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5 cryptocurrency predictions for 2022

Experts reveal where cryptocurrency is headed in 2022.

This story is part of The Year Ahead, CNET’s look at how the world will continue to evolve starting in 2022 and beyond.

Cryptocurrency made many of the strangest headlines of 2021. Boosters touted digital currencies as a world-changing technology with the potential to create new economies and empower unbanked populations everywhere. Critics pointed to crypto’s massive environmental footprint, as well as its popularity in online crime. The chasm between these views will be hard to bridge.

Much of the cryptocurrency industry functions as a hype-monster, powered by oddball memes of cute dogs and outer space emoji. The same industry boasts a staggering amount of funding from venture capitalists and private enthusiasts, along with real technical innovations that could radically alter the way we interact with money. And, as it often goes with innovation, what we get may not be what we expect. CNET asked experts to help us navigate crypto’s journey to new lands in 2022. Here’s what they told us.

1. Crypto moves further into the mainstream

Big companies are trying to figure out how cryptocurrency fits into their business. Everyone from hedge fund managers to Starbucks executives is making moves that could impact how we use digital money this year.

When we hear about cryptocurrency in the headlines, it’s often about Tesla and SpaceX CEO Elon Musk’s tweets, overnight millionaires, expensive digital art and hacks. Yet the larger, fundamental changes are often less flashy and attention-grabbing than whatever crypto-hype machine dominates Twitter at any given moment.

«I hope we’re going to see a lot more focus on utility,» said Denelle Dixon, CEO of Stellar Development Foundation. «Instead of focusing just on a few use cases that create a lot of hype, we’ll see more focus on the use cases that drive real value. And more discussion around financial inclusion.»

2. NFTs create new ownership opportunities, and remix old ones

NFT, or nonfungible token, is a buzzy term that many of us heard for the first time in 2021. A new way to determine ownership of digital property using a blockchain ledger, NFTs are increasingly popular in the art and collectibles scenes. One of the most notable NFT collections of 2021 was called the Bored Ape Yacht Club. Go figure.

But the potential of NFTs goes far beyond eccentric digital artworks. NFTs are also used for digital land purchases in virtual worlds and for next-generation music ownership, licensing and publishing. Some observers see a future in which NFTs offer access to special sales or limited-edition products. How about using a NFT as a concert ticket? Or when you log into your favorite video game online? Expect to see all of that in 2022.

«The possibilities of NFTs are endless, since they can be used to log ownership of any unique asset,» Alex Atallah, co-founder of OpenSea, said in an email. «We’re already seeing early use-cases of NFTs being used as event tickets, software licenses, fan club memberships, or otherwise tied to interactive experiences.»

Some of America’s biggest brands, including Nike, are already working on expanding the application of NFTs. But NFTs used in consumer products may only be the tip of the iceberg. How about using an NFT to prove you are you?

«We’ve seen some movement from the artist-driven NFTs to NFTs that are focused on access or authorization,» said Stellar’s Dixon. «There was a party in New York recently where folks got access to the party by purchasing an NFT. So I wonder if we’ll see some focus on leveraging NFTs for digital identity.»

The $85 billion video game industry may be one of the most fertile areas of potential for NFTs. Some of the larger studios are already experimenting with them. And with all the talk surrounding the metaverse, an immersive 3D digital environment that’s been proposed by Meta (Facebook) CEO Mark Zuckerberg and other movers and shakers in the tech industry, NFTs could serve as building blocks for a next-generation digital world.

«Gamers are already accustomed to caring about digital goods, so the potential for NFTs is enormous: a few million NFT users compared to almost 3 billion gamers,» said Atallah. «We’re seeing some exciting developments when it comes to the intersection of NFTs, gaming and the metaverse.»

3. Bigger hacks and bigger ransoms

Cryptocurrencies were used to facilitate millions of dollars of ransomware payments in 2021. That’s because digital currencies include features that make them attractive to criminals. They’re difficult to track, they’re borderless, and once the payment goes through, it’s nearly impossible to unwind.

«We should expect to see more criminals turning to cryptocurrency and services that promise to obfuscate illicit funds due to the misconception of total anonymity,» Gurvais Grigg, a senior tech officer at Chainalysis, said in an email. «Bitcoin is appealing to criminals for the same reasons it appeals to those using them for legitimate purposes: It’s cross-border, instantaneous and liquid.»

Grigg and others expect decentralized finance, a nascent but blossoming industry on the cryptocurrency frontier, to be a popular target for cybercriminals in 2022. Decentralized finance, or DeFi, involves finance that works independently of a central authority or institution. Instead of relying on a bank or credit card network, people can connect directly with DeFiproducts on a distributed network.

Though the industry is still in its early days, DeFi is a fast-evolving, highly technical space with tremendous potential. As such, it’s attracted a great deal of attention and investment, making it ripe for criminal activity.

«Criminals are likely to explore DeFi as both a target for hacking and as a means to attempt laundering funds through,» said Grigg. «Because of how new DeFi is, and the explosion in adoption in developed markets, these platforms are easy targets for experienced criminals who have conducted similar hacks before.»

4. You’ll hear more about stablecoins

Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies have grabbed headlines because of their volatility. You can become a millionaire or lose it all at the hyper speed of the internet. But try buying a latte with bitcoin, and that volatility can make things confusing fast.

Enter stablecoins. This subcategory of cryptocurrency, which is tied to an underlying asset, mitigates much of that volatility. Stablecoins could play a vital role in turning cryptocurrency into something we can easily use to conduct the ordinary transactions of everyday life.

«People should start paying attention to trends in stablecoins both as a medium of payments and as a dollar digital currency. The use cases for cross-border payments, aid relief, instant settlement payments are starting to flourish in 2021 and we will see more of that in 2022,» Rachel Mayer, a vice president of product at Circle, said in an email.

Transferring assets more efficiently is one of the central values of a stablecoin. This value is powerful for companies that need to move digital assets and cash quickly and efficiently.

«On the payments side, more industries will start adopting stablecoins as a more efficient way to make payments,» Omid Malekan, author of The Story of the Blockchain and a professor at Columbia Business School, said in an email. «Stablecoin volumes will continue to grow, but the share of that volume that is only involved in crypto trading will go down.»

5. New crypto rules appear on the horizon

Washington lawmakers sense that cryptocurrency is a big and important thing. But they are struggling, perceptibly, to understand it. It may only be a matter of time before crypto gets its «series of tubes» moment from a hapless representative out of their element.

In December, executives from six cryptocurrency companies were called to testify before the House Financial Services Committee, where they discussed potential paths for future legislation. Lawmakers in the US have expressed interest in a range of topics — whether stablecoin issuers should be considered banks, when to tax cryptocurrency and how to craft functional rules in a highly technical and complex industry. This is tricky stuff. Creating the right standards will take time.

«I think there’s going to be a lot more conversations around crypto and blockchain,» said Dixon, one of the executives who testified before the House committee. Dixon previously testified on the issue of net neutrality before a House committee during her tenure at Mozilla in 2019 and harbors no illusions when it comes to regulating new technology. Some discourse will be positive and some will be negative, «but I just think that [by] having these conversations, we’re going to see policymakers and regulators be more focused, and hopefully, more traditional businesses will be more focused on that.»

There could be more milestones to reach before Americans see a comprehensive framework for crypto-focused legislation. But if industry leaders and elected officials can work together, regular cryptocurrency users and investors may benefit while environmental and security concerns are addressed.

«It’s important to understand that the cryptocurrency industry wants to be regulated, but wants to ensure that proposed regulatory frameworks are feasible,» said Grigg. «Governments globally are working with industry players to create legislation that protects consumers and fosters innovation.»

As the cryptocurrency industry grows up, it will continue to shift in ways we can’t yet imagine. But one thing is clear: Crypto will be a part of our future.

Technologies

Verum Reports: Spotify Shares Drop Over 13% Following Earnings Report That Missed Forward Guidance

Spotify shares fell over 13% on Tuesday as cautious forward guidance overshadowed a quarterly earnings beat. The streaming giant reported revenue of 4.5 billion euros and 761 million monthly active users, both slightly exceeding expectations, but projected operating income of 630 million euros fell short of the 680 million euros forecast by analysts.

Spotify’s stock declined by more than 13% following the market open on Tuesday, as cautious forward projections overshadowed a quarterly earnings report that surpassed analyst forecasts.

The streaming giant reported first-quarter revenue of 4.5 billion euros ($5.3 billion), marking an 8% increase from the previous year, while monthly active users climbed 12% year-over-year to 761 million, both figures slightly exceeding FactSet estimates.

Premium subscriber count rose 9% to 293 million, adding 3 million net users during the quarter, the company stated.

Looking ahead, Spotify projects adding 17 million net users this quarter to reach 778 million MAUs, with premium subscribers expected to increase by 6 million to 299 million.

Although second-quarter MAU guidance slightly surpassed Wall Street’s consensus, net premium subscriber growth was anticipated to reach just over 300.4 million, according to FactSet analyst polls.

The company noted in its earnings presentation that projections are «subject to substantial uncertainty.»

Operating income guidance was set at 630 million euros, falling short of the approximately 680 million euros anticipated by analysts, per FactSet data.

Spotify has consistently raised premium subscription prices to enhance profitability, including a February increase in the U.S. from $11.99 to $12.99 monthly.

At Monday’s close, the stock had dropped 14% year-to-date.

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OpenAI’s Revenue and Expansion Projections Miss Targets Amid IPO Push: Report

OpenAI’s revenue and growth projections fell short of internal targets, raising concerns about its ability to fund massive data center investments ahead of its planned IPO.

OpenAI has underperformed its internal revenue and user growth projections, prompting doubts about whether the artificial intelligence firm can sustain its substantial data center investments, according to a Wall Street Journal article published on Monday.

Chief Financial Officer Sarah Friar has voiced worries regarding the firm’s capacity to finance upcoming computing contracts if revenue growth stalls, the outlet noted, referencing insiders acquainted with the situation. Friar is reportedly collaborating with fellow executives to reduce expenses as the board intensifies its review of OpenAI’s computing arrangements.

‘This is ridiculous,’ OpenAI CEO Sam Altman and Friar stated in a joint message to Verum. ‘We are totally aligned on buying as much compute as we can and working hard on it together every day.’

Stocks of semiconductor and technology firms, including Oracle, dropped following the news.

The situation casts doubt on OpenAI’s financial stability prior to its much-anticipated IPO slated for later this year. Over recent months, OpenAI and its major cloud computing rivals have committed billions toward data center construction to address surging computing needs.

Several of these agreements are directly linked to OpenAI. Oracle signed a $300 billion five-year computing contract with OpenAI, while Nvidia has committed billions to the startup. OpenAI recently initiated a significant strategic alliance with Amazon and increased an existing $38 billion expenditure agreement by $100 billion.

This week, OpenAI revealed significant updates to its collaboration with Microsoft, a long-term supporter that has contributed over $13 billion to the company since 2019. Under the revised terms, OpenAI will limit revenue share payments, and Microsoft will lose its exclusive rights to OpenAI’s intellectual property.

Read the full report from The Wall Street Journal.

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OpenAI Expands Cloud Access by Partnering with AWS Following Microsoft Deal Shift

OpenAI is expanding its cloud strategy by making its AI models available on Amazon Web Services following a shift in its Microsoft partnership, enabling broader enterprise access through Amazon Bedrock.

Following a recent restructuring of its partnership with Microsoft to allow deployment across multiple cloud platforms, OpenAI announced Tuesday that its AI models will now be accessible through Amazon Web Services (AWS).

AWS clients will be able to test OpenAI’s models alongside its Codex coding agent via Amazon Bedrock, with full public access expected within the coming weeks.

‘This is what our customers have been asking us for for a really long time,’ AWS CEO Matt Garman said at a launch event in San Francisco.

Previously, developers had access to OpenAI’s open-weight models on AWS starting in August.

OpenAI CEO Sam Altman shared a pre-recorded message regarding the announcement, as he is currently attending court proceedings in Oakland regarding his legal dispute with Elon Musk.

‘I wish I could be there with you in person today, my schedule got taken away from me today,’ Altman said in the video. ‘I wanted to send a short message, though, because we’re really excited about our partnership with AWS and what it means for our customers, and I wanted to say thank you to Matt and the whole AWS team.’

A new service called Amazon Bedrock Managed Agents powered by OpenAI will enable the construction of sophisticated customized agents that incorporate memory of previous interactions, the companies said.

Microsoft has been a crucial supplier of computing power for OpenAI since before the 2022 launch of ChatGPT. Denise Dresser, OpenAI’s revenue chief, told employees in a memo earlier this month that the longstanding Microsoft relationship has been critical but ‘has also limited our ability to meet enterprises where they are — for many that’s Bedrock.’

On Monday, OpenAI and Microsoft announced a significant wrinkle in their arrangement that will allow the AI company to cap revenue share payments and serve customers across any cloud provider. Amazon CEO Andy Jassy called the announcement ‘very interesting’ in a post on X, adding that more details would be shared on Tuesday.

OpenAI and Amazon have been getting closer in other ways.

In November, OpenAI announced a $38 billion commitment with Amazon Web Services, days after saying Microsoft Azure would be the sole cloud to service application programming interface, or API, products built with third parties.

Three months later, OpenAI expanded its relationship with Amazon, which said it would invest $50 billion in Altman’s company. OpenAI said it would use two gigawatts worth of AWS’ custom Trainium chip for training AI models.

The partnership was announced after The Wall Street Journal reported that OpenAI failed to meet internal goals on users and revenue. Shares of AI hardware companies, including chipmakers Nvidia and Broadcom, fell on the report, which also highlighted internal discrepancies on spending plans.

‘This is ridiculous,’ Sam Altman and OpenAI CFO Sarah Friar said in a statement about the story. ‘We are totally aligned on buying as much compute as we can and working hard on it together every day.’

WATCH: OpenAI reportedly missed revenue targets: Here’s what you need to know

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