Technologies
Waiting for a Recession to Buy a Home? This Realtor Weighs In
Here are the most important things to know about mortgage rates during an economic downturn.
The economy’s been all over the place lately. Inflation might be coming down, but rising tariffs, stock market dips and global uncertainty are keeping everyone on edge. With mortgage rates bouncing around, homebuyers are asking me, Will housing become more affordable in a recession?
After more than 20 years in real estate, I’ve seen my share of ups and downs, from boom times to full-blown crashes, like 2008. The truth? There’s always opportunity, even in a downturn. The market doesn’t stop during a recession. It just shifts. And if you’re ready, that shift can actually work in your favor.
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Let’s break down what a recession really means for mortgage rates, home prices and your opportunity to buy a home.Â
Is a recession on its way?
There are plenty of recession warning signs right now. Layoffs are picking up, GDP is slowing and consumer confidence has dipped. Paychecks aren’t going as far, and retirement accounts are taking hits.Â
While less disposable income and tighter budgets point to a general slowdown in the economy, technically, we’re not in a recession. Not yet. It would take two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth to hit that definition. But for a lot of folks, it already feels like one.Â
High prices and inflation aren’t the same thing. Even if the inflation rate isn’t going up, the cost of everyday goods and services is still high, and budgets are getting hammered. When folks feel the squeeze every time they swipe a card at the grocery store, it shapes how they think about making huge purchases like a home.
Will the Fed cut interest rates?
Borrowing costs have been expensive for the last several years, making households and businesses wary about taking out loans. The Federal Reserve will probably cut interest rates again later this year, eventually making financing cheaper.Â
But those cuts won’t come for a while. The Fed’s a bit stuck right now. The economy’s losing steam and inflation is cooling, but not fast enough. The central bank is being cautious about shifting policy, especially with tariffs driving prices back up.
Though lower interest rates will eventually impact the housing market, the Fed doesn’t directly control mortgage rates. Mortgage rates move based on many factors, such as the bond market and investor expectations. Even when the Fed starts cutting rates again, don’t expect mortgage rates to drop like crazy. Many of those expected cuts are already priced into the market.Â
Will mortgage rates drop in a recession?
Mortgage rates often fall during an economic depression, as we saw recently in 2020 and earlier in 2008. Lower rates help boost the economy, and the Fed knows that.
But this time around, things are messier. There’s volatility everywhere. Even though rates could drop, they might also shoot back up with any good economic news. Like many experts in the real estate industry, I think average rates for a 30-year fixed mortgage will hover between 6.5% to 7.25% for most of 2025, with weekly jumps and dips in that range.Â
If you’re holding out for 4% or 5% mortgage rates, you may be waiting longer than you’d like. It’s going to take far more negative economic news to see rates fall in a big way.
It’s also worth pointing out that your personal financial situation matters more than your interest rate. If you’ve got a solid stream of income and a long-term plan for paying off a home loan, waiting for a perfect rate might not be worth it.
Will home prices go down in a recession?
Home prices are the big question. And the answer is… they won’t likely go down in a big way.
Historically, home prices don’t fall much during recessions. The 2008 housing crash was the exception, not the rule. What we’ll probably see is slower appreciation or small dips in certain markets, especially in areas hit by higher insurance costs, taxes or natural disasters (Florida, Texas and Louisiana come to mind).
But nationwide, we’re still dealing with low inventory. Until that changes, it’s hard to see prices dropping dramatically. Plus, given high construction and labor costs, it’s clear home prices aren’t falling off a cliff anytime soon.
Is it cheaper to buy a home during a recession?
If you’re financially stable, it could be cheaper to buy a home in a recession. You might find better deals, less competition and more negotiating power. But if lending tightens, getting a loan could get tougher. That’s something we’re already starting to see with condos and certain types of properties.
And don’t overlook the “wealth effect.” When people feel wealthier, like when their stock portfolio or home value is up, they’re more confident making big purchases.Â
But when those numbers start to slide, or there’s even a threat of job insecurity, even if nothing’s really changed day to day, people pull back. That affects buyer activity in a big way. If someone just lost $20,000 in their 401(k), they’re not rushing to get a new mortgage.
What’s the best time to buy a home?Â
The best time to buy a home is when it makes sense for you. If you’ve got a steady income and strong credit, and you’re ready to settle down, a recession could actually work in your favor.Â
Just don’t wait around for some magical “perfect time” to take out a mortgage. The green light most people are waiting for doesn’t exist. But if you prepare, stay informed and work with the right team, you can make a smart move no matter what the economy’s doing.
Technologies
Trump Maintains US‑Iran Negotiations Continue Amid Tehran’s Denials of Duplicity
President Trump insists that US‑Iran talks are ongoing despite Tehran’s denial of any negotiation plans, while warning that only a deal or total surrender will allow passage through the Strait of Hormuz. Conflicting statements from both sides have heightened uncertainty as the conflict enters its sixth month.
On Monday, President Donald Trump asserted that negotiations between the United States and Iran are still taking place, even after Tehran stated it has no intention of engaging in direct talks with Washington.
In a fiery Truth Social post, Trump labeled Iran’s leaders “unbelievably duplicitous,” claiming they are lying about ongoing peace talks “whether Iran wants to admit it or not.” He repeated his assertion that the United States completely controls the Strait of Hormuz, despite maritime traffic through the crucial route lingering at only a small fraction of pre‑conflict levels.
He wrote, “Nothing reaches Iran unless we allow it, and nothing will pass unless a deal—or total surrender—is achieved.”
Earlier that day, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmail Baghaei told reporters there is no imminent plan for U.S.–Iran negotiations, contradicting Trump’s earlier comment that talks would resume Monday afternoon. Baghaei added that Iran’s only current discussions are with Oman concerning the Strait of Hormuz.
The conflicting statements have heightened uncertainty over the peace‑talk process and the broader conflict, now in its sixth month.
Trump’s assertion about new negotiations came a day after he said on Truth Social that he had agreed to cancel a massive strike against Iran “subject to being able to rapidly make a DEAL.” He said in the same post that Iran and other Middle Eastern countries had asked him to hold off on that attack because “the perimeters of a deal has been agreed to.”
Trump has claimed dozens of times throughout the more‑than‑five‑month‑long war that a deal is at hand. No permanent deal has been signed, and a temporary ceasefire reached in June has fallen apart.
Trump has also repeatedly threatened to launch devastating strikes against Iran before backing off. After the latest example, oil prices on Monday fell and stocks surged.
BMI, a research unit of Fitch Solutions, said in a note Monday that a broader diplomatic understanding on reopening the Strait of Hormuz is still achievable this quarter, while raising the probability of its escalation scenario to 35% from 25%, citing mounting military, diplomatic and economic signs of rising U.S.-Iran tensions.
“Diplomatic progress is likely to be punctuated by periodic military flare-ups, while miscalculation by either side could trigger a renewed escalation,” BMI analysts wrote in a note. The firm said the key issue to watch is the future governance of the strait, as the Iran-Oman talks — potentially backed by Gulf states, China and the U.S. — point to efforts to build a post-conflict shipping framework.
Shipping risks persist even as diplomacy appears to be advancing. The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations Centre said it received a report of an incident 20 nautical miles (23 miles) northeast of Khasab, Oman — at the mouth of the strait — with a tanker’s master reporting an explosion in close proximity to the vessel at about 20:37 UTC Sunday (4:37 pm ET). The vessel and crew were safe and authorities are investigating, UKMTO said, advising ships to transit with caution.
The proposal Trump announced over the weekend calls for the U.S. and Iran to return to negotiations and continue ironing out some of the thorny issues that had derailed diplomatic efforts, according to The Associated Press, citing a regional official involved in the mediation efforts.
The official said the proposal also includes a reopening of the Hormuz Strait and halting attacks across the region, including by Iranian-backed militias in Iraq on the Arab Gulf countries and Jordan.
The U.S., for its part, will end its naval blockade on Iran and allow Tehran to export its oil, the official said, adding that no deal has been reached, although the mediation efforts remained underway.
Trump’s weekend reversal has lowered the temperature after days of escalating attacks across the Gulf. Kuwait said Saturday that Iranian forces launched a wave of drones within its airspace, with its military destroying multiple aircraft after Iran targeted critical infrastructure in the country’s north.
A parallel track with Muscat is also advancing. Iranian diplomats said Tehran was close to reaching a new arrangement with Oman to manage shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a deal critical to preventing the war from escalating further, according to the Financial Times.
Iranian officials said negotiations over future management of the Hormuz Strait with Oman, which sits on the opposite shore of the waterway, are in their final stages. The agreed shipping route would be different from those used before, according to Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson, Baghaei, adding that the new route was separate from the issue of the strait’s reopening or continued closure.
Technologies
Oil Prices Slide as Trump Halts Planned Iran Strike
Oil prices dropped after Trump cancelled a planned strike on Iran, with WTI down about 5% and Brent near 5% lower. He said the move followed requests from Tehran and regional allies for a pause while a deal shaping the Strait of Hormuz and Iran’s nuclear program is negotiated.
Oil prices fell on Monday after President Donald Trump announced he had cancelled a planned strike on Iran. WTI futures dropped roughly 5% to $80.34 a barrel, while Brent slipped about 4.7% to $83.77 a barrel.
Trump said early Sunday he called off the strike after Iran and several Middle Eastern nations asked him to hold off, noting that the outlines of a deal had been agreed upon. He added that the prospective accord would entail the immediate, full opening of the Strait of Hormuz and an end to Iran’s nuclear ambitions, according to his Truth Social post.
The president had been considering another round of strikes as diplomatic hopes waned since the conflict began on February 28. He said the U.S. and Iran would meet for talks on Monday, but Iran denied any scheduled negotiations with Washington, citing PressTV. Iran’s foreign‑ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei clarified that Tehran was only discussing shipping routes through the Strait of Hormuz with Oman. In a follow‑up Truth Social message, Trump insisted that, regardless of Iran’s acknowledgment, the United States is indeed discussing a solution to a long‑standing problem created by Iran.
Technologies
Oil Prices Drop as Trump Cancels Planned Attack on Iran
Oil prices fell sharply after President Trump announced the cancellation of a planned strike on Iran, citing a new deal that would open the Hormuz Strait and end Iran’s nuclear threat.
Oil prices fell sharply on Monday after President Donald Trump announced that he had called off a planned strike on Iran.
West Texas Intermediate futures, the U.S. benchmark, slipped roughly 5% to close at $80.34 per barrel, while Brent crude, the international benchmark, declined 4.7% to settle at $83.77 a barrel.
Trump made the announcement early Sunday, saying he had canceled the strike following requests from Tehran and other Middle Eastern countries.
In a Truth Social post, he wrote: “We have just been asked by Iran, and other Middle Eastern Countries, to hold off any attack in that the perimeters of a deal has been agreed to.”
The president indicated that the proposed agreement would include the immediate, complete, and total opening of the Hormuz Strait, as well as an end to Iran’s nuclear threat.
Trump had been weighing additional strikes amid diminishing prospects for a diplomatic resolution to the conflict that began on Feb. 28. He stated that the U.S. and Iran would hold negotiations on Monday.
Tehran denied that talks were planned with Washington, according to state news outlet PressTV.
Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei said Tehran was only holding talks with Oman regarding the routes ships can use through the Strait of Hormuz.
In a subsequent Truth Social post, Trump added that whether “Iran wants to admit it or not, we are, in fact, talking of a solution to a problem that they have caused for decades.”
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