Technologies

Fed Rate Cuts Unlikely This Summer. Are Lower Mortgage Rates Still Possible?

The Fed’s impact on mortgage rates isn’t direct, but it matters. Here’s what to know about the central bank’s latest decision.

There’s a wild amount of uncertainty in today’s economy, but one thing is clear: The Federal Reserve isn’t planning to lower interest rates this summer. Mortgage rates, which have been stuck near 7% for the past several months, are likely to stay higher for longer.

On June 18, Fed officials voted to leave borrowing rates unchanged for a fourth consecutive meeting. Holding interest rates where they are allows the central bank to evaluate how President Trump’s unpredictable tariff campaign, immigration policies and federal cutbacks affect both inflation and the job market.

Often, what the central bank simply says about future plans can cause a stir in the housing market. Mortgage rates are driven by bond investors and a host of other factors, i.e., not directly determined by the Fed.

«The mortgage market reacts fast to uncertainty, and we’ve got no shortage of it this summer,» said Nicole Rueth, of the Rueth Team with Movement Mortgage.

Why is the Fed not cutting interest rates?

The Fed sets and oversees US monetary policy under a dual mandate to maintain price stability and maximum employment. It does this largely by adjusting the federal funds rate, the rate at which banks borrow and lend their money.

When economic growth is weak and unemployment is high, the Fed lowers interest rates to encourage spending and propel growth. Reducing interest rates could also allow inflation to surge, which is generally bad for mortgage rates.

Keeping rates high, however, increases the risk of a job-loss recession that would cause widespread financial hardship. If unemployment spikes — a real possibility given rising jobless claims — the Fed could be forced to implement interest rate cuts earlier than anticipated.

«The Federal Reserve is in one of the trickiest spots in recent economic history,» said Ali Wolf, Zonda and NewHomeSource chief economist.

What is the forecast for interest rate cuts in 2025?

On Wednesday, markets eyed the Fed’s Summary of Economic Projections, which outlined two 0.25% rate cuts in 2025, unchanged from earlier estimates. But that’s far from guaranteed. The updated forecast suggests that tariffs will push prices higher, suggesting that consumers have not yet felt the full effect of these import duties.

«Everyone that I know is forecasting a meaningful increase in inflation in the coming months from tariffs, because someone has to pay for the tariffs,» Fed Chair Jerome Powell said during a June 18 press conference.

Inflation could prompt the central bank to forgo one (or both) of its projected rate cuts, which would keep mortgage rates high.

Though Powell remains noncommittal on any specific time frame, financial markets still see a potential interest rate cut coming as early as this fall.

Most housing market forecasts, which already factor in at least two 0.25% Fed cuts, call for 30-year mortgage rates to stay above 6.5% throughout 2025.

«Average rates are likely to stay in the 6.75% to 7.25% range unless the Fed signals multiple cuts and backs up their policy with data,» Rueth said.

What factors affect mortgage rates?

Mortgage rates move around for many of the same reasons home prices do: supply, demand, inflation and even the employment rate.

Personal factors, such as a homebuyer’s credit score, down payment and home loan amount, also determine one’s individual mortgage rate. Different loan types and terms also have varying interest rates.

Policy changes: When the Fed adjusts the federal funds rate, it affects many aspects of the economy, including mortgage rates. The federal funds rate affects how much it costs banks to borrow money, which in turn affects what banks charge consumers to make a profit.

Inflation: Generally, when inflation is high, mortgage rates tend to be high. Because inflation chips away at purchasing power, lenders set higher interest rates on loans to make up for that loss and ensure a profit.

Supply and demand: When demand for mortgages is high, lenders tend to raise interest rates. This is because they have only so much capital to lend in the form of home loans. Conversely, when demand for mortgages is low, lenders tend to slash interest rates to attract borrowers.

Bond market activity: Mortgage lenders peg fixed interest rates, like fixed-rate mortgages, to bond rates. Mortgage bonds, also called mortgage-backed securities, are bundles of mortgages sold to investors and are closely tied to the 10-year Treasury. When bond interest rates are high, the bond has less value on the market where investors buy and sell securities, causing mortgage interest rates to go up.

Other key indicators: Employment patterns and other aspects of the economy that affect investor confidence and consumer spending and borrowing also influence mortgage rates. For instance, a strong jobs report and a robust economy could indicate greater demand for housing, which can put upward pressure on mortgage rates. When the economy slows and unemployment is high, mortgage rates tend to be lower.

Read more: Fact Check: Trump Doesn’t Have the Power to Force Lower Interest Rates

Is now a good time to get a mortgage?

Even though timing is everything in the mortgage market, you can’t control what the Fed does. «Forecasting interest rates is nearly impossible in today’s market,» said Wolf.

Regardless of the economy, the most important thing when shopping for a mortgage is to make sure you can comfortably afford your monthly payments.

More homebuying advice

Technologies

TMR vs. Hall Effect Controllers: Battle of the Magnetic Sensing Tech

The magic of magnets tucked into your joysticks can put an end to drift. But which technology is superior?

Competitive gamers look for every advantage they can get, and that drive has spawned some of the zaniest gaming peripherals under the sun. There are plenty of hardware components that actually offer meaningful edges when implemented properly. Hall effect and TMR (tunnel magnetoresistance or tunneling magnetoresistance) sensors are two such technologies. Hall effect sensors have found their way into a wide variety of devices, including keyboards and gaming controllers, including some of our favorites like the GameSir Super Nova.

More recently, TMR sensors have started to appear in these devices as well. Is it a better technology for gaming? With multiple options vying for your lunch money, it’s worth understanding the differences to decide which is more worthy of living inside your next game controller or keyboard.

How Hall effect joysticks work

We’ve previously broken down the difference between Hall effect tech and traditional potentiometers in controller joysticks, but here’s a quick rundown on how Hall effect sensors work. A Hall effect joystick moves a magnet over a sensor circuit, and the magnetic field affects the circuit’s voltage. The sensor in the circuit measures these voltage shifts and maps them to controller inputs. Element14 has a lovely visual explanation of this effect here.

The advantage this tech has over potentiometer-based joysticks used in controllers for decades is that the magnet and sensor don’t need to make physical contact. There’s no rubbing action to slowly wear away and degrade the sensor. So, in theory, Hall effect joysticks should remain accurate for the long haul.

How TMR joysticks work

While TMR works differently, it’s a similar concept to Hall effect devices. When you move a TMR joystick, it moves a magnet in the vicinity of the sensor. So far, it’s the same, right? Except with TMR, this shifting magnetic field changes the resistance in the sensor instead of the voltage.

There’s a useful demonstration of a sensor in action here. Just like Hall effect joysticks, TMR joysticks don’t rely on physical contact to register inputs and therefore won’t suffer the wear and drift that affects potentiometer-based joysticks.

Which is better, Hall effect or TMR?

There’s no hard and fast answer to which technology is better. After all, the actual implementation of the technology and the hardware it’s built into can be just as important, if not more so. Both technologies can provide accurate sensing, and neither requires physical contact with the sensing chip, so both can be used for precise controls that won’t encounter stick drift. That said, there are some potential advantages to TMR.

According to Coto Technology, who, in fairness, make TMR sensors, they can be more sensitive, allowing for either greater precision or the use of smaller magnets. Since the Hall effect is subtler, it relies on amplification and ultimately requires extra power. While power requirements vary from sensor to sensor, GameSir claims its TMR joysticks use about one-tenth the power of mainstream Hall effect joysticks. Cherry is another brand highlighting the lower power consumption of TMR sensors, albeit in the brand’s keyboard switches.

The greater precision is an opportunity for TMR joysticks to come out ahead, but that will depend more on the controller itself than the technology. Strange response curves, a big dead zone (which shouldn’t be needed), or low polling rates could prevent a perfectly good TMR sensor from beating a comparable Hall effect sensor in a better optimized controller.

The power savings will likely be the advantage most of us really feel. While it won’t matter for wired controllers, power savings can go a long way for wireless ones. Take the Razer Wolverine V3 Pro, for instance, a Hall effect controller offering 20 hours of battery life from a 4.5-watt-hour battery with support for a 1,000Hz polling rate on a wireless connection. Razer also offers the Wolverine V3 Pro 8K PC, a near-identical controller with the same battery offering TMR sensors. They claim the TMR version can go for 36 hours on a charge, though that’s presumably before cranking it up to an 8,000Hz polling rate — something Razer possibly left off the Hall effect model because of power usage.

The disadvantage of the TMR sensor would be its cost, but it appears that it’s negligible when factored into the entire price of a controller. Both versions of the aforementioned Razer controller are $199. Both 8BitDo and GameSir have managed to stick them into reasonably priced controllers like the 8BitDo Ultimate 2, GameSir G7 Pro and GameSir Cyclone 2.

So which wins?

It seems TMR joysticks have all the advantages of Hall effect joysticks and then some, bringing better power efficiency that can help in wireless applications. The one big downside might be price, but from what we’ve seen right now, that doesn’t seem to be much of an issue. You can even find both technologies in controllers that cost less than some potentiometer models, like the Xbox Elite Series 2 controller.

Caveats to consider

For all the hype, neither Hall effect nor TMR joysticks are perfect. One of their key selling points is that they won’t experience stick drift, but there are still elements of the joystick that can wear down. The ring around the joystick can lose its smoothness. The stick material can wear down (ever tried to use a controller with the rubber worn off its joystick? It’s not pleasant). The linkages that hold the joystick upright and the springs that keep it stiff can loosen, degrade and fill with dust. All of these can impact the continued use of the joystick, even if the Hall effect or TMR sensor itself is in perfect operating order.

So you might not get stick drift from a bad sensor, but you could get stick drift from a stick that simply doesn’t return to its original resting position. That’s when having a controller that’s serviceable or has swappable parts, like the PDP Victrix Pro BFG, could matter just as much as having one with Hall effect or TMR joysticks.

Technologies

Today’s NYT Connections: Sports Edition Hints and Answers for Feb. 18, #513

Here are hints and the answers for the NYT Connections: Sports Edition puzzle for Feb. 18, No. 513.

Looking for the most recent regular Connections answers? Click here for today’s Connections hints, as well as our daily answers and hints for The New York Times Mini Crossword, Wordle and Strands puzzles.

Today’s Connections: Sports Edition has a fun yellow category that might just start you singing. If you’re struggling with today’s puzzle but still want to solve it, read on for hints and the answers.

Connections: Sports Edition is published by The Athletic, the subscription-based sports journalism site owned by The Times. It doesn’t appear in the NYT Games app, but it does in The Athletic’s own app. Or you can play it for free online.

Read more: NYT Connections: Sports Edition Puzzle Comes Out of Beta

Hints for today’s Connections: Sports Edition groups

Here are four hints for the groupings in today’s Connections: Sports Edition puzzle, ranked from the easiest yellow group to the tough (and sometimes bizarre) purple group.

Yellow group hint: I don’t care if I never get back.

Green group hint: Get that gold medal.

Blue group hint: Hoops superstar.

Purple group hint: Not front, but…

Answers for today’s Connections: Sports Edition groups

Yellow group: Heard in «Take Me Out to the Ball Game.»

Green group: Olympic snowboarding events.

Blue group: Vince Carter, informally.

Purple group: ____ back.

Read more: Wordle Cheat Sheet: Here Are the Most Popular Letters Used in English Words

What are today’s Connections: Sports Edition answers?

The yellow words in today’s Connections

The theme is heard in «Take Me Out to the Ball Game.» The four answers are Cracker Jack, home team, old ball game and peanuts.

The green words in today’s Connections

The theme is Olympic snowboarding events. The four answers are big air, giant slalom, halfpipe and slopestyle.

The blue words in today’s Connections

The theme is Vince Carter, informally. The four answers are Air Canada, Half-Man, Half-Amazing, VC and Vinsanity.

The purple words in today’s Connections

The theme is ____ back. The four answers are diamond, drop, quarter and razor.

Technologies

Today’s NYT Mini Crossword Answers for Wednesday, Feb. 18

Here are the answers for The New York Times Mini Crossword for Feb. 18.

Looking for the most recent Mini Crossword answer? Click here for today’s Mini Crossword hints, as well as our daily answers and hints for The New York Times Wordle, Strands, Connections and Connections: Sports Edition puzzles.

Today’s Mini Crossword is a fun one, and it’s not terribly tough. It helps if you know a certain Olympian. Read on for all the answers. And if you could use some hints and guidance for daily solving, check out our Mini Crossword tips.

If you’re looking for today’s Wordle, Connections, Connections: Sports Edition and Strands answers, you can visit CNET’s NYT puzzle hints page.

Read more: Tips and Tricks for Solving The New York Times Mini Crossword

Let’s get to those Mini Crossword clues and answers.