our defense of life, for our defense of people in Ukraine â and on the United States having a correspondingly strong conversation with Russia,â he said.
âA strong one, not a weak one,â he added.
Trump thanked Putin later Friday afternoon for enabling âmassive amounts of oilâ to come to the U.S.
âWe need oil for the world, and this is diesel, which is what we need, so weâre very happy to get it,â Trump told reporters before heading to Syracuse, New York.
The Trump administration has previously eased some Russian energy sanctions temporarily, though more narrowly than Fridayâs announcement.
Earlier this year, in an attempt to stabilize markets after the start of the Iran war, the Trump administration issued limited, 30-day waivers allowing countries to buy sanctioned Russian oil that was already in transit.
But some interpreted the latest move as a more significant step.
âIt looks like Trump cut a deal with the devil,â Jeremy Siegel, professor emeritus of finance at the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania, told CNBCâs âClosing Bellâ Friday afternoon.
âItâs not a permanent solution at all. Itâs sort of a short-term Band Aid,â Siegel said. âAnd cutting back on or eliminating sanctions on Russia for the invasion in Ukraine, I think, is a very unfortunate consequence.â
Technologies
The world needs Ukraineâs grain. Its farmers are running out of reasons to plant
Cash-strapped farmers have no incentive to sow for 2027 with exports remaining trapped, as analysts say commodity markets could “flip fast.”
Ukraineâs harvest season is moving from wheat and barley into corn, soybeans and sunflower, and farmer Oleksandr Chumak has had a strong yield so far. That should be good news.
Instead, after 11 years of growing a range of crops in the Odesa region of southern Ukraine, Chumak has had enough.
Storage facilities across both Ukraine and Russia are filled with millions of tons of produce that would normally be sent to Europe, the Middle East, Asia and Africa â but are instead trapped in the warring countries.
Russian drone and missile hits on Black Sea targets intensified over the summer and into fall, making it impossible to insure commercial ships. Kyivâs retaliatory attacks mean Russian exports are now also stuck, further squeezing global supply.
And with fatal Black Sea attacks continuing into October, prospects of a ceasefire look slim, even as Turkey ramps up efforts to broker a deal due to the risk to global food security.
Chumak says that around 80% of his grain cannot currently be sold at a profit, and he is out of cash.
A collapse in domestic prices is giving farmers like him little reason to sow for the 2027 crop in the coming months.
âFor the farmers, itâs very difficult because we need to pay taxes, we need to pay rent for land, and now we are not able to do this because we are not able to sell anything,â said Andrii Dykun, chairman of the Ukrainian Agri Council.
âThe only crops we are able to sell are rapeseeds and sunflower seeds. But still, the volume is not enough… So why should we plant if today we have no profits at all?â
âIf our stocks will be full, it makes no sense to do any farm operations in the spring because then itâs just a waste of time and money.â
PrivatBank, Ukraineâs biggest lender, told CNBC that it had disbursed 1.53 billion hryvnia ($34.2 million) in working capital finance to agribusinesses between June and August, more than double the 718 million hryvnia lent in the same period last year. Small and medium-sized producers account for 70% of its agricultural loan book.
âFunds effectively remain tied up in grain inventories, while farms still need to cover their ongoing operating expenses and secure financing for the autumn and spring sowing campaigns,â said Yevhen Zaihraiev, chief corporate and SME business officer at state-owned PrivatBank.
âWe are seeing different strategies among our clients. Some agricultural producers are selling their crops sooner, even at less attractive prices, in order to maintain sufficient operating liquidity. Others, particularly those with access to storage capacity, are postponing sales in anticipation of more favorable market prices,â he said by email.
Ukrainian production of grains and oilseeds is forecast to increase to 85 million tonnes from 80 million tonnes this year, but carry-over stocks from the previous season are pressuring Ukraineâs storage infrastructure and logistics, Zaihraiev noted. Those facilities include long plastic silobags snaking across fields and towering metal grain elevators that are themselves increasingly vulnerable to military strikes.
âWe are also seeing agricultural producers gradually revise their planting plans for next year in favor of oilseeds and niche crops, whose prices are less dependent on logistics costs,â Zaihraiev added.
Farmer Oleksandr Chumak said he will follow that strategy, significantly scaling back planting for next year, avoiding corn and barley altogether, and instead opt for crops which require less fertilizer â which is also facing a global squeeze following amid the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran.
Meanwhile, for Ukrainian farmers â those not currently being drafted to serve â the war with Russia is ever-present. âWe are living and working in a place where any time you or your circle can be hit by [a] rocket or drone,â Chumak said by phone. âWe are sleeping in beds with explosions 300 to 1,000 metres around.â
Stock release would âflip the market fastâ
Ukraineâs agricultural sector has faced farm takeovers, mines and labor shortages ever since Russiaâs full-scale assault began in early 2022. International bodies have struggled to preserve its export routes through various agreements, including the collapsed Black Sea initiative and the European Unionâs politically contentious âSolidarity Lanes.â
Now, the situation inside the country and the consequences for global food chains are the most severe they have been since the war began.
Between them, Ukraine and Russia supplied the world with more than half of its sunflower oil, nearly a fifth of its barley and 14% of its wheat in the years leading up to the war, according to the UN. Ukraine is also one of the worldâs biggest growers of corn, with China and the European Union among its biggest buyers.
Around 90% of Ukraineâs main agricultural exports typically run via the Black Sea. In August this year, its grain and legume exports totalled 981,000 tonnes, down about 58% year on year.
The risk is heightened by weakness elsewhere. Europe is expected to have a particularly poor corn harvest and needs larger imports just as its demand for feed remains high. The United States is also facing a weaker corn crop.
For now, better wheat and barley crops in Canada, Australia and Argentina, along with good harvests in the Middle East and North Africa, are cushioning the blow.
The continued blockage is supporting commodity prices outside of Russia and Ukraine, but the reopening of Black Sea ports would unleash a wave of cheap supply that would âflip the market fast… with little warning,â said Benoit Fayaud, senior manager for grains and oilseeds analysis at Expana.
A deal which restores Ukrainian and Russian exports could see grains prices in other origins decrease by a few dozen dollars, he told CNBC. âThey have such big stocks it will be bearish for the market all over the world,â he added.
Prices for Russian and Ukrainian wheat, barley, oilseeds and other products have become so low within the countries that it has intensified the scramble to find alternative routes via rail, road and river, according to Fayaud.
But these alternative routes are âdifficult and slow from both countries,â he said.
Ukraineâs Eastern European neighbors such as Poland and Romania are resisting a push to allow grain to transit through them â even temporarily â due to concerns about a glut destroying demand for their own crops.
Another option via the Danube river has been hampered by low water levels; and a key bridge out of Ukraine has been damaged. There are options to export via the Baltic states and through Georgia by land into the Middle East and Central Asia, but this can only cover a small portion of typical flows, Fayaud said.
Andrii Dykun of the Ukrainian Agri Council stressed that there was no alternative to the Black Sea routes when it came to pricing.
âIt would always be cheaper for us, even for the farmers on the western border of Ukraine, to sell the grain to other ports from Black Sea ports because itâs much more profitable for the farmers than to sell it via the border to [the] EU,â he said.
âSo without Black Sea ports, it will not work for us at all.â
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