Technologies

Worse Than a Recession? Trump’s Tariffs Risk ‘Self-Inflicted’ Stagflation

Stagflation isn’t just a thing of the past. High inflation and economic stagnation could bring it back.

President Donald Trump’s turbulent tariff agenda, combined with mass deportations and increased national debt, has created heightened volatility in financial markets. Though many economists say there’s low risk of a job-loss recession, others say we’re at a critical crossroads, as consumer sentiment sours and the labor market sputters.

Some analysts have even posited that the economy could be circling the drain toward stagflation, a rare and toxic scenario of slowing growth and high inflation. In the 1970s, stagflation — a combination of inflation and stagnation — was a major economic crisis characterized by double-digit inflation, steep interest rates and soaring unemployment.

In a June study by Apollo Global Management, chief economist Torsten Sløk warned of ongoing stagflationary risks. «Tariff hikes are typically stagflationary shocks — they simultaneously increase the probability of an economic slowdown while putting upward pressure on prices,» Sløk wrote. «The current tariff regime increases the chance of a US recession to 25% over the next 12 months.»

Stagflation is considered to be an even worse economic prognosis than a typical downturn, as the government lacks effective policy prescriptions to control it. «There may not be an easy path to monetary or fiscal stabilization,» said James Galbraith, economics professor at the Lyndon B. Johnson School of Public Affairs at the University of Texas at Austin.

US households, already struggling to afford the high cost of living, are preparing for what’s next. Whether we’re headed for a recession or a period of stagflation, taking steps to proactively safeguard your finances becomes all the more critical.

Are we still at risk of a recession?

Rampant economic uncertainty often triggers recessionary conditions as companies and households start to reduce spending and investment. During a recession, unemployment goes up, and the prices of goods begin to decline. It’s generally harder to obtain financing, as banks tighten their requirements to minimize their risk of lending to borrowers who may default on loans.

The economy regularly experiences periods of booms and busts, with downturns occurring roughly every five to seven years. «We are due for a reset and a slowdown in the economy,» said Greg Sher, managing director at NFM Lending.

Certain macroeconomic hallmarks, like shrinking GDP and rising joblessness, are consistent across all recessions. But every US recession is also unique, with a different historical trigger. The Great Recession of 2007-09, which kicked off with the subprime mortgage crisis and the collapse of financial institutions, was the longest. The COVID-19 pandemic recession, resulting from lockdowns and the loss of 24 million jobs, was the shortest recession on record.

Working-class and middle-class households experience the day-to-day hardship of a recession well before the National Bureau of Economic Research makes the official call. Folks on the margins also experience a much slower recovery after a recession is declared to be over.

Relying on hard data like GDP and employment to determine recessions is faulty. Because those figures are backward-looking, they tell us where the economy was before, not necessarily where it’s heading. Many economists note that unemployment is worse than what the headline figures report.

Here are some of the key warning signs of a recession:

Declining gross domestic product (GDP)	A sustained drop (typically two consecutive quarters of negative growth) in the country’s total output of goods and services signals the economy is shrinking.
Rising unemployment	When businesses cut costs, hiring slows down and layoffs increase for a sustained period. Households receive less income and spend less.
Declining retail sales	When people buy fewer goods in stores and online, it shows weakening demand, a key driver of the economy.
Stock market slumps	A significant and lasting drop in stock prices often reflects investor worry about the economy’s future.
Inverted yield curve	When short-term bond interest rates become higher than long-term rates, it can signal that investors expect a weaker economy ahead.

Could we be facing stagflation?

Stagflation would mean having less purchasing power as prices go up and saving becomes more difficult. Jobs become harder to find, investments might take hits and interest rates could rise. Stagflation is typically measured by the «misery index,» the sum of the unemployment rate and the inflation rate, reflecting the level of economic distress felt by the average person.

For decades, experts didn’t believe stagflation was possible because it goes against basic principles of supply and demand. Usually, when more people are out of work, prices go down because demand for goods and services is lower.

But stagflation began to rear its head in the 1970s. Growing government debt, fueled by military spending on the Vietnam War, sent prices soaring. Soon after, the energy crisis hit. In 1973, OPEC’s oil embargo resulted in a massive supply shock, worsening inflation and depressing output.

Official unemployment peaked at 9% while inflation kept ratcheting higher and eventually surpassed 14% year over year. A second oil supply shock in 1979 prompted the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates to record highs, above 20%. While that approach worked to bring inflation down, it prompted a severe recession.

Most economists say the likelihood of entering a period of stagflation is still quite low, but others like Sløk warn that Trump’s trade policies could fuel the fire. At the same time, the dollar and the balance sheets of major financial institutions are in a much stronger position than in the 1970s.

What role do tariffs play?

Since February, new import taxes have been announced, delayed, raised and reduced in quick succession. If tariffs are eventually implemented as announced, the average rate on US imports will be the highest in a century, back to the levels last witnessed during the Great Depression.

Tariffs, which are import taxes on goods from another country paid by the importer, can have a similar effect to oil supply shocks, causing widespread disruptions and cost increases along supply chains. Companies either pass on those increases to domestic customers, triggering more inflation, or they cut back on investments and output, leading to layoffs and weakened growth.

«Big tariffs right now wouldn’t just make inflation worse — they could set off a chain reaction of economic trouble that central banks and governments aren’t ready to handle,» said Sher. According to Sher, there’s a misguided assumption that consumers will be willing to pay the higher cost of goods brought on by tariffs. «Consumers will be more likely to sit on their hands and stop spending, which will further stoke the recession flames,» said Sher.

There are signs that tariff-related uncertainty is causing cracks in the labor market. Even as unemployment remains relatively low, currently at 4.1% according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, hiring has slowed and those currently out of work are finding it nearly impossible to find gainful employment.

Is there a solution to stagflation?

There’s an established, if imperfect, playbook for diminishing the impact of a recession. The Fed, which is in charge of maintaining price stability and maximizing employment, usually lowers interest rates to stimulate the economy and buoy employment during a downturn.

When inflation is high, however, the Fed typically raises interest rates to combat price growth and slow down the economy by making credit and borrowing more expensive for consumers and businesses. The two approaches can’t be taken simultaneously.

«While prices are on the firm side and growth has cooled from a too-warm pace, unemployment remains closer to historic lows than not,» said Keith Gumbinger, vice president at housing market news site HSH.com. «We don’t have stagflation per se, at least as yet.»

Gumbinger said stagflation is more intractable than a recession. It has a trickier path because the go-to policies used to address one problem often worsen the other.

Right now the Fed is in a bind. Lower interest rates can boost a weaker economy, but they can also stoke inflation. If inflation remains sticky, the central bank is more likely to continue pausing rate cuts. The president’s habit of making knee-jerk policy announcements, only to delay or reverse them weeks later, makes it even harder for policymakers to course correct.

That kind of government paralysis could drag out economic hardship, especially for the most financially and socially vulnerable populations. While the average recession lasts about 11 months, the last bout of stagflation in the US lasted more than 10 years.

If a recession or stagflation materializes, it would be a «self-inflicted» injury resulting directly from US government policy, said Kathryn Anne Edwards, labor economist and independent policy consultant.

How can you prepare for an economic downturn?

Stagflation could feel like a recession with the added pain of high prices, making it difficult to prepare for and even harder to navigate. Still, experts say you’ll want to take some of the same steps you would ahead of an economic downturn.

Establish your emergency fund. Having an emergency fund is a good idea in any economy. During an economic downturn, high unemployment can make it harder to get back on solid financial footing if you have a sudden expense. If your savings cover at least three to six months of living expenses, you can more easily weather a financial storm without relying on credit cards or retirement savings.

Make a financial plan. Focus on paying down debt, particularly high interest credit card debt, so you don’t have to carry a balance when times are tougher. Postpone making any major purchases that overstretch your budget and that you’ll regret having to pay off in a year or two. Avoid panic buying things like laptops, phones or cars just to get ahead of expected price increases.

Review your investments. Given the level of economic uncertainty, expect the stock market to have more volatility. If you mostly have high-risk investments, consider diversifying with a variety of low-risk accounts, or combining stocks and bonds. Consult with an adviser about inflation-resistant assets and having a more balanced portfolio based on your individual risk tolerance, age and financial goals.

Today’s NYT Mini Crossword Answers for Thursday, Dec. 25

Here are the answers for The New York Times Mini Crossword for Dec. 25.

Looking for the most recent Mini Crossword answer? Click here for today’s Mini Crossword hints, as well as our daily answers and hints for The New York Times Wordle, Strands, Connections and Connections: Sports Edition puzzles.

Need some help with today’s Mini Crossword? Of course, there’s a very Christmassy clue involved. And once you solve the entire puzzle, look at the letters used in all the answers and see what they have in common. (5-Across will tell you!) Read on for all the answers. And if you could use some hints and guidance for daily solving, check out our Mini Crossword tips.

If you’re looking for today’s Wordle, Connections, Connections: Sports Edition and Strands answers, you can visit CNET’s NYT puzzle hints page.

Read more: Tips and Tricks for Solving The New York Times Mini Crossword

Let’s get to those Mini Crossword clues and answers.

Mini across clues and answers

1A clue: ___ King Cole, singer with the album «The Magic of Christmas»
Answer: NAT

4A clue: Body drawings, informally
Answer: TATS

5A clue: Letters to ___ (what this Mini was made with)
Answer: SANTA

6A clue: Huge fan, in slang
Answer: STAN

7A clue: «Illmatic» rapper
Answer: NAS

Mini down clues and answers

1D clue: Grandmothers, by another name
Answer: NANAS

2D clue: Abbr. before a name on a memo
Answer: ATTN

3D clue: Org. with long lines around the holidays
Answer: TSA

4D clue: «See ya later!»
Answer: TATA

5D clue: Govt.-issued ID
Answer: SSN

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Technologies

Don’t Let a Border Agent Ruin Your Holiday Trip. Travel With a Burner Phone

Yes, you should leave your main phone at home and take a cheap burner this winter.

Prepare for a whole new level of border-crossing anxiety this holiday season: the high-probability of a phone search. New figures from US Customs and Border Protection say agents aren’t just glancing at your lock screen anymore — they are aggressively ramping up device inspections, even for citizens coming home. We aren’t just talking about a quick scroll through your photos, either. Agents are increasingly using forensic tools to clone and analyze everything on your device.

The stats are genuinely alarming. In just a three-month window this year, nearly 15,000 devices were flagged for searches, with over a thousand subjected to deep-dive data copying. If you’re traveling with your primary phone, you are essentially carrying your entire digital existence into a legal gray zone where privacy is optional.

The smartest defensive play is remarkably low-tech: the burner phone. By traveling with a secondary, stripped-down device, you ensure your private data stays safe at home while you stay connected abroad. But privacy isn’t the only perk. Moving to a «dumb» phone is the ultimate digital detox, helping you escape the notification trap that usually ruins a vacation.

Even figures like Conan O’Brien have ditched the smartphone to cut through the noise. Whether you’re dodging invasive border searches or just trying to enjoy your trip without being glued to a screen, a burner might be the best travel investment you make this year.

Read more: Best Prepaid Phone of 2025

Although carriers have offered prepaid phones since the ’90s, «burner phones» or «burners» became popular in the 2000s following the celebrated HBO series The Wire, where they helped characters avoid getting caught by the police. Although often portrayed in that light, burners aren’t only used by criminals; they’re also used anyone concerned with surveillance or privacy infringement.

What is a burner phone, and how does it work? Here’s everything you need to know about burners and how to get one.

Don’t miss any of our unbiased tech content and lab-based reviews. Add CNET as a preferred Google source.

What is a burner phone?

A burner phone is a cheap prepaid phone with no commitments. It comes with a set number of prepaid call minutes, text messages or data, and it’s designed to be disposed of after use.

Burner phones are typically used when you need a phone quickly, without intentions of long-term use. They’re contract-free, and you can grab them off the counter. They’re called burner phones because you can «burn» them (trash them) after use, and the phone can’t be traced back to you, which makes them appealing to criminals. Of course, those committed to illicit activities often do more than just throw these phones in the trash, and often completely obliterate the SIM cards and other materials by smashing them with a hammer or melting them away.

Burners are different from getting a regular, contract-bound cellphone plan that requires your information to be on file.

Why should you use a burner phone?

Burner phones are an easy way to avoid cellphone contracts or spam that you get on your primary phone number. Burners aren’t linked to your identity, so you can avoid being tracked down or contacted.

You don’t have to dispose of a burner phone after use. You can add more minutes and continue using it. Burner phones can still function as regular phones, minus the hassle of a contract.

You can also get a burner phone as a secondary phone for a specific purpose, like having a spare phone number for two-factor authentication texts, for business or to avoid roaming charges while traveling. Burner phones are often used by anyone concerned with privacy.

Burner phones, prepaid phones, smartphones and burner SIMs: What’s the difference?

Burner phones are cheap phones with simple designs that lack the bells and whistles of a smartphone. Because they’re designed to be disposable, you only get the essentials, as seen by the most common version, the flip phone.

All burner phones are prepaid phones, but not all prepaid phones are burners. What sets a burner apart is that you won’t have to give away any personal information to get one, and it won’t be traceable back to you. Again, a burner phone is cheap enough to be destroyed after use.

Prepaid smartphones are generally low-end models. You can use any unlocked smartphone with prepaid SIM cards, essentially making it a prepaid phone.

If you want a burner, you don’t necessarily have to buy a new phone. You can get a burner SIM and use it with an existing phone. Burner SIMs are prepaid SIMs you can get without a contract or giving away personal information.

Where can you buy a burner phone?

Burner phones are available at all major retail outlets, including Best Buy, Target and Walmart. They’re also often available at convenience stores like 7-Eleven, local supermarkets, gas stations and retail phone outlets like Cricket and Metro.

You can get a burner phone with cash, and it should cost between $10 and $50, although it may cost more if you get more minutes and data. If you’re getting a burner phone specifically to avoid having the phone traced back to you, it makes sense to pay with cash instead of a credit card.

If you just want a prepaid secondary phone, you can use a credit card. Just keep in mind that credit cards leave a trail that leads back to you.

There are also many apps that let you get secondary phone numbers, including Google Fi and the Burner app. However, these aren’t burners necessarily because the providers typically have at least some of your personal information. Additionally, apps like Google Talk require a phone number that’s already in use for you to choose a number with the service.

If you’re just looking to get a solid prepaid phone without anonymity, check out our full guide for the best prepaid phone plans available. We also have a guide for the best cheap phone plans.

Technologies

If You Were ‘Tricked’ Into an Amazon Prime Subscription, You Should Have Been Paid by Today

Amazon is paying $1.5 billion to people who mistakenly subscribed to Prime, and the first round of payments are due today.

Amazon Prime provides a lot of valuable benefits to its members, but the company’s registration practices for its premium subscription from 2019 to 2025 led to many customers accidentally subscribing to a service they didn’t want.

Amazon is now paying the price for that deception — the US Federal Trade Commission levied a massive $2.5 billion settlement on the company for its subscription tactics.

The majority of the settlement — $1.5 billion — has been earmarked to refund eligible subscribers, with the rest serving as a civil penalty. Amazon is also now legally required to provide a clear, obvious option to decline Prime, making it as easy to leave the service as it is to join.

Amazon isn’t admitting to shady behavior. «Amazon and our executives have always followed the law, and this settlement allows us to move forward and focus on innovating for customers,» Mark Blafkin, Amazon senior manager, said in a statement. «We work incredibly hard to make it clear and simple for customers to both sign up or cancel their Prime membership, and to offer substantial value for our many millions of loyal Prime members around the world.»

The online retail giant started sending out payments to eligible people in November and was supposed to conclude its initial automatic payments today, Dec. 24. Read on to learn more about Amazon’s settlement and what to do if you think you’re eligible for compensation but didn’t receive a payment.

Why did the FTC fine Amazon?

The FTC filed suit against Amazon, accusing the company of using «dark patterns» to nudge people into Prime subscriptions and then making it too hard to cancel. The FTC maintained Amazon was in violation of Section 5 of the FTC Act and the Restore Online Shoppers’ Confidence Act.

«Specifically, Amazon used manipulative, coercive or deceptive user-interface designs known as ‘dark patterns’ to trick consumers into enrolling in automatically renewing Prime subscriptions,» the FTC complaint stated.

Who’s eligible for Amazon’s payout?

Amazon’s legal settlement is limited to customers who enrolled in Amazon Prime between June 23, 2019, and June 23, 2025. It’s also restricted to customers who subscribed to Prime using a «challenged enrollment flow» or who enrolled in Prime through any method but were unsuccessful in canceling their memberships.

The FTC called out specific enrollment pages, including Prime Video enrollment, the Universal Prime Decision page, the Shipping Option Select page and the Single Page Checkout. To qualify for a payout, claimants must also not have used more than 10 Amazon Prime benefits in any 12-month period.

Customers who signed up via those challenged processes and did not use more than three Prime benefits within one year will be paid automatically by Amazon within 90 days. Other eligible Amazon customers will need to file a claim, and Amazon is required to send notices to those people within 30 days of making its automatic payments.

If you are eligible for the automatic payment, you should have received an email from Amazon by today explaining how to claim the money. You can be paid via PayPal or Venmo. If you prefer a paper check, don’t accept the digital payment. The FTC says Amazon will mail you a check that you must cash within 60 days.

How big will the Amazon payments be?

Payouts to eligible Amazon claimants will be limited to a maximum of $51. That amount could be reduced depending on the number of Amazon Prime benefits you used while subscribed to the service. Those benefits include free two-day shipping, watching shows or movies on Prime Video or Whole Foods grocery discounts.

Customers who qualify for the payments should have received them from Nov. 12 to Dec. 24, 2025.If you are eligible for compensation from Amazon but didn’t receive a payout, you’ll need to file a claim after Amazon starts the claim process. The FTC says it will update its Amazon settlement site once that process has begun.

Customers who did not use a challenged sign-up process but instead were unable to cancel their Prime memberships will also need to file claims for payment.