Technologies

It’s Time to Stop Waiting for Apple’s Next iPhone Moment

Commentary: The iPhone took off because it came at the right time — a moment that may be impossible to re-create.

When the original iPhone arrived in 2007, few people knew it would lay the foundation for the devices we now carry in our pockets each day. As the June 5 date of Apple’s Worldwide Developers Conference approaches, all eyes will be focused on whether the tech giant can re-create that impact with its first entirely new product in almost a decade: a head-mounted computer.

The iPhone wasn’t the first smartphone, nor was it the first mobile device to achieve cultural relevance as a status symbol. But it came at just the right moment, and there arguably hasn’t been such a perfectly timed tech product launch since. Re-creating that moment will be challenging, even for Apple.

The tech industry has evolved a lot since 2007, and so has our relationship with technology. Devices like the iPhone and the BlackBerry revolutionized the way we access information and communicate, at a time when the idea of constant internet connectivity was relatively new.

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But the biggest new gadgets since then (think smartwatches, wireless earbuds) were initially useful because they untethered us from those phones, helping us better navigate the influx of alerts flowing from them. It took years for the Apple Watch to establish its direction as a health and wellness device, and I suspect it’ll similarly take time for the headset to find its niche.

The arrival of a completely new product — whether it be a smartwatch or a headset — doesn’t feel the same as it did 16 years ago. Nor should it.

For the iPhone, timing was everything

The iPhone debuted at a formative time for personal technology. As the internet became a more integral part of our lives, so did the need to take it with us.

The iPod, BlackBerry phones and other personal digital assistants (better known as PDAs) provided a way to keep us connected on the go as people recognized the need to listen to music, send emails, and manage calendars away from home. Shipments of handheld computers from brands like BlackBerry and Palm rose 18.4% in 2006, according to Gartner data reported by the Associated Press in early 2007, underscoring the demand for mobile access to email and other communications.

Research in Motion’s BlackBerry Curve 8350i, from 2008. The BlackBerry first appeared in 2002.

Corinne Schulze/CNET Networks

Then the iPhone came in 2007 and changed everything. Steve Jobs famously introduced the first iPhone as a phone, an iPod and an Internet communicator in one device. What made the iPhone so impactful was that those three things were already necessities in people’s lives, as the success of cell phones, the iPod and home computers showed.

In 2000, 51% of US households had one or more computers, and more than 40% of households were connected to the Internet, according to a 2001 New York Times report covering Census Bureau data. The US added a record-breaking 25.7 million new mobile phone users in 2005, reported InfoWorld in 2006, citing data from the Cellular Telecommunications & Internet Association. And sales of MP3 players were booming in the early 2000s, as market researcher IDC reported back in 2002.

Clearly the internet, MP3 players and cell phones were permeating everyday life long before the iPhone made its debut at the Macworld conference in 2007. The iPhone was the culmination of these trends, showing how hardware was catching up to the way people were already using tech products in their daily lives. Though PDAs and early “smart” phones like the IBM Simon were a promising start, they were largely designed to be handheld computers with cell phone functionality.

The iPhone and other modern smartphones took that idea a step further. When Apple’s App Store arrived later in 2008, apps turned the iPhone and other handheld devices into Swiss Army Knives, expanding their functionality beyond the business-focused PDAs of years past. Today, mobile devices can serve as phones, internet and email portals, music players, mini-TVs, flashlights, wallets, keys and so much more, largely thanks to the proliferation of apps.

apple-store-iphone11-app-9823 — The App Store turned the iPhone into much more than a phone, iPod and internet communicator.

Angela Lang/CNET

But it’s important to remember that even the iPhone wasn’t an overnight success. The original model’s price and initial exclusivity to AT&T, combined with the notion that Apple was a newcomer to the mobile phone business, certainly resulted in some skepticism about the iPhone’s future. Let’s not forget that the first model also had many shortcomings, as former CNET Senior Managing Editor Kent German pointed out in his review.

Still, the iPhone had a long-term impact because it filled a need at the right time — even if it wasn’t immediately accessible to everyone right away. Consider technologies that came before their time. Microsoft’s SPOT platform sought to turn everyday objects like watches and household appliances into smart gadgets — preceding today’s smartwatches and the so-called internet of things boom. The SPOT watches never caught on, thanks in part to their bulky design and the subscription fee required to access Microsoft’s MSN Direct service, as my colleague David Carnoy wrote in 2008, marking the end of Microsoft’s efforts in that area at the time.

An Apple headset has a lot more competition for our attention

Fast-forward to today, and the tech world is buzzing about what’s expected to be a similar moment in Apple’s history. The company will reportedly introduce its first mixed reality headset on June 5, which Bloomberg says will have apps and software features that span gaming, communication, fitness and more. Apple has a reputation for popularizing devices like the smartphone, tablet and smartwatch, so the expectation is that it will do so again for headsets.

That may very well be true. But making head-mounted computers as ubiquitous as the iPhone is a tough task, even for Apple. Once again, it will all come down to timing. From smartwatches to earbuds, tablets to smart speakers, there are plenty of gadgets in our lives designed to fulfill different needs — many more than when the first iPhone launched.

Apple Watch Ultra vs Series 8 — Devices like the Apple Watch can help us manage the influx of notifications coming from our phones.

Lexy Savvides/CNET

American households owned an average of 16 connected devices as of 2022, according to research firm Parks Associates. A Pew Research survey from 2021 found that 31% of US adults said they’re constantly online. A Reviews.org survey, the results of which were published this month, found that 56.9% of Americans said they’re addicted to their smartphone.

A gadget like Apple’s virtual reality headset, which will cost around $3,000 according to Bloomberg, will have to be very compelling to demand attention in a world already oversaturated with screens and sensors.

The iPhone may have revolutionized the way we communicate and use the internet. But we’re now in an era in which people are looking to disconnect from their phones more easily, and that shows in the new tech products from the last decade.

What do smartwatches, wireless earbuds and smart speakers have in common? They all allow us to access the internet without reaching for our phones, whether it’s skipping to the next track on your Spotify playlist, asking a virtual assistant for today’s weather forecast or getting a text message on your wrist. A mixed reality headset would seemingly do the opposite by further plunging you into whatever content you’re experiencing at the moment.

Even the developments in generative artificial intelligence, or AI, that can create content based on prompts, are designed to help us spend less time buried in screens. Google, for example, recently showed off a new Gmail feature called Help Me Write that can draft messages for you based on a quick prompt. Tools like these could shorten the amount of time we spend replying to emails and other communications, and could arguably be more impactful than new hardware. (In fact, if you’ve been following tech headlines in 2023, AI is apparently in the midst of its own “iPhone moment.”)

The slow-burn effect

In recent years, it’s taken longer for new Apple gadgets to establish a role in our lives, and the Apple Watch is the strongest example of this. When introducing it back in 2014, Apple initially positioned it as a personal timepiece by highlighting its stylish design and time-telling accuracy, before mentioning health and fitness.

But as the gadget matured and became more popular, Apple leaned more fully into health. It added ECG functionality in 2018 with the Series 4 model, enabling the watch to provide more data about cardiac health and signaling a turning point for the device. In 2019, Apple CEO Tim Cook told CNBC that Apple’s “greatest contribution to mankind” will be about health. Roughly three years after the first Apple Watch arrived, it became clear that health, fitness and wellness tracking would be the its most important purpose. The iPhone may not have been in everyone’s pockets right away, but its role as a handheld computer, MP3 player and phone was apparent from the start.

A wrist wearing the Apple Watch Series 4 44mm smartwatch against a yellow background. — The Apple Watch Series 4 was the first with ECG support.

Sarah Tew/CNET

Is it the right time for Apple’s rumored headset? I don’t have the answer, and I’m not sure if Apple does either. But one thing is for certain: If the headset is a hit, its success will look a lot different than that of the first iPhone. We might not understand the headset’s role in our lives until years after its release, if the Apple Watch’s trajectory is any indication. That wouldn’t deem it a failure, it’s just a sign of the times.

The so-called “iPhone moment” may be behind us for good. Or maybe it’s just changed.

Technologies

Trump denies offering Iran sanctions relief; Tehran receives U.S. proposal following Qatar talks

U.S. President Donald Trump has denied reports that he had offered sanctions relief to Iran in exchange for concessions from Tehran on its nuclear program.

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Technologies

Fed’s preferred gauge showed core inflation at 3.0% in August, much lighter than expected

The personal consumption expenditures price index was projected to show an annual gain of 3.7% on headline and 3.3% for core, according to the Dow Jones consensus.

Consumer prices posted a smaller-than-expected increase in August from a year ago, according to the Federal Reserve’s primary inflation gauge, the Commerce Department reported Wednesday.

The personal consumption expenditures price index rose a seasonally adjusted 0.3% for the month, putting the 12-month gain at 3.4%. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been looking for increases of 0.3% and 3.7%, respectively.

Excluding food and energy, PCE posted a 0.2% climb that put the annual core level at 3%. The respective forecasts were for 0.3% and 3.3%.

Though the Fed officially follows the headline PCE number, officials generally consider core a better gauge of longer-term trends.

While the annual increases were less than expected, they came as the Bureau of Economic Analysis changed the way it computes several components of the index. The BEA adjusted methodology for how it measures prices for legal services, software and computer accessories and portfolio management.

The revisions lowered the core July PCE level by 0.36 percentage point.

Stock market futures gained ground following the report while Treasury yields were negative. Traders priced in less of a chance of a Fed rate hike in October, pushing the next expected increase to December.

“This is good news for investors worried about the recent surge in bond yields, and it bolsters the case for not hiking in October,” said David Russell, global head of market strategy at TradeStation. “However, it’s also relatively old data at this point that doesn’t reflect this month’s surge in diesel prices.”

The report also showed that personal income rose 0.2% while spending increased 0.9%, against the respective consensus for 0.4% and 0.8%.

Inflation still high, GDP revised up

Both PCE levels are still considerably higher than the central bank’s 2% target, raising the possibility that the Fed will follow up its September interest rate hike with another increase at either of its remaining meetings this year — in October or, more likely, December.

“Even after major methodological revisions, PCE inflation is still running hot however you cut it,” said Sonu Varghese, global macro strategist at Carson Group. “The economy is running hot, policy remains easy, and the Fed’s challenge is figuring out how much restraint is needed. That’s a tailwind for stocks as we move into Q4.”

Energy costs were the primary culprit for the price rise in August, though multiple other sectors also showed gains. Gasoline jumped 4.4% and transportation services accelerated by 1.4%. Energy goods and services climbed 2.3%.

Goods and services prices both posted 0.3% increases.

“The PCE Inflation data – the Federal Reserve’s favorite – show no progress in August on inflation,” said Heather Long, chief economist at Navy Federal Credit Union. “And it’s inevitable that September will be higher. Meanwhile, American consumers are feeling the squeeze.”

In other economic news Wednesday, the Commerce Department reported that gross domestic product increased at a 2.2% annualized rate in the second quarter, according to the final of three estimates. That was up sharply from the prior estimate of 1.5% and reflected greater contributions from consumer and government spending as well as investment.

Real final sales to private domestic purchasers, a metric Fed officials watch closely to gauge underlying demand in the economy, increased 4.6%, an upward revision of 0.4 percentage point.

Inflation measures for the April-through-June period also were slightly lower, with headline PCE prices rising 5% and core at 3.3%, each 0.3 percentage point below the prior estimate.

For the Fed, the various economic signals have posed a quandary.

Policymakers typically can look through price spikes brought on by exogenous factors such as tariffs and the kind of supply shocks driven by the war with Iran. However, the persistence of the price increases, coupled with the unknowns of the artificial intelligence breakout, have posed challenges to traditional modes of thinking.

Markets had been pricing in a strong possibility that the Fed would follow its quarter percentage point September hike with another move in October. However, comments Tuesday from influential New York Fed President John Williams tempered those expectations, and the data Wednesday further dimmed the outlook for an October move.

“With the policy action we took at our September meeting, there is no need for urgency, and we have time to gather more information,” Williams said in a speech, comments that almost immediately triggered an adjustment in expectations.

Williams added that he still thinks another hike “may be appropriate late this year,” leading markets to price out the next increase to December.

Technologies

Gold prices dip but Morgan Stanley strategist identifies 3 compelling reasons to maintain precious metal exposure

Despite gold’s recent 10% decline over six months, Morgan Stanley strategist Amy Gower identifies three key reasons to maintain precious metal exposure: robust physical demand from central banks (particularly China and Poland), potential policy interventions that could favor gold, and oil price de-escalation that could ease inflation pressures, with $4,000 seen as a strong price floor.

Gold’s recent decline appears insufficient to undermine the long-term investment case for the precious metal, according to Morgan Stanley analysis. The firm’s metals and mining strategy head, Amy Gower, highlighted three key factors that could support gold prices in the coming months despite this week’s slide toward a seven-week low. Gold futures edged up 0.77% to $4,212.60 on Wednesday, while spot gold remained flat at $4,180.78. This movement follows Monday’s sharp decline amid concerns that rising bond yields could reduce appetite for non-interest-bearing assets like precious metals. The metal has fallen approximately 10% over the past six months. Physical gold demand remains robust, particularly from central banks, which purchased a net 23 metric tons in July according to World Gold Council data released earlier this month. Gower specifically noted China and Poland’s purchases of 20 and 8 metric tons respectively during July. She told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Europe” that Chinese gold imports are on track to reach their highest level since 2017. “China seems to have this very strong appetite for gold,” she said. China’s total gold imports, which also reflect private and institutional demand, exceeded 1,000 metric tons during the first eight months of the year, the WGC reported. Secondly, while markets remain concerned about long-term public debt and fiscal sustainability globally, and higher bond yields continue to challenge non-yielding assets like gold, Gower noted that traders’ growing expectations of Federal Reserve rate hikes could be offset by further policy intervention or changing inflation expectations that would benefit gold. “What if we get more intervention in that long-dated bond market and then you get yields coming back down?” Gower said. Meanwhile, as U.S. and Iranian officials reportedly hold separate talks with mediators to resolve the seven-month Middle East conflict, rapid de-escalation could help lower oil prices. Kpler data shows Middle Eastern crude exports rebounded this month to their highest level since the war began. Any easing of inflation expectations could help contain upward pressure on interest rates and bond yields, in turn boosting gold prices. “What happens if oil comes down?” Gower asked. Looking ahead to the final quarter of 2026, Gower expressed a favorable outlook for gold over a 12-month horizon, while acknowledging potential volatility given the uncertain economic backdrop of additional Federal Reserve meetings and data releases. “There are still lots of reasons to have gold,” she said. “We see $4,000 as quite a strong floor.”

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