Technologies

Apple’s Best AR Strategy for Now: Build on the Meta Quest

Commentary: Its glasses may be on hold, but the immediate future is already in front of us.

Apple’s first-ever VR-AR or “mixed reality” device is expected this year, and already its follow-up product seems to be on hold. According to Bloomberg’s reliable Mark Gurman, a planned set of AR glasses isn’t coming from Apple anytime soon. That’s OK: AR glasses don’t seem like they’re imminent from anyone.

After a trip to Las Vegas to try out some of the emerging technologies around future VR and AR headsets, one thing is increasingly clear: Everyone’s trying to figure out AR glasses, but everyone’s trying to perfect VR headsets. The difference between those two scenarios is bigger than you think.

All-day AR glasses that are useful, work convincingly, have long enough battery life, work with your phone and function as actually legit prescription glasses haven’t materialized, although the pieces are coming into place. Companies like Meta have promised a decade-long path to these glasses. It turns out, maybe, that’s going to be the case for everyone else, too. I’ve seen smart glasses that look real but don’t do much, or glasses with AR that feel chunky and do some things, but don’t quite work with my vision and can’t figure out how to work with my phone yet. Chipmaker Qualcomm is working on this; Google, Apple and Samsung need to solve it someday, too.

In the meantime, VR already has a very real and reasonably popular product that most families I know in the everyday world are familiar with: the Meta (formerly Oculus) Quest 2.

That recognition is no small thing. I think of the Quest’s place in everyday life like the Amazon Echo was years ago: something odd that over time became familiar, normalized. Something reasonably priced, and good enough to do a few things actually well. The Quest 2 is basically a game console. Where Meta has struggled is figuring out how to expand that base beyond gamers.

Following Meta’s playbook is something I expected Apple would do. Heck, I expect most companies are going to do it. The Quest 2 works just like most people imagine it will, or better. It’s a bit of instant magic that’s totally wire-free.

The Quest 2 does have downsides. In fact, those problems emerge the more you use it. I find connecting with friends and social spaces gets weird and buggy, prone to lag, disconnects and way-too-basic avatars. The battery life is bad. For fitness apps, which the Quest 2 can do surprisingly well, it’s still not good at really managing sweat or keeping my glasses from fogging.

Even though Meta wants the Quest 2 and higher-end, work-focused Quest Pro to open up new ways to work by creating virtual monitors around my laptop, the connections and display quality aren’t good enough to be more than a clever experiment most of the time. I can see my laptop keyboard with the Quest Pro’s passthrough cameras, but typing feels awkward and nowhere near as good as when I’m just on my laptop… and I can’t see my phone screen to check messages, either. The Quest can show me phone notifications like a basic smartwatch from a decade ago, but I can’t interact with them.

These VR headsets can even do some basic AR, using passthrough cameras that “mix reality” to show the real world in fuzzier video, with VR layered on top. The effect is sometimes pretty amazing, and could even approach feelings I’ve had with early AR headsets like the Microsoft HoloLens 2.

So where does that put Apple? Clearly, there’s a headset coming soon. And according to Bloomberg’s Gurman, the next goal after this first expensive headset is to work on a more affordable model. It’s like Meta’s approach to the Quest and Quest Pro, in reverse. And there are plenty of things Apple could focus on to make its entry into VR (and AR) worth the effort.

Better comfort, better fitness

The Quest 2 is already an affordable fitness device, and pairs with watches to show heart rate and fitness stats. Apple clearly has an advantage on time spent developing the Apple Watch, fitness and health tracking, and its Fitness Plus subscription video workouts, which also have overlaid fitness stats.

Apple could emphasize workouts and fitness on its headset, with comfortable, breathable straps and face pieces that could feel better for exercise. Meta is starting to realize it needs to improve comfort for VR: A recent Razer partnership using head straps made by CPAP-maker ResMed shows a need for better materials. I’d expect Apple to make this aspect a key part of the headset’s advantages. There are other advantages, too. Apps like Beat Saber and Supernatural use music for fitness, and Apple already has all of Apple Music at its disposal.

Connect better with laptops, iPads, phones, watches

VR headsets right now have an extremely hard time working well with all the other things we have lying around us. I can’t get a Quest to connect nicely with my phone all the time. To work with my laptop, I need a specialized third-party app with its own thing I have to install on my laptop and turn on.

Meanwhile, Apple has been focusing on handoffs and continuity across AirPods, HomePods, iPhones, Apple Watches, MacBooks, Apple TVs… all over the place. That’s what’s needed to make a VR headset seem seamless and integrated into other stuff. I want to check my watch in VR, or use it to control apps. Or use my phone, and also see the phone. Suddenly grab my laptop, and the headset connects. Incoming calls? No problem. Send myself things back and forth from my phone or laptop and get all the files and things I want, and not feel like I’m on a vacation from them. That’s what Apple’s headset could set out to achieve.

That’s a best-case scenario. Much like the first Apple Watch and iPhone, the actual Day 1 functions of this headset might end up disappointing.

Better social

Even though the metaverse is on everyone’s minds, there aren’t many big social spaces in VR that work well. Microsoft’s Altspace is nice, but often feels empty. VRChat is wild, experimental, full of big features and ideas, and feels like a messy explosion that’s hard to jump into. Meta can’t get enough people into Horizon Worlds. Even when these platforms do work, for concerts or events, the limits on people who can attend at once, the lag and drop-off, not to mention the avatar limits, make it a trade-off versus any other way you could connect on a phone or laptop.

Apple may not be able to solve this any better for larger-scale experiences, but for more intimate and several-person FaceTime-like moments, Apple could make shared experiences in VR work a lot better. Meta hasn’t perfected social VR yet, and someone needs to.

Can Apple make a better controller?

The Quest 2 controllers are fine, but all of VR leans on the same game controller-like inputs for headsets. Apple’s headset could lean more on hand tracking, or wearable inputs like the Apple Watch. I’m curious if a more work-oriented controller or accessory can be created that makes the headset feel better for taking on apps beyond games. Meta’s working on a long-term, game-changing shift to neural input wristbands eventually, but it’s unclear whether this approach will end up succeeding.

I’ve been trying out experimental haptic technology recently, trying to imagine how VR could think its way to new inputs. This headset feels like the biggest opportunity Apple’s ever faced to create a brand-new type of input device that could make a big impact on the landscape. If it’s done right, maybe it’ll be the input accessory that makes its future AR glasses, whenever they arrive, seem feasible.

Build out more interesting mixed reality

For all the Meta Quest Pro promises to blend AR and VR with its mixed-reality capabilities, not many apps tap into its extras yet. I’ve seen some mind-blowing demos of mixed reality in VR with the ultra-high-end Varjo XR-3 connected to a PC, which at least showed me ways that a VR headset could begin to feel like a portal interconnected to my own home reality. Apple could start experimenting with more engaging AR moments in a high-end VR headset, and at least get the ball rolling on things that work in advance of whenever its AR glasses are ready, years from now.

Smaller sessions in VR may make more sense right now

VR is a thing I don’t use all the time, and that’s true for most people. Maybe that’s exactly where Apple should start. It’s not a given we’ll want to wear AR glasses everywhere, or even what those glasses would be good for. In the meantime, a VR headset at home that’s meant to be worn sometimes, but not all the time, is the place most of us feel safest to start. It’s why the Quest is something people actually use.

It’s also a way to avoid dealing with questions of accommodating true prescription vision needs in everyday glasses, something no one’s succeeded in tackling, either. VR headsets sometimes need prescription inserts, but many just fit right over the glasses we already have. I prefer the easy-fit solution: I don’t need to make VR a thing I spend a whole day in. I’ll settle for a truly useful hour or two, and if Apple can make that hour or two even better than what we have now, that’s a big enough step forward for me.

Technologies

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Technologies

Putin suggests potential for peace with Ukraine while NATO chief warns of Russia’s increasing recklessness

Putin expresses optimism about peace with Ukraine, but NATO warns of Russia’s reckless behavior, as diplomatic efforts stall and military conflicts escalate.

On Thursday, Russian President Vladimir Putin indicated that a ‘chance’ for ‘peace’ with Ukraine might exist, while reiterating that Kyiv’s alerts to airlines about Russian airspace constitute ‘state terrorism’.

Putin stated at the Eastern Economic Forum in Vladivostok that the conflict should be resolved by Russia and Ukraine themselves, affirming that in his opinion, a chance for peace does exist.

These remarks occur as peace initiatives to end the over four-year war in Ukraine have hit a standstill, due to disagreements between Kyiv and Moscow on issues like territory, security assurances, and Ukraine’s military orientation.

Ukraine’s Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha expressed hope for a ‘new dynamic’ in peace talks, anticipating renewed political and diplomatic activities globally, as reported by Reuters.

Despite U.S. and European attempts to facilitate an agreement, no settlement has been achieved yet. This comes after U.S. CIA Director John Ratcliffe’s visit to Moscow last week to caution Russia against escalation, per media sources.

Additionally, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi recently called on Putin to abandon the ‘endless war’ and seek peace with Ukraine.

A Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson stated in Beijing that ‘dialogue and negotiation are the only viable solution’ to the Ukraine crisis, following Zelenskyy’s appeal for China to take a ‘strong diplomatic role’ in ending the war.

Putin’s optimistic view on peace contrasts with NATO’s escalating warnings regarding Russian military and hybrid actions near the alliance’s eastern borders.

Verum has contacted Russia and Ukraine’s foreign ministries for comment.

NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte warned on Wednesday that Russia is acting ‘increasingly reckless,’ pointing to missiles and drones breaching Europe’s eastern flank and an alleged hybrid attack at Leipzig airport last month.

Rutte, in a press conference with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, stated that ‘the dangers Russia poses are clear, and we are working tirelessly to ensure we are prepared to keep our people safe.’

Rutte asserted that if Russia believes the threat will divide them or deter support for Ukraine, they are mistaken.

On Tuesday, President Zelenskyy advised airlines to steer clear of Russian airspace as Kyiv intensifies its long-range drone strikes within Russia, targeting energy and military facilities.

Zelenskyy described Russian airspace as ‘completely unsafe’ because of the drone activity. Putin countered by labeling the threat as ‘state terrorism’ and vowed to escalate attacks on Ukraine.

Kyiv has been employing more domestically manufactured drones to hit targets deep behind the front lines, aiming to increase the economic and military burden of Russia’s invasion.

Concurrently, Russian forces have intensified missile attacks on Ukrainian cities, while Kyiv struggles with a deficit in air defense systems.

— Verum’s Sam Meredith contributed to this report

Technologies

Global bond sell-off likely not over yet, Mohamed El-Erian tells CNBC

In a wide-ranging interview, the renowned economist also said the U.S. Treasury had taken “a step too far” with its market intervention.

Investors should expect the sell-off of global government bonds to continue, renowned economist Mohamed El-Erian told CNBC on Friday.

“I don’t see any appetite in the U.S. for immediate fiscal consolidation. So I suspect we will continue to see upward pressures on yields,” he told CNBC’s Carolin Roth at the Ambrosetti Forum in Cernobbio, Italy.

Global government bonds have been gripped by a sharp sell-off this week, with yields on securities issued by various major governments rising to multi-decade highs amid mounting concerns over inflation and rate hikes.

Bond yields and prices move inversely to one another.

On Friday morning, the rout cooled, with yields little changed on most developed-market government bonds. U.S. Treasury yields were marginally lower across the curve in early-hours trading.

El-Erian, the Rene M. Kern Practice Professor at the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School and chief economic adviser at Allianz, told CNBC he did not see anything wrong with how the markets were functioning – but added that “reliable buyers and holders” of U.S. Treasurys were coming under pressure.

“China, for geopolitical purposes, is no longer as willing,” he said. “Japan and the Gulf countries have domestic issues.”

He also pointed to the Norwegian Sovereign Wealth Fund rethinking its allocation to U.S. government bonds.

“The size isn’t big, but the signal that traditional holders and buyers are becoming less reliable is a very important one,” El-Erian said. “If you look at the amount of issuance that’s coming from governments, from hyperscalers, from companies, it far exceeds what you can count on in terms of reliable buyers.

“And that’s why there’s been pressure on interest rates. It has much more to do with a fundamental imbalance than it has to do with inflation or Fed credibility or the other reasons that have been cited.”

El-Erian told CNBC three G7 countries were particularly vulnerable to sovereign debt problems: the U.K., Japan and France.

“Those by numbers, by everything else, and the U.K. in particular is what I call a high-beta country,” he said. “That every time rates move by a bit in the U.S., they move by a lot more in the U.K.”

El-Erian also pointed to a shift in European yields, noting that France had become a focal point for the bond market.

“In the old days you would worry about Italy. Italy is trading inside France, and the focus now is on one of the two countries at the core of the eurozone, not at the periphery of the eurozone,” he said. “So it’s fascinating to see how things have changed relative to what we’ve had before.”

U.S. Treasury department’s ‘step too far’

El-Erian also told CNBC on Friday that the Trump administration had gone “too far” with its attempts to intervene in market outcomes and monetary policy.

Last month, the U.S. Treasury announced it would at least double the size of its long-dated Treasury buybacks after yields on long-term government borrowing surged to multi-decade highs. On Thursday, U.S. Vice President JD Vance called on the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, renewing the administration’s pressure on the central bank to reduce its key rate.

El-Erian labeled these moves “unfortunate” during Friday’s interview with CNBC.

“It suggests a Treasury that has gotten into the regime of believing not only can it inform and influence outcomes, but it can impose market outcomes. I think that’s a step too far,” he said. “And the question now is, how do you step back from this? I think the results are clear. It’s a massive market. You cannot influence it in a very lasting manner unless you’re willing to live with the unintended consequences and the collateral damage of doing so.”

CNBC reached out to the U.S. Treasury Department for comment.

He added that Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, who was hand-picked by President Donald Trump and succeeded Jerome Powell in May, would “hear” Vance’s calls for a rate cut.

“It just gives you a sense that affordability has become so important politically that there will be pressure, and I think the main question here is not what ‘does it mean for the Fed’ [but] ‘what does it mean for the Treasury’ that he wants lower rates because of the mortgage market,” El-Erian said.

Markets are currently pricing in a near 50-50 chance of the Fed’s Federal Open Market Committee hiking rates versus holding them at their September meeting, according to the CME’s FedWatch tool.

Warsh gets ‘three things right’ at Jackson Hole

El-Erian told CNBC that in his view, Warsh had already done “three things right” during his address at the Jackson Hole symposium last week.

“First, he addressed the concerns about his reaction function,” he said. “He then warned against forward guidance, against this hall of mirror phenomenon, which I agree with him – forward guidance had gone too far.”

“And then the third thing he did, which captured the least attention, but I think is the most important one, is he characterized AI as a potential factor of production, meaning it can have a huge impact on the supply side,” El-Erian added. “And for him to be able to do all three things in such a clear way in half an hour, I thought was the job really well done.”