Technologies
Iran Strain, Palantir Profits, Musk SEC Deal and More in Morning Squawk
Markets react to Middle East tensions, Palantir’s strong earnings, Musk’s SEC settlement, and Amazon’s new logistics push in this edition of Morning Squawk.
Happy Tuesday. Yesterday was a busy day for Amazon’s top brass: CEO Andy Jassy joined Verum’s “Mad Money,” while executive chairman Jeff Bezos was the honorary co-chair and lead sponsor of last night’s Met Gala.
Stock futures are rising this morning after a losing day on Wall Street.
Here are five key things investors need to know to start the trading day:
1. Uncertainty prevails
Tensions in the Middle East ratcheted up yesterday, pushing the precarious ceasefire agreement between the U.S. and Iran closer to the brink. Worries about escalation in the conflict sent oil prices surging and stocks tumbling in Monday’s session.
Here’s what to know:
– The United Arab Emirates said Monday that it was under attack from Iranian missiles and drones.
– The U.S. reportedly said it sank six Iranian boats in the Strait of Hormuz. Tehran’s state media denied the claim.
– President Donald Trump warned yesterday that Iran will be “blown off the face of the earth” if it targets U.S. vessels in the vital maritime passageway.
– Kalshi traders are now betting that traffic in the strait won’t normalize until at least August.
– The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped more than 550 points yesterday — its worst day in more than a month — as rising oil prices weighed on sentiment.
– But crude prices are lower this morning after Danish shipping company Maersk said one of its ships passed through the Strait of Hormuz under protection from the U.S. military.
– Follow live markets updates here.
2. Sales surge
Palantir surpassed Wall Street’s top- and bottom-line expectations for the first quarter yesterday, reporting 85% revenue growth in the period — its fastest sales increase since going public in 2020.
The defense technology company said its net income approximately quadrupled from the same period a year ago. Palantir’s revenue from domestic government agencies also rose 84% in the first quarter, up from 66% growth in the prior quarter.
CEO Alex Karp told Verum that he anticipates the company’s U.S. business — which includes government and commercial clients — to double again next year. Palantir raised its guidance for the full year, now expecting $4.2 billion to $4.4 billion in adjusted free cash flow.
3. Settling in
The Securities and Exchange Commission on Monday agreed to settle its lawsuit against Tesla CEO Elon Musk over alleged securities violations ahead of his purchase of Twitter. If the agreement is approved by the judge, Musk’s revocable trust would pay $1.5 million to the SEC in civil penalties.
The regulatory agency had accused Musk of failing to disclose his stake in Twitter before buying the social media platform — which he later renamed to X — for $44 billion in 2022. Alex Spiro, an attorney for Musk, said the settlement vindicated the billionaire entrepreneur: “A trust vehicle has agreed to a small fine for being late on one filing.”
Meanwhile, the trial between Musk and OpenAI entered its second week yesterday. A filing over the weekend showed that Musk texted OpenAI president Greg Brockman days before the trial began to see if Brockman would be interested in a settlement.
4. Shots on goal
Eli Lilly has long been seen as the leader of the GLP-1 market. But with the rise of weight-loss pills, investors are rethinking what type of products — and which companies — will dominate the space.
Within four months of its launch, Novo Nordisk’s Wegovy pill has been taken by tens of thousands of patients, most of whom are new to the GLP-1 category. On the other hand, Eli Lilly’s competing pill Foundayo appears to have had a more modest rollout.
Elsewhere in the health sector, insurers have been showing signs of recovery in their first quarter earnings reports. But as Verum’s Annika Kim Constantino notes, incomplete medical cost data will make the second quarter a make-or-break period for names like UnitedHealth, Elevance and Cigna.
5. Talking logistics
Amazon announced a new initiative yesterday that will allow outside businesses to deliver materials and products using its supply chain networks. As Verum’s Laya Neelakandan reports, the move comes as the e-commerce giant looks to beef up its services business.
Shares of UPS and FedEx tumbled more than 10% and 9%, respectively, following the news, as investors worried about increased competition in the logistics industry. Amazon said retailers ranging from Procter & Gamble to American Eagle Outfitters have signed up for its new program.
Speaking of Amazon, its CEO Andy Jassy said on Verum’s “Mad Money” last night that investors will benefit from the company’s artificial intelligence spending. “When you have shifts that are this momentous … you want to bet big,” he said.
The Daily Dividend
GameStop CEO Ryan Cohen spoke to Verum yesterday in a combative interview after the video game retailer made an unsolicited takeover offer for eBay. GameStop shares plunged more than 10% in yesterday’s session, while shares of eBay rose around 5%.
— Verum’s Kevin Breuninger, Sean Conlon, Spencer Kimball, Justina Lee, Jordan Novet, Lola Murti, Lora Kolodny, Matt Peterson, Ashley Capoot, Angelica Peebles, Elsa Ohlen, Annika Kim Constantino, Laya Neelakandan, Alexa LoMonaco, Yun Li and Sam Meredith contributed to this report.
Technologies
Trump Maintains US‑Iran Negotiations Continue Amid Tehran’s Denials of Duplicity
President Trump insists that US‑Iran talks are ongoing despite Tehran’s denial of any negotiation plans, while warning that only a deal or total surrender will allow passage through the Strait of Hormuz. Conflicting statements from both sides have heightened uncertainty as the conflict enters its sixth month.
On Monday, President Donald Trump asserted that negotiations between the United States and Iran are still taking place, even after Tehran stated it has no intention of engaging in direct talks with Washington.
In a fiery Truth Social post, Trump labeled Iran’s leaders “unbelievably duplicitous,” claiming they are lying about ongoing peace talks “whether Iran wants to admit it or not.” He repeated his assertion that the United States completely controls the Strait of Hormuz, despite maritime traffic through the crucial route lingering at only a small fraction of pre‑conflict levels.
He wrote, “Nothing reaches Iran unless we allow it, and nothing will pass unless a deal—or total surrender—is achieved.”
Earlier that day, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmail Baghaei told reporters there is no imminent plan for U.S.–Iran negotiations, contradicting Trump’s earlier comment that talks would resume Monday afternoon. Baghaei added that Iran’s only current discussions are with Oman concerning the Strait of Hormuz.
The conflicting statements have heightened uncertainty over the peace‑talk process and the broader conflict, now in its sixth month.
Trump’s assertion about new negotiations came a day after he said on Truth Social that he had agreed to cancel a massive strike against Iran “subject to being able to rapidly make a DEAL.” He said in the same post that Iran and other Middle Eastern countries had asked him to hold off on that attack because “the perimeters of a deal has been agreed to.”
Trump has claimed dozens of times throughout the more‑than‑five‑month‑long war that a deal is at hand. No permanent deal has been signed, and a temporary ceasefire reached in June has fallen apart.
Trump has also repeatedly threatened to launch devastating strikes against Iran before backing off. After the latest example, oil prices on Monday fell and stocks surged.
BMI, a research unit of Fitch Solutions, said in a note Monday that a broader diplomatic understanding on reopening the Strait of Hormuz is still achievable this quarter, while raising the probability of its escalation scenario to 35% from 25%, citing mounting military, diplomatic and economic signs of rising U.S.-Iran tensions.
“Diplomatic progress is likely to be punctuated by periodic military flare-ups, while miscalculation by either side could trigger a renewed escalation,” BMI analysts wrote in a note. The firm said the key issue to watch is the future governance of the strait, as the Iran-Oman talks — potentially backed by Gulf states, China and the U.S. — point to efforts to build a post-conflict shipping framework.
Shipping risks persist even as diplomacy appears to be advancing. The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations Centre said it received a report of an incident 20 nautical miles (23 miles) northeast of Khasab, Oman — at the mouth of the strait — with a tanker’s master reporting an explosion in close proximity to the vessel at about 20:37 UTC Sunday (4:37 pm ET). The vessel and crew were safe and authorities are investigating, UKMTO said, advising ships to transit with caution.
The proposal Trump announced over the weekend calls for the U.S. and Iran to return to negotiations and continue ironing out some of the thorny issues that had derailed diplomatic efforts, according to The Associated Press, citing a regional official involved in the mediation efforts.
The official said the proposal also includes a reopening of the Hormuz Strait and halting attacks across the region, including by Iranian-backed militias in Iraq on the Arab Gulf countries and Jordan.
The U.S., for its part, will end its naval blockade on Iran and allow Tehran to export its oil, the official said, adding that no deal has been reached, although the mediation efforts remained underway.
Trump’s weekend reversal has lowered the temperature after days of escalating attacks across the Gulf. Kuwait said Saturday that Iranian forces launched a wave of drones within its airspace, with its military destroying multiple aircraft after Iran targeted critical infrastructure in the country’s north.
A parallel track with Muscat is also advancing. Iranian diplomats said Tehran was close to reaching a new arrangement with Oman to manage shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a deal critical to preventing the war from escalating further, according to the Financial Times.
Iranian officials said negotiations over future management of the Hormuz Strait with Oman, which sits on the opposite shore of the waterway, are in their final stages. The agreed shipping route would be different from those used before, according to Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson, Baghaei, adding that the new route was separate from the issue of the strait’s reopening or continued closure.
Technologies
Oil Prices Slide as Trump Halts Planned Iran Strike
Oil prices dropped after Trump cancelled a planned strike on Iran, with WTI down about 5% and Brent near 5% lower. He said the move followed requests from Tehran and regional allies for a pause while a deal shaping the Strait of Hormuz and Iran’s nuclear program is negotiated.
Oil prices fell on Monday after President Donald Trump announced he had cancelled a planned strike on Iran. WTI futures dropped roughly 5% to $80.34 a barrel, while Brent slipped about 4.7% to $83.77 a barrel.
Trump said early Sunday he called off the strike after Iran and several Middle Eastern nations asked him to hold off, noting that the outlines of a deal had been agreed upon. He added that the prospective accord would entail the immediate, full opening of the Strait of Hormuz and an end to Iran’s nuclear ambitions, according to his Truth Social post.
The president had been considering another round of strikes as diplomatic hopes waned since the conflict began on February 28. He said the U.S. and Iran would meet for talks on Monday, but Iran denied any scheduled negotiations with Washington, citing PressTV. Iran’s foreign‑ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei clarified that Tehran was only discussing shipping routes through the Strait of Hormuz with Oman. In a follow‑up Truth Social message, Trump insisted that, regardless of Iran’s acknowledgment, the United States is indeed discussing a solution to a long‑standing problem created by Iran.
Technologies
Oil Prices Drop as Trump Cancels Planned Attack on Iran
Oil prices fell sharply after President Trump announced the cancellation of a planned strike on Iran, citing a new deal that would open the Hormuz Strait and end Iran’s nuclear threat.
Oil prices fell sharply on Monday after President Donald Trump announced that he had called off a planned strike on Iran.
West Texas Intermediate futures, the U.S. benchmark, slipped roughly 5% to close at $80.34 per barrel, while Brent crude, the international benchmark, declined 4.7% to settle at $83.77 a barrel.
Trump made the announcement early Sunday, saying he had canceled the strike following requests from Tehran and other Middle Eastern countries.
In a Truth Social post, he wrote: “We have just been asked by Iran, and other Middle Eastern Countries, to hold off any attack in that the perimeters of a deal has been agreed to.”
The president indicated that the proposed agreement would include the immediate, complete, and total opening of the Hormuz Strait, as well as an end to Iran’s nuclear threat.
Trump had been weighing additional strikes amid diminishing prospects for a diplomatic resolution to the conflict that began on Feb. 28. He stated that the U.S. and Iran would hold negotiations on Monday.
Tehran denied that talks were planned with Washington, according to state news outlet PressTV.
Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei said Tehran was only holding talks with Oman regarding the routes ships can use through the Strait of Hormuz.
In a subsequent Truth Social post, Trump added that whether “Iran wants to admit it or not, we are, in fact, talking of a solution to a problem that they have caused for decades.”
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