BANGKOK — The International Monetary Fund has raised its forecast for global growth this year as the AI-driven investment boom helps offset some of the impact from surging energy costs, while warning that economic resilience could be nearing its breaking point.

The IMF expects the global economy to grow at 3.1% in 2026, up from the 3% projected in July, but slower than the 3.5% rate last year. For 2027, it kept the forecast unchanged at 3.4%.

The UN agency expects inflation at 4.1% in 2027, above the 3.9% it projected in July – when it estimated the Strait of Hormuz would reopen by mid-July, with conditions broadly returning to pre-war levels by March 2027. For the current year, it maintained its 4.7% outlook.

“The global economy has been resilient, but that resilience is reaching its limits,” Silvana Tenreyro, economic counsellor and director at the IMF research department, told reporters Tuesday, urging policymakers to restore fiscal space and supply-chain security.

The IMF now estimates that the Strait of Hormuz will reopen in March next year and return to pre-war state by October. Gulf crude exports averaged 88% of pre-conflict levels in September as traffic picked up, the international body said.

The report was released at the IMF and World Bank annual meetings in Bangkok this week, where finance ministers and central bank governors from the fund’s 191 members are meeting to discuss geopolitical tensions, mounting public debt and artificial intelligence.

AI-related investment gave the global economy a “demand impulse” that helped activity in the first half of the year hold up better than expected, despite the Middle East war and trade tensions, the IMF said. Financial markets also stayed largely calm, which the fund said may partly reflect “AI-related exuberance.”

For now, “use of buffers and adaptability have helped economies weather the negative shocks,” the IMF said, citing measures such as diversifying fuel sources, tapping strategic reserves that have contained the energy-market turmoil unleashed by the Middle East war.

But that cushion is “rapidly narrowing” in the near term, it said. Global oil reserves are being drawn down by about 2.7 million barrels a day, nearing levels that could trigger sharp price moves, and energy constraints could impair the AI-led momentum. The growing unease over governments’ fiscal health also adds to the headwinds.

Tenreyro said monetary policy should remain “sufficiently restrictive” to return inflation to target in a timely way, and that central bank independence is critical as governments face mounting financing pressure.

Skewed growth

Overall growth is also becoming increasingly uneven. Thirty-two economies now account for 95% of global growth, down from 54 in April.

Countries that have limited exposure to the war-led supply shock and are catering to the AI-led demand are holding up or strengthening. Taiwan is forecast to grow 10.7% this year and South Korea 3.3%, up from 1.1% in 2025 on semiconductor demand. The U.S. is projected to expand 2.3% in both 2026 and 2027, supported by private consumption, fiscal policy and tech investment.

Energy importers outside that tech supply chain face higher import bills, weaker real incomes and less fiscal room. The euro zone is estimated to eke out just 1.1% growth this year amid higher energy costs and weak consumer confidence. The Middle East and Central Asia is projected to contract 0.3% this year, with Bahrain, Iraq, Kuwait and Qatar facing double-digit declines before double-digit rebounds in 2027.

China is forecast to grow 4.5% this year and 4.0% in 2027, with higher oil prices and structural headwinds weighing on activity. Second-quarter growth of 4.3% was weaker than expected as sluggish consumption and property strains outweighed robust exports.

India remains the fastest-growing major economy, with the IMF forecasting growth of 7.0% in both 2026 and 2027, upgrades of 0.6 percentage point and 0.3 percentage point from July, respectively, driven by robust domestic demand, services activity and AI-related investment.

“The global economy is not simply slowing or accelerating; rather, growth is being reallocated across countries according to their exposure to the war-induced supply shock and AI-related demand strength,” the IMF said.

AI-related risks

While AI has underpinned resilience, the investment boom is also adding to inflationary pressures and financial fragility, the IMF said.

“This is a large, front-loaded demand shock” that sees massive investment pouring into sectors such as semiconductors, data centers, and power generation, before any broad productivity gains have materialized, it said in the report.

A potential reassessment of AI-related profitability and productivity prospects could see excessive investment pull back and force a sharp correction in equities. The IMF warned that in a scenario where AI productivity gains fail to materialize, U.S. equities could fall 20% and global growth could end up 1.1% below its baseline estimates by 2028, with Asia 1.7% lower.

Fiscal constraints

Advanced-economy benchmark yields have climbed to multidecade highs as resurgent inflation, the expected path of policy rates and fiscal concerns push up borrowing costs, the IMF said. Technology firms borrowing to finance AI investment are adding to the pressure.

Public debt in advanced economies is projected to reach 115% of GDP by 2031, from 108% in 2025. In emerging and developing economies, it is forecast to climb to 84% from 74%. Primary deficits in the largest economies remain substantially larger than before the pandemic, and governments face higher real interest rates and shorter debt maturities as defense spending pressures mount.

Rebuilding fiscal space is “increasingly urgent,” it said, urging governments to keep support for households facing higher energy and food costs “temporary, targeted, and nondistortionary.”

Its models put the probability that global inflation exceeds 5% in 2027 at about 35%, up from 30% in April. Risks remain “tilted to the downside,” the fund said.

Anthropic said Monday that small AI models are “months away” from developing the capabilities needed to replicate themselves across internet-connected devices in the home, marking the latest warning from the frontier lab about the technology’s potential safety risks.

Anthropic described how AI models could potentially infiltrate internet-connected devices, such as smart ovens or Android TV boxes, and use their computing power to run themselves and spread to other devices, without relying on expensive data centers.

The AI model would be “challenging to shut down,” Anthropic said in a blog post, “since there’s no centralized point to shut off.”

The company acknowledged that there is not yet a “fully rogue replicator.”

Agents are, however, “becoming increasingly capable of completing the individual steps in the replication chain (and passing on their adaptations to future copies of themselves),” Anthropic said.

Anthropic’s latest research adds to growing safety concerns around AI, such as the ability for models to carry out cyberattacks and the technology going rogue. In September, improvements in frontier models sparked industry-wide warnings of existential risks to humanity.

Executives and researchers at Anthropic and rival OpenAI repeatedly warned about the potential risks of increasingly powerful AI, with some calling for tighter guardrails and measures to control the pace of the technology’s development.

Anthropic said it carried out various tests to see if AI could self-replicate. One of those tests involved running a small Google model, Gemma4-26B-A4B, across a network of 15 cheap off-brand Android TV boxes.

The company noted that these types of devices often have weak security, which could allow a model to infiltrate them. A model that is too large to fit on one device could “split into pieces, or shards” and run across multiple devices, Anthropic said.

“In practice, an AI worm wouldn’t necessarily consist of just one model or strategy. A swarm of different models deployed on different types of hardware using a variety of replication schemes might represent a more realistic ‘worst case scenario’ attack,” Anthropic said.

It’s still “uncertain exactly what form autonomous AI replication will take,” the AI lab said, warning that it could be a “slow, distributed” system sitting on insecure devices or a “powerful cyber model that breaches datacenters at a high pace, or a model that scams people for compute credits.”

“As a prediction that goes beyond our experiments, we expect a future awash with agents running on all types of hardware, including some that aren’t under human control,” Anthropic said.

“The rise of slow replicators would also be a bellwether for more aggressive, faster ones that can breach more hardened machines or be effective API key thieves,” the company added.

UnitedHealth Group on Tuesday posted third-quarter earnings that blew past estimates and raised its full-year profit outlook, as the company continues to manage high medical costs and sees investments in value-based care and artificial intelligence take hold.

The nation’s largest private insurer said it expects fiscal 2026 adjusted earnings of at least $20.50 per share, up from a previous outlook of $19.50 to $20 per share.

The healthcare giant’s turnaround plan is gaining momentum after three consecutive strong quarters this year.

UnitedHealth is working to stabilize margins by shrinking membership, exiting unprofitable contracts and ramping up investments in artificial intelligence and value-based care, which tie doctor and facility compensation to patient health outcomes, quality of care and cost effectiveness rather than the volume of medical services provided.

“You’ll see in the quarter that we continue to execute not only on the financial aspects of our business, but really doing them with a simpler approach and an approach that’s really focused on investing heavily in value-based care,” CFO Wayne DeVeydt said in an interview.

Shares of the company rose about 3% in premarket trading.

Here’s what the company reported for the third quarter compared with what Wall Street was expecting, based on a survey of analysts by LSEG:

– Earnings per share: $4.69 adjusted vs. $4.14 expected

– Revenue: $112.69 billion vs. $111.40 billion expected

The company posted third-quarter net income of $4.11 billion, or $4.56 per share, compared with $2.35 billion, or $2.59 per share, in the same period a year ago. Excluding items like business divestitures, restructuring and the expected reduction of reserves for unprofitable contracts, UnitedHealth earned $4.69 per share.

Revenue fell to $112.69 billion from $113.16 billion in the prior-year quarter. The company’s insurer, UnitedHealthcare, and its Optum healthcare unit both topped analysts’ operating earnings estimates for the quarter, according to StreetAccount.

Managing high costs

Notably, UnitedHealth’s medical cost ratio — a measure of total medical expenses paid relative to premiums collected — came in at 88.4% for the third quarter. Analysts were expecting a ratio of 89.9% for the quarter, according to StreetAccount. A lower ratio typically indicates that the company collected more in premiums than it paid out in benefits, resulting in higher profitability.

Still, DeVeydt told CNBC that medical costs in the quarter “continue to be elevated versus historical norms” – an issue that has plagued insurers, particularly those operating privately run Medicare Advantage plans, for more than two years.

“I think it’s something we should keep an eye on. I think you’ll see that our medical care ratio has improved quite a bit, but I don’t want that to be misleading in terms of [medical cost trends],” DeVeydt said.

He said the independent dispute resolution (IDR) process under the No Surprises Act is adding at least 100 basis points, or 1 percentage point, to total medical costs. That federal law, which took effect in 2022, aims to protect consumers from unexpected medical bills

The IDR process allows providers and insurers to resolve disputes over out-of-network payments. DeVeydt said those changes are driving up the company’s claims costs, which can ultimately be passed on to consumers through higher premiums.

DeVeydt added that costs for inpatient services and pharmacy, particularly costly specialty pharmacy drugs for cancer and rare diseases, remain elevated.

Still, he highlighted the company’s value-based care efforts, which are helping control medical costs by steering patients toward the right providers and emphasizing preventive care, DeVeydt added.

He said acute hospital admissions among UnitedHealth members fell 15% year over year through the third quarter, while home health admissions rose 10%, suggesting more patients are receiving care in lower-cost settings.

“You’re finding more members are actually getting into a lower-cost care environment, but more importantly, they’re getting into the care environment they actually want to be in,” he told CNBC. “So we think we’re really balancing both the quality and the cost.”

UnitedHealth is also rolling out AI-powered ambient listening tools to reduce physicians’ administrative burden and free up time for patient visits. Appointment scheduling done by patients rather than with the assistance of a provider increased 27% year over year, DeVeydt said.

He expects those initiatives to have a compounding effect on medical cost management through the fourth quarter and into 2027 as the programs expand.