Technologies
2023 Could Be the Metaverse’s Make-or-Break Year
A wave of new VR/AR headsets is coming, but Apple’s plan is the biggest mystery of all.
I could tell you about all the VR headsets and AR glasses and theoretical apps I tried this year that were supposed to define 2022’s vision of the metaverse. Instead I’ll just tell you about the best thing I did this year, and the thing I miss the most: Doing improv acting workshops with a little group of other performers in VR.
We gathered every week in an app called Altspace VR, invited by a brilliant interactive acting teacher named Jeff Wirth. We met every Monday, exploring ideas in performance with avatars. I put on my Quest 2 headset in my dusty little home office and met with friends I’d never seen in person.
The class ended too soon, and when I look back, I remember these sessions like we were really together. That’s what the metaverse is to me. It’s a real thing. We’re just not all there yet.
2022: A brief look forward, but only brief
More recently, standing in a kitchen, changing countertops and looking at cabinet finishes, I walk over to the window. I see a blank white room outside, along with a mirror. I see myself, with a VR headset on. I’m standing in a virtual room, suspended in a real room with mixed reality, wearing a Varjo XR-3 headset. This jarring moment represents the future — yet still the unrealized potential — of what could be coming next.
I thought 2022 would be a big year for VR and AR, and even the metaverse, a buzzword concept that’s a stand-in for how the world’s internet and virtual communities, including social media, could evolve. It wasn’t. An economic downturn, crypto’s collapse, waves of tech layoffs, and the delay of many of the most-expected VR/AR devices turned this year around fast.
Now 2023 is looking to be the big year for immersive “extended reality” (aka XR). Apple’s long-expected headset should arrive, with expectations that it’ll rattle the landscape. Meta’s Quest 3 is confirmed. The PlayStation VR 2, a headset I’ve already tried, is coming in February. And who knows what other surprises the new year will bring?
As far as the metaverse goes, it’ll only move as far as mass social adoption takes it. I’m more interested in the hardware that’ll power such tech, because until VR and AR headsets take their next leap, it’s still going to be a challenge to expect people to spend more time in them than they already are. But this is what 2022 showed me, and where it points to 2023.
Magic Leap 2, Meta Quest Pro: A mixed-reality future coming
The two headsets that made the biggest impact on me this year bookended 2022: Magic Leap 2 and Meta Quest Pro. They are, in many ways, mirror products. One is trying to approach the future of mixed reality from the AR side; the other is coming to mixed reality from the VR side. Both are trying to become more comfortable, and more reliable. Both show that there still is no ideal form for The Next Headset yet, but we’re slowly getting closer to a consensus on how the devices might do it.
The Magic Leap 2, a follow-up to the original Magic Leap headset that debuted back in 2018, has pivoted from a device targeted at the masses to a headset for business. The hardware is considerably better, and it maps overlaid, glowing virtual objects onto the real world with a greater field of view. It also, amazingly, dims out the world â a bit like a pair of sunglasses. But it’s not the ideal set of AR glasses: it runs on a more powerful dedicated processor connected to a belt-mounted mini-computer that it’s tethered to, and its single controller is fine for basic controls but not necessarily for full immersive interaction.
The Meta Quest Pro really isn’t that big a change from the two-year-old Quest 2, and certainly isn’t worth the extra $1,100 for anyone who isn’t a developer. But its improved features eye- and face-tracking, and better mixed reality with color passthrough cameras — are indicators of what will show up on many VR headsets (and AR ones) in 2023 and beyond.
The Quest Pro’s mixed reality is what really surprised me. It’s not great, but it’s similar in spirit to what the Varjo XR-3 headset can do. And the Pro, when it’s on my head running a mixed-reality app, reminds me more of AR headsets like the Microsoft HoloLens 2 than a VR headset. The way I can see the world and also see around the display through my peripheral vision feels like some sort of glasses-like AR experience, for a moment, even if it’s not.
No one is able to make good AR glasses yet. Instead, everyone’s trying to get a bit closer as best they can.
Expect more competition for Meta
The Pico 4 VR headset, made by TikTok parent company ByteDance, feels like a clone of the Meta Quest 2 but with some improvements. What’s really surprising is its price undercuts Meta’s. ByteDance did this intentionally, and likely at a loss, but it shows that somewhat affordable standalone VR headsets could be a much more common thing going forward. Pico already has them. Some of Qualcomm’s device partners using the company’s ubiquitous VR/AR chips will have them, including, likely, HTC Vive, which is already teasing a mixed-reality headset for CES. Valve is rumored to have a standalone VR headset of its own, codenamed Project Deckard, that could make a big gaming splash. Pimax, a manufacturer of VR headsets, has a combination gaming handheld/VR headset called the Pimax Portal expected for early 2023, too.
What about phone-connected headsets?
Qualcomm has been promising a wave of phone-tethered AR and VR devices for years, and they’ve been starting to emerge. HTC’s Vive Flow, released in 2021, was an attempt at a smaller pair of phone/VR glasses. Qualcomm’s latest initiatives for smaller AR glasses arriving between 2023 and 2025 can work wirelessly with phones. It’s probably pretty likely that the powerful phones we carry with us will help do some of the heavy lifting for smaller headsets in the next few years. Apple could be planning that approach with its expected headset in 2023.
Here comes Apple
Apple’s long-expected headset, likely to be VR with mixed-reality capabilities similar to what the Quest Pro provides, could shake up the landscape like nothing else since the Oculus Rift. Apple’s products tend to disrupt and take over categories: the iPhone, the iPad, the Apple Watch, AirPods. Can Apple do the same with VR and AR? It’s a far greater challenge, especially with the technical questions and the expected price (well over $1,000, possibly several thousand), as well as the recession climate we’re in globally.
Even more interesting to me is who else comes out of the woodwork alongside Apple. Google has been laying low with AR and VR for years since its discontinued Google Daydream platform, but recent efforts like Project Starline and assistive smart glasses show there’s exploration going on. Samsung hasn’t had a new AR or VR device in years, either, even though the company was a VR pioneer with Gear VR and tends to jump into markets early with bold experimental products. Will 2023 be a year for showing surprise products?
Will people care enough to wear them?
As I ask myself whether VR headsets really have a future in people’s homes, I’m distracted by my 14-year-old son, who’s literally playing a VR game on the Quest 2 right next to me. VR’s already here for many people. It’s hard to appreciate that. It’s not “what if,” it’s “what else can I do?”. VR headsets are mostly clever, limited-use game consoles for most people. Meta’s tried to flex the Quest to be more. Not everyone’s been interested, and the Quest’s not fully up to the challenge.
The next wave of VR and AR headsets need to be better at what they do: to be better game consoles; have more comfortable displays, more useful controllers and ways to interact; be more interconnected with the apps and devices we already have; be more portable and more accessible.
They need to work better with prescription glasses (I find many headsets don’t fit with my glasses, or can’t accommodate my prescription). New apps need to emerge that can show what a seamless 3D virtual world can do for us. Sony, Meta, possibly Apple and whoever else shows up next year need to do this, because VR/AR headsets aren’t necessary tools for everyone yet. They have proved some successes: for design, for simulations, for gaming, even for fitness. In 2023, I’m interested in seeing if they can be more.
One thing that does seem certain, though: There are a lot of new VR headsets coming in 2023, and they’re coming soon.
Technologies
Amodei’s AI Slowdown Could Reshape Anthropic’s Planned IPO
As Anthropic meets with prospective investors ahead of its potentially historic market debut, CEO Dario Amodei is pushing for a slowdown in AI.
Anthropic’s path to an IPO just became significantly more complex.
While the company behind Claude is meeting with potential investors ahead of its potentially landmark debut, co-founder and CEO Dario Amodei is advocating for a strategy that appears to contradict these ambitious plans: slowing down.
Anthropic, which was valued at $965 billion earlier this year, has confidentially filed its IPO prospectus and is widely expected to list its shares as soon as next month. At the same time, concerns about the power of advanced AI models have been growing, spilling into the mainstream as more researchers warn of potential threats of human extinction.
In this context, Amodei wrote an essay over the weekend urging the AI industry to slow the pace of model development, proposing a three-step plan to temper how quickly model capabilities improve without “sacrificing commercial advantage or the United States’ lead in AI.”
This is the latest challenge facing public market investors who are trying to determine what they’re willing to pay for a piece of a five-year-old company that’s already among the most valuable in the world and could seek a $2 trillion valuation in its IPO. Although Anthropic may have to accept a hit to revenue growth, some experts say an intentional slowdown could help Anthropic position itself as a responsible actor, avoid future liability and address the public backlash towards AI that’s been building across the country.
“I don’t know that investors are necessarily going to see it as a negative,” Gil Luria, an equity analyst at D.A. Davidson, said in an interview. “Unless the companies are genuine and say, ‘OK, we’re not going to IPO, we’re not going to use any more compute, we’re not going to train any more models.’ That’s not what they’re saying.”
Technologies
Iran Claims It Shot Down U.S. Advanced Drone Above Strait of Hormuz Amid Escalating Middle East Tensions
Iran says it shot down an advanced U.S. MQâ1 drone over the Strait of Hormuz as tensions rise. The claim comes amid stalled diplomacy, renewed threats over oil control, and rising crude prices.
Iranian military announced it has destroyed an advanced American drone over the Strait of Hormuz, marking the latest exchange as Tehran and Washington trade warnings and strikes with no sign of deâescalation. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said on Monday that its “new advanced aerospace defence system” intercepted and destroyed an advanced MQâ1 drone in the Hormuz strait, without providing further details on the droneâs mission. The MQâ1 is built by American defense contractor General Atomics and has historically been operated mainly by the U.S. Air Force and the CIA.
The incident follows a series of Iranian operations against U.S. unmanned naval systems in the Gulf, as the conflict, now in its seventh month, shows few signs of abating and diplomatic efforts over the strategic waterway remain stalled. On Sunday, President Donald Trump said the United States could continue its campaign against Iran and seize control of its oil, comparing the situation to the deal Washington reached with Venezuela earlier this year.
“Weâll ultimately get out (of the war), unless we decide to stay and keep the oil like Venezuela,” Trump said of the Iran conflict at the Irish Open golf championship in Ireland. He added that U.S. revenue from the Venezuela arrangement, which gave Washington access to roughly a fifth of Venezuelaâs oil reserves, has “paid for the war many times.”
Under the August agreement, Venezuela ceded majority U.S. control of more than 65 billion barrels of oil reserves â more than double Americaâs own reserves â in exchange for $209 billion for Venezuelaâs state treasury. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said the deal would also bring close to $100 billion in private investment to reinvigorate the Venezuelan economy.
On Sunday, Trump said he expects the sevenâmonth Iran war to end this year, possibly after the November midterm elections, and insisted that gasoline prices would “drop like a rock” once it does. He said he would only make the “right deal,” adding that Tehran has been “calling constantly” for peace talks, a claim Iran has previously dismissed.
Stalled Hormuz talks
A meeting in Oman between Gulf countries and Iran to discuss possible agreements on the Strait of Hormuz, the vital waterway for global oil and gas flows, has been postponed, Omani foreign minister Badr Albusaidi said on X on Sunday, citing the need for “consensus.” Officials from Iran and Gulf nations had been expected to meet on Monday and sign an agreement establishing an IranâOman shipping route through the Strait of Hormuz, though no direct talks between the U.S. and Iran were ongoing.
The Strait of Hormuz has been subjected to an Iranian and later U.S. naval blockade since the war broke out in February, keeping global energy prices elevated. A June accord between Washington and Tehran faltered over disagreements about the artery, and a recent offensive by Yemenâs Houthi rebels has given the Tehranâaligned group leverage over a second critical waterway, the Bab elâMandeb.
Ships deemed nonâcompliant are regularly targeted by Iranian strikes, while the U.S. periodically bombs the Iranian coastline to contest the Islamic Republicâs control of the strait.
Oil prices rose past $100 a barrel again for the first time since May and climbed further on Monday after Saudi Arabia shut a key EastâWest energy pipeline following damage from Iraqi drones. U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures were up 2.3% to $102.39 per barrel. Brent crude, the international benchmark, traded 2.4% higher to $107.11 a barrel.
Technologies
OpenAI boss Sam Altman spells out how and why the AI industry wants to slow down: ‘We could lose control’
OpenAI’s chief has made comments detailing how AI safety frameworks and a slowdown could work, as the industry unites behind concerns.
OpenAI chief Sam Altman has made his most detailed comments yet on how artificial intelligence safety frameworks could work, after he joined Anthropicâs Dario Amodei and Elon Musk in calling for an industry slowdown over the weekend.
Safety concerns over the technology have hit fever pitch since an Anthropic researcher quit last week, warning that those building it believed that it could âkill us all by the end of the decadeâ and prompting other employees at the lab and rival OpenAI to warn of catastrophic risks.
AI bosses have since shown a rare display of unity, with both Altman and Musk on Saturday backing an essay from Amodei that urged AI companies to slow how quickly they improve their most advanced models.
AI stocks were down Monday as investors digested the comments. U.S. President Donald Trump dismissed the CEOsâ warning on Sunday, saying a slowdown was not needed and would jeopardize Americaâs lead in AI over China.
Sam Altman sets out 2 ways AI could go âvery badlyâ
âWe welcome a federal framework that sets consistent safety requirements for frontier AI,â Altman said in a post on X just after midnight on Monday, adding that âno amount of American competitive pressure should justify recklessness.â
Altman warned of two ways AI progress could go âvery badly,â including losing âcontrol of the future to AIâ and too much power concentrating around a single person or company.
Meanwhile, lawmakers in Washington are scrambling to address calls for safeguards.
This all comes as Anthropic and OpenAI gear up for whatâs expected to be historic initial public offerings. Altman ruled out going public in 2026 in an interview with Fortune published Saturday.
Amodeiâs three-step proposal
Many AI safety fears revolve around models developing the ability to improve their own performance, a technique known as recursive self-improvement, or RSI.
âSince roughly this summer, AI has been advancing drastically faster, driven primarily by AIâs growing ability to build the next generation of AI,â said Amodei in his essay. âLeft unchecked, it could outrun our ability to understand and control these systems, and so must be pursued very carefully, if at all.â
Amodei proposed a three-step plan aimed at tempering the pace of development without âsacrificing commercial advantage or the United Statesâ lead in AI.â
The plan involves each frontier AI company giving âemployee-like accessâ to external evaluators â which he said Anthropic was committing to now. Amodei also called for frontier AI labs to establish common safety standards, limit the rate of unchecked AI progress and attempt to coordinate efforts globally.
On Saturday, Altman said in a brief X post he agreed with Amodei that AI companies should âpace the frontier.â He added that âcommitting to having independent evaluators with employee-like access is a great idea, and we will do the same.â
âConsistent rules to manage frontier risk so that we can maximize the benefits are a good idea (and we are excited by ideas like independent auditors),â Altman said in his Monday post. But, he added, âWhen we talk about âpacing,â we do not mean âstopping.â Progress has been rapid and will continue to be.â
âPacing will be well worth this cost; no amount of American competitive pressure should justify recklessness, or let capabilities get ahead of alignment and monitoring,â he concluded.
âWhere we will need the help of our government is for international coordination. But first we should do what we can ourselves.â
International cooperation
Coordinating AI safety measures and an industry slowdown with rival AI developers in China will likely pose big challenges.
The U.S. and China remain locked in a battle for AI supremacy, with tensions ratcheting up as Chinese models have become more advanced and their global adoption grows.
Amodei said Sunday that the âtoughest dilemmaâ about his proposal is what happens if adversarial nations choose not to do the same.
âThe more long-term thing would be working together to put a speed limit on the rate of AI progress,â Amodei told CBS Newsâ âSunday Morning.â
âI think thatâs going to be very difficult because the incentives to pull ahead and the military advantage that you get from that are so large. And honestly, I donât know if itâs possible, but we should try.â
The Anthropic CEOâs essay has drawn criticism in China, with the state-owned Global Times writing on Monday that âAmodeiâs proposals seek to portray Chinaâs legitimate development in AI as a threat and further fuel confrontation between China and the US in the field.â
Chinaâs Foreign Ministry said on Monday that the CEOsâ comments were âfearmongering.â
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