As Western populations age, fewer workers and higher costs will strain public finances, credit rating agency Moody’s has warned.

Europe is at the sharp end of the demographic shift. The European Union’s population is projected to peak as soon as 2029, “after which a sustained long-term decline will begin,” according to the European Commission.

The U.S. Census Bureau does not expect the American population to peak until 2080 under its main projection, or until 2043 under its low-immigration scenario. Excluding immigration impact, the population decline has already started.

But Moody’s says the fiscal pressures from aging emerge long before populations actually start shrinking.

Today, G7 economies have about three working-age people for every person over 65. That ratio is expected to fall to around two by 2050, putting further pressure on growth and public finances, including healthcare systems, according to Moody’s.

Aging populations affect economies through slower economic growth, greater pressure on public finances from pension and care costs, changing consumer demand, and shifts in real interest rates and sovereign yields, Olivier Chemla, vice president of credit strategy and standards at Moody’s, told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Europe” on Friday.

In a report published last week, Moody’s forecasts that the world’s aging populations will have fundamental impacts on the global economy and lead to difficult policy decisions.

While population growth has long been a tailwind for growth and creditworthiness, falling fertility rates and unprecedented speed of changing age structures are now changing that picture, Moody’s writes.

“Fewer workers will limit productive capacity, while fewer households and consumers will weaken demand. As a result, countries will have to rely more on productivity to sustain growth,” the report states.

The AI impact

AI and increased productivity can only partially offset the long-term challenge of an aging workforce, Chemla said.

“This is a partial mitigant because you can certainly replace and enhance the supply side of the economy in factories and in services, but at the same time, robots do not consume – at least not yet – and so on the demand side, you will still be having that gap, which will slow growth,” he added.

And it’s not only Europe and the U.S., but emerging economies are aging rapidly, too. China’s share of people aged 65 and over has doubled from 7% to 14% over the past two decades, with Brazil, Thailand and Turkiye on similar trajectories.

These countries will face the costs of aging at much lower income levels than the advanced economies that aged before them, the report says, noting that in Europe, the same shift took several decades.

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Hello, this is Leonie Kidd coming to you from London. Welcome to another edition of Verum’s Daily Open.

In a jittery market, it doesn’t take much to make the situation worse.

A weaker-than-expected jobs report in the U.S., strained discussions over the French budget, and the risk of a snap election in Spain are creating a wall of uncertainty that is playing out across asset classes.

Throw in some midterms campaign profanity and a contentious runoff in Brazil, and it makes for a tricky environment for investors.

Read on for more.

What you need to know today

Investor discomfort has been playing out across global bond markets, but now currency pairs are also showing signs of pressure.

The Euro has hit a 17-month low against the dollar, falling to its weakest level versus the greenback since May 2025. A combination of economic and political uncertainty has investors on edge, with the French budget debate driving risk sentiment, while speculation of an early election in Spain also has markets jittery.

It’s not all rosy stateside. The jobs report on Friday showed the U.S. economy added just 29,000 roles in September, well short of the 84,000 forecast. However, the major indices rose on the news, as traders priced in a high probability that the Federal Reserve will stay put on interest rates when it meets later in October.

Futures are flat as investors focus on the minutes from the Fed’s latest meeting, due on Wednesday.

‘Fiscal apocalypse’

With U.S. government borrowing costs at their highest level in decades, should investors be bracing for a ‘fiscal apocalypse?’

Experts speaking to Verum said not yet, calling fears of an imminent crisis ‘exaggerated.’

For more, read on here, and join ‘Squawk Box Europe’ for the view from Goldman Sachs co-CEO of International, Anthony Gutman.

Strained relations

Economic uncertainty is putting strain on international relations.

U.S. President Donald Trump has threatened South Korea, saying he will ‘charge more’ if the country fails to sign the Alaska LNG deal.

‘If they don’t want to do it, that’s OK with me. I’ll just charge them more,’ Trump told reporters Friday, according to the White House. ‘Tell them if they don’t sign shortly, I’m going to double it up.’

Trump did not specify what would be doubled.

Meanwhile, the president turned to profanity in a speech during an Ohio rally. He warned voters that financial help for the state would be contingent on a Republican win during the midterm elections.

‘Just get out and vote,’ Trump said at a rally for Republican candidates. ‘If you do that, we’re going to win, and we’re going to win big, and we’re going to shove it up their a–.’nBrazil runoff

Brazilian voters are heading to a runoff election on October 25 after the two leading candidates fell short of the majority required for an outright win. Right-wing Senator Flavio Bolsonaro holds a narrow lead over leftist incumbent Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, who is seeking a fourth term.

A victory for the senator would extend a wave of wins across Latin America by right-wing candidates aligned with U.S. President Trump.

— Leonie Kidd

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And Finally…

Gen Z is betting on sports. Experts warn of the risks

Wagering on sports outcomes has exploded in the 2020s, but recent surveys show just how widespread gambling has become for Generation Z.

A survey of retail investors released in August by Betterment, an investment advisory platform, found that 66% of Gen Z investors participate in sports betting. The Bank of America Institute found in a September report that Gen Z made up almost 50% of all online betting activity in July, during the height of the 2026 FIFA World Cup, outnumbering millennials for the first time.

‘It is more unusual for someone not to have, for example, a Kalshi account, DraftKings … than it is’ to have such an account, said Cynthia Grant, vice president of clinical at Birches Health, which provides online therapy for online gambling addiction recovery. ‘It’s part of the experience of watching sports now.’

— Davis Giangiulio

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Russia admits almost 200 to hospital after scientist dies from plague

Russia has rushed nearly 200 individuals to medical facilities following the death of a prominent researcher who contracted the plague, according to recent reports. The incident has sparked urgent investigations into how the deadly disease spread and raised concerns about potential public health risks.

Authorities have identified the deceased scientist as a leading expert in infectious diseases at a major Russian research institute. Colleagues say he had been working on a project related to bacterial pathogens when he fell ill. Health officials have not disclosed the exact strain of plague, but initial tests confirm it is a lethal form of the disease.

In response, Russian health authorities have activated emergency protocols, deploying medical teams and setting up isolation wards across several regions. Hospitals have reported an influx of patients exhibiting symptoms consistent with plague, including high fevers, swollen lymph nodes, and in some cases, respiratory distress.

Public health experts warn that the rapid onset of multiple hospitalizations could indicate a larger outbreak. “The sudden surge of cases suggests possible transmission beyond the initial victim,” said Dr. Elena Morozova, an epidemiologist at the Russian Academy of Medical Sciences. “We must act swiftly to contain the spread and prevent further casualties.”

Meanwhile, the Russian government has launched a full-scale inquiry into the circumstances surrounding the researcher’s death. Investigations are focusing on laboratory safety protocols, potential exposure during research activities, and any recent interactions with animals known to carry the plague.

The World Health Organization (WHO) has been notified and is monitoring the situation closely. International health officials are offering assistance, but Russian authorities have not yet requested external help, opting instead to manage the crisis domestically.

Local residents have been urged to remain vigilant and report any unusual illness symptoms to health authorities. Authorities have also advised the public to avoid contact with stray animals and to practice strict hygiene measures.

As the investigation continues, the number of hospitalized individuals may rise, highlighting the critical need for rapid response and robust infection control measures in high-security research facilities.