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Waiting for a Recession to Buy a Home? This Realtor Weighs In

Here are the most important things to know about mortgage rates during an economic downturn.

The economy’s been all over the place lately. Inflation might be coming down, but rising tariffs, stock market dips and global uncertainty are keeping everyone on edge. With mortgage rates bouncing around, homebuyers are asking me, Will housing become more affordable in a recession?

After more than 20 years in real estate, I’ve seen my share of ups and downs, from boom times to full-blown crashes, like 2008. The truth? There’s always opportunity, even in a downturn. The market doesn’t stop during a recession. It just shifts. And if you’re ready, that shift can actually work in your favor.

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Let’s break down what a recession really means for mortgage rates, home prices and your opportunity to buy a home. 

Is a recession on its way?

There are plenty of recession warning signs right now. Layoffs are picking up, GDP is slowing and consumer confidence has dipped. Paychecks aren’t going as far, and retirement accounts are taking hits. 

While less disposable income and tighter budgets point to a general slowdown in the economy, technically, we’re not in a recession. Not yet. It would take two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth to hit that definition. But for a lot of folks, it already feels like one. 

High prices and inflation aren’t the same thing. Even if the inflation rate isn’t going up, the cost of everyday goods and services is still high, and budgets are getting hammered. When folks feel the squeeze every time they swipe a card at the grocery store, it shapes how they think about making huge purchases like a home.

Will the Fed cut interest rates?

Borrowing costs have been expensive for the last several years, making households and businesses wary about taking out loans. The Federal Reserve will probably cut interest rates again later this year, eventually making financing cheaper. 

But those cuts won’t come for a while. The Fed’s a bit stuck right now. The economy’s losing steam and inflation is cooling, but not fast enough. The central bank is being cautious about shifting policy, especially with tariffs driving prices back up.

Though lower interest rates will eventually impact the housing market, the Fed doesn’t directly control mortgage rates. Mortgage rates move based on many factors, such as the bond market and investor expectations. Even when the Fed starts cutting rates again, don’t expect mortgage rates to drop like crazy. Many of those expected cuts are already priced into the market. 

Will mortgage rates drop in a recession?

Mortgage rates often fall during an economic depression, as we saw recently in 2020 and earlier in 2008. Lower rates help boost the economy, and the Fed knows that.

But this time around, things are messier. There’s volatility everywhere. Even though rates could drop, they might also shoot back up with any good economic news. Like many experts in the real estate industry, I think average rates for a 30-year fixed mortgage will hover between 6.5% to 7.25% for most of 2025, with weekly jumps and dips in that range. 

If you’re holding out for 4% or 5% mortgage rates, you may be waiting longer than you’d like. It’s going to take far more negative economic news to see rates fall in a big way.

It’s also worth pointing out that your personal financial situation matters more than your interest rate. If you’ve got a solid stream of income and a long-term plan for paying off a home loan, waiting for a perfect rate might not be worth it.

Will home prices go down in a recession?

Home prices are the big question. And the answer is… they won’t likely go down in a big way.

Historically, home prices don’t fall much during recessions. The 2008 housing crash was the exception, not the rule. What we’ll probably see is slower appreciation or small dips in certain markets, especially in areas hit by higher insurance costs, taxes or natural disasters (Florida, Texas and Louisiana come to mind).

But nationwide, we’re still dealing with low inventory. Until that changes, it’s hard to see prices dropping dramatically. Plus, given high construction and labor costs, it’s clear home prices aren’t falling off a cliff anytime soon.

Is it cheaper to buy a home during a recession?

If you’re financially stable, it could be cheaper to buy a home in a recession. You might find better deals, less competition and more negotiating power. But if lending tightens, getting a loan could get tougher. That’s something we’re already starting to see with condos and certain types of properties.

And don’t overlook the «wealth effect.» When people feel wealthier, like when their stock portfolio or home value is up, they’re more confident making big purchases. 

But when those numbers start to slide, or there’s even a threat of job insecurity, even if nothing’s really changed day to day, people pull back. That affects buyer activity in a big way. If someone just lost $20,000 in their 401(k), they’re not rushing to get a new mortgage.

What’s the best time to buy a home? 

The best time to buy a home is when it makes sense for you. If you’ve got a steady income and strong credit, and you’re ready to settle down, a recession could actually work in your favor. 

Just don’t wait around for some magical «perfect time» to take out a mortgage. The green light most people are waiting for doesn’t exist. But if you prepare, stay informed and work with the right team, you can make a smart move no matter what the economy’s doing.

Technologies

Today’s NYT Mini Crossword Answers for Sunday, Aug. 24

Here are the answers for The New York Times Mini Crossword for Aug. 24.

Looking for the most recent Mini Crossword answer? Click here for today’s Mini Crossword hints, as well as our daily answers and hints for The New York Times Wordle, Strands, Connections and Connections: Sports Edition puzzles.


Today’s Mini Crossword cites one of my favorite childhood shows in 6-Across. Hint: Think of a red-headed comedian who was famous for tugging her ear and for some classic commercial parodies — and who is still with us at age 92. Need answers for today’s NYT Mini Crossword? Read on. And if you could use some hints and guidance for daily solving, check out our Mini Crossword tips.

If you’re looking for today’s Wordle, Connections, Connections: Sports Edition and Strands answers, you can visit CNET’s NYT puzzle hints page.

Read more: Tips and Tricks for Solving The New York Times Mini Crossword

Let’s get to those Mini Crossword clues and answers.

Mini across clues and answers

1A clue: Perch for a family photo
Answer: SHELF

6A clue: Burnett with a variety show from 1967 to 1978
Answer: CAROL

7A clue: Plant that yields mezcal
Answer: AGAVE

8A clue: Deceptive ploys
Answer: RUSES

9A clue: «You’ve gotta be kidding me!»
Answer: YEESH

Mini down clues and answers

1D clue: How a leap of faith might feel
Answer: SCARY

2D clue: Dutch seat of government, with «The»
Answer: HAGUE

3D clue: What many pencils can do that magic markers can’t
Answer: ERASE

4D clue: Holds dear
Answer: LOVES

5D clue: _ and blood (kin)
Answer: FLESH

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Technologies

Today’s NYT Connections Hints, Answers and Help for Aug. 24, #805

Here are some hints and the answers for the NYT Connections puzzle for Aug. 24, #805.

Looking for the most recent Connections answers? Click here for today’s Connections hints, as well as our daily answers and hints for The New York Times Mini Crossword, Wordle, Connections: Sports Edition and Strands puzzles.


Today’s NYT Connections puzzle is a real mix. The green category reminds me that the puzzle editors love to find common words that have second meanings that are somewhat rare. Hint: «Rent» doesn’t only mean money you pay to a landlord. Read on for clues and today’s Connections answers.

The Times now has a Connections Bot, like the one for Wordle. Go there after you play to receive a numeric score and to have the program analyze your answers. Players who are registered with the Times Games section can now nerd out by following their progress, including number of puzzles completed, win rate, number of times they nabbed a perfect score and their win streak.

Read more: Hints, Tips and Strategies to Help You Win at NYT Connections Every Time

Hints for today’s Connections groups

Here are four hints for the groupings in today’s Connections puzzle, ranked from the easiest yellow group to the tough (and sometimes bizarre) purple group.

Yellow group hint: Cheers!

Green group hint: You don’t want this to happen to your pants.

Blue group hint: Sssss…

Purple group hint: Do this with a phone.

Answers for today’s Connections groups

Yellow group: Wine vessels.

Green group: Ripped.

Blue group: Kinds of snakes.

Purple group: ____ call.

Read more: Wordle Cheat Sheet: Here Are the Most Popular Letters Used in English Words

What are today’s Connections answers?

The yellow words in today’s Connections

The theme is wine vessels. The four answers are bottle, carafe, decanter and glass.

The green words in today’s Connections

The theme is ripped. The four answers are cleft, rent, split and torn.

The blue words in today’s Connections

The theme is kinds of snakes. The four answers are coral, garter, king and rattle.

The purple words in today’s Connections

The theme is ____ call. The four answers are booty, close, cold and curtain.

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Technologies

Today’s NYT Connections: Sports Edition Hints and Answers for Aug. 24, #335

Here are hints and the answers for the NYT Connections: Sports Edition puzzle for Aug. 24, No. 335.

Looking for the most recent regular Connections answers? Click here for today’s Connections hints, as well as our daily answers and hints for The New York Times Mini Crossword, Wordle and Strands puzzles.


Today’s Connections: Sports Edition is tough. I played some darts in bars back in the day, but I didn’t know very much about the game, apparently. Read on for hints and the answers.

Connections: Sports Edition is out of beta now, making its debut on Super Bowl Sunday, Feb. 9. That’s a sign that the game has earned enough loyal players that The Athletic, the subscription-based sports journalism site owned by the Times, will continue to publish it. It doesn’t show up in the NYT Games app but now appears in The Athletic’s own app. Or you can continue to play it free online.  

Read more: NYT Connections: Sports Edition Puzzle Comes Out of Beta

Hints for today’s Connections: Sports Edition groups

Here are four hints for the groupings in today’s Connections: Sports Edition puzzle, ranked from the easiest yellow group to the tough (and sometimes bizarre) purple group.

Yellow group hint: Whack!

Green group hint: Sunshine State.

Blue group hint: Popular bar game.

Purple group hint: They have halos.

Answers for today’s Connections: Sports Edition groups

Yellow group: Used to hit a ball.

Green group: A South Florida athlete.

Blue group: Darts terms.

Purple group: Angels to win MVP.

Read more: Wordle Cheat Sheet: Here Are the Most Popular Letters Used in English Words

What are today’s Connections: Sports Edition answers?

The yellow words in today’s Connections

The theme is used to hit a ball. The four answers are bat, club, paddle and racket.

The green words in today’s Connections

The theme is a South Florida athlete. The four answers are Buccaneer, Dolphin, Marlin and Panther.

The blue words in today’s Connections

The theme is darts terms. The four answers are Big Fish, Bull’s-Eye, Nine-Darter and Oche.

The purple words in today’s Connections

The theme is Angels to win MVP. The four answers are Baylor, Guerrero, Ohtani and Trout.

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