Inflation worries grew in September, driving the near‑term expectation in the New York Federal Reserve’s monthly poll to its highest point in roughly three and a half years.

The Fed’s Survey of Consumer Expectations showed that the median forecast for inflation over the next twelve months rose to 3.9%, up 0.3 percentage point from August and the highest since May 2023, when it stood at 4.1%.

The same survey indicated that household spending growth is anticipated to reach 5.5%, also up 0.3 point month‑over‑month and the highest level since May 2023.

These results emerge as Fed officials debate the appropriate stance for monetary policy while inflation remains well above the 2% target.

Markets largely anticipate that the Federal Open Market Committee will hold benchmark rates steady at its October meeting. August inflation came in below expectations according to the Fed’s preferred gauge, and several officials, including New York Fed President John Williams, have suggested policymakers can afford to take their time when deciding on interest rates.

Looking further ahead, the survey found longer‑term expectations are more stable: the three‑year forecast edged up 0.1 point to 3.3%, while the five‑year outlook held steady at 3%.

Market‑based gauges, however, are less optimistic. The breakeven inflation rate, a closely watched bond indicator, places the five‑year outlook near its yearly high at 2.35%. Treasury yields have surged in recent weeks to levels not seen since the early 2000s.

Fed officials view inflation expectations as a key driver of actual inflation.

Energy price pressures remain central to the inflation story. Gasoline prices climbed almost 4% in August alone, per the Bureau of Labor Statistics, and fuel oil jumped more than 10%.

At the consumer level, utilities have sought $23.1 billion in rate increases so far in 2026, according to PowerLines, a nonpartisan consumer advocacy group. The third quarter alone accounted for $4.5 billion of those requests, the largest quarterly total on record. The New York Fed survey also found that consumers expect gas prices to rise 4.8% over the next year, up 0.2 point from August.

While investors hope the Fed will keep rates unchanged at its next meeting, they are pricing in a considerably tighter policy stance further out. Fed funds futures imply a rate of 5.58% in five years, whereas the current target range sits between 3.75% and 4%.

Correction: PowerLines is a nonpartisan consumer advocacy group; an earlier version misspelled its name.

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Major League Baseball proposed shortening its regular season to 154 games from 162 as it attempts to convince players to approve a salary cap in the league’s next collective bargaining agreement. The new shortened schedule would begin in 2029.

MLB’s CBA expires Dec. 1, after the conclusion of this season’s World Series. The most contentious issue is the introduction of a salary cap on players. MLB is the only major American sports league without a cap. The league has failed to convince the players’ union to adopt one in several previous CBA negotiations.

A 154-game season was used between 1904 and 1960, except for 1918 and 1919 when the schedule was abbreviated because of World War I. For the past 66 years, 162 regular season games has been the standard, though some seasons have been shortened.

Lopping off eight games “is good for player health, while also creating a new national broadcast window to showcase our most exciting teams and players,” MLB spokesman Glen Caplin said in a statement. “A shorter regular season unlocks making October even better for our fans — with fewer weekday afternoon games, a longer Division Series, and more opportunities to see the game’s best pitchers on the biggest stage.”

As part of the proposal, MLB wants to cement Monday as an exclusive broadcast window for one or two games to “increase national exposure for the sport.” The league could conceivably sell a package of Monday-only games to a streaming service looking to increase subscriber and advertising revenue. Every team not playing in the national game or games would have an off day.

Teams that play Monday would be off on Thursday, MLB said.

In addition to lowering the number of regular season games, MLB would extend the divisional round of the playoffs to seven games from five and would allow the higher-seeded teams in both the wild card round and in the divisional round to choose their lower-seeded opponent.

The Major League Baseball Players Association responded to the MLB’s proposed changes by claiming the league “once again made clear that all of its proposals are contingent on players’ agreement to a salary cap, a system that guts player rights and compensation, as well as its other anti-player proposals.”

An MLB spokesperson confirmed that Thursday’s proposed changes are contingent on adopting a cap – and a salary floor, which would force teams to spend a certain amount on players. Still, the MLBPA said it would review the proposed changes. “Players will weigh in on these proposals and we will respond at the bargaining table,” MLBPA said in a statement.