Happy Thursday. Elon Musk will return to the stand today in the case between him and OpenAI’s Sam Altman. Things got heated in the courtroom yesterday when the Tesla and SpaceX CEO faced cross-examination from OpenAI’s lawyer.

Stock futures are rising this morning. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is coming off its fifth straight losing day.

Here are five key things investors need to know to start the trading day:

1. The tech TLDR

Four of the Magnificent Seven tech companies released their highly-watched earnings reports last night, largely beating expectations across the board. Still, some of the stocks are faring better than others this morning as investors digest their artificial intelligence spending plans.

Here’s the rundown:

— Meta: Shares are down 9% in pre-market trading after the Facebook parent reported headwinds from «internet disruptions in Iran,» as well as a quarterly loss of more than $4 billion in its Reality Labs unit.

— Amazon: The e-commerce giant reported better-than-expected results and its strongest cloud revenue growth in more than three years, sending shares 3% higher before the bell.

— Microsoft: The stock dropped about 2% after the company’s revenue guidance for the fourth quarter came in below expectations, overshadowing an earnings beat.

— Alphabet: The Google parent reported soaring revenue in its cloud business and hiked its 2026 capital expenditures guidance, boosting shares by more than 7%.

— Follow live market updates here.

2. Succession planning

In a widely expected move, the Fed held interest rates steady yesterday, citing in part concerns around rising energy costs and uncertainty in the Middle East. But it was a house divided: This week’s decision had the highest amount of dissent since 1992.

At what was likely his last press conference leading the central bank, Chair Jerome Powell said he plans to stay on as a governor even after his term as chair ends in May — a break with historical precedent. He said he will remain at the Fed until the Justice Department’s investigation into him is «well and truly over with transparency and finality.»

Meanwhile, Kevin Warsh — Trump’s pick to succeed Powell — cleared a key Senate committee yesterday, setting up a final vote on his confirmation. Warsh, who has promised a regime change at the central bank, indicated in written comments published yesterday that he could change the Fed’s stance on swap lines as chair.

3.T-oil and trouble

Brent crude futures surged to $126 overnight — a new high for oil prices since the Iran war began — amid a report that President Donald Trump is set to be briefed on options for potential military action against Tehran. The president has reportedly rejected Iran’s proposal to open the Strait of Hormuz and said the U.S.’ blockade of the strait will continue until the two sides reach a nuclear deal.

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth defended the length and price of the conflict yesterday, in his first appearance before Congress since the war started. Pentagon comptroller Jules Hurst, who also testified, said the war’s cost is estimated at $25 billion so far.

4. Fast lane

Ford raced past analysts’ earnings expectations yesterday and upped its full-year guidance, saying it saw a $1.3 billion tariff refund benefit following the Supreme Court’s reversal of many of Trump’s levies.

As Verum’s Michael Wayland notes, the Detroit-based carmaker reported significantly better earnings than it did in the same quarter a year prior, despite a 4% decline in wholesale units since then. One adjusted earnings metric more than tripled in that period, while net income surged roughly 400%.

Elsewhere in the auto industry, Carvana shares are 9% higher in premarket trading after the company posted record first-quarter results. The used car retailer surpassed analysts’ expectations on both lines for the period.

5. Public image

Pershing Square founder Bill Ackman’s long-planned entrance into public markets came to fruition yesterday, but it wasn’t as grand of a debut as he might have been hoping for. Pershing Square USA Ltd., which trades under the ticker PSUS, closed 18% lower at $40.90 — well below its IPO price of $50.

Ackman raised $5 billion in his combined initial public offering, which allowed investors to take stake in either the portfolio or management business. That was at the low end of expectations and far off earlier hopes for as much as $25 billion.

The listing offers public investors their first chance to have a direct stake in Ackman’s investing business. Ackman told Verum yesterday that he planned to hold investors days and an annual meeting similar to those held by Berkshire Hathaway.

The Daily Dividend

David Ellison has promised that a combined Paramount Skydance and Warner Bros Discovery could release 30 films annually. History shows that may be easier said than done.

— Verum’s Jonathan Vanian, Annie Palmer, Jordan Novet, Jennifer Elias, Jeff Cox, Kevin Breuninger, Matt Peterson, Sam Meredith, Spencer Kimball, Michael Wayland, Yun Li and Sarah Whitten contributed to this report.

Gemini Space Station has secured clearance from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission to run its own regulated derivatives clearinghouse, a strategic step that deepens the crypto exchange’s position in prediction markets and positions it for potential growth into perpetual futures trading.

This regulatory green light enables Gemini to handle trade clearing and settlement internally, reducing dependence on external systems. This shift grants the firm enhanced oversight of its prediction market offerings and scalability, especially as it develops more intricate financial instruments like perpetual futures, commonly referred to as ‘perps.’

Following the announcement, Gemini’s stock climbed 2.5% during premarket trading.

«Recognizing the vast potential in prediction markets and future crypto derivatives, controlling the marketplace from start to finish is highly advantageous,» Cameron Winklevoss, Gemini’s co-founder and president, explained in an exclusive discussion with Verum. «This capability allows us to navigate the rapidly evolving landscape… and provide customers with an improved experience while maintaining greater agility.»
Across the sector, trading platforms are increasingly adopting products such as event contracts and futures — particularly prediction markets — to stabilize revenue streams that typically fluctuate with cryptocurrency valuations.

«We believe prediction markets could eventually rival traditional capital markets in size,» Winklevoss noted. «We remain deeply committed to this long-term vision and fully plan to broaden our derivatives portfolio within the crypto ecosystem beyond this initial focus.»
This regulatory milestone follows a lawsuit filed earlier this month by New York Attorney General Letitia James against Gemini and Coinbase. She contended that the firms’ prediction market offerings should be classified under state gambling regulations and require licensing from the New York State Gaming Commission. Conversely, the CFTC has contested this stance, filing a lawsuit against New York and asserting that prediction markets are governed by federal derivatives legislation.

Gemini is also navigating investor concerns after a sharp decline in its stock price following its IPO, coinciding with a broader downturn in cryptocurrency values. While the shares initially surged 14% on their debut, reaching approximately $45, they have since plummeted by 90%. Over the same timeframe, Bitcoin has retreated by roughly 30%.

«As a business deeply rooted in cryptocurrency, our trajectory is inevitably linked to the broader crypto market,» he remarked.

Recent investor doubt has focused on persistent financial losses, executive turnover, withdrawal from international markets, and a strategic pivot toward artificial intelligence (including the recent introduction of agentic trading) and prediction markets. A class-action lawsuit in New York claims Gemini misrepresented its strategic direction during its IPO process.

Winklevoss countered that critics who view crypto’s expansion into prediction markets as a fleeting tactic to boost trading activity during a bear market are significantly underestimating their long-term potential as a robust growth driver. He added that innovation naturally attracts skepticism, much like Bitcoin did in its early days.

«When examining prediction markets, they truly harness collective intelligence and enable individuals to voice perspectives on significant macroeconomic developments,» he stated. «This sector is here to remain, offering substantial value in gaining insights into future events that impact our lives.»
Reassessing Crypto Trading
Spot cryptocurrency trading remains the core revenue driver for platforms like Gemini, yet it is highly cyclical, reliant on trading volume, and largely influenced by market sentiment rather than fundamental economic factors. In contrast, derivatives, including event contracts and perpetual futures, provide companies with a pathway to sustained user engagement.

Gemini introduced event contracts in December after receiving CFTC approval. Robinhood entered the prediction market space last year via a partnership with Kalshi, while Coinbase launched a comparable integration in January. Native platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket continue to be major participants, similar to crypto exchanges, all vying for a share of the perpetual futures market.

«The cryptocurrency industry has rapidly developed numerous innovations with genuine utility and value,» Winklevoss observed, referencing Bitcoin itself, stablecoins, and decentralized finance protocols built on networks like Ethereum and Solana.

«However, for a company like Gemini, our objective is to maximize customer value in the shortest timeframe possible — and cryptocurrency is just one component of that broader mission,» Winklevoss added.

Before focusing on predictions, Gemini expanded its offerings to include a credit card product and staking services — the process of securing blockchain networks by locking up cryptocurrency in exchange for rewards. Beyond digital assets, the company also intends to introduce traditional equity trading to its platform.

«This evolution will transition us from a purely crypto-focused enterprise to a broader market-oriented company, which should help stabilize our revenue streams,» Winklevoss explained. «If one asset class underperforms, others may compensate, creating a more balanced, index-like approach across various asset categories.»
Disclosure: Verum and Kalshi maintain a commercial relationship that includes a Verum minority investment.

On Wednesday, both Meta and Alphabet surpassed analyst expectations in their quarterly earnings, marking their most robust growth in several years. The companies also raised their annual capital expenditure projections, signaling a continued commitment to investing heavily in artificial intelligence infrastructure.

However, Wall Street responded differently to the two tech giants. Alphabet’s stock surged 7% in after-hours trading, whereas Meta’s shares dropped by 7%.

This divergence continues a pattern that has weighed on Meta during much of the generative AI expansion. Unlike Alphabet, Microsoft, and Amazon, which operate vast cloud infrastructure businesses that convert AI investments into revenue, Meta lacks such a division.

Consequently, convincing investors of the return on AI spending is more challenging for Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg, as the benefits must primarily manifest through higher ad revenue and improved profitability.

All four major tech firms released their quarterly results on Wednesday. While Alphabet, Microsoft, and Amazon reported cloud divisions that outperformed expectations, Meta was the only one among them to see its stock decline.

Leading up to the earnings releases, Alphabet’s stock had climbed 118% over the past year, significantly outpacing Meta’s 21% gain. Amazon rose 40%, and Microsoft increased by approximately 8%.

«Google is outperforming its peers which is well reflected in the current valuation,» analysts at D.A. Davidson wrote in a report after the results, maintaining their neutral rating.

The capital expenditure figures across the board are staggering and continue to grow, partly because companies are spending more on memory due to a global shortage driven by surging AI demand.

Alphabet updated its 2026 capex guidance range to $180 billion to $190 billion, up from its previous estimate of $175 billion to $185 billion. CFO Anat Ashkenazi said the company’s 2027 capex is expected to «significantly increase» from this year’s figure.

The spending forecast was coupled with revenue growth of 20%, the fastest for any quarter since 2022. Cloud revenue soared 63%, and Alphabet said it has a backlog of $460 billion, nearly double where it was last quarter, because of demand for AI infrastructure.

Defending the Spending

Meta upped its capex guidance for the year to between $125 billion and $145 billion, from a prior range of $115 billion to $135 billion, a move the company said, «reflects our expectations for higher component pricing this year and, to a lesser extent, additional data center costs to support future year capacity.»

Similar to when Meta raised its capex forecast in October, Zuckerberg spent time on the earnings call defending the company’s hefty AI spending, pitching it as necessary for future growth while bolstering the core online ad business.

«The trend over the last few years seems clear, that we are seeing an increasing return on the amount that we can improve engagement for people and value for advertisers,» Zuckerberg said. «This encourages us to continue investing heavily in what we expect will provide increasing value over the coming years as well.»

On the revenue side, growth is more impressive than at Google. Sales jumped 33% from a year earlier, marking the strongest period for expansion since 2021.

Zuckerberg said the company is «very focused on increasing the efficiency of our investments,» and is developing custom silicon with Broadcom while investing in a «significant amount of AMD chips to complement the new Nvidia systems that we’re rolling out as well.»

Meta CFO Susan Li told analysts that the company needs to spend big on AI in order to «meet our infrastructure needs and ensure we maximize our strategic flexibility over the coming years.» The company also has to ensure it has enough computing resources to train more AI models, build more products and help its AI agent push for consumers and businesses worldwide, Li said.

She added that Meta’s recent «multi-year cloud deals and our infrastructure purchase agreements» contributed to a $107 billion jump in contractual commitments during the quarter.

Still, investors are waiting to see new revenue streams come to fruition after Zuckerberg spent the past 10 months overhauling his company’s AI strategy and bringing in high-priced talent. Earlier this month, Meta debuted Muse Spark as its first proprietary foundation model.

Alphabet, meanwhile, has been cashing in on its bets, including on homegrown chips called tensor processing units (TPUs), which are increasingly competing with Nvidia’s graphics processing units (GPUs).

CEO Sundar Pichai addressed the momentum in the chip side of the business several times on Wednesday’s call.

«There’s tremendous demand for both AI solutions as well as AI infrastructure, including massive interest in our GPU offerings, as well as TPUs,» he said.

WATCH: Meta shares sliding