Technologies

Apple Should Build Its AR on the Meta Quest

Commentary: Its glasses may be on hold, but the immediate future is already in front of us.

Apple’s first-ever VR-AR or “mixed reality” device is expected this year, and already its follow-up product seems to be on hold. According to Bloomberg’s reliable Mark Gurman, a planned set of AR glasses isn’t coming from Apple anytime soon. That’s OK: AR glasses don’t seem like they’re imminent from anyone.

After a trip to Las Vegas to try out some of the emerging technologies around future VR and AR headsets, one thing is increasingly clear: Everyone’s trying to figure out AR glasses, but everyone’s trying to perfect VR headsets. The difference between those two scenarios is bigger than you think.

All-day AR glasses that are useful, work convincingly, have long enough battery life, work with your phone and function as actually legit prescription glasses haven’t materialized, although the pieces are coming into place. Companies like Meta have promised a decade-long path to these glasses. It turns out, maybe, that’s going to be the case for everyone else, too. I’ve seen smart glasses that look real but don’t do much, or glasses with AR that feel chunky and do some things, but don’t quite work with my vision and can’t figure out how to work with my phone yet. Chipmaker Qualcomm is working on this; Google, Apple and Samsung need to solve it someday, too.

In the meantime, VR already has a very real and reasonably popular product that most families I know in the everyday world are familiar with: the Meta (formerly Oculus) Quest 2.

That recognition is no small thing. I think of the Quest’s place in everyday life like the Amazon Echo was years ago: something odd that over time became familiar, normalized. Something reasonably priced, and good enough to do a few things actually well. The Quest 2 is basically a game console. Where Meta has struggled is figuring out how to expand that base beyond gamers.

Following Meta’s playbook is something I expected Apple would do. Heck, I expect most companies are going to do it. The Quest 2 works just like most people imagine it will, or better. It’s a bit of instant magic that’s totally wire-free.

The Quest 2 does have downsides. In fact, those problems emerge the more you use it. I find connecting with friends and social spaces gets weird and buggy, prone to lag, disconnects and way-too-basic avatars. The battery life is bad. For fitness apps, which the Quest 2 can do surprisingly well, it’s still not good at really managing sweat or keeping my glasses from fogging.

Even though Meta wants the Quest 2 and higher-end, work-focused Quest Pro to open up new ways to work by creating virtual monitors around my laptop, the connections and display quality aren’t good enough to be more than a clever experiment most of the time. I can see my laptop keyboard with the Quest Pro’s passthrough cameras, but typing feels awkward and nowhere near as good as when I’m just on my laptop… and I can’t see my phone screen to check messages, either. The Quest can show me phone notifications like a basic smartwatch from a decade ago, but I can’t interact with them.

These VR headsets can even do some basic AR, using passthrough cameras that “mix reality” to show the real world in fuzzier video, with VR layered on top. The effect is sometimes pretty amazing, and could even approach feelings I’ve had with early AR headsets like the Microsoft HoloLens 2.

So where does that put Apple? Clearly, there’s a headset coming soon. And according to Bloomberg’s Gurman, the next goal after this first expensive headset is to work on a more affordable model. It’s like Meta’s approach to the Quest and Quest Pro, in reverse. And there are plenty of things Apple could focus on to make its entry into VR (and AR) worth the effort.

Better comfort, better fitness

The Quest 2 is already an affordable fitness device, and pairs with watches to show heart rate and fitness stats. Apple clearly has an advantage on time spent developing the Apple Watch, fitness and health tracking, and its Fitness Plus subscription video workouts, which also have overlaid fitness stats.

Apple could emphasize workouts and fitness on its headset, with comfortable, breathable straps and face pieces that could feel better for exercise. Meta is starting to realize it needs to improve comfort for VR: A recent Razer partnership using head straps made by CPAP-maker ResMed shows a need for better materials. I’d expect Apple to make this aspect a key part of the headset’s advantages. There are other advantages, too. Apps like Beat Saber and Supernatural use music for fitness, and Apple already has all of Apple Music at its disposal.

Connect better with laptops, iPads, phones, watches

VR headsets right now have an extremely hard time working well with all the other things we have lying around us. I can’t get a Quest to connect nicely with my phone all the time. To work with my laptop, I need a specialized third-party app with its own thing I have to install on my laptop and turn on.

Meanwhile, Apple has been focusing on handoffs and continuity across AirPods, HomePods, iPhones, Apple Watches, MacBooks, Apple TVs… all over the place. That’s what’s needed to make a VR headset seem seamless and integrated into other stuff. I want to check my watch in VR, or use it to control apps. Or use my phone, and also see the phone. Suddenly grab my laptop, and the headset connects. Incoming calls? No problem. Send myself things back and forth from my phone or laptop and get all the files and things I want, and not feel like I’m on a vacation from them. That’s what Apple’s headset could set out to achieve.

That’s a best-case scenario. Much like the first Apple Watch and iPhone, the actual Day 1 functions of this headset might end up disappointing.

Better social

Even though the metaverse is on everyone’s minds, there aren’t many big social spaces in VR that work well. Microsoft’s Altspace is nice, but often feels empty. VRChat is wild, experimental, full of big features and ideas, and feels like a messy explosion that’s hard to jump into. Meta can’t get enough people into Horizon Worlds. Even when these platforms do work, for concerts or events, the limits on people who can attend at once, the lag and drop-off, not to mention the avatar limits, make it a trade-off versus any other way you could connect on a phone or laptop.

Apple may not be able to solve this any better for larger-scale experiences, but for more intimate and several-person FaceTime-like moments, Apple could make shared experiences in VR work a lot better. Meta hasn’t perfected social VR yet, and someone needs to.

Can Apple make a better controller? (Or none?)

The Quest 2 controllers are fine, but all of VR leans on the same game controller-like inputs for headsets. Apple’s headset could lean more on hand tracking, or wearable inputs like the Apple Watch. I’m curious if a more work-oriented controller or accessory can be created that makes the headset feel better for taking on apps beyond games. Meta’s working on a long-term, game-changing shift to neural input wristbands eventually, but it’s unclear whether this approach will end up succeeding.

The Quest platform has continually improved its hand tracking over the years. However, hand tracking’s reliance on particular gestures without any physical feedback is an imperfect solution right now. Maybe Apple tries hand tracking along with using an Apple Watch or the iPhone for tactile haptic feedback, or finds a smaller go-between accessory.

I’ve been trying out experimental haptic technology recently, trying to imagine how VR could think its way to new inputs. This headset feels like the biggest opportunity Apple’s ever faced to create a brand-new type of input device that could make a big impact on the landscape. If it’s done right, maybe it’ll be the input accessory that makes its future AR glasses, whenever they arrive, seem feasible.

Build out more interesting mixed reality

For all the Meta Quest Pro promises to blend AR and VR with its mixed-reality capabilities, not many apps tap into its extras yet. I’ve seen some mind-blowing demos of mixed reality in VR with the ultra-high-end Varjo XR-3 connected to a PC, which at least showed me ways that a VR headset could begin to feel like a portal interconnected to my own home reality. Apple could start experimenting with more engaging AR moments in a high-end VR headset, and at least get the ball rolling on things that work in advance of whenever its AR glasses are ready, years from now.

Smaller sessions in VR may make more sense right now

VR is a thing I don’t use all the time, and that’s true for most people. Maybe that’s exactly where Apple should start. It’s not a given we’ll want to wear AR glasses everywhere, or even what those glasses would be good for. In the meantime, a VR headset at home that’s meant to be worn sometimes, but not all the time, is the place most of us feel safest to start. It’s why the Quest is something people actually use.

It’s also a way to avoid dealing with questions of accommodating true prescription vision needs in everyday glasses, something no one’s succeeded in tackling, either. VR headsets sometimes need prescription inserts, but many just fit right over the glasses we already have. I prefer the easy-fit solution: I don’t need to make VR a thing I spend a whole day in. I’ll settle for a truly useful hour or two, and if Apple can make that hour or two even better than what we have now, that’s a big enough step forward for me.

Editor’s note, Jan. 20: Adds mention of Meta’s hand tracking for the Quest.

Technologies

25 years after 9/11, the U.S. starts rolling back travel restrictions, from liquids to gate access

Years after 9/11, the U.S. government is walking back some security screenings as threats and technology evolve.

The Sept. 11, 2001, terror attacks reshaped how we travel, from how we pack our toiletries to what we wear when we fly. Airport checkpoints for almost a quarter century for most travelers have meant shoes off. Limitations on liquids. And no tearful, cinematic gateside farewells or joyful welcomes.

But 25 years later, the U.S. government is starting to ease some of the restrictions, which include measures that were tied to other attacks attempted in the months after 9/11.

Last year, the Department of Homeland Security, which was formed after the attacks, said flyers can leave their shoes on at airports, a major change for travelers going through regular security.

That rule was introduced after Richard Reid, who became known as the “shoe bomber,” tried and failed to ignite explosive material in his shoe on a Paris-to-Miami flight in December 2001.

Rules for liquids are officially unchanged. Those regulations for liquids in carry-ons stem from 2006, when British officials foiled a plot to bring liquid explosives on flights.

New scanners installed at some airport checkpoints allow travelers to leave liquids in their bags before going through screening, though availability varies by airport and checkpoint. Limits on liquid container size remain in effect.

“The technologies today are better than they were a long time ago and some of the technology that’s been deployed is better than it was five years ago,” said Jeff Price, a professor at the Metropolitan State University of Denver’s Department of Aviation and Aerospace Science and an airport management consultant.

Another change since that era is the number of options customers have for airport screening. The Transportation Security Administration, for $76.75 covering five years, offers PreCheck, in which travelers undergo prescreening services and can use expedited screening lanes.

“If you’ve got a few bucks, yeah, you can reduce the amount of screening and jump the line,” Price said. “The other side of that is when you do become a member of PreCheck, you give up a lot more of your personal data to the government, and that’s the trade-off.”

There’s also a private option with Clear, with a shorter identification check line, in exchange for prescreened biometric data.

Gate greetings return

The new changes are going beyond security.

TSA this week launched a free program allowing eligible trusted travelers, including TSA PreCheck members, to apply for access to secure gate areas without a boarding pass.

The program is called “Gateside,” and the agency has rolled it out at 13 U.S. airports, including Dallas Fort Worth International Airport, Los Angeles International Airport, Detroit Metropolitan Wayne County Airport and Salt Lake City International Airport.

The area beyond TSA screening has been heavily restricted since 9/11. In launching the program, the agency said PreCheck members who use the program can “meet family members at their gate, join a friend on a long layover for lunch or dinner, visit airport dining and shopping locations, or greet service members returning from deployment.”

Participants must apply online one to three days in advance and receive approval before entering through security.

Privatization attempt

Some of the tweaks to security have been more rocky.

The TSA late last month scrapped a program it called TSA Gold+ that would provide privatized security at certain airports.

The new head of TSA, David Cummins, who took the top role in early August, said that a new screening partnership program will “replace TSA Gold+ to better harness the role of the private sector in delivering a safer, more secure, and more efficient aviation system.”

TSA didn’t respond to requests for further comment.

Tampa International Airport in Florida had reviewed the program starting in May, in part because it could shield the airport from the impact of government shutdowns, airport Chief Operating Officer John Tiliacos told reporters last month. Those shutdowns left TSA officers without regular paychecks for months, and staffing shortages led to long lines at airports around the country. The chance to add new technology was also a draw.

Tampa decided not to move forward with the program, and TSA announced its replacement shortly after. Tampa’s Tiliacos told reporters last month “we weren’t quite satisfied that we were getting all of the answers to our questions regarding the technology” and that drove the airport’s decision to opt out.

Evolving threats

While some rules travelers have lived with for decades might be fading, the aviation sector is still dealing with changing threats.

“You have AI. You’ve got cybersecurity issues that continue to pop up. Drones are a major issue,” said Keith Jeffries, vice president of aviation security company K2 Security Screening Group, who is retired from the TSA and was the agency’s security director at Los Angeles International Airport. “It’s the role of security and protecting, especially the transportation sector, it’s getting broader, and other technologies are trying to keep up.”

As security technology evolves, so does the energy of potential attackers to overcome whatever obstacle they have and send their message.

Deterrents are important, but Jeffries said: “There is no such thing as the perfect security mousetrap. It doesn’t exist.”

Technologies

Houthis reportedly advance to key Red Sea island, further threatening crucial oil choke point

The advance raises the threat to shipping near the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, a waterway that connects the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden to global markets.

The Iran-backed Houthis reportedly advanced to Yemen’s strategic Perim Island on Friday, delivering a major boost to the militant group’s push to take control of one of the world’s most important shipping choke points.

The capture of Perim Island, which was reported by several news agencies, citing multiple Yemeni government sources, comes just one day after the Houthis seized Yemen’s port city of Mokha on the Red Sea coast. CNBC could not independently confirm the report.

The rapid ground offensive is seen as a severe setback to Saudi Arabia and the Yemeni forces it backs and puts Iran and its proxies on course to exercise control over two critically important oil choke points on either side of the Arabian Peninsula: the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and the Strait of Hormuz.

Perim Island is a small and rocky area of land that divides the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, a waterway that connects the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden and to global markets.

There are concerns that the Houthis’ advance toward the Bab el-Mandeb Strait could have significant ramifications for global trade, particularly if the militant group ratchets up threats or attacks on Red Sea shipping.

The Houthi advance prompted Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman to personally press President Donald Trump for U.S. military intervention, MS NOW reported later Friday, according to a person familiar with the conversations.

The crown prince spoke with Trump twice Thursday and urged him to strike the Iranian-backed group as it closed in on the Bab el-Mandeb. Trump declined, saying the U.S. does not plan to widen its regional military campaign to include the Houthis, according to the person, who was granted anonymity because of the sensitive nature of the conversations. Axios first reported the calls.

A senior administration official told CNBC the U.S. remains focused on protecting core national security interests, including freedom of navigation in the Red Sea, “while empowering our regional partners to take the lead in managing and resolving regional security challenges.”

The official added that the U.S. is “in continuous dialogue with Saudi Arabia.”

The capture of Mokha marked a “major blow” to Saudi Arabia as it raises the possibility of the group exerting a tighter grip on the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, according to Hamish Kinnear, principal Middle East and North Africa analyst at risk intelligence company Verisk Maplecroft.

Mokha is situated about 75 kilometers (46 miles) north of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.

“The Houthis were already threatening Saudi shipping from previous positions, but their capture of Mocha opens up the possibility of further advances towards the Bab el-Mandeb coastline and a tighter grip on the chokepoint,” Kinnear said in a research note.

As the war continues, Kinnear said both Tehran and Washington believe time is on their side, making a new truce unlikely for now.

“Oil and gas prices, and more specifically refined products such as diesel, will continue to tick upwards while that remains the case – even if US convoys and Strait of Hormuz export alternatives cushion the price impact,” Kinnear said.

The strategic importance of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait has grown significantly since the start of the U.S. and Israel’s war against Iran in late February, with the waterway emerging as an alternative route for crude moving toward Asia.

What next for oil prices?

Oil prices traded sharply lower on Friday, but both major benchmarks could still end the week above $100 per barrel for the first time since mid-May.

International benchmark Brent crude

The resilience of the oil market is being tested by a clearer recognition of the mounting threat to regional supply, strategists at ING said, with energy market participants seen repricing both the duration and severity of the conflict.

Even as flows continue through the Strait of Hormuz, ING’s strategists said flows remain well below prewar levels, underlining how fragile the situation has become.

“Saudi energy infrastructure and crude oil exports from the Red Sea are increasingly at risk, with the Houthis in Yemen targeting Saudi Arabia,” ING’s Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey said in a research note published Friday.

“As the Houthis have taken control of the Red Sea port of Mokha in Yemen, recent events increase the threat to shipping around the Bab al-Mandeb Strait,” they added.

— Luke Fountain contributed to this report.

Technologies

Wall Street firm believes the AI stock market boom is ‘nearing an end.’ Here’s why

Stretched earnings expectations, extreme concentration and surging equity issuance point to growing bubble risks.

A range of equity market bubble indicators show that while the S & P 500 ‘s rally has further to run this year, its medium-term prospects look poor given how frothy the market has become, according to Capital Economics. “Most indicators suggest the AI equity boom is nearing an end,” Capital Economics’ senior market economist James Reilly said Thursday in a note. Capital has been more bullish than most on the stock market since mid-2023, reflecting a view that AI will be a transformative technology. Its year end-2026 S & P 500 forecast has consistently been above consensus. But the firm has also maintained that the AI-driven rally is a bubble that will eventually burst. To assess and spot a late-stage market bubble, Reilly looks at eight indicators including valuations, earnings, index concentration, equity issuance and foreign interest in U.S. equities. Some of those measures are already at or near levels that preceded previous stock market peaks. The analysis shows that while market variables such as earnings expectations look consistent with a market top, others such as volatility and leverage look slightly less alarming. Earnings stand out as the biggest warning sign. Expectations for S & P 500 earnings growth are around levels seen only at the peak of the dot-com bubble, while long-term EPS growth forecasts have surged to a record high. According to Reilly, the heavy concentration of this expected growth in the tech sector means that any signs of weakness in the tech firms’ earnings will weigh heavily on the index. Other indicators are also flashing warning signs. Index concentration is around dot-com-era extremes, net equity issuance has turned positive and foreign ownership of U.S. stocks is at a record high. Reilly said another wave of IPOs and share sales could be particularly significant, since similar issuance booms have historically coincided with market peaks. “On past form, this suggests that the end of the bubble is just months away, rather than years,” he said. Measures of leverage are not yet alarming compared to other factors, though the analyst warns that they are heading in a “concerning direction.” While volatility metrics look consistent with a mid -stage bubble, Reilly notes that constituent -level volatility isn’t as extreme as it was near the end of the dotcom boom. “While we continue to think that the S & P 500 will rally from around 7,650 now to 8,250 by end-2026 , we ultimately forecast it to fall back to 6,500 by end -2027,” he wrote. Those assumptions would equate to 8% upside this year and a 21% slide in 2027.

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