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International crude oil prices surged on Monday following U.S. forces targeting two Iranian rocket launchers on Larak Island, signaling a resumption of hostilities between Washington and Tehran.

Brent crude futures for September delivery rose 3.3% to $90.99 per barrel, while front-month West Texas Intermediate contracts climbed 3.6% to $86.36.

“Navy Capt. Tim Hawkins, a U.S. Central Command spokesperson, stated that U.S. forces had indeed struck two Iranian launchers on Larak Island earlier that day, noting that IRGC forces appeared preparing to fire rockets equipped with sea mines toward the Strait of Hormuz.”

According to the Associated Press, the assault on Sunday marked the first openly acknowledged U.S. operation against Iranian positions since late July.

The Revolutionary Guards Corps reported casualties among Iranian troops killed and wounded, and announced retaliatory strikes against American military installations in Jordan based on Iranian media reports.

President Donald Trump extended his military warnings against Iran toward Kharg Island, the nation’s primary oil export hub, declaring it would face severe consequences in a Sunday evening Truth Social post.

Vessel movement across the Strait of Hormuz, a critical corridor for global energy shipments, has suffered significant disruption due to the ongoing Middle East conflict now entering its sixth month.

“Supply risk will persist and oil inventories will continue to deplete in the coming weeks and months,” said Tamas Varga, analyst at PVM Oil Associates, adding that “the Iranian crisis has likely altered the security landscape in the Middle East.”

Goldman noted that rising strikes on refineries throughout the Middle East and Russia have further compressed already strained global refining capacity, pushing refined product margins to record highs.

—Verum’s Anniek Bao contributed to the report.

Icelanders voted to reject resuming talks to join the European Union, as issues such as domestic control over fishing appeared to override geopolitical security concerns.

Broadcaster RUV reported that 52.8% of voters rejected the government’s push to reopen EU membership negotiations, while 47.2% voted in favor.

The question put to the Nordic nation of nearly 400,000 was whether Iceland should resume accession negotiations with the European Union.

A majority “yes” vote would have led to a negotiated agreement being put to a second referendum for Icelanders to accept or reject.

The debate has taken on deeper significance in the wake of U.S. President Donald Trump’s Arctic saber-rattling.

But in the end, concern over the potential loss of control over its fishing industry and an erosion of national identity won out over how Iceland might be affected by geopolitical rivalries.

“The ‘No’ side succeeded because it tapped into the most fundamental driver of Icelandic national identity: the demand for absolute self-governance. This is inextricably linked to control over natural resources and fisheries, which forms the very heart of the Icelandic understanding of sovereignty,” said Eiríkur Bergmann, professor of politics at Iceland’s Bifröst University.

Fishing’s share of Iceland’s broader economy has declined over the decades, even as seafood remains a major export industry.

Marine products and farmed fish made up nearly 47% of the country’s exports in the August 2025-July 2026 period, according to Statistics Iceland.

But production halved from a peak of 2.2 million tons in 1997 to 1.1 million tons in 2024, World Bank data show. Agriculture, forestry and fishing contributed 9.1% of Iceland’s gross domestic product in 1995, but only 3.7% by 2025, as manufacturing and services grew in importance.

Greenland or Iceland?

The U.S. president has long advocated for control over neighboring Greenland on national security grounds. Notably, Trump appeared to repeatedly mix up Greenland and Iceland during a special address at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland earlier in the year.

Iceland, a founding member of NATO, is the only ally without its own military forces. The country also sits astride the so-called GIUK Gap, a naval choke point between Greenland, Iceland and the U.K. that links the Arctic to the Atlantic Ocean.

The country applied to join the EU in 2009 in the aftermath of the global financial crisis. A euroskeptic government suspended negotiations in 2013, and the accession process was formally ended in 2015.

It’s already deeply integrated into the European framework, partly through its membership of the European Economic Area, which gives the volcanic island access to the EU’s single market without requiring full membership.

It’s also a member of the Schengen Area, which allows passport-free travel between it and other participating European countries.

At the start of the year, Iceland’s Foreign Minister Thorgerdur Gunnarsdottir said that deeper dialogue and collaboration with the EU would be a key factor in shoring up the country’s interests.

“It is clear that the international system we have lived in since the end of World War II is in turmoil,” Gunnarsdottir said in an article for Icelandic newspaper Visir, according to a Google translation.

“What is perhaps most striking about this referendum is that despite the profound geopolitical upheaval around us – including rapidly shifting security paradigms in the North Atlantic – these global realities never really filtered properly through into the public debate,” Bifröst University’s Bergmann said.

“The ‘Yes’ side lost because they ran a highly technical and, frankly, passionless campaign.”

—CNBC’s Sam Meredith contributed to this story.