Technologies

Mortgage Rates and the Fed: Everything to Know Before This Week’s Meeting

Don’t expect big changes to mortgage rates soon, as the Fed maintains its cautious approach.

On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve is expected to extend a pause on interest rate cuts for a fourth consecutive time this year. Though mortgage rates could see some volatility, many economists expect them to stay somewhat flat until the economic picture drastically changes.

Rates will stay in the 6.75% to 7.25% range unless the Fed signals multiple cuts soon and backs it up with data, said Nicole Rueth, of the Rueth Team with Movement Mortgage. «Homebuyers waiting on rates to drop drastically might be disappointed,» Rueth said.

The relationship between the central bank’s interest rate decisions and home loan rates isn’t direct or immediate. Case in point: The Fed’s three interest rate cuts in 2024 didn’t translate into cheaper mortgages. The average rate for a 30-year fixed home loan has hovered around 6.8% since late fall.

Often, what the central bank says about future plans can move the market more than its actual actions. Mortgage rates are driven by the bond market, investor expectations and a host of other economic factors.

«Mortgage rates move on expectations, not announcements,» said Rueth.

The focus will be on what Fed Chair Jerome Powell says following the meeting. Should Powell express concern over lingering inflation or a reduced number of rate cuts, bond yields and mortgage rates are expected to rise. If he conveys optimism about inflation and suggests further policy easing, mortgage rates may decline.

«It’s most often the case that longer-term interest rates begin to decline before the Fed cuts rates,» said Keith Gumbinger, vice president at HSH.com.

Here’s what you need to know about how the government’s interest rate policies influence the mortgage market.

What is the Fed’s relationship to mortgage rates?

The Fed sets and oversees US monetary policy under a dual mandate to maintain price stability and maximum employment. It does this largely by adjusting the federal funds rate, the rate at which banks borrow and lend their money.

When the economy weakens and unemployment rises, the Fed lowers interest rates to encourage spending and propel growth, as it did during the COVID-19 pandemic.

It does the opposite when inflation is high. For example, the Fed raised its benchmark interest rate by more than five percentage points between early 2022 and mid-2023 to slow price growth by curbing consumer borrowing and spending.

Changes in the cost of borrowing set off a slow chain reaction that eventually affects mortgage rates and the housing market, as banks pass along the Fed’s rate hikes or cuts to consumers through longer-term loans, including home loans.

Yet, because mortgage rates respond to several economic factors, it’s not uncommon for the federal funds rate and mortgage rates to move in different directions for some time.

Why is the Fed putting off interest rate cuts?

After making three interest rate cuts in 2024, the Fed is now in a holding pattern. With President Donald Trump’s unpredictable tariff campaign, immigration policies and federal cutbacks threatening to drive up prices and drag on growth, economists say the central bank has good reason to pause.

«The Federal Reserve is in one of the trickiest spots in recent economic history,» said Ali Wolf, Zonda and NewHomeSource chief economist.

Lowering interest rates could allow inflation to surge, which is bad for mortgage rates. Keeping rates high, however, increases the risk of a job-loss recession that would cause widespread financial hardship.

Recent data show inflation making slow but steady progress toward the Fed’s annual target rate of 2%. But given the uncertainty surrounding Trump’s economic agenda, the central bank isn’t in a hurry to lower borrowing rates.

What is the forecast for interest rate cuts in 2025?

Though Powell remains noncommittal on any specific time frame, experts now predict an interest rate cut in the fall.

«I’m eyeing September for the first rate cut, if inflation keeps cooling and the labor market weakens,» Rueth said.

However, tariffs are the big wildcard. Rueth said that if a trade war fuels inflation, rates could jump even without a Fed move. Political dysfunction, rising debt and global instability are also a recipe for rate volatility.

«The mortgage market reacts fast to uncertainty, and we’ve got no shortage of it this summer,» Rueth said.

On the flip side, if unemployment spikes — a real possibility given rising jobless claims — the Fed could be forced to implement interest rate cuts earlier than anticipated. In that case, mortgage rates should gradually ease, though not dramatically.

Most housing market forecasts, which already factor in at least two 0.25% Fed cuts, call for 30-year mortgage rates to stay above 6% throughout 2025.

«We might see rates settle into the low to mid-6% by year-end,» Rueth said. «But we’re not going back to 3%.»

What other factors affect mortgage rates?

Mortgage rates move around for many of the same reasons home prices do: supply, demand, inflation and even the employment rate.

Personal factors, such as a homebuyer’s credit score, down payment and home loan amount, also determine one’s individual mortgage rate. Different loan types and terms also have varying interest rates.

Policy changes: When the Fed adjusts the federal funds rate, it affects many aspects of the economy, including mortgage rates. The federal funds rate affects how much it costs banks to borrow money, which in turn affects what banks charge consumers to make a profit.

Inflation: Generally, when inflation is high, mortgage rates tend to be high. Because inflation chips away at purchasing power, lenders set higher interest rates on loans to make up for that loss and ensure a profit.

Supply and demand: When demand for mortgages is high, lenders tend to raise interest rates. This is because they have only so much capital to lend in the form of home loans. Conversely, when demand for mortgages is low, lenders tend to slash interest rates to attract borrowers.

Bond market activity: Mortgage lenders peg fixed interest rates, like fixed-rate mortgages, to bond rates. Mortgage bonds, also called mortgage-backed securities, are bundles of mortgages sold to investors and are closely tied to the 10-year Treasury. When bond interest rates are high, the bond has less value on the market where investors buy and sell securities, causing mortgage interest rates to go up.

Other key indicators: Employment patterns and other aspects of the economy that affect investor confidence and consumer spending and borrowing also influence mortgage rates. For instance, a strong jobs report and a robust economy could indicate greater demand for housing, which can put upward pressure on mortgage rates. When the economy slows and unemployment is high, mortgage rates tend to be lower.

Read more: Fact Check: Trump Doesn’t Have the Power to Force Lower Interest Rates

Is now a good time to get a mortgage?

Even though timing is everything in the mortgage market, you can’t control what the Fed does. «Forecasting interest rates is nearly impossible in today’s market,» said Wolf.

Regardless of the economy, the most important thing when shopping for a mortgage is to make sure you can comfortably afford your monthly payments.

More homebuying advice

Technologies

The Witcher 3, Kingdom Come Deliverance 2 Bring the Heat to Xbox Game Pass

Two amazing games will be available soon for Xbox Game Pass subscribers.

The second half of February and early March could be considered one of the best stretches in recent memory for Xbox Game Pass subscribers. The Witcher 3: Wild Hunt, widely regarded as one of the best games of the past decade, and Kingdom Come: Deliverance 2 headline a lineup that leans heavily into sprawling, choice-driven adventures but does throw in some football to mix things up a bit.

Xbox Game Pass offers hundreds of games you can play on your Xbox Series X, Xbox Series S, Xbox One, Amazon Fire TV, smart TV, PC or mobile device, with prices starting at $10 a month. While all Game Pass tiers offer you a library of games, Game Pass Ultimate ($30 a month) gives you access to the most games, as well as Day 1 games, meaning they hit Game Pass the day they go on sale.

Here are all the latest games subscribers can play on Game Pass. You can also check out other games the company added to the service in early February, including Madden NFL 26.

The Witcher 3: Wild Hunt – Complete Edition

Available on Feb. 19 for Game Pass Ultimate and Premium Game Pass subscribers.

The Witcher 3 came out 10 years ago, and it’s still being praised as one of the best games ever made. To celebrate, developer CD Projekt Red is bringing over The Witcher 3: Wild Hunt Complete Edition to Xbox Game Pass. Subscribers will be able to play The Witcher 3 and its expansions, Hearts of Stone and Blood and Wine. Players once more take on the role of monster-slayer Geralt, who goes on an epic search for his daughter, Ciri. As he pieces together what happened to her, he comes across vicious monsters, devious spirits, and the most evil of humans who seek to end his quest.

Death Howl

Available on Feb. 19 for Game Pass Ultimate, Game Pass Premium and PC Game Pass subscribers.

Death Howl is a dark fantasy tactical roguelike that blends turn-based grid combat with deck-building mechanics. Players move across compact battlefield maps, weighing positioning and card synergies to survive increasingly difficult encounters. Progression comes through incremental upgrades that reshape each run. Battles reward careful planning, as overextending or mismanaging your hand can quickly end a run.

EA Sports College Football 26

Available on Feb. 19 for Game Pass Ultimate subscribers.

EA Sports College Football 26 delivers a new take on college football gameplay with enhanced offensive and defensive mechanics, smarter AI and dynamic play-calling that reflects real strategic football systems. Featuring over 2,800 plays and more than 300 real-world coaches with distinct schemes, it offers expanded Dynasty and Road to Glory modes where team building and personnel decisions matter. On the field, dynamic substitutions, improved blocking and coverage logic make matches feel more fluid and tactical.

Dice A Million

Available on Feb. 25 for Game Pass Ultimate and PC Game Pass subscribers.

Dice A Million centers on rolling and managing dice to build toward increasingly higher scores. Each round asks players to weigh risk against reward, deciding when to bank points and when to push for bigger combinations. Progression introduces modifiers and new rules that subtly shift probabilities, making runs feel distinct while keeping the core loop focused on calculated gambling.

Towerborne

Available on Feb. 26 for Game Pass Ultimate, PC, and Premium Game Pass subscribers.

After months in preview, Towerborne will get its full release on Xbox Game Pass. The fast-paced action game blends procedural dungeons and light RPG progression, with players fighting through waves of enemies. You’ll unlock permanent upgrades between runs and equip weapons, spells and talents that change how combat feels each time. The core loop pushes risk versus reward as you dive deeper into tougher floors, adapting builds on the fly, and mastering movement and timing to survive increasingly chaotic battles.

Final Fantasy 3

Available on March 3 for Game Pass Ultimate, Premium and PC Game Pass subscribers.

Another Final Fantasy game is coming to Xbox Game Pass. This time, it’s Final Fantasy 3, originally released on the Famicom (the Japanese version of the NES) back in 1990. Since then, Final Fantasy 3 has been ported to a slew of devices and operating systems, including the Nintendo Wii, iOS and Android. Now, you’ll be able to play on your Xbox or PC with a Game Pass subscription. A new group of heroes is once again tasked with saving the world before it’s covered in darkness. Four orphans from the village of Ur find a Crystal of Light in a secret cave, which tasks them as the new Warriors of Light. They’ll have to stop Xande, an evil wizard looking to use the power of darkness to become immortal.

Kingdom Come: Deliverance 2

Available on March 3 for Game Pass Ultimate, Premium and PC Game Pass subscribers.

Last year was stacked with amazing games, and Kingdom Come: Deliverance 2 was one of the best. Developer Warhorse Studios’ RPG series takes place in the real medieval kingdom of Bohemia, which is now the Czech Republic, and tasks players with a somewhat realistic gaming experience where you have to use the weapons, armor and items from those times. The sequel picks up right after the first game (also on Xbox Game Pass) as Henry of Skalitz is attacked by bandits, which starts a series of events that disrupts the entire country.

Games leaving Game Pass in February

For February, Microsoft is removing four games. If you’re still playing them, now’s a good time to finish up what you can before they’re gone for good on Feb. 28.

For more on Xbox, discover other games available on Game Pass now, and check out our hands-on review of the gaming service. You can also learn about recent changes to Game Pass.

Technologies

Tom Cruise and Brad Pitt Trade Blows in Latest AI Slop Video, and Hollywood Won’t Stand for It

While some Hollywood icons are feeling doom and gloom over the AI-generated clip, labor unions are fighting back with legal threats.

Brad Pitt and Tom Cruise are trading blows in a viral AI-generated clip on social media, sparking backlash from the film industry. Chinese company ByteDance’s new video generation model, Seedance 2.0, allowed people to create fictional videos of real likenesses with short prompts. Irish filmmaker Ruairi Robinson used two lines to generate the clip of Pitt and Cruise fighting.

If ByteDance sounds familiar to you, it’s because the company also owns TikTok internationally, though it recently sold its US ownership of the social media and video-sharing platform to US companies. Oracle, MGX and Silver Lake each hold a 15% stake.

The actors in this latest viral AI slop video still don’t look like perfect re-creations — close-up shots of the fake Brad Pitt’s face, especially, have an «uncanny valley,» dreamlike AI look where the cuts blend into his flesh a little too smoothly. However, a CNET survey from earlier Tuesday showed that while 94% of US adults believe they encounter AI slop on social media, just 44% say they’re confident they can tell real videos from AI-generated ones.

One of the most inflammatory parts of the Pitt-Cruise video is the dialogue, as the computerized facsimiles of the actors fight over a supposed assassination plot regarding Jeffrey Epstein, the convicted sex offender who maintained ties to rich and powerful people worldwide. The two actors’ likenesses became a vehicle to push conspiracy theories that have been picking up steam as the millions of pages of redacted emails, receipts and other documents that make up the Epstein files continue to trickle out of the US Department of Justice.

Hollywood is fighting back as AI-generated content consumes and spits out actor likenesses and copyrighted content alike. Major studios and their labor forces alike have united to push back against the precedent set by the viral AI video.

According to The Hollywood Reporter, the Motion Picture Association demanded that ByteDance «immediately cease its infringing activity» through Seedance. SAG-AFTRA, the labor union that represents Hollywood performers, released a statement on Friday saying it «stands with the studios» in condemning the Seedance video generation model.

The Screen Actors Guild specifically pointed to Seedance’s unauthorized use of members’ faces, likenesses and voices as a threat that could put actors out of work.

«Seedance 2.0 disregards law, ethics, industry standards and basic principles of consent,» the actors’ guild said in its statement.

Representatives for the MPA and SAG-AFTRA didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment.

Similar videos generated by Seedance have depicted Star Wars characters dueling with lightsabers as well as Marvel superheroes Spider-Man and Captain America brawling. Disney issued a cease-and-desist order to ByteDance on Friday in response to these videos, which it alleges constitute copyright infringement, according to the BBC.

A representative for ByteDance didn’t immediately respond to CNET’s request for comment, but issued a statement to the BBC saying it is «taking steps to strengthen current safeguards as we work to prevent the unauthorized use of intellectual property and likeness by users.»

Following the viral incident, ByteDance updated its tool to prevent people from uploading images of real people for AI-generated content, but it remains to be seen how effective that policy will be. Certainly, it won’t curb the output of videos depicting fictional masked or anthropomorphic characters like Spider-Man or Mickey Mouse.

As AI models continue to create mediocre copies of cultural icons, this won’t be the first — or last — legal battleground for AI video generation.

Technologies

Today’s NYT Connections Hints, Answers and Help for Feb. 18, #983

Here are some hints and the answers for the NYT Connections puzzle for Feb. 18 #983.

Looking for the most recent Connections answers? Click here for today’s Connections hints, as well as our daily answers and hints for The New York Times Mini Crossword, Wordle, Connections: Sports Edition and Strands puzzles.

Today’s NYT Connections puzzle was great fun for me, as I’m the co-author of two pop-culture encyclopedias, one about the 1970s, and 1980s and the other about the 1990s. Two of the categories are retro-themed! Read on for clues and today’s Connections answers.

The Times has a Connections Bot, like the one for Wordle. Go there after you play to receive a numeric score and to have the program analyze your answers. Players who are registered with the Times Games section can now nerd out by following their progress, including the number of puzzles completed, win rate, number of times they nabbed a perfect score and their win streak.

Read more: Hints, Tips and Strategies to Help You Win at NYT Connections Every Time

Hints for today’s Connections groups

Here are four hints for the groupings in today’s Connections puzzle, ranked from the easiest yellow group to the tough (and sometimes bizarre) purple group.

Yellow group hint: Farrah hair.

Green group hint: Totally tubular!

Blue group hint: Bock-bock!

Purple group hint: Can refer to a dairy product or a cosmetic.