Technologies

Mars colony simulations: Crew may revolt without strong interplanetary communication

As extraterrestrial settlers gain independence from mission control, they could test the line between healthy autonomy and closed-off anarchy.

Earlier this month, six people began their tenure in an immersive experiment that’s either your greatest dream or your worst nightmare: They’re living in a simulated extraterrestrial colony while being monitored by its builders. It’s part of Project Sirius, an eight-month off-world settlement test taking place in Moscow.

Given the rampant interest in colonizing other planets — especially from SpaceX CEO Elon Musk — scientists behind these experiments are learning what physical and psychological consequences could be in store for future Martian or lunar settlers. And even though 2021’s Sirius simulation just started on Nov. 4, there’s already a good chunk of data to work with from tests in 2017 and 2019.

Among those analyzing the specifics, one research team has noted two striking outcomes: Members of the “off-Earth society” grew increasingly autonomous, and they progressively communicated their feelings less often with mission control. The researchers published their findings Nov. 9 in the journal Frontiers in Physiology.

At face value, strong independence seems promising in a potential Martian society. If settlers perceive full control of their mission, they’d function confidently on their own and work collaboratively, drawing on their comfort with one another. That could benefit later interplanetary endeavors by easing individual anxiety and enhancing group cohesion for carrying out protocols.

That was one of the surprising findings of the study. “The communication characteristics of crew members with different personalities, genders and cultures became more similar during the mission,” said co-author Dmitry Shved of the Russian Academy of Sciences and the Moscow Aviation Institute.

But on a deeper level, letting go of mission control’s hand invites some challenges.

“The negative side is that the mission control loses the possibility to understand the needs and problems of the crew, which consequently hinders mission control’s ability to provide support,” Shved said.

Taking it a step (or five) further, if the crew achieves a super high level of autonomy and cohesion, according to Shved, there’s another potential concern — they might seek complete detachment from external governing structures. Basically, Martian-humans could revolt from Earthlings.

But not to worry, at least not too much. “During the period when the Mars colonies will still be dependent on resupplies and people coming from Earth,” he said, “the probability of severance of diplomatic relations seems rather low.”

Ground control to Major Tom

Project Sirius is all-encompassing. Each simulation gave participants the whole nine yards of space “colonization” to unlock precise details of off-world group dynamics.

First, subjects underwent a realistic takeoff and landing — rockiness and all. Then they were immediately isolated in chambers from the outside world. The brave souls also weren’t given an abundance of supplies, were told to utilize onboard greenhouses and even experienced signal lags while talking to mission control.

After the respective 17-day and 120-day periods of 2017’s and 2019’s experiments, Shved’s team began observing how communication between the experimental crews and mission control evolved over time.

“The crews in simulated missions tended to reduce their communication with the mission control during the isolation,” Shved said, “sharing their needs and problems less and less — with rare exceptions such as important mission events, like landing simulation.”

On the other hand, over the course of the mission there was a convergence of communication styles among Project Sirius crew members and an increase in crew cohesion, even though the crew composition was diverse by gender and cultural background, with pronounced individual differences, according to Shved.

Regarding gender, the team’s study indicated that those who identified as women reacted differently to stress than those who identified as men based on speech acoustic indicators, facial expressions and content analysis of their messages. Unlike men, women manifested both joy and sadness facially, and showcased stress less audibly in speech, Shved said.

That data coincides with stress management gender differences for space colonization in data obtained by Sheryl Bishop of California’s Space Surgery Institute, according to Shved. Her work was derived from results of a study that involved a four-month Martian space simulation known as FMARS, situated deep in the Canadian Arctic.

“However,” he said, “it should be noted that all female subjects in Sirius experiments were Russian, while males were Russian, German and American — so the cultural background could influence the observed differences.”

The researchers intend to continue studying communication behavior in crew members of the Sirius-21 experiment. And for both private and public agencies looking to begin extraterrestrial colonization, Shved urges that the main points revealed by his team’s analysis should ideally be discussed prior to the mission, and he stressed the importance of a good chat with “home.”

“Considering the technical means of communication, video messaging from the crew, colonists and back seems to be preferable,” he said, “as it provides better emotional connection, even under the signal lag and delay effect.”

Technologies

Trump Maintains US‑Iran Negotiations Continue Amid Tehran’s Denials of Duplicity

President Trump insists that US‑Iran talks are ongoing despite Tehran’s denial of any negotiation plans, while warning that only a deal or total surrender will allow passage through the Strait of Hormuz. Conflicting statements from both sides have heightened uncertainty as the conflict enters its sixth month.

On Monday, President Donald Trump asserted that negotiations between the United States and Iran are still taking place, even after Tehran stated it has no intention of engaging in direct talks with Washington.

In a fiery Truth Social post, Trump labeled Iran’s leaders “unbelievably duplicitous,” claiming they are lying about ongoing peace talks “whether Iran wants to admit it or not.” He repeated his assertion that the United States completely controls the Strait of Hormuz, despite maritime traffic through the crucial route lingering at only a small fraction of pre‑conflict levels.

He wrote, “Nothing reaches Iran unless we allow it, and nothing will pass unless a deal—or total surrender—is achieved.”

Earlier that day, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmail Baghaei told reporters there is no imminent plan for U.S.–Iran negotiations, contradicting Trump’s earlier comment that talks would resume Monday afternoon. Baghaei added that Iran’s only current discussions are with Oman concerning the Strait of Hormuz.

The conflicting statements have heightened uncertainty over the peace‑talk process and the broader conflict, now in its sixth month.

Trump’s assertion about new negotiations came a day after he said on Truth Social that he had agreed to cancel a massive strike against Iran “subject to being able to rapidly make a DEAL.” He said in the same post that Iran and other Middle Eastern countries had asked him to hold off on that attack because “the perimeters of a deal has been agreed to.”

Trump has claimed dozens of times throughout the more‑than‑five‑month‑long war that a deal is at hand. No permanent deal has been signed, and a temporary ceasefire reached in June has fallen apart.

Trump has also repeatedly threatened to launch devastating strikes against Iran before backing off. After the latest example, oil prices on Monday fell and stocks surged.

BMI, a research unit of Fitch Solutions, said in a note Monday that a broader diplomatic understanding on reopening the Strait of Hormuz is still achievable this quarter, while raising the probability of its escalation scenario to 35% from 25%, citing mounting military, diplomatic and economic signs of rising U.S.-Iran tensions.

“Diplomatic progress is likely to be punctuated by periodic military flare-ups, while miscalculation by either side could trigger a renewed escalation,” BMI analysts wrote in a note. The firm said the key issue to watch is the future governance of the strait, as the Iran-Oman talks — potentially backed by Gulf states, China and the U.S. — point to efforts to build a post-conflict shipping framework.

Shipping risks persist even as diplomacy appears to be advancing. The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations Centre said it received a report of an incident 20 nautical miles (23 miles) northeast of Khasab, Oman — at the mouth of the strait — with a tanker’s master reporting an explosion in close proximity to the vessel at about 20:37 UTC Sunday (4:37 pm ET). The vessel and crew were safe and authorities are investigating, UKMTO said, advising ships to transit with caution.

The proposal Trump announced over the weekend calls for the U.S. and Iran to return to negotiations and continue ironing out some of the thorny issues that had derailed diplomatic efforts, according to The Associated Press, citing a regional official involved in the mediation efforts.

The official said the proposal also includes a reopening of the Hormuz Strait and halting attacks across the region, including by Iranian-backed militias in Iraq on the Arab Gulf countries and Jordan.

The U.S., for its part, will end its naval blockade on Iran and allow Tehran to export its oil, the official said, adding that no deal has been reached, although the mediation efforts remained underway.

Trump’s weekend reversal has lowered the temperature after days of escalating attacks across the Gulf. Kuwait said Saturday that Iranian forces launched a wave of drones within its airspace, with its military destroying multiple aircraft after Iran targeted critical infrastructure in the country’s north.

A parallel track with Muscat is also advancing. Iranian diplomats said Tehran was close to reaching a new arrangement with Oman to manage shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a deal critical to preventing the war from escalating further, according to the Financial Times.

Iranian officials said negotiations over future management of the Hormuz Strait with Oman, which sits on the opposite shore of the waterway, are in their final stages. The agreed shipping route would be different from those used before, according to Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson, Baghaei, adding that the new route was separate from the issue of the strait’s reopening or continued closure.

Technologies

Oil Prices Slide as Trump Halts Planned Iran Strike

Oil prices dropped after Trump cancelled a planned strike on Iran, with WTI down about 5% and Brent near 5% lower. He said the move followed requests from Tehran and regional allies for a pause while a deal shaping the Strait of Hormuz and Iran’s nuclear program is negotiated.

Oil prices fell on Monday after President Donald Trump announced he had cancelled a planned strike on Iran. WTI futures dropped roughly 5% to $80.34 a barrel, while Brent slipped about 4.7% to $83.77 a barrel.

Trump said early Sunday he called off the strike after Iran and several Middle Eastern nations asked him to hold off, noting that the outlines of a deal had been agreed upon. He added that the prospective accord would entail the immediate, full opening of the Strait of Hormuz and an end to Iran’s nuclear ambitions, according to his Truth Social post.

The president had been considering another round of strikes as diplomatic hopes waned since the conflict began on February 28. He said the U.S. and Iran would meet for talks on Monday, but Iran denied any scheduled negotiations with Washington, citing PressTV. Iran’s foreign‑ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei clarified that Tehran was only discussing shipping routes through the Strait of Hormuz with Oman. In a follow‑up Truth Social message, Trump insisted that, regardless of Iran’s acknowledgment, the United States is indeed discussing a solution to a long‑standing problem created by Iran.

Technologies

Oil Prices Drop as Trump Cancels Planned Attack on Iran

Oil prices fell sharply after President Trump announced the cancellation of a planned strike on Iran, citing a new deal that would open the Hormuz Strait and end Iran’s nuclear threat.

Oil prices fell sharply on Monday after President Donald Trump announced that he had called off a planned strike on Iran.

West Texas Intermediate futures, the U.S. benchmark, slipped roughly 5% to close at $80.34 per barrel, while Brent crude, the international benchmark, declined 4.7% to settle at $83.77 a barrel.

Trump made the announcement early Sunday, saying he had canceled the strike following requests from Tehran and other Middle Eastern countries.

In a Truth Social post, he wrote: “We have just been asked by Iran, and other Middle Eastern Countries, to hold off any attack in that the perimeters of a deal has been agreed to.”

The president indicated that the proposed agreement would include the immediate, complete, and total opening of the Hormuz Strait, as well as an end to Iran’s nuclear threat.

Trump had been weighing additional strikes amid diminishing prospects for a diplomatic resolution to the conflict that began on Feb. 28. He stated that the U.S. and Iran would hold negotiations on Monday.

Tehran denied that talks were planned with Washington, according to state news outlet PressTV.

Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei said Tehran was only holding talks with Oman regarding the routes ships can use through the Strait of Hormuz.

In a subsequent Truth Social post, Trump added that whether “Iran wants to admit it or not, we are, in fact, talking of a solution to a problem that they have caused for decades.”