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Waiting for a Recession to Buy a Home? This Realtor Weighs In

Here are the most important things to know about mortgage rates during an economic downturn.

The economy’s been all over the place lately. Inflation might be coming down, but rising tariffs, stock market dips and global uncertainty are keeping everyone on edge. With mortgage rates bouncing around, homebuyers are asking me, Will housing become more affordable in a recession?

After more than 20 years in real estate, I’ve seen my share of ups and downs, from boom times to full-blown crashes, like 2008. The truth? There’s always opportunity, even in a downturn. The market doesn’t stop during a recession. It just shifts. And if you’re ready, that shift can actually work in your favor.

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Let’s break down what a recession really means for mortgage rates, home prices and your opportunity to buy a home. 

Is a recession on its way?

There are plenty of recession warning signs right now. Layoffs are picking up, GDP is slowing and consumer confidence has dipped. Paychecks aren’t going as far, and retirement accounts are taking hits. 

While less disposable income and tighter budgets point to a general slowdown in the economy, technically, we’re not in a recession. Not yet. It would take two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth to hit that definition. But for a lot of folks, it already feels like one. 

High prices and inflation aren’t the same thing. Even if the inflation rate isn’t going up, the cost of everyday goods and services is still high, and budgets are getting hammered. When folks feel the squeeze every time they swipe a card at the grocery store, it shapes how they think about making huge purchases like a home.

Will the Fed cut interest rates?

Borrowing costs have been expensive for the last several years, making households and businesses wary about taking out loans. The Federal Reserve will probably cut interest rates again later this year, eventually making financing cheaper. 

But those cuts won’t come for a while. The Fed’s a bit stuck right now. The economy’s losing steam and inflation is cooling, but not fast enough. The central bank is being cautious about shifting policy, especially with tariffs driving prices back up.

Though lower interest rates will eventually impact the housing market, the Fed doesn’t directly control mortgage rates. Mortgage rates move based on many factors, such as the bond market and investor expectations. Even when the Fed starts cutting rates again, don’t expect mortgage rates to drop like crazy. Many of those expected cuts are already priced into the market. 

Will mortgage rates drop in a recession?

Mortgage rates often fall during an economic depression, as we saw recently in 2020 and earlier in 2008. Lower rates help boost the economy, and the Fed knows that.

But this time around, things are messier. There’s volatility everywhere. Even though rates could drop, they might also shoot back up with any good economic news. Like many experts in the real estate industry, I think average rates for a 30-year fixed mortgage will hover between 6.5% to 7.25% for most of 2025, with weekly jumps and dips in that range. 

If you’re holding out for 4% or 5% mortgage rates, you may be waiting longer than you’d like. It’s going to take far more negative economic news to see rates fall in a big way.

It’s also worth pointing out that your personal financial situation matters more than your interest rate. If you’ve got a solid stream of income and a long-term plan for paying off a home loan, waiting for a perfect rate might not be worth it.

Will home prices go down in a recession?

Home prices are the big question. And the answer is… they won’t likely go down in a big way.

Historically, home prices don’t fall much during recessions. The 2008 housing crash was the exception, not the rule. What we’ll probably see is slower appreciation or small dips in certain markets, especially in areas hit by higher insurance costs, taxes or natural disasters (Florida, Texas and Louisiana come to mind).

But nationwide, we’re still dealing with low inventory. Until that changes, it’s hard to see prices dropping dramatically. Plus, given high construction and labor costs, it’s clear home prices aren’t falling off a cliff anytime soon.

Is it cheaper to buy a home during a recession?

If you’re financially stable, it could be cheaper to buy a home in a recession. You might find better deals, less competition and more negotiating power. But if lending tightens, getting a loan could get tougher. That’s something we’re already starting to see with condos and certain types of properties.

And don’t overlook the «wealth effect.» When people feel wealthier, like when their stock portfolio or home value is up, they’re more confident making big purchases. 

But when those numbers start to slide, or there’s even a threat of job insecurity, even if nothing’s really changed day to day, people pull back. That affects buyer activity in a big way. If someone just lost $20,000 in their 401(k), they’re not rushing to get a new mortgage.

What’s the best time to buy a home? 

The best time to buy a home is when it makes sense for you. If you’ve got a steady income and strong credit, and you’re ready to settle down, a recession could actually work in your favor. 

Just don’t wait around for some magical «perfect time» to take out a mortgage. The green light most people are waiting for doesn’t exist. But if you prepare, stay informed and work with the right team, you can make a smart move no matter what the economy’s doing.

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Under Pressure From Roblox, Fortnite Allowing Creators to Sell In-Game Items

For one year, at least, creators will also get a larger cut of the revenue.

Creators who make content for Fortnite can start monetizing their virtual goods in December.

The free-to-play online game’s publisher, Epic Games, announced that those in its Creator program will earn revenue from the sale of in-game items they’ve made and money they already earn from engagement payouts for Epic-created items.

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Before platform and store fees, those creators ordinarily will earn 50% of the value of V-Bucks earned (V-Bucks are the platform’s virtual currency). But from December until the end of 2026, Epic is boosting that revenue cut to 100 percent — again, before fees. Fees vary from 12% to 30%, depending on whether players buy items directly from the Epic Games Store or from platforms such as the PlayStation Store or the Xbox Store.

Epic has been involved in ongoing legal battles with Apple and Google over app store fees. This year, Fortnite returned to the iOS platform in Europe and to Android devices after being pulled over the disputes.

One reason that Fortnite is sharing the wealth with community developers is that its biggest competitor, Roblox, has been growing with multiple hit games on its platforms. This month, Roblox boasted that its creators earned more than $1 billion in revenue for 2024. 

Roblox has been dealing with other problems, however, including complaints from parents and child-advocacy groups about safety on the platform. These issues have prompted Roblox to introduce more monitoring and filtering features.

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Technologies

Celebrate Google’s Birthday With $200 Off the Google Pixel 9

Looking to upgrade your phone? This offer treats you to a $200 discount on this excellent last-gen model.

In honor of Google’s birthday, the company is offering up a number of deals, and Amazon has decided to match an excellent one for those looking to upgrade to a new phone. Normally $899, you can grab a Pixel 9 phone at Amazon for $699. That’s a nice $200 savings. The Pixel 9 isn’t the latest Pixel phone but it’s still a fantastic option. So much so that we even consider it one of the best Android phones out there. Act fast, this birthday deal isn’t going to last long.

The Google Pixel 9 is the sweet spot if you are looking for a compact phone that doesn’t compromise on camera, performance or display specs. It has a 6.3-inch display, a long-lasting battery and is, of course, 5G-ready. And this previous-gen flagship has a camera system without any differentiation from the bigger model of that series. It also comes equipped with 12GB of RAM and 256GB of storage.

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The phone is available in multiple colors but the special price isn’t offered across all of them. For that reason, we suggest making sure to check the price of your preferred color before placing your order. Don’t worry if the Pixel 9 isn’t for you, though. We’re rounding up all the best phone deals so you don’t wind up paying more than you need to.

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Why this deal matters

This Pixel 9 isn’t the latest that Google has to offer, but it’s still a great option. The Pixel 9 will continue to receive Android feature and security updates for a long time to come. That means you won’t need to replace your Pixel for years, making this deal an even better value. If you’re an Android fan who likes their phones to be as straightforward as possible, Google’s Pixel phones are a great place to start your search.

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New iPhone 17 or Air on Your Radar? Get Ready for These Prices Today

The newest iPhone lineup drops today, but tariffs aren’t to blame for the premium price; that’s just Apple’s MO.

As the newest iPhones hit the shelves today, the Apple faithful can count their blessings that they aren’t paying more for the new phones. iPhones have never been cheap, but it was pretty clear when the prices for the new iPhone 17 lineup were revealed at Apple’s fall iPhone event earlier this month that they could have gotten worse, considering the year of tariffs and other economic turmoil.

CNET senior editor James Bricknell wasn’t surprised by the iPhone prices.

«Given the tariffs and all the other stuff that’s happened in the past year, the prices are good,» he said. «They match what you would expect in terms of inflation rather than the leap I was expecting.»

Apple unveiled three models during the event: the iPhone 17, the iPhone Air and the iPhone 17 Pro. That’s right — the skinny new iPhone Air doesn’t have «17» in its name. The full lineup also includes the low-end iPhone 16E, released earlier this year.

iPhone 16E, from $599

CNET Managing Editor Patrick Holland reviewed the iPhone 16E, which is Apple’s most affordable iPhone, and noted that some compromises had to be made to get the price down. There’s no Dynamic Island cutout for one thing, and it only comes in black and white.

iPhone 17, from $799

The standard iPhone 17 has some small upgrades over past models, namely a new chip, a brighter and sharper screen, better cameras and an improved selfie camera. With the introduction of the super-thin iPhone Air, this phone is now Apple’s entry-level flagship.

iPhone Air, from $999

The new iPhone Air made headlines for its slim shape, weighing in at just 165 grams. Apple called the Air the «most power-efficient iPhone we have ever made» and says it has all-day battery life. It clocks in at just under $1,000 as its starting price.

iPhone 17 Pro, from $1,099

The priciest iPhones are the iPhone 17 Pro and Pro Max, which pack a range of camera upgrades plus a new orange color. While the iPhone 16 Pro was slightly cheaper at a $999 starting price last year, CNET Editor-at-Large Andrew Lanxon notes, «It’s now got double the storage and actually costs the same as the equivalent 256GB iPhone 16 Pro.»

If you’re rolling in cash, the iPhone 17 Pro Max with 2TB of storage will happily take more of your money. It’s priced at $1,999. 

How to order the new iPhone

Sold on the new iPhone lineup? Preorders begin on Friday, and launch day is Sept. 19.

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