Technologies

Consumer Prices Climb 3.7% Year-Over-Year in September Amid Soaring Fuel Costs

U.S. consumer prices rose 3.7% annually in September, driven by a 9.1% surge in gasoline costs, keeping inflation well above the Fed’s 2% target and increasing odds of further rate hikes.

September offered minimal respite from the quickening pace of living expenses, as consumer prices climbed once more and maintained the inflation rate substantially above the Federal Reserve’s target.

The consumer price index, a comprehensive gauge of goods and services expenses throughout the U.S. economy, advanced a seasonally adjusted 0.6% for the month, placing the 12-month figure at 3.7%, the Bureau of Labor Statistics announced Wednesday. Economists polled by Dow Jones had projected matching increases of 0.6% and 3.6%.

Excluding volatile food and energy components, the so-called core CPI gained 0.3% monthly and rose 2.6% annually, versus respective forecasts of 0.2% and 2.5%.

The yearly headline inflation rate stood at 3.4% in August while the core rate was 2.4%.

Surging energy expenses were again the main driver in the inflation landscape. The energy index surged 5.2% as tensions persisted between the U.S. and Iran in a conflict initiated in late February that shows no indication of concluding soon.

Gasoline prices jumped 9.1%, representing roughly half the increase in headline CPI, according to the BLS. Over the past year, gas has recorded a 34.2% climb while fuel oil has surged 74.2%.

Food prices were unchanged on the month and up 2.5% from a year earlier. However, shelter costs rose 0.4% and used vehicle prices increased 0.7%. Apparel prices, which are sensitive to tariffs, rose 0.3% and are up 3.4% annually.

Stock market futures turned negative after the release while bond yields climbed sharply. Futures traders also boosted the probability of a rate increase when the Federal Open Market Committee next convenes on Oct. 27-28 to approximately 54%, per the CME Group’s FedWatch tool.

Chances for a rate hike before year-end rose to better than 96%, with a nearly 50-50 likelihood of the Fed raising rates by half a percentage point by December.

This marks the final CPI reading FOMC officials will receive before that meeting. The BLS on Thursday will publish the September reading on the producer price index, a measure of wholesale costs.

“CPI came in hot and it wasn’t just fuel prices, as core inflation ran at a 3.7% annualized pace in September and 3.2% over three years,” said Sonu Varghese, chief macro strategist at Carson Group. “The only surprise is that investors keep getting surprised by broad-based inflation. And we’ve yet to see the full impact of higher diesel prices and the AI boom.”

Inflation as measured by the CPI has exceeded the Fed’s 2% benchmark since March 2021. The gauge had been trending downward at the start of 2026, but then spiked following the strikes the U.S. and Israel launched against Iran.

Over recent months, the year-over-year trend has eased but remains well above target.

Fed officials responded in September by approving their first interest rate increase in over three years, a quarter percentage point move that lifted the benchmark funds rate to a target range of 3.75%-4%. Markets anticipate the Fed will forgo an October increase but hike again in December.

The supply shocks driving the energy surge are generally viewed as temporary, and policymakers often look past them when determining rate policy. However, Fed officials worry that the longer the conflict persists, the greater the likelihood the spike will filter through the broader economy and become entrenched in consumer and business expectations.

Prices have also faced pressure from President Donald Trump’s tariffs as well as demand for goods linked to the artificial intelligence expansion.

In recent days, several key policymakers have voiced the view that the Fed doesn’t need to rush into another hike. Yet most say they expect another increase this year. Market pricing suggests the Fed could raise rates at least twice more in 2027.

Fed officials monitor the CPI and numerous other metrics but rely on the Commerce Department’s personal consumption expenditures price index as their primary forecasting and policymaking gauge. The PCE figures for September won’t be released until later this month.

Technologies

TSMC posts record profit for sixth consecutive quarter, surpassing forecasts amid AI-driven surge

TSMC reported record third-quarter profit of NT$763.1 billion, driven by strong AI demand and advanced chip technologies. The company also announced plans to increase capital expenditures and expand its U.S. manufacturing operations.

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co

Here are TSMC’s third-quarter results against LSEG SmartEstimates, which are weighted toward forecasts from analysts who are more consistently accurate:

Revenue: 1.49 trillion new Taiwan dollars ($46.36 billion) vs. NT$1.47 trillion
Net Income: NT$763.1 billion vs. NT$746.34 billion expected

The world’s largest contract chipmaker posted a record net profit for a sixth straight quarter, reporting 68.7% surge in the reported quarter from a year earlier.

TSMC’s third-quarter operating margin came in at 58.7%, exceeding the upper end of its guidance range of 58%, showcasing the pricing power enjoyed by the company as the AI boom fuels demand for semiconductors.

TSMC forecast fourth-quarter revenue between $52.3 billion and $54.3 billion, representing a 14% sequential increase and a 58% jump from a year earlier at the midpoint of its guidance range, according to the company’s earnings call.

The chipmaker expects its capital expenditure from 2026 to 2028 to be significantly higher than in the previous three years, as it continues to ramp up investments to support growing customer demand.

TSMC expects its fourth-quarter business to be supported by continued strong demand for its advanced chipmaking technologies, including the ramp-up of its 2-nanometer process.

Advanced technologies, defined as 7-nanometer and more advanced technologies, made up for 79% of total wafer revenue. The 3-nanometer chips accounted for the largest share of its revenue in the third quarter at 33%, followed by 5- and 7-nanometer chips.

By platform, high-performance computing accounted for the largest share of revenue at 68%, followed by smartphones at 21%. Meanwhile, automotive was the fastest-growing segment on a quarter-on-quarter basis, with 23% growth rate.

TSMC said demand for AI chips remains strong, driven by the growing adoption of agentic AI and open-source AI models, which are expected to make AI more accessible and fuel demand for advanced semiconductors.

The company’s free cash flow surged to NT$476.56 billion in the third quarter, from NT$139.38 billion a year ago.

TSMC also pointed to rising demand for AI accelerators, processors used in agentic AI applications and networking, adding that semiconductors are set to play an increasingly important role in the global AI supply chain.

TSMC also said it had completed construction of its second fab in Arizona and is installing equipment, with mass production expected to begin in the third quarter of 2027, slightly ahead of its previous schedule.

TSMC board approved NT$7.00 cash dividend for the second quarter. During its second-quarter earnings announcement in July, TSMC had outlined plans to expand its U.S. manufacturing footprint, including a total planned investment of $265 billion in Arizona.

The chipmaker is also reportedly considering expanding beyond Arizona, evaluating a potential investment in Texas as it looks to further strengthen its U.S. manufacturing presence.

Technologies

Elon Musk blames Trump and US government for Ukraine Starshield restrictions

Elon Musk has blamed the U.S. government and President Donald Trump for any restrictions imposed on Ukraine’s military-grade Starlink network, following accusations from Kyiv that SpaceX quietly limited access to Starshield services.

Elon Musk has stated that any limitations placed on Ukraine’s military-grade Starlink network were the result of decisions made by the U.S. government and, ultimately, U.S. President Donald Trump.

This follows accusations from Ukraine that SpaceX introduced new restrictions on the Starshield internet service without prior notice, causing disruptions to Ukrainian military operations.

Nevertheless, it seems that some of these restrictions have been eased as of Thursday.

Kent Nishimura | AFP | Getty Images

SpaceX founder and CEO Elon Musk said Wednesday that the U.S. government and President Donald Trump bore responsibility for any limitations on Ukraine’s military-grade Starlink network.

In a post on X, Musk wrote: “Starshield systems are owned and controlled by the U.S. government. Any limits on speed or usage are decided by the US military and ultimately POTUS.”

Ukraine had accused SpaceX of quietly implementing new restrictions on the Starshield internet service, which disrupted Ukrainian military operations during renewed Russian attacks on its energy infrastructure.

On Wednesday, Serhii Beskrestnov, an advisor to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy on defense technology, claimed that SpaceX had introduced a speed cap on Starlink terminals in motion without informing the country’s defense forces.

This reportedly disrupted certain missions, and the same restrictions also affected Starshield, according to a statement on Telegram. As noted by Beskrestnov, Starlink is used to operate Ukraine’s interceptor drones — described as the “most effective solution” against Moscow’s Shahed drones.

Musk clarified that Starshield is a military-grade satellite network, whereas Starlink is intended solely for “civilian or defensive activities.”

Some restrictions appear to have been partially lifted, with former Ukrainian defense minister Mykhailo Fedorov thanking Musk early Thursday morning after Starlink connectivity at speeds of up to 160 kilometers per hour was restored. “Removing Starshield’s speed limit entirely is now critical for Ukraine’s defense,” Fedorov added.

These developments occur against the backdrop of ongoing tensions between Kyiv and Washington regarding an “energy ceasefire” announced by U.S. President Donald Trump between Ukraine and Russia.

Ukraine has expressed support for the deal, contingent on Moscow adhering to its commitments, while Russian authorities have said negotiations are continuing without confirming an agreement. On Monday, Zelenskyy accused Russia of violating the ceasefire.

Trump has also criticized Ukraine for continuing to target Russian energy facilities, suggesting that Kyiv’s actions were responsible for rising diesel prices, rather than the U.S. conflict with Iran.

Washington has reportedly threatened to reduce intelligence sharing with Kyiv, as reported by Reuters on Wednesday, while Ukrainian officials stated the previous day that they had not received alerts about incoming Russian attacks for two consecutive days.

Technologies

Inside India newsletter: Billionaire Ambani’s mega-IPO faces a valuation reality check amid Musk spat

Jio Platforms, the company at the center of Musk’s remarks, is launching an IPO later this month.

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Hello, this is Priyanka Salve, writing to you from Singapore.

Welcome to the latest edition of “Inside India” — your one-stop destination for stories and developments from the world’s fastest-growing large economy.

Indian tycoon Mukesh Ambani, whose plans to launch satellite communications and dominance over the Indian telecom market have drawn the ire of Elon Musk last week, has a more pressing worry.

Jio Platforms, the company at the center of Musk’s remarks, is coming up with a record IPO issue soon, but its valuation demands have met with pushback from investors who seem unconvinced of the company’s positioning as a tech business.

Any thoughts on today’s newsletter? Share them with the team.

The big story

Indian billionaire Mukesh Ambani’s telecom and digital services business Jio Platforms, which was called “monopolistic” by Starlink founder Elon Musk last week, has lowered its valuation ahead of its initial public offering next week.

Jio Platforms is the largest telecom operator in India with over half a million subscribers but has been positioning itself as a tech company and not just a traditional utility provider, experts told CNBC, but disagreed on whether these demands were valid.

Jio Platforms’ IPO will raise up to 302 billion rupees (nearly $3.2 billion) at a price band of 1,065 rupees to 1,119 rupees per share, its parent company Reliance Industries said in a stock filing on Wednesday. This values the company at around $108 billion—lower than the valuations of over $130 billion floated a year ago.

Jio’s enterprise valuation has shrunk to $118 billion from the $133 billion expected earlier, global brokerage Nomura said in a report on Sunday based on Bloomberg news last week that revealed the IPO pricing details.

Reliance Industries, the parent company of Jio Platforms, did not respond to CNBC’s emails seeking comments.

An equity valuation of $108 billion places Jio lower than India’s second-largest telecom company Bharti Airtel, which currently trades at a market capitalization of over $117 billion, as per LSEG data.

“Following its listing, Jio will likely need to demonstrate growth to public shareholders,” the report said, adding that the era of “easy subscriber gains” is ending and tariff hikes are likely to become “the primary driver of earnings growth.”

As per the information shared in Jio Platforms’ IPO papers, the company’s ARPU was 214 rupees ($2.25) per month while that of its competitor Airtel was 257 rupees for mobile, 527 rupees for home internet and 158 rupees for digital TV services.

Based purely on average revenue per user, a key metric for telecom companies, Jio’s discount to Airtel seems justified, but Jio wants to be seen as a tech company and not just a utility player.

Tech or telecom?

Through the IPO, Jio Platforms plans to clear off its legacy telecom debt, which will free up internal cash flows for its second phase of growth, according to Neil Shah, a partner at Counterpoint Research.

Jio plans to use the funds raised by the IPO to pay off its telecom business debt of 275 billion rupees, according to its IPO papers.

The next phase of investment will involve funding the company’s “gigawatt-scale green AI infrastructure” and low-earth-orbit satellite network, Shah said, placing it in the realm of tech businesses.

He pointed out that global tech majors like Meta and Google, which hold nearly 10% and 8% stakes respectively in Jio, are not exiting their investments via the IPO—proving their willingness to wait for the next phase of growth.

During the company’s annual shareholder meeting in June, Ambani told shareholders that Jio will “demonstrate to the world that India can build technology companies of global scale, global capability, and global value.”

He highlighted that, as per the World Intellectual Property Organization, Jio Platforms’ ranking in terms of “velocity of innovation through patents” jumped to 20 from 340 a year ago.

This was also when Ambani announced Jio Platforms’ plan to enter the satellite communication space in India, an area that has drawn interest from Musk’s Starlink. Last week, Musk said that his company has spent “five years complying with every single law and requirement” of the government and blamed Ambani for the delays in the launch of Starlink.

But even as the world’s first trillionaire and India’s second-richest businessman contest to provide internet to the remote areas of India, some experts are not convinced Jio Platforms has enough to be defined as a tech company.

Jio Platforms wants tech prices, but they have “no product expertise” as of now, Anurag Singh, managing partner and founder of U.S. based Ansid Capital, told CNBC.

He added that while Indian investors may buy Jio’s tech pitch due to lack of choice, “global investors won’t.” For now, Reliance is a utility company and will need significant investment to transform into a tech player, Singh said.

Need to know

As ‘Cockroach’ protests grow over alleged voter fraud, Modi defends India as ‘mother of democracy’

Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Tuesday defended India as a “mother of democracy,” as protests demanding the resignation of Chief Election Commissioner Gyanesh Kumar over alleged voter fraud are intensifying.

India calls JD Vance’s comments about immigrants ‘deeply offensive’

India on Friday called comments by U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance about immigrants from the country “deeply offensive”. A day earlier, Vance said that foreign and local companies “cannot lay off American workers and then replace them with foreign indentured servants.”

India’s retail inflation jumps to 5.54% in September, above estimates

India’s headline inflation rose to 5.54% in September from 4.82% in August, adding pressure on the country’s central bank to further tighten monetary policy. The consumer price index print was slightly above economists’ expectations of 5.40%

The Indian billionaire investing in Trump’s refinery project is also buying more Venezuelan crude

Indian billionaire Mukesh Ambani’s Reliance Industries, which is investing in a historic U.S. oil refinery project proposed by President Donald Trump, has now emerged as the biggest buyer of Venezuelan crude outside the U.S.

Coming up

Oct. 15: India unemployment data for September

Oct. 21: Jio Platforms IPO opens