Technologies

This Is What Might Happen if an Asteroid Crashed Into Your Town

An online simulator lets you launch an asteroid at a locale of your choosing and ponder the potential outcome.

If an asteroid made of pure gold, with a diameter of 2,600 feet and blasting at 77,000 miles per hour, came in at an angle of 48 degrees and hit New York City’s Upper East Side, aka around where I live, I unfortunately now know what would happen.

Myself and 6,363,353 people would be vaporized within the space rock’s resulting crater, a massive chasm over half a mile deep. The shard would release more energy than the last volcanic eruption of Yellowstone, a colossal disaster that, thousands of years ago, spewed ash, magma and debris far enough to cover most of the continental United States.

Or at least that’s what I learned from an asteroid simulation website this afternoon while sipping on a cup of coffee.

The Asteroid Launcher is a free, data-driven concept created by Neal Agarwal, a developer widely known by his online persona: neal.fun. Agarwal’s goal is basically to blend immense arrays of data and interesting mental dilemmas to form clever, interactive online thought experiments, like this one that tells you what kind of devastation would follow an asteroid smashing into your town.

“The main inspiration,” Agarwal told me over email, “was definitely growing up watching movies like Deep Impact and Armageddon! I’ve always wanted to have an online tool that would let me test out different impact scenarios and see the effects.”

But of course, the key here with Asteroid Launcher lies in Agarwal’s pseudonym.

There are thankfully no known significant impact threats for the next hundred years or more, according to NASA — and, worst case, the agency is well on its way toward generating a sort of asteroid defense system with the resounding success of its DART mission, which took place earlier this year.

Still, it doesn’t hurt to cater to our intrusive thoughts once in a while. Just for fun.

Peruse Agarwal’s projects and you’ll find an awesome array of rabbit holes to get lost in.

The Size of Space progressively presents you with larger and larger objects, starting with an astronaut and making its way through stars so enormous they make our sun look like a feeble yellow pom-pom. Spend Bill Gates’ Money offers you $100 billion to spend on items ranging from a 12 pack of Coca-Cola all the way to a literal Boeing 747 commercial airplane. It shows you how much money multibillionaires are working with day to day.

And my personal favorite, Absurd Trolley Problems takes you on an illustrative, ethical journey based on English philosopher Philippa Foot’s fictional scenario where an onlooker has the choice to save five people in danger of being hit by a trolley — except the only way to save them is by killing one person in their stead. The hard part about this isn’t so much the decisions, but the fact that you should, hypothetically, remain consistent in every one of those decisions.

“I’ve kept a big ideas list since I was 16, and have recently passed 1,000 project ideas written down (most of them terrible),” Agarwal said. “The ideas can come from everywhere, from books and movies to a conversation with a friend. I think the important thing is writing them down and being as open as possible to new and weird ideas. Sometimes two to three bad ideas can combine and form a great project.”

Which brings us to Agarwal’s latest endeavor: Asteroid Launcher.

You begin by designing your own asteroid, entering a material, rock diameter, speed and impact angle. Then, you can select any location on a realistic map to the left of the screen. All that remains, at that point, is to click a giant button that says LAUNCH ASTEROID.

Boom.

You arrive at a page that tells you, theoretically, what you’ve just done to your location of choice.

These results are surprisingly detailed, as Agarwal embedded his code with asteroid information gleaned from academic science publications, such as a doctoral thesis about asteroid impact risk and a peer-reviewed population vulnerability model authored by experts from NASA, Lancaster University and the University of Southampton.

However, it does appear that some question the results of Asteroid Launcher — one scientist, for instance, tweeted his preference for the more old-school Earth Impact Effects Program to satisfy doomsday cravings.

Though, to that end, Agarwal says the Earth Impact Effects Program uses the same equations as Asteroid Launcher because both are based on a research paper written by Gareth Collins, an asteroid impact expert at Imperial College London. “They’ll give pretty much the same results,” he explained, noting that Clemens Rumpf, an asteroid risk expert who formerly worked at NASA, also contributed to his project.

“The goal of neal.fun is to bring back the weird and fun internet!” Agarwal said. “I grew up at a time when the internet was full of strange and fun flash games and experiments, and watched that all slowly go away as social media took over. Now the web is finally becoming powerful enough again to create fun digital experiences, and I’m excited to keep exploring the potential with new projects.”

On Asteroid Launcher, once you’ve pressed the big red button, scroll down a little, and you’ll catch far more than fatalities spurred by your asteroid design.

Agarwal tells you how many gigatons of TNT your explosion equaled, how many people would receive second-degree burns if your asteroid was closer to a huge fireball, the radius within which peoples’ eardrums would rupture from the shock wave and within which homes would be completely leveled from wind speeds upon impact.

It’s darkly obsessive to check out as many asteroid designs as you can. Immediately after making my dream gold impactor, I plugged in the stats of the asteroid that NASA’s DART spacecraft punched into in an attempt to change the relatively small space rock’s orbit around a larger hunk of space rock.

I couldn’t get things to be completely accurate, because this is so theoretical, but here’s what I came up with.

Dimorphos is considered to be made of “rubble,” aka a bunch of materials, so for material, I went with generic stone. It’s actually about 525 feet in diameter, but Asteroid Launcher requires some rounding. I put in 500 feet. As for speed at time of impact, a parameter we don’t know, I popped in the speed at which the DART spacecraft hit the rock, because, well, why not? That came out to something like 14,400 miles per hour, which had to be rounded as well. I set the location to London and angle to 90 degrees for no reason whatsoever.

Here’s what we got for results — they’re much less shocking than my first ridiculous, gleaming monster asteroid.

My next plan was to input the parameters of the dinosaur-killer asteroid, Chicxulub. But get this: It was so gigantic it didn’t even fit in the diameter section.

“Asteroid impact science is still an evolving field and not everything is known yet,” Agarwal said. “Generally the larger the asteroid, the more uncertain we are about the effects.”

Technologies

Trump Maintains US‑Iran Negotiations Continue Amid Tehran’s Denials of Duplicity

President Trump insists that US‑Iran talks are ongoing despite Tehran’s denial of any negotiation plans, while warning that only a deal or total surrender will allow passage through the Strait of Hormuz. Conflicting statements from both sides have heightened uncertainty as the conflict enters its sixth month.

On Monday, President Donald Trump asserted that negotiations between the United States and Iran are still taking place, even after Tehran stated it has no intention of engaging in direct talks with Washington.

In a fiery Truth Social post, Trump labeled Iran’s leaders “unbelievably duplicitous,” claiming they are lying about ongoing peace talks “whether Iran wants to admit it or not.” He repeated his assertion that the United States completely controls the Strait of Hormuz, despite maritime traffic through the crucial route lingering at only a small fraction of pre‑conflict levels.

He wrote, “Nothing reaches Iran unless we allow it, and nothing will pass unless a deal—or total surrender—is achieved.”

Earlier that day, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmail Baghaei told reporters there is no imminent plan for U.S.–Iran negotiations, contradicting Trump’s earlier comment that talks would resume Monday afternoon. Baghaei added that Iran’s only current discussions are with Oman concerning the Strait of Hormuz.

The conflicting statements have heightened uncertainty over the peace‑talk process and the broader conflict, now in its sixth month.

Trump’s assertion about new negotiations came a day after he said on Truth Social that he had agreed to cancel a massive strike against Iran “subject to being able to rapidly make a DEAL.” He said in the same post that Iran and other Middle Eastern countries had asked him to hold off on that attack because “the perimeters of a deal has been agreed to.”

Trump has claimed dozens of times throughout the more‑than‑five‑month‑long war that a deal is at hand. No permanent deal has been signed, and a temporary ceasefire reached in June has fallen apart.

Trump has also repeatedly threatened to launch devastating strikes against Iran before backing off. After the latest example, oil prices on Monday fell and stocks surged.

BMI, a research unit of Fitch Solutions, said in a note Monday that a broader diplomatic understanding on reopening the Strait of Hormuz is still achievable this quarter, while raising the probability of its escalation scenario to 35% from 25%, citing mounting military, diplomatic and economic signs of rising U.S.-Iran tensions.

“Diplomatic progress is likely to be punctuated by periodic military flare-ups, while miscalculation by either side could trigger a renewed escalation,” BMI analysts wrote in a note. The firm said the key issue to watch is the future governance of the strait, as the Iran-Oman talks — potentially backed by Gulf states, China and the U.S. — point to efforts to build a post-conflict shipping framework.

Shipping risks persist even as diplomacy appears to be advancing. The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations Centre said it received a report of an incident 20 nautical miles (23 miles) northeast of Khasab, Oman — at the mouth of the strait — with a tanker’s master reporting an explosion in close proximity to the vessel at about 20:37 UTC Sunday (4:37 pm ET). The vessel and crew were safe and authorities are investigating, UKMTO said, advising ships to transit with caution.

The proposal Trump announced over the weekend calls for the U.S. and Iran to return to negotiations and continue ironing out some of the thorny issues that had derailed diplomatic efforts, according to The Associated Press, citing a regional official involved in the mediation efforts.

The official said the proposal also includes a reopening of the Hormuz Strait and halting attacks across the region, including by Iranian-backed militias in Iraq on the Arab Gulf countries and Jordan.

The U.S., for its part, will end its naval blockade on Iran and allow Tehran to export its oil, the official said, adding that no deal has been reached, although the mediation efforts remained underway.

Trump’s weekend reversal has lowered the temperature after days of escalating attacks across the Gulf. Kuwait said Saturday that Iranian forces launched a wave of drones within its airspace, with its military destroying multiple aircraft after Iran targeted critical infrastructure in the country’s north.

A parallel track with Muscat is also advancing. Iranian diplomats said Tehran was close to reaching a new arrangement with Oman to manage shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a deal critical to preventing the war from escalating further, according to the Financial Times.

Iranian officials said negotiations over future management of the Hormuz Strait with Oman, which sits on the opposite shore of the waterway, are in their final stages. The agreed shipping route would be different from those used before, according to Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson, Baghaei, adding that the new route was separate from the issue of the strait’s reopening or continued closure.

Technologies

Oil Prices Slide as Trump Halts Planned Iran Strike

Oil prices dropped after Trump cancelled a planned strike on Iran, with WTI down about 5% and Brent near 5% lower. He said the move followed requests from Tehran and regional allies for a pause while a deal shaping the Strait of Hormuz and Iran’s nuclear program is negotiated.

Oil prices fell on Monday after President Donald Trump announced he had cancelled a planned strike on Iran. WTI futures dropped roughly 5% to $80.34 a barrel, while Brent slipped about 4.7% to $83.77 a barrel.

Trump said early Sunday he called off the strike after Iran and several Middle Eastern nations asked him to hold off, noting that the outlines of a deal had been agreed upon. He added that the prospective accord would entail the immediate, full opening of the Strait of Hormuz and an end to Iran’s nuclear ambitions, according to his Truth Social post.

The president had been considering another round of strikes as diplomatic hopes waned since the conflict began on February 28. He said the U.S. and Iran would meet for talks on Monday, but Iran denied any scheduled negotiations with Washington, citing PressTV. Iran’s foreign‑ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei clarified that Tehran was only discussing shipping routes through the Strait of Hormuz with Oman. In a follow‑up Truth Social message, Trump insisted that, regardless of Iran’s acknowledgment, the United States is indeed discussing a solution to a long‑standing problem created by Iran.

Technologies

Oil Prices Drop as Trump Cancels Planned Attack on Iran

Oil prices fell sharply after President Trump announced the cancellation of a planned strike on Iran, citing a new deal that would open the Hormuz Strait and end Iran’s nuclear threat.

Oil prices fell sharply on Monday after President Donald Trump announced that he had called off a planned strike on Iran.

West Texas Intermediate futures, the U.S. benchmark, slipped roughly 5% to close at $80.34 per barrel, while Brent crude, the international benchmark, declined 4.7% to settle at $83.77 a barrel.

Trump made the announcement early Sunday, saying he had canceled the strike following requests from Tehran and other Middle Eastern countries.

In a Truth Social post, he wrote: “We have just been asked by Iran, and other Middle Eastern Countries, to hold off any attack in that the perimeters of a deal has been agreed to.”

The president indicated that the proposed agreement would include the immediate, complete, and total opening of the Hormuz Strait, as well as an end to Iran’s nuclear threat.

Trump had been weighing additional strikes amid diminishing prospects for a diplomatic resolution to the conflict that began on Feb. 28. He stated that the U.S. and Iran would hold negotiations on Monday.

Tehran denied that talks were planned with Washington, according to state news outlet PressTV.

Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei said Tehran was only holding talks with Oman regarding the routes ships can use through the Strait of Hormuz.

In a subsequent Truth Social post, Trump added that whether “Iran wants to admit it or not, we are, in fact, talking of a solution to a problem that they have caused for decades.”