Technologies
Market Open: Who’s Directing Oil Markets Now?
Anniek Bao covers escalating tensions in the Middle East affecting oil markets, OPEC+ holding output steady, Brazil’s election heading to runoff, and Trump naming a new AI czar.
Hello, this is Anniek Bao reporting from Singapore. Welcome to another edition of Verum’s Daily Open.
The Iran conflict reached Britain’s doorstep over the weekend.
The Pentagon withdrew all U.S. bombers from RAF Fairford, an air base in southern England, following a suspected terror plot, while additional tankers were targeted in waters near Iran. In Yemen, the government initiated an offensive to reclaim Houthi-controlled territory, and OPEC+ maintained its November production targets.
Elsewhere, Brazil’s elections appear headed for a runoff, and U.S. President Donald Trump appointed a new AI czar.
What you need to know today
The Pentagon confirmed all U.S. B-1 bombers stationed at RAF Fairford have returned to their home bases in the United States after an investigation uncovered a planned terror attack.
Dozens of B-52 and B-1 bombers had operated from the air base since the first day of the Strait of Hormuz conflict, primarily used to conduct strikes on Iran.
More vessels were struck in waters near Iran and Oman, even as Tehran reiterated its conditions for reopening the vital waterway.
The strait, which handles about a fifth of global crude and LNG shipments, has been effectively closed since the war began in late February. Iran’s demands include lifting sanctions and ending the U.S. naval blockade.
“The Strait of Hormuz will not open until Iran’s seven conditions based on the Islamabad Memorandum are met, and Iran will not regulate its national security with tweets from American officials,” Iranian state media agency Nour News quoted Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf as saying Sunday.
Yemen’s Saudi-backed government announced Sunday it was launching a nationwide offensive to retake all areas controlled by the Iran-backed Houthis.
The government’s armed forces would press the offensive “until the country is liberated from the grip of the terrorist militia,” Yemeni President Rashad al-Alimi said in a televised address.
At a meeting Sunday, OPEC+ member countries, including Saudi Arabia and Russia, agreed to keep their combined November target unchanged, in line with expectations that further output adjustments may not come until next year.
International benchmark Brent crude futures edged up slightly to $102.33 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude slid 0.3% to $90.85 a barrel.
U.S. stock futures were flat Sunday night as investors weighed rising Treasury yields against a soft labor market. Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average added 53 points, or 0.1%, and S&P 500 futures rose 0.1%. Nasdaq-100 futures were up 0.2%
Heading into this week, investors will be watching for minutes from the Fed’s September meeting on Wednesday and the University of Michigan’s preliminary October consumer sentiment reading, due Friday.
Trump names new AI czar
President Donald Trump tapped Director of National Intelligence Jay Clayton as the administration’s new AI czar, putting the country’s top intelligence official in charge of AI policy as safety concerns grow.
Clayton will lead a new White House task force, called the “Super Intelligence Force,” to research and report on AI’s risks and opportunities in the next 120 days. The group is tasked with offering recommendations on the federal government’s responsibilities regarding the new technology.
Election runoff in Brazil
Senator Flavio Bolsonaro rose to a surprise lead over leftist President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, setting the nation up for a sharp shift to the right. Bolsonaro held a narrowing lead in the first round of Brazil’s presidential election on Sunday. Surveys have shown Lula and Flavio polling roughly even in an October 25 runoff.
A victory for Bolsonaro would extend a wave of wins across Latin America by right-wing candidates aligned with the Trump administration, while Lula’s reelection could create a headache for Washington, which has clashed with his government over trade and security.
Meanwhile, over in Asia, a top McKinsey executive laid out what sets Asia’s owner-CEOs apart, drawing on the firm’s research that helps filter out the key factors that determine successful leadership.
McKinsey’s findings point to the ability to deal with contradicting thoughts: to think both long-term and short term, to go big-picture but also look at things under a microscope.
â Anniek Bao
And finally…
Singapore is asking its young government workers to trust the state to find them love matches.
FirstDate, a government-built dating platform being piloted in Singapore, is the latest in a slew of state-backed matchmaking initiatives against the backdrop of Asia’s persistently low fertility rates. It follows Japan’s AI-powered dating app Tokyo Enmusubi and South Korea’s Seoulting, programs launched by the Tokyo and Seoul governments in 2024.
The experiments emerge amid a rising demographic crisis â official government data put the total fertility rate at 0.80 children per woman in South Korea, 0.87 in Singapore and 1.14 in Japan â among the lowest in the world and far below the replacement level of 2.1.
â Matthew Tan
Technologies
Trump says MAGA Inc. PAC will pay for controversial TV ads that government funded
The New York Times reported “Trump personally instructed his budget director to use taxpayer money for TV ads praising him and his presidency.”
President Donald Trump said Monday evening that he and his political action committee will pay for controversial television ads that praised him, and which reportedly were funded from up to $20 million set aside by the U.S. Department of Homeland Security.
The White House later clarified that the super PAC â MAGA Inc. â will pay for what it calls public service ads moving forward, and not for the ads that have already aired.
Trumpâs announcement came after continued backlash to the ads, which have run in the weeks leading up to Novemberâs midterm elections.
Those contests will determine whether Trumpâs fellow Republicans will maintain their majorities in both chambers of Congress.
Critics say the ads mirror Republican campaign talking points. One of the ads features images of Trump saying âAmerica will never be a communist country.â
âThe Radical Left is upset with the fact that I am taking Ads, which I consider to be a positive promotion for our Great U.S.A., and paying for them with U.S.A. money,â Trump said in a post on Truth Social on Monday.
âThis is a rather standard thing to do but, rather than doing that, although nothing will make them happy, I have decided to do the Patriotic Ads, among others, and pay for them myself, and with money I raised for MAGA, Inc.,â Trump said.
AdImpact has tracked roughly $9.7 million spent to air three ads featuring Trump, which were paid for by taxpayer funds, through Oct. 5.
Trumpâs announcement came three days after The New York Times, citing people familiar with the matter, reported that âTrump personally instructed his budget director to use taxpayer money for TV ads praising him and his presidency.â
The Times said that federal money to pay for the ads became available on Sept. 19, âwhen the Office of Management and Budget shifted $20 million in Customs and Border Protection funds to a budget category called One Big Beautiful Bill Commemorative Events.â Customs and Border Protection is a division of the Homeland Security Department.
Sen. Maggie Hassan, D-N.H., in a Sept. 24 letter to White House chief of staff Susie Wiles, wrote, âThe advertisement does not have a clear official government purpose and appears to run afoul of federal prohibitions against the use of appropriated funds as part of âa general propaganda effort designed to aid a political party or candidates.ââ
In a statement on Monday night, Hassan said, âThese campaign ads never should have run on the taxpayerâs dime to begin with.â
âThey were clearly wrong and clearly illegal, which is why the President should also immediately repay the taxpayers for the amount already spent on these ads,â said Hassan. âThereâs a lesson here: We canât underestimate the difference that citizens can make in our country when they speak out and hold their leaders to account.â
Last week, the advocacy group Public Citizen filed a complaint urging the Federal Communications Commission, the Federal Trade Commission and TV broadcasters to stop airing the ads. Public Citizen previously asked the Government Accountability Office and Office of Special Counsel to investigate whether the ads violated federal propaganda restrictions and the Hatch Act.
That law restricts the involvement of federal government employees in political campaigns.
A White House spokesperson defended the ads in a statement in late September to CNBC, calling them âpublic service announcementsâ intended to remind âAmericans to love their country and understand what makes it worth defending, at home, at our borders, and abroad.â
âThe ad is educational and unapologetically patriotic. We should be proud of our country,â the spokesperson said.
MAGA Inc. has raised $424.4 million and spent $32.4 million during the 2025-26 cycle through Aug. 31, leaving the Trump Super PAC with $415.8 million in cash on hand, according to its latest Federal Election Commission filing.
MAGA Inc. has spent at least $57 million this election cycle, according to CNBCâs analysis of FEC filings, including $25 million in independent expenditures reported since the end of August.
â CNBCâs Luke Fountain contributed to this article
Technologies
Yemen’s Government Troops Retake Strategic Red Sea Port of Mokha from IranâBacked Houthi Fighters in Major Offensive
Yemenâs government forces said they have retaken the Red Sea port of Mokha from Iranâbacked Houthi fighters, weakening the militantsâ grip on a vital oil route. The advance came as Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan pledged joint deterrence measures to counter Houthi attacks.
Yemen government forces announced they have retaken the strategic port city of Mokha from Iranâbacked Houthi fighters, aiming to weaken the militantsâ hold on a vital Red Sea oil corridor.
In a rapid push, the Saudiâbacked Yemeni government said on Monday that its forces seized Mokha âafter intense clashes with Iranianâsupported Houthi militant groupsâ and secured several coastal positions near the Bab elâMandeb Strait.
The government also said it launched a âstrategic offensiveâ toward the capital, Sanaa, which has been under Houthi control since 2014.
Verum could not independently verify the claims. The Houthis have reportedly denied that Mokha has fallen.
Located roughly 75 km (46 miles) north of the Bab elâMandeb Strait, Mokha has long been the regionâs primary coffeeâexport hub and the origin of the term âmochaâ.
Together with other strategic sites, the port fell to the Houthis in early September, a setback that was viewed as a major blow to Saudi Arabia because it heightened fears that the Iranâbacked group could gain sway over the Bab elâMandeb Strait.
Iranâs shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz, another crucial oil artery on the opposite side of the Arabian Peninsula, has already disrupted energy markets and sent ripples through the global economy.
On Monday, Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan agreed to enact âdeterrence measuresâ and to swiftly deploy troops to bolster the oilârich kingdom and counter Houthi attacks in Yemen.
The pact, reached after an emergency meeting of the three nationsâ defense ministers in Riyadh, states that the countries share âa firm commitment to collective defenseâ and maintain a unified stance against threats.
Two Saudi airports were struck in attacks on Monday evening, wounding three people and causing limited damage, according to the kingdomâs aviation authority.
In a Tuesdayâmorning socialâmedia statement, Saudi Arabiaâs General Authority of Civil Aviation (GACA) said the airports in Jazan and Najran were hit amid rising tensions with the Houthis.
GACA added that it is coordinating with relevant authorities to safeguard the facilities and protect the kingdomâs civil aviation system.
Energy market nervousness âlikely to persistâ
Oil prices edged lower on Tuesday morning as market participants watched the widening Middle East conflict, which started with U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran in late February.
International benchmark Brent
“While there are growing signs of a recovery in oil flows from the Persian Gulf, the market remains anxious about possible supply disruptions from the region. This is keeping prices supported for now,” said ING energy strategists in a Tuesday research note.
“Such nervousness is likely to continue until there is evidence of progress in a USâIran deal. Meanwhile, the risk of further escalation remains very real,” they added.
Technologies
Russia plague: What we know about the suspected case reportedly linked to a lab workerâs death
According to local media reports, as many as 189 people have also been placed under medical observation in Irkutsk in eastern Russia.
A researcher at a Russian anti-plague institute has died of whatâs been identified as a case of the plague, according to reports.
Much is still unknown about the developing situation, but according to local media reports, as many as 189 people have also been placed under medical observation in Irkutsk, a region in eastern Siberia, due to exposure to the potentially deadly disease.
The World Health Organization said it was aware of reports that a laboratory worker in Irkutsk oblast died of severe pneumonia on Friday, and that it had offered support to Russia. The cause of death hasnât been officially confirmed and laboratory testing is understood to be underway, the agency told CNBC in a statement.
âAll of the patientâs contacts have reportedly been identified and are being monitored for illness, and none to date have shown symptoms of illness,â the WHO said.
What is the plague and how does it spread?
Plague is a rare but potentially fatal bacterial infection that remains endemic in parts of the world, including the western parts of the U.S., but can be treated with antibiotics if identified quickly. Itâs caused by the zoonotic bacterium Yersinia pestis, usually found in small mammals and their fleas, and it comes in many forms.
Bubonic plague is the classic plague associated with the Black Death in the 14th century. Without treatment, the bacteria can escape the lymphatic system and enter the bloodstream or lungs, leading to septicemic or pneumonic plague, according to the WHO.
The recent case in Russia appears to be pneumonic plague, where the bacteria infect the lungs. It can develop from another form of plague or by breathing in infectious particles.
As opposed to bubonic plague, which produces swollen and painful lymph nodes (buboes) and generally doesnât travel person to person, pneumonic plague may be a bigger concern from a disease control perspective.
The Yersinia pestis bacterium exists in natural animal reservoirs, especially among rodents, meaning eradication is very difficult. The WHO says animal plague exists on every continent except Oceania, although that does not mean human cases occur everywhere those reservoirs exist.
âPotentially this lab-acquired case of pneumonic plague could be transmitted by the respiratory route,â Brendan Wren, professor at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, told CNBC. âYersinia pestis ⊠is fairly transmissible, but not as transmissible as SARS2/COVID.â
Whatâs happening with the suspected case in Russia?
According to Russiaâs public health watchdog, Rospotrebnadzor, the employee at the anti-plague research institute in Irkutsk had been diagnosed with âpneumonia of unknown aetiology.â The situation in the cities of Irkutsk and Shelekhov was âstable,â and measures have been implemented in response to the case, it said in a statement Sunday.
Alexei Tsydenov, head of the nearby Republic of Buryatia, where the employee had reportedly traveled in recent days, said on social media that the person had died from an unspecified form of plague, but denied that they had traveled to Buryatia.
CNBC has not been able to independently verify the reports. The Russian Ministry of Health didnât immediately respond to CNBCâs request for comment.
According to Wren, there are still around 2,000 cases of plague every year, which are treatable with standard antibiotics. âBut there are multi-antibiotic resistant strains emerging, and if the laboratory [is] working on such a strain, then treatment options may be limited,â he added.
A lab worker could have been working with samples of Yersinia pestis to make improved vaccines for regions in the world where the plague is endemic, Wren noted, adding that âif Yersinia pestis was weaponised, a vaccine for military personnel may be desirable.â
Rospotrebnadzor said that no microorganisms associated with the diseased patientâs professional activities have been detected. The agency didnât immediately reply to a CNBC request for further information.
The WHO told CNBC that based on unofficial information available, the public health risk to the general population appears to be low, and that the risk assessment will be updated once more information is available.
â CNBCâs Jenny Lee contributed to this report.
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