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Waiting for a Recession to Buy a Home? This Realtor Weighs In

Here are the most important things to know about mortgage rates during an economic downturn.

The economy’s been all over the place lately. Inflation might be coming down, but rising tariffs, stock market dips and global uncertainty are keeping everyone on edge. With mortgage rates bouncing around, homebuyers are asking me, Will housing become more affordable in a recession?

After more than 20 years in real estate, I’ve seen my share of ups and downs, from boom times to full-blown crashes, like 2008. The truth? There’s always opportunity, even in a downturn. The market doesn’t stop during a recession. It just shifts. And if you’re ready, that shift can actually work in your favor.

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Let’s break down what a recession really means for mortgage rates, home prices and your opportunity to buy a home. 

Is a recession on its way?

There are plenty of recession warning signs right now. Layoffs are picking up, GDP is slowing and consumer confidence has dipped. Paychecks aren’t going as far, and retirement accounts are taking hits. 

While less disposable income and tighter budgets point to a general slowdown in the economy, technically, we’re not in a recession. Not yet. It would take two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth to hit that definition. But for a lot of folks, it already feels like one. 

High prices and inflation aren’t the same thing. Even if the inflation rate isn’t going up, the cost of everyday goods and services is still high, and budgets are getting hammered. When folks feel the squeeze every time they swipe a card at the grocery store, it shapes how they think about making huge purchases like a home.

Will the Fed cut interest rates?

Borrowing costs have been expensive for the last several years, making households and businesses wary about taking out loans. The Federal Reserve will probably cut interest rates again later this year, eventually making financing cheaper. 

But those cuts won’t come for a while. The Fed’s a bit stuck right now. The economy’s losing steam and inflation is cooling, but not fast enough. The central bank is being cautious about shifting policy, especially with tariffs driving prices back up.

Though lower interest rates will eventually impact the housing market, the Fed doesn’t directly control mortgage rates. Mortgage rates move based on many factors, such as the bond market and investor expectations. Even when the Fed starts cutting rates again, don’t expect mortgage rates to drop like crazy. Many of those expected cuts are already priced into the market. 

Will mortgage rates drop in a recession?

Mortgage rates often fall during an economic depression, as we saw recently in 2020 and earlier in 2008. Lower rates help boost the economy, and the Fed knows that.

But this time around, things are messier. There’s volatility everywhere. Even though rates could drop, they might also shoot back up with any good economic news. Like many experts in the real estate industry, I think average rates for a 30-year fixed mortgage will hover between 6.5% to 7.25% for most of 2025, with weekly jumps and dips in that range. 

If you’re holding out for 4% or 5% mortgage rates, you may be waiting longer than you’d like. It’s going to take far more negative economic news to see rates fall in a big way.

It’s also worth pointing out that your personal financial situation matters more than your interest rate. If you’ve got a solid stream of income and a long-term plan for paying off a home loan, waiting for a perfect rate might not be worth it.

Will home prices go down in a recession?

Home prices are the big question. And the answer is… they won’t likely go down in a big way.

Historically, home prices don’t fall much during recessions. The 2008 housing crash was the exception, not the rule. What we’ll probably see is slower appreciation or small dips in certain markets, especially in areas hit by higher insurance costs, taxes or natural disasters (Florida, Texas and Louisiana come to mind).

But nationwide, we’re still dealing with low inventory. Until that changes, it’s hard to see prices dropping dramatically. Plus, given high construction and labor costs, it’s clear home prices aren’t falling off a cliff anytime soon.

Is it cheaper to buy a home during a recession?

If you’re financially stable, it could be cheaper to buy a home in a recession. You might find better deals, less competition and more negotiating power. But if lending tightens, getting a loan could get tougher. That’s something we’re already starting to see with condos and certain types of properties.

And don’t overlook the «wealth effect.» When people feel wealthier, like when their stock portfolio or home value is up, they’re more confident making big purchases. 

But when those numbers start to slide, or there’s even a threat of job insecurity, even if nothing’s really changed day to day, people pull back. That affects buyer activity in a big way. If someone just lost $20,000 in their 401(k), they’re not rushing to get a new mortgage.

What’s the best time to buy a home? 

The best time to buy a home is when it makes sense for you. If you’ve got a steady income and strong credit, and you’re ready to settle down, a recession could actually work in your favor. 

Just don’t wait around for some magical «perfect time» to take out a mortgage. The green light most people are waiting for doesn’t exist. But if you prepare, stay informed and work with the right team, you can make a smart move no matter what the economy’s doing.

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Technologies

Did You Download the White House App? Here Are Its Hidden Security Risks

Cybersecurity researchers have serious concerns about how the app was built.

The White House mobile app has been available for both Android and iOS users for over a week now, and the Trump administration is proudly touting that the app has received 2 million downloads on the White House Instagram page. However, the app’s threats to your personal data, online security and privacy concerns make it something you should think twice about downloading.

The White House announcement says the app’s goal is to deliver «unparalleled access to the Trump administration.» However, there are many security concerns, including location tracking and sketchy features. The White House has not responded to a request for comment.

The big question is, should you download it? I don’t recommend it. Here’s why. 

What’s in The White House App?

When I downloaded it soon after its release, the app opened with music and a brief collage video of President Donald Trump. It has pages on affordability, including the prices of things like eggs and milk (but not gas). There’s an overtime calculator. And there are links to articles from Trump’s favored news outlets, like Fox News and Newsmax, along with White House press releases.

The app also features livestreams and videos of press briefings, links to the White House’s social feeds and photos of the president.

Why I deleted The White House app so fast 

Behind all those tabs are hair-raising privacy and security issues that have the internet and experts alarmed. 

One X user, @Thereallo1026, decompiled the White House app and blogged about it, reporting that the Android app tracks your location as often as every 4.5 minutes and shares a lot of other information, like your notifications and perhaps even your phone number, with a third-party server. 

Another red flag is that the code for YouTube embeds comes from a personal GitHub account. Thereallo said that if that GitHub account gets compromised, it can affect every user of the White House’s app. 

Another cybersecurity researcher, Atomic Computer Services, posted similar concerns about the iOS app. The researchers found that the app reported to the App Store that it did not collect location data, when in fact it included the capability to do GPS tracking. It’s unclear whether that tracking actually happens, but the code is there, Atomic Computer said.

Other concerns identified by Atomic Computer included the removal of privacy consent banners from third-party content viewed in the app and minimal security protections. «We’ve audited apps for startups with three employees that had better security than this,» Atomic Computer wrote.

Pieter Arntz, a researcher at the cybersecurity software provider Malwarebytes, said in an email to CNET that the White House app relies heavily on third-party sources for things like notifications and widgets. 

«In practical terms, that means external providers can influence what data is collected and when features like location‑based messaging are enabled, because much of that logic is configured on their servers rather than baked into the app code itself,» Arntz said. «For a high‑profile government app, the more these decisions sit with outside companies, the harder it is to guarantee strict data‑minimization and full transparency to users about how their information is handled.»

Government-sponsored apps to inform people are commonplace, but this one poses significant risks, experts said. A spokesperson for the Center for Democracy and Technology, which advocates for transparency and privacy in government technology, told CNET that «mobile apps can be a helpful tool for making government more accessible. But this administration has given people a lot of reasons to worry about their privacy, and this app only raises more questions about what the federal government is doing with our personal data.»

For me, this app is a hard pass. I deleted it 10 minutes after downloading it. 

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Technologies

Amazon Is Pulling Support for Kindles From 2012 or Earlier. What to Do Now

If there’s a book you’ve been waiting to read on your old Kindle device, make sure you download it before May 20.

That Kindle device you’ve been holding onto for 15 years now has an expiration date, as Amazon will end support for Kindle models from 2012 or earlier on May 20. An Australian Kindle user first reported the change before Amazon confirmed the news to PCMag and said it will soon email users in the US. 

The books that you already downloaded on your Kindle device won’t disappear after next month, but you won’t be able to connect to the network to buy, borrow or download new ones. 

If you still have a book that you want to finish reading on one of these devices, make sure that you don’t deregister the device or do a factory reset. In the email shared by an Australian user on Reddit, Amazon says if you deregister or reset the device, you won’t be able to re-register the device or use it at all afterward. 

A representative for Amazon has not yet responded to a request to comment from CNET. 

The company also included a promo code in the email for 20% off select new Kindle devices and an ebook credit that’s added to your account after you purchase a new device. However, there’s no word on whether this discount is limited to Australia or if a version will be offered to US users. 

Switching devices

Kindle devices released in 2012 or earlier will lose the ability to download books after May 20. The devices that will be affected are: 

  • Kindle 1st and 2nd Generation 
  • Kindle DX and DX Graphite
  • Kindle Keyboard
  • Kindle 4
  • Kindle Touch
  • Kindle 5
  • Kindle Paperwhite 1st Generation

The first-generation model for Kindle was released in 2007, and e-readers have improved a bit in the time since. Amazon told Engadget that fewer than 3% of its users still use these old devices. 

In the email to customers, the company said users will still be able to access their Kindle library and the Kindle store using the Android, iOS or desktop app. You can still read and download books by using the Kindle app on your phone or PC. 

If this service loss feels like a good time to move on from the Kindle world, there are other e-reader options. Calibre is a free, open-source ebook manager that offers a range of features, like reading and organizing ebooks from multiple sources, as well as downloading news articles and websites.

If you’re looking for a newer Kindle model or a different reading tablet, check out the CNET list for this year’s best e-readers. 

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Technologies

Overwatch’s Next Hero Is Sierra, but Does That Mean the Rumors Were Wrong?

The new damage hero joins the roster next week, but lore and gameplay details are still under wraps.

After adding five new heroes in February, Overwatch just gave players another look at the new hero coming in season 2 next week. While we didn’t get gameplay details, the new hero trailer revealed that hero 51 is Sierra, and season 2 will be titled Summit. 

The game dropped its first look at Sierra last week, and a few details in the new artwork seemed to be in line with expectations that she’s an ally of damage hero Ashe. Ashe’s Deadlock Gang is mentioned in the new trailer, although Sierra is working with Overwatch in trying to stop them. We don’t know yet whether Sierra has ties to other Overwatch heroes and factions.

 Alec Dawson, Overwatch’s associate game director, said in February that the next hero would be another damage hero with a «really satisfying skill shot,» which we maybe glimpsed in the trailer when Sierra fires some kind of homing dart onto Emre after he steals something from Watchpoint: Grand Mesa. We also see her use a fully automatic rifle as well as tether to her drone for some aerial maneuvering, which could be hints at the rest of her kit. 

While I do love a good skillshot, I also feel like the game has been struggling with damage hero releases over the past year — particularly heroes who have the ability to quickly eliminate someone out of nowhere. The newest damage heroes Anran and Emre didn’t have this problem, but the previous two, Freja and Vendetta, were consistently banned after release because of their quick time to kill, combined with their ability to consistently surprise enemies. I’m hoping Sierra’s skillshot is less bursty. 

Even before the art was revealed last week, fans had started to speculate that Overwatch’s season 2 hero would be Frankie, a member of Ashe’s Deadlock Gang. She appeared in the Deadlock Rebels novel by Lyndsay Ely, which follows Ashe and the hero now known as Cassidy early in their outlaw careers. In the book, Frankie makes contact with the two characters by sending them a tiny fly-like drone — perhaps a smaller version of the drone in Sierra’s character art. 

The trailer shows Sierra working to stop the Deadlock Gang (who are helping Emre and Freja steal weapons for Talon), but it’s unclear whether Sierra is another character entirely or whether she’s Frankie after taking a different path.

The game’s Reign of Talon season 1 is wrapping up in the next week. The current season kicked off the year-long storyline about Vendetta taking over Talon and also introduced five new heroes into the roster. Devs have promised another new hero each season during the storyline, and today’s hero trailer gives us a few more hints about Sierra. 

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