Technologies

RAM Shortage Could Kill Budget Phones: The Latest Predictions at MWC 2026

Skyrocketing memory costs mean bleaker projections than even the worst predictions analysts made before.

The race to build AI infrastructure has gobbled up so much memory that prices have skyrocketed, with analysts predicting that product costs will rise as a result. But the outlook is far worse than anticipated. New reports and forecasts suggest that the RAM shortage could prompt manufacturers of cheaper devices to reduce or even stop production for some time.

Smartphone shipments are expected to drop by 13% through 2026 compared with last year, according to the International Data Corporation. This won’t just be a temporary crisis, but “a tsunami-like shock originating in the memory supply chain, with ripple effects spreading across the entire consumer electronics industry,” Francisco Jeronimo, vice president for Worldwide Client Devices at IDC, had previously said in a statement.

When reached at MWC 2026, Jeronimo predicted that this impact won’t happen immediately. Phone sales will stay pretty static over the first quarter of the year (which is almost over) as distributors buy as much stock as they can, but the shortage will start affecting phone production around the second quarter, between April and June.

Phones are already getting more expensive, as analysts predicted. The Samsung Galaxy S26 and S26 Plus, which both launched with a $100 price hike over their predecessors — though they also bumped the minimum storage to 256GB from 128GB. But the premium segment likely won’t be as affected as lower-cost, higher-volume phones, said Anshel Sag, principal analyst at Moor Insights and Strategy.

“That’s why you’re already seeing the Chinese [phone manufacturers] have to jack up prices already,” Sag said.

With the shortage, RAM prices are spiking, reaching three times last year’s levels, according to a Counterpoint Research report released at the end of February. The cheapest devices, already on thin margins, will likely see their profits evaporate. At that point, it’s not worth selling those phones.

“Some vendors are telling us that they are considering leaving that [budget] segment entirely, because if you sell a phone for $150, and half the cost is memory, where will you make money? There’s no point in selling products, right?” Jeronimo said.

If the cheapest budget segment drops out of the phone industry over the next year, that’s 10% of the global market that will be gone, Jeronimo noted.

The shortage is already affecting plans for the prices of phones set to launch. At MWC 2026, several phones were shown off without finalized prices, like the Unihertz Titan 2 Elite shown off at MWC that is soon being sold on Kickstarter. Before the RAM shortage, the price of an upcoming phone would be set weeks or months in advance of its release to store shelves. Now, it’s too risky to name a price until just before it’s sold. They just might not have enough memory to even supply the first batch of products at the preset price, Jeronimo said, and potentially raise prices thereafter.

As an example, the base Xiaomi 17 recently launched at 999 euros, but Jeronimo predicted that “the price they announced on stage is not the price they [will] see [the phone at]. The price in the store, in many operations, will be 100 euros more than what they said on stage,” he said.

When will the RAM crisis end?

Unlike last year’s tariffs and the financial fluctuations that phone-makers largely absorbed, the RAM shortage is unavoidable — there’s simply a lot less of these components to go around.

“This is not a short-term thing,” Jeronimo said. “You cannot build 1,000 factories in three or four months. [That would] take two to three years.”

At IDC’s current predictions, the crisis won’t last quite that long — only one and a half to two years, Jeronimo clarified. That could be shortened if other, smaller-tier suppliers start producing memory and alleviating the shortage, but the conditions he reported are dire, with RAM manufacturers requiring payment up-front for periodic shipments with the anticipation that the next slew of units could cost more.

But IDC’s analyst also put to bed another potential mitigation that had been floated late last year — that manufacturers would reverse their previous course of increasing RAM with each generation and actually trim it in the next. Even if it were cheaper to use less memory in phones, it would diminish the experience too much, causing too many retailers to return their phones for poor performance, Jeronimo explained. RAM isn’t just used to run AI models — it also lets people keep multiple apps open and operating at once.

On the component side, major companies aren’t commenting on the shortage and have even announced they won’t take questions on the matter at the start of press briefings.

Understandably, higher phone prices will likely lead people to hold off on upgrading, extending the time they keep their current handsets, said Dipanjan Chatterjee, vice president and principal analyst at Forrester. The onus is on the brands to counteract this upgrade lethargy in two ways, he said: diversify revenue streams to lean harder on non-phone sales, like Apple is doing with its services, and second, add more bells and whistles to make price increases more palatable.

Hence, Samsung is increasing the Galaxy S26 storage alongside its price hike. And Samsung itself is better positioned to capture sales with its tradition of strong deals and incentives during a product launch. When the Galaxy S26 lineup launched, it also offered trade-in and promotional deals to offset the $100 price increase, including pairing other gadgets with its phones.

While the RAM shortage is the biggest factor driving these price increases, other factors are at play as well. Global instability, including the recent war in the Middle East, is forcing transportation to be rerouted outside no-fly zones, raising the price of transporting products. Components across the board are getting pricier, too.

The good news is that this price spike won’t last forever. Eventually, the race to build more AI data centers will slow, and in addition to more memory fabrication spinning up, the prices will stabilize. But like every other consumer good that saw a price spike, they likely won’t drop in affordability to where they were before.

“I don’t think the price of memory will go down to the same levels as last year,” Jeronimo said.

Technologies

Trump Maintains US‑Iran Negotiations Continue Amid Tehran’s Denials of Duplicity

President Trump insists that US‑Iran talks are ongoing despite Tehran’s denial of any negotiation plans, while warning that only a deal or total surrender will allow passage through the Strait of Hormuz. Conflicting statements from both sides have heightened uncertainty as the conflict enters its sixth month.

On Monday, President Donald Trump asserted that negotiations between the United States and Iran are still taking place, even after Tehran stated it has no intention of engaging in direct talks with Washington.

In a fiery Truth Social post, Trump labeled Iran’s leaders “unbelievably duplicitous,” claiming they are lying about ongoing peace talks “whether Iran wants to admit it or not.” He repeated his assertion that the United States completely controls the Strait of Hormuz, despite maritime traffic through the crucial route lingering at only a small fraction of pre‑conflict levels.

He wrote, “Nothing reaches Iran unless we allow it, and nothing will pass unless a deal—or total surrender—is achieved.”

Earlier that day, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmail Baghaei told reporters there is no imminent plan for U.S.–Iran negotiations, contradicting Trump’s earlier comment that talks would resume Monday afternoon. Baghaei added that Iran’s only current discussions are with Oman concerning the Strait of Hormuz.

The conflicting statements have heightened uncertainty over the peace‑talk process and the broader conflict, now in its sixth month.

Trump’s assertion about new negotiations came a day after he said on Truth Social that he had agreed to cancel a massive strike against Iran “subject to being able to rapidly make a DEAL.” He said in the same post that Iran and other Middle Eastern countries had asked him to hold off on that attack because “the perimeters of a deal has been agreed to.”

Trump has claimed dozens of times throughout the more‑than‑five‑month‑long war that a deal is at hand. No permanent deal has been signed, and a temporary ceasefire reached in June has fallen apart.

Trump has also repeatedly threatened to launch devastating strikes against Iran before backing off. After the latest example, oil prices on Monday fell and stocks surged.

BMI, a research unit of Fitch Solutions, said in a note Monday that a broader diplomatic understanding on reopening the Strait of Hormuz is still achievable this quarter, while raising the probability of its escalation scenario to 35% from 25%, citing mounting military, diplomatic and economic signs of rising U.S.-Iran tensions.

“Diplomatic progress is likely to be punctuated by periodic military flare-ups, while miscalculation by either side could trigger a renewed escalation,” BMI analysts wrote in a note. The firm said the key issue to watch is the future governance of the strait, as the Iran-Oman talks — potentially backed by Gulf states, China and the U.S. — point to efforts to build a post-conflict shipping framework.

Shipping risks persist even as diplomacy appears to be advancing. The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations Centre said it received a report of an incident 20 nautical miles (23 miles) northeast of Khasab, Oman — at the mouth of the strait — with a tanker’s master reporting an explosion in close proximity to the vessel at about 20:37 UTC Sunday (4:37 pm ET). The vessel and crew were safe and authorities are investigating, UKMTO said, advising ships to transit with caution.

The proposal Trump announced over the weekend calls for the U.S. and Iran to return to negotiations and continue ironing out some of the thorny issues that had derailed diplomatic efforts, according to The Associated Press, citing a regional official involved in the mediation efforts.

The official said the proposal also includes a reopening of the Hormuz Strait and halting attacks across the region, including by Iranian-backed militias in Iraq on the Arab Gulf countries and Jordan.

The U.S., for its part, will end its naval blockade on Iran and allow Tehran to export its oil, the official said, adding that no deal has been reached, although the mediation efforts remained underway.

Trump’s weekend reversal has lowered the temperature after days of escalating attacks across the Gulf. Kuwait said Saturday that Iranian forces launched a wave of drones within its airspace, with its military destroying multiple aircraft after Iran targeted critical infrastructure in the country’s north.

A parallel track with Muscat is also advancing. Iranian diplomats said Tehran was close to reaching a new arrangement with Oman to manage shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a deal critical to preventing the war from escalating further, according to the Financial Times.

Iranian officials said negotiations over future management of the Hormuz Strait with Oman, which sits on the opposite shore of the waterway, are in their final stages. The agreed shipping route would be different from those used before, according to Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson, Baghaei, adding that the new route was separate from the issue of the strait’s reopening or continued closure.

Technologies

Oil Prices Slide as Trump Halts Planned Iran Strike

Oil prices dropped after Trump cancelled a planned strike on Iran, with WTI down about 5% and Brent near 5% lower. He said the move followed requests from Tehran and regional allies for a pause while a deal shaping the Strait of Hormuz and Iran’s nuclear program is negotiated.

Oil prices fell on Monday after President Donald Trump announced he had cancelled a planned strike on Iran. WTI futures dropped roughly 5% to $80.34 a barrel, while Brent slipped about 4.7% to $83.77 a barrel.

Trump said early Sunday he called off the strike after Iran and several Middle Eastern nations asked him to hold off, noting that the outlines of a deal had been agreed upon. He added that the prospective accord would entail the immediate, full opening of the Strait of Hormuz and an end to Iran’s nuclear ambitions, according to his Truth Social post.

The president had been considering another round of strikes as diplomatic hopes waned since the conflict began on February 28. He said the U.S. and Iran would meet for talks on Monday, but Iran denied any scheduled negotiations with Washington, citing PressTV. Iran’s foreign‑ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei clarified that Tehran was only discussing shipping routes through the Strait of Hormuz with Oman. In a follow‑up Truth Social message, Trump insisted that, regardless of Iran’s acknowledgment, the United States is indeed discussing a solution to a long‑standing problem created by Iran.

Technologies

Oil Prices Drop as Trump Cancels Planned Attack on Iran

Oil prices fell sharply after President Trump announced the cancellation of a planned strike on Iran, citing a new deal that would open the Hormuz Strait and end Iran’s nuclear threat.

Oil prices fell sharply on Monday after President Donald Trump announced that he had called off a planned strike on Iran.

West Texas Intermediate futures, the U.S. benchmark, slipped roughly 5% to close at $80.34 per barrel, while Brent crude, the international benchmark, declined 4.7% to settle at $83.77 a barrel.

Trump made the announcement early Sunday, saying he had canceled the strike following requests from Tehran and other Middle Eastern countries.

In a Truth Social post, he wrote: “We have just been asked by Iran, and other Middle Eastern Countries, to hold off any attack in that the perimeters of a deal has been agreed to.”

The president indicated that the proposed agreement would include the immediate, complete, and total opening of the Hormuz Strait, as well as an end to Iran’s nuclear threat.

Trump had been weighing additional strikes amid diminishing prospects for a diplomatic resolution to the conflict that began on Feb. 28. He stated that the U.S. and Iran would hold negotiations on Monday.

Tehran denied that talks were planned with Washington, according to state news outlet PressTV.

Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei said Tehran was only holding talks with Oman regarding the routes ships can use through the Strait of Hormuz.

In a subsequent Truth Social post, Trump added that whether “Iran wants to admit it or not, we are, in fact, talking of a solution to a problem that they have caused for decades.”