Technologies

Worse Than a Recession? Trump’s Tariffs Risk ‘Self-Inflicted’ Stagflation

Stagflation isn’t just a thing of the past. High inflation and economic stagnation could bring it back.

President Donald Trump’s turbulent tariff agenda, combined with mass deportations and increased national debt, has created heightened volatility in financial markets. Though many economists say there’s low risk of a job-loss recession, others say we’re at a critical crossroads, as consumer sentiment sours and the labor market sputters.

Some analysts have even posited that the economy could be circling the drain toward stagflation, a rare and toxic scenario of slowing growth and high inflation. In the 1970s, stagflation — a combination of inflation and stagnation — was a major economic crisis characterized by double-digit inflation, steep interest rates and soaring unemployment.

In a June study by Apollo Global Management, chief economist Torsten Sløk warned of ongoing stagflationary risks. «Tariff hikes are typically stagflationary shocks — they simultaneously increase the probability of an economic slowdown while putting upward pressure on prices,» Sløk wrote. «The current tariff regime increases the chance of a US recession to 25% over the next 12 months.»

Stagflation is considered to be an even worse economic prognosis than a typical downturn, as the government lacks effective policy prescriptions to control it. «There may not be an easy path to monetary or fiscal stabilization,» said James Galbraith, economics professor at the Lyndon B. Johnson School of Public Affairs at the University of Texas at Austin.

US households, already struggling to afford the high cost of living, are preparing for what’s next. Whether we’re headed for a recession or a period of stagflation, taking steps to proactively safeguard your finances becomes all the more critical.

Are we still at risk of a recession?

Rampant economic uncertainty often triggers recessionary conditions as companies and households start to reduce spending and investment. During a recession, unemployment goes up, and the prices of goods begin to decline. It’s generally harder to obtain financing, as banks tighten their requirements to minimize their risk of lending to borrowers who may default on loans.

The economy regularly experiences periods of booms and busts, with downturns occurring roughly every five to seven years. «We are due for a reset and a slowdown in the economy,» said Greg Sher, managing director at NFM Lending.

Certain macroeconomic hallmarks, like shrinking GDP and rising joblessness, are consistent across all recessions. But every US recession is also unique, with a different historical trigger. The Great Recession of 2007-09, which kicked off with the subprime mortgage crisis and the collapse of financial institutions, was the longest. The COVID-19 pandemic recession, resulting from lockdowns and the loss of 24 million jobs, was the shortest recession on record.

Working-class and middle-class households experience the day-to-day hardship of a recession well before the National Bureau of Economic Research makes the official call. Folks on the margins also experience a much slower recovery after a recession is declared to be over.

Relying on hard data like GDP and employment to determine recessions is faulty. Because those figures are backward-looking, they tell us where the economy was before, not necessarily where it’s heading. Many economists note that unemployment is worse than what the headline figures report.

Here are some of the key warning signs of a recession:

Declining gross domestic product (GDP)	A sustained drop (typically two consecutive quarters of negative growth) in the country’s total output of goods and services signals the economy is shrinking.
Rising unemployment	When businesses cut costs, hiring slows down and layoffs increase for a sustained period. Households receive less income and spend less.
Declining retail sales	When people buy fewer goods in stores and online, it shows weakening demand, a key driver of the economy.
Stock market slumps	A significant and lasting drop in stock prices often reflects investor worry about the economy’s future.
Inverted yield curve	When short-term bond interest rates become higher than long-term rates, it can signal that investors expect a weaker economy ahead.

Could we be facing stagflation?

Stagflation would mean having less purchasing power as prices go up and saving becomes more difficult. Jobs become harder to find, investments might take hits and interest rates could rise. Stagflation is typically measured by the «misery index,» the sum of the unemployment rate and the inflation rate, reflecting the level of economic distress felt by the average person.

For decades, experts didn’t believe stagflation was possible because it goes against basic principles of supply and demand. Usually, when more people are out of work, prices go down because demand for goods and services is lower.

But stagflation began to rear its head in the 1970s. Growing government debt, fueled by military spending on the Vietnam War, sent prices soaring. Soon after, the energy crisis hit. In 1973, OPEC’s oil embargo resulted in a massive supply shock, worsening inflation and depressing output.

Official unemployment peaked at 9% while inflation kept ratcheting higher and eventually surpassed 14% year over year. A second oil supply shock in 1979 prompted the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates to record highs, above 20%. While that approach worked to bring inflation down, it prompted a severe recession.

Most economists say the likelihood of entering a period of stagflation is still quite low, but others like Sløk warn that Trump’s trade policies could fuel the fire. At the same time, the dollar and the balance sheets of major financial institutions are in a much stronger position than in the 1970s.

What role do tariffs play?

Since February, new import taxes have been announced, delayed, raised and reduced in quick succession. If tariffs are eventually implemented as announced, the average rate on US imports will be the highest in a century, back to the levels last witnessed during the Great Depression.

Tariffs, which are import taxes on goods from another country paid by the importer, can have a similar effect to oil supply shocks, causing widespread disruptions and cost increases along supply chains. Companies either pass on those increases to domestic customers, triggering more inflation, or they cut back on investments and output, leading to layoffs and weakened growth.

«Big tariffs right now wouldn’t just make inflation worse — they could set off a chain reaction of economic trouble that central banks and governments aren’t ready to handle,» said Sher. According to Sher, there’s a misguided assumption that consumers will be willing to pay the higher cost of goods brought on by tariffs. «Consumers will be more likely to sit on their hands and stop spending, which will further stoke the recession flames,» said Sher.

There are signs that tariff-related uncertainty is causing cracks in the labor market. Even as unemployment remains relatively low, currently at 4.1% according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, hiring has slowed and those currently out of work are finding it nearly impossible to find gainful employment.

Is there a solution to stagflation?

There’s an established, if imperfect, playbook for diminishing the impact of a recession. The Fed, which is in charge of maintaining price stability and maximizing employment, usually lowers interest rates to stimulate the economy and buoy employment during a downturn.

When inflation is high, however, the Fed typically raises interest rates to combat price growth and slow down the economy by making credit and borrowing more expensive for consumers and businesses. The two approaches can’t be taken simultaneously.

«While prices are on the firm side and growth has cooled from a too-warm pace, unemployment remains closer to historic lows than not,» said Keith Gumbinger, vice president at housing market news site HSH.com. «We don’t have stagflation per se, at least as yet.»

Gumbinger said stagflation is more intractable than a recession. It has a trickier path because the go-to policies used to address one problem often worsen the other.

Right now the Fed is in a bind. Lower interest rates can boost a weaker economy, but they can also stoke inflation. If inflation remains sticky, the central bank is more likely to continue pausing rate cuts. The president’s habit of making knee-jerk policy announcements, only to delay or reverse them weeks later, makes it even harder for policymakers to course correct.

That kind of government paralysis could drag out economic hardship, especially for the most financially and socially vulnerable populations. While the average recession lasts about 11 months, the last bout of stagflation in the US lasted more than 10 years.

If a recession or stagflation materializes, it would be a «self-inflicted» injury resulting directly from US government policy, said Kathryn Anne Edwards, labor economist and independent policy consultant.

How can you prepare for an economic downturn?

Stagflation could feel like a recession with the added pain of high prices, making it difficult to prepare for and even harder to navigate. Still, experts say you’ll want to take some of the same steps you would ahead of an economic downturn.

Establish your emergency fund. Having an emergency fund is a good idea in any economy. During an economic downturn, high unemployment can make it harder to get back on solid financial footing if you have a sudden expense. If your savings cover at least three to six months of living expenses, you can more easily weather a financial storm without relying on credit cards or retirement savings.

Make a financial plan. Focus on paying down debt, particularly high interest credit card debt, so you don’t have to carry a balance when times are tougher. Postpone making any major purchases that overstretch your budget and that you’ll regret having to pay off in a year or two. Avoid panic buying things like laptops, phones or cars just to get ahead of expected price increases.

Review your investments. Given the level of economic uncertainty, expect the stock market to have more volatility. If you mostly have high-risk investments, consider diversifying with a variety of low-risk accounts, or combining stocks and bonds. Consult with an adviser about inflation-resistant assets and having a more balanced portfolio based on your individual risk tolerance, age and financial goals.

I Accidentally Learned Just How Durable the Galaxy Z Flip 7 Is

Commentary: Samsung’s Galaxy Z Flip 7 comes with a welcome overhaul to its design. And I can definitely vouch for the new phone’s sturdiness.

If you’re concerned about how durable Samsung’s foldable phones can be, I’m here to tell you not to worry. And that’s especially true when it comes to the new Galaxy Z Flip 7.

After less than six hours with the Galaxy Z Flip 7, I accidentally performed my own informal drop test. At a catered affair in Brooklyn, I walked outside to get a view of the waterfront, and when I pulled the Z Flip 7 out of my pocket, I fumbled it. I watched helplessly as Samsung’s newest foldable phone fell to the ground. The noise it made when it clacked against the concrete caused everyone around to look at me with a knowing, sympathetic expression that said, «Aw, that’s a shame. Your phone is toast.»

Have you ever dropped your phone? There’s that Schrödinger’s cat-like moment before you pick it up when you’re anxious to see if the phone survived.

Fortunately, the Galaxy Z Flip 7 was fine. The 4.1-inch cover screen didn’t have any cracks or scuffs. The 6.9-inch inner display was unharmed because the phone was shut. The only tell that it kissed the ground was a tiny scuff on the bottom of the phone near the microphones. Samsung’s claim that its new «Armour Flex Hinge» is built to withstand impact is indeed true.

In the early days of foldable phones, one of the biggest unknowns was their durability. It’s amazing that about six years later, the Galaxy Z Flip 7 can handle being dropped on concrete like it had landed on a velvet pillow. Now, I still wouldn’t take the Flip 7 (or any foldable phone) to the beach, as it can only withstand particles that are 1mm or larger. So going to a confetti factory would be fine, but a salt factory is a definite no-no.

The Galaxy Z Flip 7’s thin design

The star of Samsung’s Galaxy Unpacked event was the Galaxy Z Fold 7. At 8.9mm thick when closed, the Fold 7 is ridiculously thin. The Galaxy Z Flip 7 looks like it also went on Ozempic, but it’s 13.7mm thick when closed. That’s slim, but not Fold 7 slim. Why couldn’t the Flip 7 be super slim like the Fold 7? I just keep imagining a Galaxy Z Flip 8 with the same thinness as the Fold 7.

For some perspective, here’s how the Flip 7 compares to its clamshell kinfolk:

Galaxy Z Flip 7 thickness vs. other flip phones

Phone	Closed	Open
Samsung Galaxy Z Flip 7	13.7mm	6.5mm
Samsung Galaxy Z Flip 6	14.9mm	6.9mm
Motorola Razr Plus	15.32mm	7.09mm
Motorola Razr Ultra	15.69mm	7.19mm
Motorola Razr (2025)	15.85mm	7.25mm

The Galaxy Z Flip 7’s big cover screen

The original Galaxy Z Flip had a tiny, 1.1-inch pill-shaped cover display. It was perfect for showing the time but pretty much useless for anything else. The defining feature on the Galaxy Z Flip 7 is its 4.1-inch cover display. The screen looks incredible. I was checking my notifications on the screen under direct sunlight and was able to read everything. One of the hang-ups I had reviewing the Galaxy Z Flip 6 was switching from the inner screen to the cover display outdoors. There would be times on sunny days where I could barely make out what was on the cover display, despite having no issues with the main screen.

Samsung has increased the maximum brightness of the Flip 7’s cover screen to 2,600 nits, which is the same as the inner display. Both screens now top out at 120Hz, too, which should make for a much more consistent experience by having system animations, gameplay and scrolling through a social feed look super smooth.

The 6.9-inch inner screen is big, but it doesn’t feel unwieldy when I use it. The Flip 6 had a 6.7-inch display, but that extra 0.2 inches on the Flip 7’s screen makes it feel much bigger, which my middle-aged eyes are grateful for.

In terms of functionality, the cover screen’s natural state is widgets. And some, like Spotify’s widget, are all I need in lieu of using full apps. But I want apps on the home screen, so I need to enable this functionality in the Labs section of Settings and download the MultiStar app. It takes a couple of minutes to set up, but I do wish the interface supported apps by default.

The Galaxy Z Flip 7’s cameras

The Flip 7 has three cameras: a 50-megapixel wide-angle, a 12-megapixel ultrawide and a 10-megapixel selfie camera (in the main 6.9-inch screen). The cameras are the same as those on the Flip 6 and Flip 7 FE. But the phones run on different processors, so differences or improvements in photos and videos (if any) will come from Samsung’s processing and machine learning.

Here are some of my favorite photos from the Galaxy Z Flip 7 so far:

Galaxy Z Flip 7 final thoughts for now

Samsung gave its foldable line a major overhaul. And while the Galaxy Z Fold 7 feels like an entirely different phone from previous Folds, the Galaxy Z Flip 7 seems like a nice refinement. I will say that I’ve had only two days with the phone. And as enamored as I am with the larger cover screen, I’m excited to see how the battery life measures up.

Samsung gave the Flip 7 a 4,300-mAh battery (compared with the Galaxy Z Flip 6’s 4,000-mAh battery), but I wonder if the increased capacity will be offset by the power needed for its Snapdragon 8 Elite chip and those larger, brighter displays.

I have a lot more testing to do. But as I work my way toward a full review, I’ll try not to drop the Flip 7 anymore.

Samsung Galaxy Z Flip 7 specs vs. Motorola Razr Ultra, Samsung Galaxy Z Flip 6

	Samsung Galaxy Z Flip 7	Motorola Razr Ultra (2025)	Samsung Galaxy Z Flip 6
Cover display size, tech, resolution, refresh rate	4.1-inch AMOLED, 948×1,048p, 120Hz refresh rate	4-inch pOLED, 2,992×1,224p, up to 165Hz variable refresh rate	3.4-inch AMOLED; 720×748 pixels; 60Hz refresh rate
Internal display size, tech, resolution, refresh rate	6.9-inch AMOLED, 2,520×1,080p, 1-120Hz refresh rate	7-inch AMOLED; 1,272×1,080p, up to 165Hz variable refresh rate	6.7-inch AMOLED; 2,640×1,080 pixels; 1-120Hz refresh rate
Pixel density	Cover: 342ppi. Internal: 397ppi	Cover: 417 ppi. Internal: 464 ppi	Cover: 306 ppi. Internal: 425 ppi
Dimensions (inches)	Open: 2.96×6.56×0.26 Closed: 2.96×3.37×0.26	Open: 2.91×6.75×0.28 Closed: 2.91×3.47×0.62	Open: 6.5 x 2.83 x 0.27 Closed: 3.35 x 2.83 x 0.59
Dimensions (millimeters)	Open: 75.2×166.7×6.5 Closed: 75.2×85.5×13.7	Open: 73.99×171.48×7.19 Closed: 73.99×88.12×15.69	Open: 165.1×71.9×6.9 Closed: 85.1×71.9×14.9
Weight (grams, ounces)	188 g (6.63 oz)	199 g (7 oz)	187 g (6.6 oz)
Mobile software	Android 16	Android 15	Android 14
Cameras	50 megapixel (main), 12 megapixel (ultrawide)	50 megapixel (wide), 50 megapixel (ultrawide)	50 megapixel (wide), 12 megapixel (ultrawide)
Internal screen camera	10 megapixel	50 megapixel	10 megapixel
Video capture	4K at 60fps	4K	TBD
Processor	Samsung Exynos 2500	Snapdragon 8 Elite	Snapdragon 8 Gen 3
RAM/storage	12GB + 256GB, 12GB + 512GB	16GB + 512GB, 1TB	12GB + 256GB, 512GB
Expandable storage	No	None	None
Battery	4,300 mAh	4,700 mAh	4,000 mAh
Fingerprint sensor	Yes	Side	Side
Connector	USB-C	USB-C	USB-C
Headphone jack	None	None	None
Special features	One UI 8, IP48 water resistance, 25-watt wired charging, Qi wireless charging, Wi-Fi 7, Bluetooth 5.4, Galaxy AI	IP48 rating, 68-watt wired charging, 30-watt wireless charging, 5-watt reverse charging, dual stereo speakers, Corning Gorilla Glass Ceramic cover display, 3,000 nits peak brightness on cover display, 4,500 nits peak brightness on main display, 5G.	IP48 rating, 25-watt wired charging, wireless charging + powershare, 3x optical zoom (up to 10x digital and 30x Space Zoom with AI Super Resolution tech)
US price starts at	$1,100	$1,300	$1,100

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Technologies

War for Westeros, Coming in 2026, Will Let Fans Make Their Own Game of Thrones Ending

The director of the upcoming strategy game chats about how players can forge a different path from the books and show.

For a moment in time, fantasy fans were split between whether Peter Jackson’s Lord of the Rings movies or HBO’s Game of Thrones prestige TV show was the best adaptation of a classic book series. But the Oliphaunt in the room is that the last seasons of the latter plummeted so far in quality that it soured opinions on the show as a whole, especially with its divisive ending. But an upcoming GoT video game adaptation due out in 2026 will give players a chance to set the record straight and make their own new ending to the saga of noble houses, loyalty, betrayal and dragons.

Game of Thrones: War for Westeros, from Australian developer and publisher PlaySide Studios, is a real-time strategy game for PC in which players take on their faction of choice and veer away from the storyline of the books and TV show. Back in June at Summer Game Fest, I descended the stairs below the media lounge into a dimly lit interview spot (the most fantasy dungeon-adjacent spot at the event) to chat with Ryan McMahon, the game’s director.

McMahon explained PlaySide’s vision for the game alongside his own deep affection for the Song of Ice and Fire books and Game of Thrones TV show. In the latter years of the show, he’d hold watch parties with other PlaySide developers to see the latest episodes the night they aired.

PlaySide’s history of RTS games, like its own property Age of Darkness: Final Stand, and work on Warcraft 3: Reforged and Civilization 7 VR, made the strategy genre seem appropriate for its adaptation of the franchise.

«Game of Thrones really felt like a natural fit for that because it’s a show about mass conquest and fighting for territory and leading these armies, as well as the political layers within it,» McMahon said. «There’s a lot of complexity to it that really can shine in a strategy genre.»

That includes representing the warring factions in Game of Thrones as different forces in War for Westeros, each with their own distinct units and strategies. The game will have four playable factions at launch: House Stark with all its minor houses representing the North of the continent of Westeros; House Lannister representing those in the southern half; House Targaryen with the forces she’s collected in the Free Cities, along with her dragons; and finally the Night King with his army of the dead and White Walkers.

While War for Westeros primarily references the Game of Thrones world built in the TV show, PlaySide used lore from the books to fill in the gaps, including among the minor houses and the forces of the Night King, McMahon explained. PlaySide didn’t consult directly with series creator George R.R. Martin, but the studio has consulted the author’s team through rights holder Warner Bros. during development when exploring new territory, McMahon said, «especially when it comes to the White Walkers.»

And while War for Westeros focuses on strategy gameplay over character building and world lore, there are still nods to the source material.

«We definitely are trying to sprinkle as many little Easter eggs and lore mentions where we can to really bring that flavor,» McMahon said. «If you’re a book reader, there will definitely be stuff for you.»

A clash of player-kings

PlaySide is designing War for Westeros’ four factions to be balanced but distinct. In the game, cavalry, siege engines, giants and dragons are among the units unique to each faction, though McMahon declined to elaborate further about how each force will differ from the other, saying PlaySide would share additional details when it was ready to reveal more gameplay.

But even the reveal trailer unveiled during SGF hints at the mechanics and asymmetric units fielded by each faction. The accompanying developer diary showed prealpha gameplay footage that includes columns of foot soldiers arranged to march into battle — some of which were completely incinerated by a massive dragon belching flames.

Though the armies will each have their different units, mechanics, heroes and play styles, PlaySide is striving to keep them balanced against each other — and most importantly, make each side interesting to play.

«We want to make dragons feel powerful, but we want to make sure that the Lannisters, the Starks and the White Walkers all have something that feels like a powerful equivalent that can potentially contest the dragons in some way,» McMahon said.

The developer diary also touches on the political aspect of War for Westeros, though this is less like the systems-heavy diplomacy of strategy games like Civilization 7 and more like the jockeying that happens whenever multiple players are gunning for the win in a tabletop game like Risk or Settlers of Catan. Each playthrough of War for Westeros only ends when one player sits the Iron Throne, so McMahon expects them to naturally form and break alliances at strategic moments — just like in Game of Thrones.

«If I know this person over here [controlling] House Stark is pushing in on the Lannisters, and I’m playing as the Targaryens, that could be my opportunity to push in if they’re ahead,» McMahon said.

Single-player mode will have its own specific layers of political interaction, he added, but the game design’s focus is on how players pit themselves against each other. There will be a game mode where players can set custom modifiers to vary their playthrough and set their own rules. The geography has its own conditions: In the developer diary, there’s footage of an overworld map of Westeros featuring famous locations like Winterfell and King’s Landing. Players won’t be fighting within the iconic castles of the show, but they will clash against enemy armies in handcrafted maps tailored to the various biomes of the continent.

A storm of strategy swords

PlaySide has leaned on its previous strategy experience, making its own RTS, Age of Darkness, and strategy games from other IPs to ensure War for Westeros has a satisfying core gameplay loop. With all that experience, the studio can incorporate layers of complexity while also making it approachable, McMahon said. Given Game of Thrones’ popularity, the game is probably going to be a lot of players’ first RTS (or first in a very long time).

As a game in development, things can always change before War for Westeros comes out in 2026, and McMahon couldn’t say a lot about the game. But I had to ask: What’s the faction McMahon himself likes playing most right now? While his favorite character from the books is Tyrion Lannister, and he really enjoys how the Targaryen hero Daenerys functions, and the faction’s dragons, his sympathies lie with the undead Night King and his White Walkers.

«I’m naturally a very aggressive player in video games, wanting to push forward, take territory, put a lot of pressure on my opponent,» McMahon said. «The White Walkers, as they stand right now, lean heavily into that type of play.»

Much of our conversation centered around the state of the game at launch, with the implication that more could be coming later, though that all depends on how the game is received. Still, McMahon emphasized that the team has a lot of ideas.

«Actually, there’s so much you can do with the world of the Song of Ice and Fire — outside of Westeros, within Westeros — that we can tap into,» McMahon said. «But right now, our focus is on the launch itself. And then, [if] things go well there, there’s a lot we’d love to do.»