Technologies

How the Federal Reserve Actually Affects Mortgage Rates

Experts predict the Fed won’t start cutting rates until the fall at the earliest. That means we’re not likely to see mortgage rates drop below 6.5% for a while.

If you tracked the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decisions last year, you might have been puzzled: The Fed’s three interest rate cuts didn’t bring about lower mortgage rates. In fact, the average rate for a 30-year fixed home loan has hovered around 6.8% for the past several months.

The Fed’s interest rate decisions don’t have a direct or immediate effect on home loan rates. Often, what the central bank says about its future plans can move the market more than its actual rate changes.

On Wednesday, the Fed is expected to hold off on cutting interest rates for the fifth time this year. While mortgage rates might see some ups and downs, many economists think they’ll stay pretty much the same — between 6.5% and 7% — until the economic outlook is clearer.

«Prospective homebuyers should know markets are forward-looking, and changes in mortgage rates can happen well in advance if markets can anticipate it,» said Kara Ng, senior economist at Zillow. «While a July cut is unlikely, markets are closely watching for signals about a possible September reduction,» Ng said.

All eyes will be on Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s post-meeting remarks. If Powell signals concerns about lingering inflation or the chance of fewer cuts, bond yields and mortgage rates are likely to climb. If he expresses optimism about inflation being under control and hints at ongoing policy easing, mortgage rates could dip.

Here’s what you need to know about how the government’s interest rate policy influences your home loan.

What is the Federal Reserve’s relationship to mortgage rates?

The Fed sets and oversees US monetary policy under a dual mandate to maintain price stability and maximum employment. It does this largely by adjusting the federal funds rate, the rate at which banks borrow and lend their money.

When the economy weakens and unemployment rises, the Fed lowers interest rates to encourage spending and propel growth, as it did during the COVID-19 pandemic.

It does the opposite when inflation is high. For example, the Fed raised its benchmark interest rate by more than five percentage points between early 2022 and mid-2023, to slow price growth by curbing consumer borrowing and spending.

Changes in the cost of borrowing set off a slow chain reaction that eventually affects mortgage rates and the housing market, as banks pass along the Fed’s rate hikes or cuts to consumers through longer-term loans, including home loans.

Yet, because mortgage rates respond to several economic factors, it’s not uncommon for the federal funds rate and mortgage rates to move in different directions for some time.

Why is the Fed postponing interest rate cuts?

After making three interest rate cuts in 2024, the Fed has been in a holding pattern throughout 2025. President Trump’s unpredictable tariff campaign, immigration policies and federal cutbacks threaten to drive up prices and drag on growth.

Despite the president’s repeated calls for policymakers to cut borrowing rates immediately, economists say the central bank has good reason to pause.

«Cutting rates prematurely — especially in response to political pressure — could undermine its commitment to controlling inflation,» said Ng. » Ironically, this could cause mortgage rates to rise, not fall, counteracting the intended stimulus.»

Lowering interest rates could allow inflation to surge, which is bad for mortgage rates. Keeping rates high, however, increases the risk of a job-loss recession that would cause widespread financial hardship.

Recent data show inflation making slow but steady progress toward the Fed’s annual target rate of 2%, but price growth is expected to tick back up in the coming months as companies pass on the cost of tariffs onto consumers.

What is the forecast for Fed cuts and mortgage rates in 2025?

While experts now predict an interest rate cut in the fall, Fed Chair Powell remains noncommittal on any specific timeframe.

Inflation could prompt the central bank to forgo one (or both) of its projected rate cuts, which would keep mortgage rates high.

On the flip side, if unemployment spikes — a real possibility given the slowdown in hiring and the uptick in layoffs — the Fed could be forced to implement interest rate cuts. In that case, mortgage rates should gradually ease, though not dramatically.

Most housing market forecasts, which already factor in at least two 0.25% Fed cuts, call for 30-year mortgage rates to stay above 6% throughout 2025.

What factors affect mortgage rates?

Mortgage rates move around for many of the same reasons home prices do: supply, demand, inflation and even the employment rate.

Personal factors, such as a homebuyer’s credit score, down payment and home loan amount, also determine one’s individual mortgage rate. Different loan types and terms also have varying interest rates.

Policy changes: When the Fed adjusts the federal funds rate, it affects many aspects of the economy, including mortgage rates. The federal funds rate affects how much it costs banks to borrow money, which in turn affects what banks charge consumers to make a profit.

Inflation: Generally, when inflation is high, mortgage rates tend to be high. Because inflation chips away at purchasing power, lenders set higher interest rates on loans to make up for that loss and ensure a profit.

Supply and demand: When demand for mortgages is high, lenders tend to raise interest rates. This is because they have only so much capital to lend in the form of home loans. Conversely, when demand for mortgages is low, lenders tend to slash interest rates to attract borrowers.

Bond market activity: Mortgage lenders peg fixed interest rates, like fixed-rate mortgages, to bond rates. Mortgage bonds, also called mortgage-backed securities, are bundles of mortgages sold to investors and are closely tied to the 10-year Treasury. When bond interest rates are high, the bond has less value on the market where investors buy and sell securities, causing mortgage interest rates to go up.

Other key indicators: Employment patterns and other aspects of the economy that affect investor confidence and consumer spending and borrowing also influence mortgage rates. For instance, a strong jobs report and a robust economy could indicate greater demand for housing, which can put upward pressure on mortgage rates. When the economy slows and unemployment is high, mortgage rates tend to be lower.

Read more: Fact Check: Trump Doesn’t Have the Power to Force Lower Interest Rates

Is now a good time to get a mortgage?

Even though timing is everything in the mortgage market, you can’t control what the Fed does. «Forecasting interest rates is nearly impossible in today’s market,» said Ali Wolf, Zonda and NewHomeSource chief economist.

Regardless of the economy, the most important thing when shopping for a mortgage is to make sure you can comfortably afford your monthly payments.

More homebuying advice

Technologies

OpenAI Says It’s Working With Actors to Crack Down on Celebrity Deepfakes in Sora

Bryan Cranston alerted SAG-AFTRA, the actors union, when he saw AI-generated videos of himself made with the AI video app.

OpenAI said Monday it would do more to stop users of its AI video generation app Sora from creating clips with the likenesses of actors and other celebrities after actor Bryan Cranston and the union representing film and TV actors raised concerns that deepfake videos were being made without the performers’ consent.

Actor Bryan Cranston, the Screen Actors Guild-American Federation of Television and Radio Artists (SAG-AFTRA) and several talent agencies said they struck a deal with the ChatGPT maker over the use of celebrities’ likenesses in Sora. The joint statement highlights the intense conflict between AI companies and rights holders like celebrities’ estates, movie studios and talent agencies — and how generative AI tech continues to erode reality for all of us.

Sora, a new sister app to ChatGPT, lets users create and share AI-generated videos. It launched to much fanfare three weeks ago, with AI enthusiasts searching for invite codes. But Sora is unique among AI video generators and social media apps; it lets you use other people’s recorded likenesses to place them in nearly any AI video. It has been, at best, weird and funny, and at worst, a never-ending scroll of deepfakes that are nearly indistinguishable from reality.

Cranston noticed his likeness was being used by Sora users when the app launched, and the Breaking Bad actor alerted his union. The new agreement with the actors’ union and talent agencies reiterates that celebrities will have to opt in to having their likenesses available to be placed into AI-generated video. OpenAI said in the statement that it has «strengthened the guardrails around replication of voice and likeness» and «expressed regret for these unintentional generations.»

OpenAI does have guardrails in place to prevent the creation of videos of well-known people: It rejected my prompt asking for a video of Taylor Swift on stage, for example. But these guardrails aren’t perfect, as we’ve saw last week with a growing trend of people creating videos featuring Rev. Martin Luther King Jr. They ranged from weird deepfakes of the civil rights leader rapping and wrestling in the WWE to overtly racist content.

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The flood of «disrespectful depictions,» as OpenAI called them in a statement on Friday, is part of why the company paused the ability to create videos featuring King.

Statement from OpenAI and King Estate, Inc.
The Estate of Martin Luther King, Jr., Inc. (King, Inc.) and OpenAI have worked together to address how Dr. Martin Luther King Jr.’s likeness is represented in Sora generations. Some users generated disrespectful depictions of Dr.…

— OpenAI Newsroom (@OpenAINewsroom) October 17, 2025

Bernice A. King, his daughter, last week publicly asked people to stop sending her AI-generated videos of her father. She was echoing comedian Robin Williams’ daughter, Zelda, who called these sorts of AI videos «gross.»

I concur concerning my father.
Please stop. #RobinWilliams #MLK #AI https://t.co/SImVIP30iN

— Be A King (@BerniceKing) October 7, 2025

OpenAI said it «believes public figures and their families should ultimately have control over how their likeness is used» and that «authorized representatives» of public figures and their estates can request that their likeness not be included in Sora. In this case, King’s estate is the entity responsible for choosing how his likeness is used.

This isn’t the first time OpenAI has leaned on others to make those calls. Before Sora’s launch, the company reportedly told a number of Hollywood-adjacent talent agencies that they would have to opt out of having their intellectual property included in Sora. But that initial approach didn’t square with decades of copyright law — usually, companies need to license protected content before using it — and OpenAI reversed its stance a few days later. It’s one example of how AI companies and creators are clashing over copyright, including through high-profile lawsuits.

(Disclosure: Ziff Davis, CNET’s parent company, in April filed a lawsuit against OpenAI, alleging it infringed Ziff Davis copyrights in training and operating its AI systems.)

Technologies

Today’s NYT Connections Hints, Answers and Help for Oct. 21, #863

Here are some hints and the answers for the NYT Connections puzzle for Oct. 21, #863.

Looking for the most recent Connections answers? Click here for today’s Connections hints, as well as our daily answers and hints for The New York Times Mini Crossword, Wordle, Connections: Sports Edition and Strands puzzles.

Today’s NYT Connections puzzle has a diverse mix of topics. Remember when you see a word like «does» that it could have multiple meanings. Read on for clues and today’s Connections answers.

The Times now has a Connections Bot, like the one for Wordle. Go there after you play to receive a numeric score and to have the program analyze your answers. Players who are registered with the Times Games section can now nerd out by following their progress, including the number of puzzles completed, win rate, number of times they nabbed a perfect score and their win streak.

Read more: Hints, Tips and Strategies to Help You Win at NYT Connections Every Time

Hints for today’s Connections groups

Here are four hints for the groupings in today’s Connections puzzle, ranked from the easiest yellow group to the tough (and sometimes bizarre) purple group.

Yellow group hint: Deal me in.

Green group hint: I can get that.

Blue group hint: Hoops.

Purple group hint: The clicker.

Answers for today’s Connections groups

Yellow group: Playing cards.

Green group: Takes on.

Blue group: N.B.A. teams.

Purple group: Things you can control with remotes.

Read more: Wordle Cheat Sheet: Here Are the Most Popular Letters Used in English Words

What are today’s Connections answers?

The yellow words in today’s Connections

The theme is playing cards. The four answers are aces, jacks, kings and queens.

The green words in today’s Connections

The theme is takes on. The four answers are addresses, does, handles and tackles.

The blue words in today’s Connections

The theme is N.B.A. teams. The four answers are Bucks, Bulls, Hornets and Spurs.

The purple words in today’s Connections

The theme is things you can control with remotes. The four answers are drones, garage doors, televisions and Wiis.

Technologies

Ninja Gaiden 4 Review: The Comeback Fans Have Been Waiting For

PlatinumGames and Team Ninja revive the franchise with pure adrenaline.

With 2025 coming to a close, so is the «Year of the Ninja» for video games. What kicked off in a big way with a surprise remaster of 2008’s Ninja Gaiden 2 Black and Assassin’s Creed: Shadows, now ends with the release of Ninja Gaiden 4.

Developed in partnership with longtime series studio Team Ninja and action game specialists PlatinumGames, Ninja Gaiden 4 is the first new 3D entry in the franchise since 2012, following the retro 2D release of Ninja Gaiden: Ragebound in July. As expected from a series known for its fast-paced slashing action, Ninja Gaiden 4 delivers plenty of stylish combat — but not much beyond that.

Ninja Gaiden 4 introduces a new protagonist, Yakumo, who replaces longtime series hero Ryu Hayabusa. It’s a similar move to what publisher Tecmo Koei did with Ninja Gaiden: Ragebound. As part of the Raven clan, a rival of Ryu’s Dragon clan, Yakumo doesn’t differ that much from the series’ previous main character. Don’t worry, Ryu fans: He does show up in the game.

Yakumo’s quest in Ninja Gaiden 4 is to defeat the Dark Dragon, an evil deity who has been the series’ primary villain. Standing in Yakumo’s way is the Divine Dragon Order, which defends the beast and controls the futuristic Tokyo setting of the game.

Does the story make a lot of sense? Not really, except to fans who already know the ins and outs of the Ninja Gaiden lore. Does that matter? Absolutely not, because all you need to know is where to go to slice up more enemies, which Yakumo is stellar at.

Go Ninja Go

To say Ninja Gaiden 4’s action is fast is almost an understatement, which is to be expected. The series was already focused on rapid combat that requires quick reactions, even prior to PlatinumGames’ involvement. The developer took on Ninja Gaiden 4 after revolutionizing the hack-and-slash action game genre with the Bayonetta series and games like Nier: Automata.

If you’ve played plenty of hack-and-slash games, Ninja Gaiden 4’s combat formula will be familiar. Yakumo has weak and heavy attacks, and chaining these together creates your standard combos. The more enemies he defeats, the more money and points he gets to unlock new moves and weapon skills. Some of the new moves extend Yakumo’s combos for longer sequences of attacks and against more enemies, while others are defensive, allowing him to unleash a powerful riposte after parrying an enemy attack.

Yakumo starts off his journey with his twin blades, but he finds more weapons throughout the game. A favorite of mine is the Magashuti staff that has a long reach to attack multiple enemies as Yakumo spins it around himself.

Where Yakumo differs greatly from Ryu is his Bloodraven form. Unleashed when attacking with the left trigger held down, it changes Yakumo’s weapon to do greater damage. The Magashuti, for example, will take the form of a giant hammer whenever Yakumo uses his Bloodraven form. Certain enemies and bosses have armor that can deflect or reduce the power of Yakumo’s attack, so you’ll need to switch to Bloodraven form to break that armor.

All of these mechanics make for unrivaled action. Players who spend enough time practicing will engage in beautiful dances of slashing weapons. The fact is, there are times when the action feels just a bit too fast, even for my veteran gaming reflexes. Trying to maneuver to certain areas or to talk with a non-playable character sometimes had me jumping off walls while hardly touching the controller. It almost takes more work to keep Yakumo still, especially after unlocking so many of his skills. There was also an instance when I did a finishing move to an enemy, and the animation pushed me out of bounds, causing me to have to reload to my last checkpoint.

Arguably, the biggest frustration for me was the lock-on button. It was not intuitive at all, as it had no rhyme or reason for what it was locking onto. Even when I was fighting just the boss, it still never fully locked onto it as every other action game does.

Also, what might be a bit of a downer for some Ninja Gaiden fans, this entry in the franchise is noticeably the easiest of the bunch. Thanks to healing items and equipable accessories, I died maybe once or twice per chapter. If a certain boss kills you too many times, the game will give you free items and even an NPC to help. For those who want more of a challenge, there’s a higher difficulty option available, but players with reasonable skill should be able to coast through the game otherwise.

A Feast for Ninja Eyes

Another mainstay of the Ninja Gaiden franchise is the beautiful visuals. As the game takes place in a futuristic Japan, the development team really leaned into the cyberpunk-like look of a city bathed in neon and glass.

This excels in the moments when Yakumo has to traverse in the most ninja ways, such as sliding on the train rails high above the city or gliding on rushing winds that blow through the mountain pass. These are the moments where you don’t have to worry about enemies attacking or creating the fanciest combos. You can just look around and take in these beautiful graphics.

Combine these visuals with an excellent soundtrack and solid voice acting, and you have a presentation worthy of being included in the Ninja Gaiden series.

Despite these quality elements, Ninja Gaiden 4 is a good reboot but not revolutionary. PlatinumGames resurrected the franchise 13 years after the last main entry, but didn’t take it in any different direction that would give this mass appeal to the gaming public. It’s an exciting 7 to 8 hours to beat, but I didn’t feel like jumping right back in.

Ninja Gaiden 4 will not be up for Game of the Year, or likely even considered one of the best games in the series, but that doesn’t matter. This is a game for anyone who just wants to feel like a badass ninja carving up enemies in the blink of an eye, because sometimes that’s all you want.

Ninja Gaiden 4 will be released on Oct. 21 for $70 on PC, PS5 and Xbox Series X|S consoles. It will be available for Xbox Game Pass on day 1.