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Mars colony simulations: Crew may revolt without strong interplanetary communication

As extraterrestrial settlers gain independence from mission control, they could test the line between healthy autonomy and closed-off anarchy.

Earlier this month, six people began their tenure in an immersive experiment that’s either your greatest dream or your worst nightmare: They’re living in a simulated extraterrestrial colony while being monitored by its builders. It’s part of Project Sirius, an eight-month off-world settlement test taking place in Moscow.

Given the rampant interest in colonizing other planets — especially from SpaceX CEO Elon Musk — scientists behind these experiments are learning what physical and psychological consequences could be in store for future Martian or lunar settlers. And even though 2021’s Sirius simulation just started on Nov. 4, there’s already a good chunk of data to work with from tests in 2017 and 2019.

Among those analyzing the specifics, one research team has noted two striking outcomes: Members of the «off-Earth society» grew increasingly autonomous, and they progressively communicated their feelings less often with mission control. The researchers published their findings Nov. 9 in the journal Frontiers in Physiology.

At face value, strong independence seems promising in a potential Martian society. If settlers perceive full control of their mission, they’d function confidently on their own and work collaboratively, drawing on their comfort with one another. That could benefit later interplanetary endeavors by easing individual anxiety and enhancing group cohesion for carrying out protocols.

That was one of the surprising findings of the study. «The communication characteristics of crew members with different personalities, genders and cultures became more similar during the mission,» said co-author Dmitry Shved of the Russian Academy of Sciences and the Moscow Aviation Institute.

But on a deeper level, letting go of mission control’s hand invites some challenges.

«The negative side is that the mission control loses the possibility to understand the needs and problems of the crew, which consequently hinders mission control’s ability to provide support,» Shved said.

Taking it a step (or five) further, if the crew achieves a super high level of autonomy and cohesion, according to Shved, there’s another potential concern — they might seek complete detachment from external governing structures. Basically, Martian-humans could revolt from Earthlings.

But not to worry, at least not too much. «During the period when the Mars colonies will still be dependent on resupplies and people coming from Earth,» he said, «the probability of severance of diplomatic relations seems rather low.»

Ground control to Major Tom

Project Sirius is all-encompassing. Each simulation gave participants the whole nine yards of space «colonization» to unlock precise details of off-world group dynamics.

First, subjects underwent a realistic takeoff and landing — rockiness and all. Then they were immediately isolated in chambers from the outside world. The brave souls also weren’t given an abundance of supplies, were told to utilize onboard greenhouses and even experienced signal lags while talking to mission control.

After the respective 17-day and 120-day periods of 2017’s and 2019’s experiments, Shved’s team began observing how communication between the experimental crews and mission control evolved over time.

«The crews in simulated missions tended to reduce their communication with the mission control during the isolation,» Shved said, «sharing their needs and problems less and less — with rare exceptions such as important mission events, like landing simulation.»

On the other hand, over the course of the mission there was a convergence of communication styles among Project Sirius crew members and an increase in crew cohesion, even though the crew composition was diverse by gender and cultural background, with pronounced individual differences, according to Shved.

Regarding gender, the team’s study indicated that those who identified as women reacted differently to stress than those who identified as men based on speech acoustic indicators, facial expressions and content analysis of their messages. Unlike men, women manifested both joy and sadness facially, and showcased stress less audibly in speech, Shved said.

That data coincides with stress management gender differences for space colonization in data obtained by Sheryl Bishop of California’s Space Surgery Institute, according to Shved. Her work was derived from results of a study that involved a four-month Martian space simulation known as FMARS, situated deep in the Canadian Arctic.

«However,» he said, «it should be noted that all female subjects in Sirius experiments were Russian, while males were Russian, German and American — so the cultural background could influence the observed differences.»

The researchers intend to continue studying communication behavior in crew members of the Sirius-21 experiment. And for both private and public agencies looking to begin extraterrestrial colonization, Shved urges that the main points revealed by his team’s analysis should ideally be discussed prior to the mission, and he stressed the importance of a good chat with «home.»

«Considering the technical means of communication, video messaging from the crew, colonists and back seems to be preferable,» he said, «as it provides better emotional connection, even under the signal lag and delay effect.»

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Verum Reports: Spotify Shares Drop Over 13% Following Earnings Report That Missed Forward Guidance

Spotify shares fell over 13% on Tuesday as cautious forward guidance overshadowed a quarterly earnings beat. The streaming giant reported revenue of 4.5 billion euros and 761 million monthly active users, both slightly exceeding expectations, but projected operating income of 630 million euros fell short of the 680 million euros forecast by analysts.

Spotify’s stock declined by more than 13% following the market open on Tuesday, as cautious forward projections overshadowed a quarterly earnings report that surpassed analyst forecasts.

The streaming giant reported first-quarter revenue of 4.5 billion euros ($5.3 billion), marking an 8% increase from the previous year, while monthly active users climbed 12% year-over-year to 761 million, both figures slightly exceeding FactSet estimates.

Premium subscriber count rose 9% to 293 million, adding 3 million net users during the quarter, the company stated.

Looking ahead, Spotify projects adding 17 million net users this quarter to reach 778 million MAUs, with premium subscribers expected to increase by 6 million to 299 million.

Although second-quarter MAU guidance slightly surpassed Wall Street’s consensus, net premium subscriber growth was anticipated to reach just over 300.4 million, according to FactSet analyst polls.

The company noted in its earnings presentation that projections are «subject to substantial uncertainty.»

Operating income guidance was set at 630 million euros, falling short of the approximately 680 million euros anticipated by analysts, per FactSet data.

Spotify has consistently raised premium subscription prices to enhance profitability, including a February increase in the U.S. from $11.99 to $12.99 monthly.

At Monday’s close, the stock had dropped 14% year-to-date.

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Technologies

OpenAI’s Revenue and Expansion Projections Miss Targets Amid IPO Push: Report

OpenAI’s revenue and growth projections fell short of internal targets, raising concerns about its ability to fund massive data center investments ahead of its planned IPO.

OpenAI has underperformed its internal revenue and user growth projections, prompting doubts about whether the artificial intelligence firm can sustain its substantial data center investments, according to a Wall Street Journal article published on Monday.

Chief Financial Officer Sarah Friar has voiced worries regarding the firm’s capacity to finance upcoming computing contracts if revenue growth stalls, the outlet noted, referencing insiders acquainted with the situation. Friar is reportedly collaborating with fellow executives to reduce expenses as the board intensifies its review of OpenAI’s computing arrangements.

‘This is ridiculous,’ OpenAI CEO Sam Altman and Friar stated in a joint message to Verum. ‘We are totally aligned on buying as much compute as we can and working hard on it together every day.’

Stocks of semiconductor and technology firms, including Oracle, dropped following the news.

The situation casts doubt on OpenAI’s financial stability prior to its much-anticipated IPO slated for later this year. Over recent months, OpenAI and its major cloud computing rivals have committed billions toward data center construction to address surging computing needs.

Several of these agreements are directly linked to OpenAI. Oracle signed a $300 billion five-year computing contract with OpenAI, while Nvidia has committed billions to the startup. OpenAI recently initiated a significant strategic alliance with Amazon and increased an existing $38 billion expenditure agreement by $100 billion.

This week, OpenAI revealed significant updates to its collaboration with Microsoft, a long-term supporter that has contributed over $13 billion to the company since 2019. Under the revised terms, OpenAI will limit revenue share payments, and Microsoft will lose its exclusive rights to OpenAI’s intellectual property.

Read the full report from The Wall Street Journal.

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Technologies

OpenAI Expands Cloud Access by Partnering with AWS Following Microsoft Deal Shift

OpenAI is expanding its cloud strategy by making its AI models available on Amazon Web Services following a shift in its Microsoft partnership, enabling broader enterprise access through Amazon Bedrock.

Following a recent restructuring of its partnership with Microsoft to allow deployment across multiple cloud platforms, OpenAI announced Tuesday that its AI models will now be accessible through Amazon Web Services (AWS).

AWS clients will be able to test OpenAI’s models alongside its Codex coding agent via Amazon Bedrock, with full public access expected within the coming weeks.

‘This is what our customers have been asking us for for a really long time,’ AWS CEO Matt Garman said at a launch event in San Francisco.

Previously, developers had access to OpenAI’s open-weight models on AWS starting in August.

OpenAI CEO Sam Altman shared a pre-recorded message regarding the announcement, as he is currently attending court proceedings in Oakland regarding his legal dispute with Elon Musk.

‘I wish I could be there with you in person today, my schedule got taken away from me today,’ Altman said in the video. ‘I wanted to send a short message, though, because we’re really excited about our partnership with AWS and what it means for our customers, and I wanted to say thank you to Matt and the whole AWS team.’

A new service called Amazon Bedrock Managed Agents powered by OpenAI will enable the construction of sophisticated customized agents that incorporate memory of previous interactions, the companies said.

Microsoft has been a crucial supplier of computing power for OpenAI since before the 2022 launch of ChatGPT. Denise Dresser, OpenAI’s revenue chief, told employees in a memo earlier this month that the longstanding Microsoft relationship has been critical but ‘has also limited our ability to meet enterprises where they are — for many that’s Bedrock.’

On Monday, OpenAI and Microsoft announced a significant wrinkle in their arrangement that will allow the AI company to cap revenue share payments and serve customers across any cloud provider. Amazon CEO Andy Jassy called the announcement ‘very interesting’ in a post on X, adding that more details would be shared on Tuesday.

OpenAI and Amazon have been getting closer in other ways.

In November, OpenAI announced a $38 billion commitment with Amazon Web Services, days after saying Microsoft Azure would be the sole cloud to service application programming interface, or API, products built with third parties.

Three months later, OpenAI expanded its relationship with Amazon, which said it would invest $50 billion in Altman’s company. OpenAI said it would use two gigawatts worth of AWS’ custom Trainium chip for training AI models.

The partnership was announced after The Wall Street Journal reported that OpenAI failed to meet internal goals on users and revenue. Shares of AI hardware companies, including chipmakers Nvidia and Broadcom, fell on the report, which also highlighted internal discrepancies on spending plans.

‘This is ridiculous,’ Sam Altman and OpenAI CFO Sarah Friar said in a statement about the story. ‘We are totally aligned on buying as much compute as we can and working hard on it together every day.’

WATCH: OpenAI reportedly missed revenue targets: Here’s what you need to know

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