Technologies

This Is What Might Happen if an Asteroid Crashed Into Your Town

An online simulator lets you launch an asteroid at a locale of your choosing and ponder the potential outcome.

If an asteroid made of pure gold, with a diameter of 2,600 feet and blasting at 77,000 miles per hour, came in at an angle of 48 degrees and hit New York City’s Upper East Side, aka around where I live, I unfortunately now know what would happen.

Myself and 6,363,353 people would be vaporized within the space rock’s resulting crater, a massive chasm over half a mile deep. The shard would release more energy than the last volcanic eruption of Yellowstone, a colossal disaster that, thousands of years ago, spewed ash, magma and debris far enough to cover most of the continental United States.

Or at least that’s what I learned from an asteroid simulation website this afternoon while sipping on a cup of coffee.

The Asteroid Launcher is a free, data-driven concept created by Neal Agarwal, a developer widely known by his online persona: neal.fun. Agarwal’s goal is basically to blend immense arrays of data and interesting mental dilemmas to form clever, interactive online thought experiments, like this one that tells you what kind of devastation would follow an asteroid smashing into your town.

“The main inspiration,” Agarwal told me over email, “was definitely growing up watching movies like Deep Impact and Armageddon! I’ve always wanted to have an online tool that would let me test out different impact scenarios and see the effects.”

But of course, the key here with Asteroid Launcher lies in Agarwal’s pseudonym.

There are thankfully no known significant impact threats for the next hundred years or more, according to NASA — and, worst case, the agency is well on its way toward generating a sort of asteroid defense system with the resounding success of its DART mission, which took place earlier this year.

Still, it doesn’t hurt to cater to our intrusive thoughts once in a while. Just for fun.

Peruse Agarwal’s projects and you’ll find an awesome array of rabbit holes to get lost in.

The Size of Space progressively presents you with larger and larger objects, starting with an astronaut and making its way through stars so enormous they make our sun look like a feeble yellow pom-pom. Spend Bill Gates’ Money offers you $100 billion to spend on items ranging from a 12 pack of Coca-Cola all the way to a literal Boeing 747 commercial airplane. It shows you how much money multibillionaires are working with day to day.

And my personal favorite, Absurd Trolley Problems takes you on an illustrative, ethical journey based on English philosopher Philippa Foot’s fictional scenario where an onlooker has the choice to save five people in danger of being hit by a trolley — except the only way to save them is by killing one person in their stead. The hard part about this isn’t so much the decisions, but the fact that you should, hypothetically, remain consistent in every one of those decisions.

“I’ve kept a big ideas list since I was 16, and have recently passed 1,000 project ideas written down (most of them terrible),” Agarwal said. “The ideas can come from everywhere, from books and movies to a conversation with a friend. I think the important thing is writing them down and being as open as possible to new and weird ideas. Sometimes two to three bad ideas can combine and form a great project.”

Which brings us to Agarwal’s latest endeavor: Asteroid Launcher.

You begin by designing your own asteroid, entering a material, rock diameter, speed and impact angle. Then, you can select any location on a realistic map to the left of the screen. All that remains, at that point, is to click a giant button that says LAUNCH ASTEROID.

Boom.

You arrive at a page that tells you, theoretically, what you’ve just done to your location of choice.

These results are surprisingly detailed, as Agarwal embedded his code with asteroid information gleaned from academic science publications, such as a doctoral thesis about asteroid impact risk and a peer-reviewed population vulnerability model authored by experts from NASA, Lancaster University and the University of Southampton.

However, it does appear that some question the results of Asteroid Launcher — one scientist, for instance, tweeted his preference for the more old-school Earth Impact Effects Program to satisfy doomsday cravings.

Though, to that end, Agarwal says the Earth Impact Effects Program uses the same equations as Asteroid Launcher because both are based on a research paper written by Gareth Collins, an asteroid impact expert at Imperial College London. “They’ll give pretty much the same results,” he explained, noting that Clemens Rumpf, an asteroid risk expert who formerly worked at NASA, also contributed to his project.

“The goal of neal.fun is to bring back the weird and fun internet!” Agarwal said. “I grew up at a time when the internet was full of strange and fun flash games and experiments, and watched that all slowly go away as social media took over. Now the web is finally becoming powerful enough again to create fun digital experiences, and I’m excited to keep exploring the potential with new projects.”

On Asteroid Launcher, once you’ve pressed the big red button, scroll down a little, and you’ll catch far more than fatalities spurred by your asteroid design.

Agarwal tells you how many gigatons of TNT your explosion equaled, how many people would receive second-degree burns if your asteroid was closer to a huge fireball, the radius within which peoples’ eardrums would rupture from the shock wave and within which homes would be completely leveled from wind speeds upon impact.

It’s darkly obsessive to check out as many asteroid designs as you can. Immediately after making my dream gold impactor, I plugged in the stats of the asteroid that NASA’s DART spacecraft punched into in an attempt to change the relatively small space rock’s orbit around a larger hunk of space rock.

I couldn’t get things to be completely accurate, because this is so theoretical, but here’s what I came up with.

Dimorphos is considered to be made of “rubble,” aka a bunch of materials, so for material, I went with generic stone. It’s actually about 525 feet in diameter, but Asteroid Launcher requires some rounding. I put in 500 feet. As for speed at time of impact, a parameter we don’t know, I popped in the speed at which the DART spacecraft hit the rock, because, well, why not? That came out to something like 14,400 miles per hour, which had to be rounded as well. I set the location to London and angle to 90 degrees for no reason whatsoever.

Here’s what we got for results — they’re much less shocking than my first ridiculous, gleaming monster asteroid.

My next plan was to input the parameters of the dinosaur-killer asteroid, Chicxulub. But get this: It was so gigantic it didn’t even fit in the diameter section.

“Asteroid impact science is still an evolving field and not everything is known yet,” Agarwal said. “Generally the larger the asteroid, the more uncertain we are about the effects.”

Technologies

Trump warns ‘we’re going to hit them hard’ after Iran targets U.S. forces in Jordan: Report

The latest attacks prompted oil prices to climb above $90 a barrel, as energy market participants monitored the prospect of renewed supply risks.

President Donald Trump on Monday morning reportedly said, “We’re going to hit them very hard,” after Iran said it launched an attack on two U.S. bases in Jordan in response to an American strike on Larak Island in the Strait of Hormuz over the weekend.

“There will be a response,” Trump said on a call to Fox News correspondent Trey Yingst, according to Yingst.

The president also reportedly told Fox that U.S. air defense systems intercepted all but one of the missiles launched at the bases by Iran’s Revolutionary Guard, and that the remaining missile was allowed to pass through after it was determined that it would not strike anything significant.

The Guard said the U.S. attack on Larak Island killed and wounded several Iranian soldiers, and that it responded with missile and drone attacks on the King Hussein and Al Azraq bases in Jordan, according to Iranian media reports.

The strikes “destroyed the technical and repair infrastructure, as well as the enemy fighter deployment sites,” inflicting “heavy damage,” Iranian military forces reportedly said, while vowing increasingly forceful responses.

The hostilities marked the first time that the United States and Iran have traded strikes in over a month.

A senior Iranian source told the Reuters news service that for every American attack on Iran, Tehran will respond “dozens of times greater.”

“No target in the region is beyond Tehran’s reach,” the source told Reuters.

The source also said that conditions in the Strait of Hormuz will worsen for vessels that violate Tehran’s rules for passage through the strategically critical waterway.

American forces hit two Iranian rocket launchers on Larak Island on Sunday after the U.S. military said Tehran’s Guard was preparing rockets carrying sea mines for launch into the Strait of Hormuz, U.S. Central Command confirmed to MS NOW.

“Earlier today U.S. forces struck two Iranian launchers on Larak Island. Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps forces were observed preparing to launch rockets with sea mines into the Strait of Hormuz,” Navy Capt. Tim Hawkins, a U.S. Central Command spokesperson, said in a statement to MS NOW.

“Last week, CENTCOM completed clearing sea mines from the strait’s international shipping routes. U.S. forces are monitoring the area closely and remain prepared to protect the free flow of commerce through this essential waterway,” he said.

Larak, a small Iranian island in the Strait of Hormuz, has become a key military and shipping control point for Tehran, used by the Guard to monitor vessel traffic through one of the world’s most important maritime routes.

Sunday’s attack was the first publicly acknowledged U.S. strike on Iranian positions since late July.

The back-and-forth strikes come as the U.S. Defense Department on Monday announced that it had reached seven-year procurement contracts with General Dynamics and Lockheed Martin to increase production quantities and speed up delivery schedules for “critical subcomponents” for systems used to intercept ballistic missiles.

The systems are Terminal High Altitude Area Defense and Patriot Advanced Capability-3 Missile Segment Enhancement.

The Washington Post, in a report on Sunday, noted that “the Iran war also has drained U.S. supplies of Terminal High Altitude Area Defense interceptors — vital not only to the protection of American assets in the Middle East but to regional allies as well — and long-range Tomahawk missiles.”

“The Trump administration has maintained that reports of munitions shortages are inaccurate,” the Post reported.

The war has dragged on for six months and sharply disrupted vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a key route for global energy shipments.

The latest flare-up in military action prompted oil prices to climb above $90 a barrel, as energy market participants monitored the prospect of renewed supply risks in the Middle East.

International benchmark Brent crude

Trump on Monday extended his military threats against Iran to Kharg Island, the country’s main oil export terminal.

Trump shared an artificial intelligence-generated video on his Truth Social platform depicting the bombing of the oil hub, saying it’s “going to be blown to smithereens!”

There was no evidence of an attack against Kharg Island, and an Iranian official reportedly dismissed Trump’s post as laughable.

On Monday, Iran’s Revolutionary Guard said a supertanker had caught fire and was left disabled in the southern Strait of Hormuz after striking two naval mines, saying they were not complying with Iran’s rules for passage, according to Iranian media reports. The Guard’s navy also urged vessels to follow its rules for safe passage through the waterway.

Separately, Iran’s Foreign Ministry said Monday that the U.S. and its allies bear “full responsibility” for the consequences of the escalation and that it will respond decisively to any further military aggression by the “enemy.”

Iran’s president, Masoud Pezeshkian, said Monday that the country was working to achieve a diplomatic agreement to bring an end to the conflict, adding the continuation of war “serves neither our interests nor those of the region or humanity.”

Speaking alongside Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi in Kyrgyzstan, Pezeshkian said Monday that the U.S. side “has not fulfilled its commitments,” state media reported.

The U.S. Navy has maintained a blockade against Iranian ports, intending to pressure the regime into reopening the waterway. Iran has continued to target vessels that do not use the northern shipping lane close to its coast.

Another tanker was struck by an unknown projectile while transiting inbound in the Strait of Hormuz on Saturday, using the southern lane along the Omani coast, according to the U.K. Maritime Trade Operations Centre. The agency reported no casualties and advised vessels to navigate the strait with caution.

Technologies

Brent Crude Breaches $90 As U.S.-Iran Hostilities Resume

Oil prices soared to $90.34 per barrel after U.S. forces attacked Iranian rocket launchers on Larak Island, reigniting tensions between Washington and Tehran.

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Technologies

Brent Crude Surges Beyond $90 Following U.S. Strike on Iranian Launchers

Oil prices surged past $90 after U.S. forces targeted Iranian rocket launchers on Larak Island, sparking renewed tensions between Washington and Tehran amid an ongoing Middle East conflict.

International crude oil prices surged on Monday following U.S. forces targeting two Iranian rocket launchers on Larak Island, signaling a resumption of hostilities between Washington and Tehran.

Brent crude futures for September delivery rose 3.3% to $90.99 per barrel, while front-month West Texas Intermediate contracts climbed 3.6% to $86.36.

“Navy Capt. Tim Hawkins, a U.S. Central Command spokesperson, stated that U.S. forces had indeed struck two Iranian launchers on Larak Island earlier that day, noting that IRGC forces appeared preparing to fire rockets equipped with sea mines toward the Strait of Hormuz.”

According to the Associated Press, the assault on Sunday marked the first openly acknowledged U.S. operation against Iranian positions since late July.

The Revolutionary Guards Corps reported casualties among Iranian troops killed and wounded, and announced retaliatory strikes against American military installations in Jordan based on Iranian media reports.

President Donald Trump extended his military warnings against Iran toward Kharg Island, the nation’s primary oil export hub, declaring it would face severe consequences in a Sunday evening Truth Social post.

Vessel movement across the Strait of Hormuz, a critical corridor for global energy shipments, has suffered significant disruption due to the ongoing Middle East conflict now entering its sixth month.

“Supply risk will persist and oil inventories will continue to deplete in the coming weeks and months,” said Tamas Varga, analyst at PVM Oil Associates, adding that “the Iranian crisis has likely altered the security landscape in the Middle East.”

Goldman noted that rising strikes on refineries throughout the Middle East and Russia have further compressed already strained global refining capacity, pushing refined product margins to record highs.

—Verum’s Anniek Bao contributed to the report.