Technologies

It’s Time to Stop Waiting for Apple’s Next iPhone Moment

Commentary: The iPhone took off because it came at the right time — a moment that may be impossible to re-create.

When the original iPhone arrived in 2007, few people knew it would lay the foundation for the devices we now carry in our pockets each day. As the June 5 date of Apple’s Worldwide Developers Conference approaches, all eyes will be focused on whether the tech giant can re-create that impact with its first entirely new product in almost a decade: a head-mounted computer.

The iPhone wasn’t the first smartphone, nor was it the first mobile device to achieve cultural relevance as a status symbol. But it came at just the right moment, and there arguably hasn’t been such a perfectly timed tech product launch since. Re-creating that moment will be challenging, even for Apple.

The tech industry has evolved a lot since 2007, and so has our relationship with technology. Devices like the iPhone and the BlackBerry revolutionized the way we access information and communicate, at a time when the idea of constant internet connectivity was relatively new.

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But the biggest new gadgets since then (think smartwatches, wireless earbuds) were initially useful because they untethered us from those phones, helping us better navigate the influx of alerts flowing from them. It took years for the Apple Watch to establish its direction as a health and wellness device, and I suspect it’ll similarly take time for the headset to find its niche.

The arrival of a completely new product — whether it be a smartwatch or a headset — doesn’t feel the same as it did 16 years ago. Nor should it.

For the iPhone, timing was everything

The iPhone debuted at a formative time for personal technology. As the internet became a more integral part of our lives, so did the need to take it with us.

The iPod, BlackBerry phones and other personal digital assistants (better known as PDAs) provided a way to keep us connected on the go as people recognized the need to listen to music, send emails, and manage calendars away from home. Shipments of handheld computers from brands like BlackBerry and Palm rose 18.4% in 2006, according to Gartner data reported by the Associated Press in early 2007, underscoring the demand for mobile access to email and other communications.

Research in Motion’s BlackBerry Curve 8350i, from 2008. The BlackBerry first appeared in 2002.

Corinne Schulze/CNET Networks

Then the iPhone came in 2007 and changed everything. Steve Jobs famously introduced the first iPhone as a phone, an iPod and an Internet communicator in one device. What made the iPhone so impactful was that those three things were already necessities in people’s lives, as the success of cell phones, the iPod and home computers showed.

In 2000, 51% of US households had one or more computers, and more than 40% of households were connected to the Internet, according to a 2001 New York Times report covering Census Bureau data. The US added a record-breaking 25.7 million new mobile phone users in 2005, reported InfoWorld in 2006, citing data from the Cellular Telecommunications & Internet Association. And sales of MP3 players were booming in the early 2000s, as market researcher IDC reported back in 2002.

Clearly the internet, MP3 players and cell phones were permeating everyday life long before the iPhone made its debut at the Macworld conference in 2007. The iPhone was the culmination of these trends, showing how hardware was catching up to the way people were already using tech products in their daily lives. Though PDAs and early “smart” phones like the IBM Simon were a promising start, they were largely designed to be handheld computers with cell phone functionality.

The iPhone and other modern smartphones took that idea a step further. When Apple’s App Store arrived later in 2008, apps turned the iPhone and other handheld devices into Swiss Army Knives, expanding their functionality beyond the business-focused PDAs of years past. Today, mobile devices can serve as phones, internet and email portals, music players, mini-TVs, flashlights, wallets, keys and so much more, largely thanks to the proliferation of apps.

apple-store-iphone11-app-9823 — The App Store turned the iPhone into much more than a phone, iPod and internet communicator.

Angela Lang/CNET

But it’s important to remember that even the iPhone wasn’t an overnight success. The original model’s price and initial exclusivity to AT&T, combined with the notion that Apple was a newcomer to the mobile phone business, certainly resulted in some skepticism about the iPhone’s future. Let’s not forget that the first model also had many shortcomings, as former CNET Senior Managing Editor Kent German pointed out in his review.

Still, the iPhone had a long-term impact because it filled a need at the right time — even if it wasn’t immediately accessible to everyone right away. Consider technologies that came before their time. Microsoft’s SPOT platform sought to turn everyday objects like watches and household appliances into smart gadgets — preceding today’s smartwatches and the so-called internet of things boom. The SPOT watches never caught on, thanks in part to their bulky design and the subscription fee required to access Microsoft’s MSN Direct service, as my colleague David Carnoy wrote in 2008, marking the end of Microsoft’s efforts in that area at the time.

An Apple headset has a lot more competition for our attention

Fast-forward to today, and the tech world is buzzing about what’s expected to be a similar moment in Apple’s history. The company will reportedly introduce its first mixed reality headset on June 5, which Bloomberg says will have apps and software features that span gaming, communication, fitness and more. Apple has a reputation for popularizing devices like the smartphone, tablet and smartwatch, so the expectation is that it will do so again for headsets.

That may very well be true. But making head-mounted computers as ubiquitous as the iPhone is a tough task, even for Apple. Once again, it will all come down to timing. From smartwatches to earbuds, tablets to smart speakers, there are plenty of gadgets in our lives designed to fulfill different needs — many more than when the first iPhone launched.

Apple Watch Ultra vs Series 8 — Devices like the Apple Watch can help us manage the influx of notifications coming from our phones.

Lexy Savvides/CNET

American households owned an average of 16 connected devices as of 2022, according to research firm Parks Associates. A Pew Research survey from 2021 found that 31% of US adults said they’re constantly online. A Reviews.org survey, the results of which were published this month, found that 56.9% of Americans said they’re addicted to their smartphone.

A gadget like Apple’s virtual reality headset, which will cost around $3,000 according to Bloomberg, will have to be very compelling to demand attention in a world already oversaturated with screens and sensors.

The iPhone may have revolutionized the way we communicate and use the internet. But we’re now in an era in which people are looking to disconnect from their phones more easily, and that shows in the new tech products from the last decade.

What do smartwatches, wireless earbuds and smart speakers have in common? They all allow us to access the internet without reaching for our phones, whether it’s skipping to the next track on your Spotify playlist, asking a virtual assistant for today’s weather forecast or getting a text message on your wrist. A mixed reality headset would seemingly do the opposite by further plunging you into whatever content you’re experiencing at the moment.

Even the developments in generative artificial intelligence, or AI, that can create content based on prompts, are designed to help us spend less time buried in screens. Google, for example, recently showed off a new Gmail feature called Help Me Write that can draft messages for you based on a quick prompt. Tools like these could shorten the amount of time we spend replying to emails and other communications, and could arguably be more impactful than new hardware. (In fact, if you’ve been following tech headlines in 2023, AI is apparently in the midst of its own “iPhone moment.”)

The slow-burn effect

In recent years, it’s taken longer for new Apple gadgets to establish a role in our lives, and the Apple Watch is the strongest example of this. When introducing it back in 2014, Apple initially positioned it as a personal timepiece by highlighting its stylish design and time-telling accuracy, before mentioning health and fitness.

But as the gadget matured and became more popular, Apple leaned more fully into health. It added ECG functionality in 2018 with the Series 4 model, enabling the watch to provide more data about cardiac health and signaling a turning point for the device. In 2019, Apple CEO Tim Cook told CNBC that Apple’s “greatest contribution to mankind” will be about health. Roughly three years after the first Apple Watch arrived, it became clear that health, fitness and wellness tracking would be the its most important purpose. The iPhone may not have been in everyone’s pockets right away, but its role as a handheld computer, MP3 player and phone was apparent from the start.

A wrist wearing the Apple Watch Series 4 44mm smartwatch against a yellow background. — The Apple Watch Series 4 was the first with ECG support.

Sarah Tew/CNET

Is it the right time for Apple’s rumored headset? I don’t have the answer, and I’m not sure if Apple does either. But one thing is for certain: If the headset is a hit, its success will look a lot different than that of the first iPhone. We might not understand the headset’s role in our lives until years after its release, if the Apple Watch’s trajectory is any indication. That wouldn’t deem it a failure, it’s just a sign of the times.

The so-called “iPhone moment” may be behind us for good. Or maybe it’s just changed.

Technologies

25 years after 9/11, the U.S. starts rolling back travel restrictions, from liquids to gate access

Years after 9/11, the U.S. government is walking back some security screenings as threats and technology evolve.

The Sept. 11, 2001, terror attacks reshaped how we travel, from how we pack our toiletries to what we wear when we fly. Airport checkpoints for almost a quarter century for most travelers have meant shoes off. Limitations on liquids. And no tearful, cinematic gateside farewells or joyful welcomes.

But 25 years later, the U.S. government is starting to ease some of the restrictions, which include measures that were tied to other attacks attempted in the months after 9/11.

Last year, the Department of Homeland Security, which was formed after the attacks, said flyers can leave their shoes on at airports, a major change for travelers going through regular security.

That rule was introduced after Richard Reid, who became known as the “shoe bomber,” tried and failed to ignite explosive material in his shoe on a Paris-to-Miami flight in December 2001.

Rules for liquids are officially unchanged. Those regulations for liquids in carry-ons stem from 2006, when British officials foiled a plot to bring liquid explosives on flights.

New scanners installed at some airport checkpoints allow travelers to leave liquids in their bags before going through screening, though availability varies by airport and checkpoint. Limits on liquid container size remain in effect.

“The technologies today are better than they were a long time ago and some of the technology that’s been deployed is better than it was five years ago,” said Jeff Price, a professor at the Metropolitan State University of Denver’s Department of Aviation and Aerospace Science and an airport management consultant.

Another change since that era is the number of options customers have for airport screening. The Transportation Security Administration, for $76.75 covering five years, offers PreCheck, in which travelers undergo prescreening services and can use expedited screening lanes.

“If you’ve got a few bucks, yeah, you can reduce the amount of screening and jump the line,” Price said. “The other side of that is when you do become a member of PreCheck, you give up a lot more of your personal data to the government, and that’s the trade-off.”

There’s also a private option with Clear, with a shorter identification check line, in exchange for prescreened biometric data.

Gate greetings return

The new changes are going beyond security.

TSA this week launched a free program allowing eligible trusted travelers, including TSA PreCheck members, to apply for access to secure gate areas without a boarding pass.

The program is called “Gateside,” and the agency has rolled it out at 13 U.S. airports, including Dallas Fort Worth International Airport, Los Angeles International Airport, Detroit Metropolitan Wayne County Airport and Salt Lake City International Airport.

The area beyond TSA screening has been heavily restricted since 9/11. In launching the program, the agency said PreCheck members who use the program can “meet family members at their gate, join a friend on a long layover for lunch or dinner, visit airport dining and shopping locations, or greet service members returning from deployment.”

Participants must apply online one to three days in advance and receive approval before entering through security.

Privatization attempt

Some of the tweaks to security have been more rocky.

The TSA late last month scrapped a program it called TSA Gold+ that would provide privatized security at certain airports.

The new head of TSA, David Cummins, who took the top role in early August, said that a new screening partnership program will “replace TSA Gold+ to better harness the role of the private sector in delivering a safer, more secure, and more efficient aviation system.”

TSA didn’t respond to requests for further comment.

Tampa International Airport in Florida had reviewed the program starting in May, in part because it could shield the airport from the impact of government shutdowns, airport Chief Operating Officer John Tiliacos told reporters last month. Those shutdowns left TSA officers without regular paychecks for months, and staffing shortages led to long lines at airports around the country. The chance to add new technology was also a draw.

Tampa decided not to move forward with the program, and TSA announced its replacement shortly after. Tampa’s Tiliacos told reporters last month “we weren’t quite satisfied that we were getting all of the answers to our questions regarding the technology” and that drove the airport’s decision to opt out.

Evolving threats

While some rules travelers have lived with for decades might be fading, the aviation sector is still dealing with changing threats.

“You have AI. You’ve got cybersecurity issues that continue to pop up. Drones are a major issue,” said Keith Jeffries, vice president of aviation security company K2 Security Screening Group, who is retired from the TSA and was the agency’s security director at Los Angeles International Airport. “It’s the role of security and protecting, especially the transportation sector, it’s getting broader, and other technologies are trying to keep up.”

As security technology evolves, so does the energy of potential attackers to overcome whatever obstacle they have and send their message.

Deterrents are important, but Jeffries said: “There is no such thing as the perfect security mousetrap. It doesn’t exist.”

Technologies

Houthis reportedly advance to key Red Sea island, further threatening crucial oil choke point

The advance raises the threat to shipping near the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, a waterway that connects the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden to global markets.

The Iran-backed Houthis reportedly advanced to Yemen’s strategic Perim Island on Friday, delivering a major boost to the militant group’s push to take control of one of the world’s most important shipping choke points.

The capture of Perim Island, which was reported by several news agencies, citing multiple Yemeni government sources, comes just one day after the Houthis seized Yemen’s port city of Mokha on the Red Sea coast. CNBC could not independently confirm the report.

The rapid ground offensive is seen as a severe setback to Saudi Arabia and the Yemeni forces it backs and puts Iran and its proxies on course to exercise control over two critically important oil choke points on either side of the Arabian Peninsula: the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and the Strait of Hormuz.

Perim Island is a small and rocky area of land that divides the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, a waterway that connects the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden and to global markets.

There are concerns that the Houthis’ advance toward the Bab el-Mandeb Strait could have significant ramifications for global trade, particularly if the militant group ratchets up threats or attacks on Red Sea shipping.

The Houthi advance prompted Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman to personally press President Donald Trump for U.S. military intervention, MS NOW reported later Friday, according to a person familiar with the conversations.

The crown prince spoke with Trump twice Thursday and urged him to strike the Iranian-backed group as it closed in on the Bab el-Mandeb. Trump declined, saying the U.S. does not plan to widen its regional military campaign to include the Houthis, according to the person, who was granted anonymity because of the sensitive nature of the conversations. Axios first reported the calls.

A senior administration official told CNBC the U.S. remains focused on protecting core national security interests, including freedom of navigation in the Red Sea, “while empowering our regional partners to take the lead in managing and resolving regional security challenges.”

The official added that the U.S. is “in continuous dialogue with Saudi Arabia.”

The capture of Mokha marked a “major blow” to Saudi Arabia as it raises the possibility of the group exerting a tighter grip on the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, according to Hamish Kinnear, principal Middle East and North Africa analyst at risk intelligence company Verisk Maplecroft.

Mokha is situated about 75 kilometers (46 miles) north of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.

“The Houthis were already threatening Saudi shipping from previous positions, but their capture of Mocha opens up the possibility of further advances towards the Bab el-Mandeb coastline and a tighter grip on the chokepoint,” Kinnear said in a research note.

As the war continues, Kinnear said both Tehran and Washington believe time is on their side, making a new truce unlikely for now.

“Oil and gas prices, and more specifically refined products such as diesel, will continue to tick upwards while that remains the case – even if US convoys and Strait of Hormuz export alternatives cushion the price impact,” Kinnear said.

The strategic importance of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait has grown significantly since the start of the U.S. and Israel’s war against Iran in late February, with the waterway emerging as an alternative route for crude moving toward Asia.

What next for oil prices?

Oil prices traded sharply lower on Friday, but both major benchmarks could still end the week above $100 per barrel for the first time since mid-May.

International benchmark Brent crude

The resilience of the oil market is being tested by a clearer recognition of the mounting threat to regional supply, strategists at ING said, with energy market participants seen repricing both the duration and severity of the conflict.

Even as flows continue through the Strait of Hormuz, ING’s strategists said flows remain well below prewar levels, underlining how fragile the situation has become.

“Saudi energy infrastructure and crude oil exports from the Red Sea are increasingly at risk, with the Houthis in Yemen targeting Saudi Arabia,” ING’s Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey said in a research note published Friday.

“As the Houthis have taken control of the Red Sea port of Mokha in Yemen, recent events increase the threat to shipping around the Bab al-Mandeb Strait,” they added.

— Luke Fountain contributed to this report.

Technologies

Wall Street analyst warns AI stock rally is approaching its peak. Here’s the analysis

Capital Economics warns that the AI stock market boom is approaching its end, with earnings growth expectations at dot-com bubble peak levels and foreign ownership of US stocks at record highs.

A variety of equity market bubble indicators suggest that while the S&P 500’s upward trajectory may continue this year, its medium-term outlook appears weak given the market’s current frothiness, according to Capital Economics. “Most indicators suggest the AI equity boom is nearing its conclusion,” Capital Economics’ senior market economist James Reilly stated Thursday in a note. Capital has maintained a more optimistic stance than most on the stock market since mid-2023, reflecting the belief that AI would be a transformative technology. Its year-end-2026 S&P 500 forecast has consistently exceeded consensus expectations. However, the firm has also maintained that the AI-driven rally constitutes a bubble that will eventually collapse. To identify and assess a late-stage market bubble, Reilly examines eight indicators, including valuations, earnings, index concentration, equity issuance, and foreign interest in U.S. equities. Some of these metrics are already at or near levels that preceded previous stock market peaks. The analysis reveals that while market variables like earnings expectations align with a market peak, others such as volatility and leverage appear slightly less alarming. Earnings stand out as the most significant warning sign. Expectations for S&P 500 earnings growth are at levels last seen during the dot-com bubble peak, while long-term EPS growth forecasts have surged to record highs. According to Reilly, the heavy concentration of this expected growth in the technology sector means that any signs of weakness in tech companies’ earnings will significantly impact the index. Other indicators are also flashing warning signs. Index concentration is at dot-com-era extremes, net equity issuance has turned positive, and foreign ownership of U.S. stocks is at a record high. Reilly noted that another wave of IPOs and share sales could be particularly significant, as similar issuance booms have historically coincided with market peaks. “Based on past performance, this suggests that the end of the bubble is just months away, rather than years,” he said. Measures of leverage are not yet alarming compared to other factors, though the analyst warns they are moving in a “concerning direction.” While volatility metrics appear consistent with a mid-stage bubble, Reilly notes that constituent-level volatility is not as extreme as it was near the end of the dot-com boom. “While we continue to believe that the S&P 500 will rally from around 7,650 now to 8,250 by end-2026, we ultimately forecast it to fall back to 6,500 by end-2027,” he wrote. These projections would equate to an 8% gain this year and a 21% decline in 2027.

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