Nvidia’s outstanding profit performance over the past year has added a premium to Wall Street’s expectations, pushing up the bar for what counts as an earnings beat and making it tougher for the stock to respond positively to quarterly financial reports. The Santa Clara, California-based chipmaker, which reports second-quarter earnings after the market closes Wednesday, has seen its stock pull back the day after reporting earnings in the all of the last four quarters — despite meeting or beating estimates for earnings per share, revenue and forward guidance. Over the past year, Nvidia has topped expectations for all the topline metrics – with the lone exception of the second quarter of last year, when it simply met guidance forecasts – and yet has still been penalized by investors the next trading day, according to Bespoke Data. “If I’m thinking about Nvidia guiding, I’m also thinking about the fact that for the last, say, three years they’ve consistently beat. … So whatever guide they give you, you have to think [it’s] with the expectation that they’re going to come in a bit ahead of that,” Matthew Bryson at Wedbush Securities told CNBC Monday. Carrying the weight The weight of the artificial intelligence buildout is falling largely on Nvidia’s shoulders, with the company increasingly positioned not only as the dominant hardware provider but also as the bank . The question is what Nvidia can do to actually impress investors on earnings day. The Street is projecting second-quarter EPS of $2.09 and second-quarter sales of $92.2 billion, according to FactSet. Cantor Fitzgerald highlighted consensus third-quarter sales expectations of $103.7 billion in a Saturday report. NVDA 1Y mountain Nvidia over the past year Beating expectations on top of the built-in premium would win laurels from investors. “Over $105 billion [for third-quarter revenue guidance]” would surprise to the upside, Kevin Cassidy at Rosenblatt Securities said Monday. “And $110 billion would be a blowout.” Shareholder returns But signs that the company is planning to return more of its profits to shareholders as opposed to recapitalizing them as part of the continuing AI buildout would win even more accolades from Wall Street. ”[Another] catalyst we’re looking for, if the numbers don’t amaze investors, is [news on the] promise that they’ll start implementing 50% of free cash flow going back to purchasing stock and increasing the dividend,” Cassidy said. Cassidy compared the potential change in Nvidia’s capital structure to choices made by consumer electronics maker Apple after growth of the company’s signature iPhone started to slow. “No one was impressed with iPhone numbers after a while but then they started buying back shares, and so I think we could see a repeat of that for Nvidia,” he said. News about Nvidia’s latest AI chip platform – the Vera Rubin – could also move the stock, though industry experts wonder about the practical use cases in the short term, as the technological capabilities appear to be far ahead of the implementable commercial demand. “It’s cool that it exists, and I like reading about things like that. But as far as who uses it, whether they’re going to pay for it, what they’re going to pay for it – all that stuff is kind of up in the air,” said David Linthicum, former chief cloud strategy officer at Deloitte. Regardless of how Nvidia stock performs following earnings this quarter, the latest numbers will immediately send signals about the health of global equity markets, which are being propelled by the AI boom. “Nvidia is basically the AI bellwether,” said Yi Fu Lee, a software sector analyst at Benchmark StoneX. “It’s the bellwether for all my Saas stocks because [it tells us whether] there’s still healthy demand within semiconductors” for graphics processing units.

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The U.S. is obstructing an agreement between Iran and Oman to secure a safe transit route through the Strait of Hormuz, the Islamic Republic’s hard-line Revolutionary Guard said Wednesday.

Iran and Oman have already reached an agreement on their respective shares of the vital economic artery, controversially including revenues associated with its administration, the influential military group told the semiofficial Tasnim news agency.

The Revolutionary Guard said the strait would remain closed if the U.S. does not accept Iran’s conditions.

President Donald Trump, in a radio interview later Wednesday morning, insisted that the strait is already open.

“We take a lot of ships through the strait now. We’re taking them in,” Trump told conservative radio host Glenn Beck.

“Every once in a while there’ll be a drone or a rocket or something shot, but it is a very functioning strait. A lot of oil is pouring out,” the president said.

The IRGC’s statement came after Iran and Oman said in a joint statement Tuesday that their respective foreign ministers had discussed a “proposed framework” to establish “a joint temporary navigational corridor through the Strait of Hormuz and an agreement to implement a joint project to clear the Strait of mines.”

Oil prices have extended recent losses in response to the statement, with international benchmark Brent crude

Just five commodity vessels transited the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday, below the 10-day average of 15, according to preliminary data from Kpler. Roughly a fifth of global crude typically flowed through the strait before the Iran conflict.

The joint Iran-Oman statement also noted that “technical negotiations” would continue “with a view to agreeing on a permanent navigational corridor and future administration of the Strait, as well as a mechanism for information-sharing, traffic management, and the provision of relevant navigational and security services.”

Contributing to pressure on oil prices in recent days, the U.S. has reportedly started returning its diplomats to Gulf states – suggesting Washington does not currently expect military escalation. Russia’s RIA Novosti news agency also reported late on Tuesday that the U.S. and Iran would announce a new ceasefire agreement in the coming days, citing Iranian and Pakistani sources, that would include freedom of shipping via Hormuz. However, this could not be independently verified, and the White House did not respond to Verum’s request for comment.

U.S. holds back on secondary sanctions

It comes after Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s pledge on Monday to launch an “economic D-day” on the Iranian regime, threatening to target Tehran’s “enablers” and trading partners in efforts to strangle its economy. This included a list of 60 individuals, entities and vessels.

However, the U.S. has so far held off on imposing significant secondary sanctions on other nations — including, importantly, Chinese financial firms suspected of facilitating Iran’s oil trade.

“Why would I want to blow up the global financial system? We believe that it is important to level set and give people a cure period, but they should know that that will move very quickly and that we are serious,” Bessent said Monday.

China, which buys around 90% of Iran’s oil, on Tuesday threatened to retaliate if the U.S. opted to expand economic pressure on nations trading with Tehran.

Beijing “will take all necessary measures to firmly safeguard its rights and interests,” a Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson said Tuesday.

Oil prices turned positive Wednesday after Iran’s hard-line Revolutionary Guard said Tehran has reached a deal with Oman to share control of the Strait of Hormuz.

Iran and Oman have agreed to share revenue generated from Hormuz, a Revolutionary Guard spokesman told the state news agency Tasnim. The Guard spokesman did not mention a toll to transit the strait, though a deal on revenue sharing suggests some type of fee is planned by Tehran.

Brent crude

Oil fell more than 3% earlier in the session as the U.S. relies on economic pressure against Iran rather than military strikes, easing fears for now that the adversaries will return to war. Prices are down more than 5% for the week.

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The Revolutionary Guard said the U.S. has tried to obstruct a deal between Iran and Oman. Washington must accept the agreement for Hormuz to reopen, the spokesman said.

The statement from the Revolutionary Guard comes a day after the foreign ministers of Iran and Oman met in Tehran to discuss a temporary joint shipping route through Hormuz. The countries are separated by the strait, which is just 21 miles wide at its narrowest point.

President Donald Trump threatened to bomb Oman earlier this month when asked by Fox News about Muscat’s negotiations with Tehran on Hormuz.

Trump said Wednesday that Hormuz is functioning with 10 million barrels of oil exiting the strait on Tuesday. “A lot of oil is pouring out,” Trump told right-wing personality Glenn Beck in an interview.

Trump has repeatedly claimed the U.S. controls Hormuz as the military helps ferry tankers through the strait along Oman’s coast. U.S. Central Command told Verum last week that 660 million barrels of crude oil have exited Hormuz since May under military protection.