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Waiting for a Recession to Buy a Home? This Realtor Weighs In

Here are the most important things to know about mortgage rates during an economic downturn.

The economy’s been all over the place lately. Inflation might be coming down, but rising tariffs, stock market dips and global uncertainty are keeping everyone on edge. With mortgage rates bouncing around, homebuyers are asking me, Will housing become more affordable in a recession?

After more than 20 years in real estate, I’ve seen my share of ups and downs, from boom times to full-blown crashes, like 2008. The truth? There’s always opportunity, even in a downturn. The market doesn’t stop during a recession. It just shifts. And if you’re ready, that shift can actually work in your favor.

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Let’s break down what a recession really means for mortgage rates, home prices and your opportunity to buy a home. 

Is a recession on its way?

There are plenty of recession warning signs right now. Layoffs are picking up, GDP is slowing and consumer confidence has dipped. Paychecks aren’t going as far, and retirement accounts are taking hits. 

While less disposable income and tighter budgets point to a general slowdown in the economy, technically, we’re not in a recession. Not yet. It would take two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth to hit that definition. But for a lot of folks, it already feels like one. 

High prices and inflation aren’t the same thing. Even if the inflation rate isn’t going up, the cost of everyday goods and services is still high, and budgets are getting hammered. When folks feel the squeeze every time they swipe a card at the grocery store, it shapes how they think about making huge purchases like a home.

Will the Fed cut interest rates?

Borrowing costs have been expensive for the last several years, making households and businesses wary about taking out loans. The Federal Reserve will probably cut interest rates again later this year, eventually making financing cheaper. 

But those cuts won’t come for a while. The Fed’s a bit stuck right now. The economy’s losing steam and inflation is cooling, but not fast enough. The central bank is being cautious about shifting policy, especially with tariffs driving prices back up.

Though lower interest rates will eventually impact the housing market, the Fed doesn’t directly control mortgage rates. Mortgage rates move based on many factors, such as the bond market and investor expectations. Even when the Fed starts cutting rates again, don’t expect mortgage rates to drop like crazy. Many of those expected cuts are already priced into the market. 

Will mortgage rates drop in a recession?

Mortgage rates often fall during an economic depression, as we saw recently in 2020 and earlier in 2008. Lower rates help boost the economy, and the Fed knows that.

But this time around, things are messier. There’s volatility everywhere. Even though rates could drop, they might also shoot back up with any good economic news. Like many experts in the real estate industry, I think average rates for a 30-year fixed mortgage will hover between 6.5% to 7.25% for most of 2025, with weekly jumps and dips in that range. 

If you’re holding out for 4% or 5% mortgage rates, you may be waiting longer than you’d like. It’s going to take far more negative economic news to see rates fall in a big way.

It’s also worth pointing out that your personal financial situation matters more than your interest rate. If you’ve got a solid stream of income and a long-term plan for paying off a home loan, waiting for a perfect rate might not be worth it.

Will home prices go down in a recession?

Home prices are the big question. And the answer is… they won’t likely go down in a big way.

Historically, home prices don’t fall much during recessions. The 2008 housing crash was the exception, not the rule. What we’ll probably see is slower appreciation or small dips in certain markets, especially in areas hit by higher insurance costs, taxes or natural disasters (Florida, Texas and Louisiana come to mind).

But nationwide, we’re still dealing with low inventory. Until that changes, it’s hard to see prices dropping dramatically. Plus, given high construction and labor costs, it’s clear home prices aren’t falling off a cliff anytime soon.

Is it cheaper to buy a home during a recession?

If you’re financially stable, it could be cheaper to buy a home in a recession. You might find better deals, less competition and more negotiating power. But if lending tightens, getting a loan could get tougher. That’s something we’re already starting to see with condos and certain types of properties.

And don’t overlook the «wealth effect.» When people feel wealthier, like when their stock portfolio or home value is up, they’re more confident making big purchases. 

But when those numbers start to slide, or there’s even a threat of job insecurity, even if nothing’s really changed day to day, people pull back. That affects buyer activity in a big way. If someone just lost $20,000 in their 401(k), they’re not rushing to get a new mortgage.

What’s the best time to buy a home? 

The best time to buy a home is when it makes sense for you. If you’ve got a steady income and strong credit, and you’re ready to settle down, a recession could actually work in your favor. 

Just don’t wait around for some magical «perfect time» to take out a mortgage. The green light most people are waiting for doesn’t exist. But if you prepare, stay informed and work with the right team, you can make a smart move no matter what the economy’s doing.

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Why Are Switch 2 Games So Expensive? Trump’s Tariffs May Not Be Sole Factor

It still comes down to money.

Wednesday’s reveal of the Switch 2 had a lot of buzz from Nintendo surrounding its successor to the Switch. One shocking bit, though, was the high price of its games. There’s a lot of confusion, especially with news of President Donald Trump’s increased tariffs on many trading partners, including Japan. 

After the Switch 2 Direct, Nintendo released the full details of the upcoming console and games on its website. The price of Mario Kart World shocked gamers and led to some disdain, as the $80 MSRP was $10 more than what most new games cost today. This led many to wonder if this would be a new normal for game prices due to Trump’s tariffs or if Nintendo was just being greedy. The answer, however, might be something completely different. 

Are Nintendo Switch 2 game prices hiking?

To start, some details need to be cleared up. Some people have posted on social media that the price of Nintendo’s Switch 2 games, at least in the US, will be $90. That is incorrect, as of right now. 

One X user posted Switch 2 EU prices for Mario Kart World, which start at 80 euros for a digital version and 90 euros for the physical copy. Typically, US and EU games match in price, which caused some to assume that this pricing would be the case for the US. 

US retailers, however, already posted their Switch 2 game prices, and Nintendo-published games are listed at $80.

Will Trump’s tariffs cause the Switch 2 to cost more?

As for Trump’s tariffs, that is unlikely to be a driver of this price bump. Tariffs are not applied to digital goods, and when the prices were published, there were no tariffs on Japan. Plus, games are similarly expensive in other countries like Canada and the UK.

With that cleared up, why are Nintendo games on the Switch 2 so expensive? One likely reason is game storage. 

Read More: All the Nintendo Games You Can Update to Switch 2 for Free

The Switch 2 uses what Nintendo calls game-key cards, which are Switch 2 cartridges that don’t have all the game data on the cartridge itself. This helps save on production costs as storage is expensive. The original Switch cartridges went up to 32GB of storage, which doesn’t seem like a lot these days, with some games taking up 100GB or more of storage, but this is for the original Switch. Only a few games, like The Witcher 3, went above 32GB because the graphics for the Switch weren’t on the high end like with a PC, PS5 or Xbox Series console, where a Witcher 3 install size starts at 50GB. 

Switch 2 games are going to be bigger in size — there is little doubt about it. CD Projekt Red confirmed it would put its Cyberpunk 2077: Ultimate Edition on one 64GB cartridge, and there will likely be other games to surpass that 64GB. With the max size of the cartridge doubling in size, it adds to the price of the physical card, as not only does storage have to be bigger, but they will need to transfer data faster. That can get more expensive for physical copies, unlike optical discs, which are still the same price whether it has 20GB or 100GB on the disc. 

What does all this mean for gamers?

This leads to a dilemma for publishers: Put the entire game on the physical card and sell it at a loss, increase the price of the physical copy with the full game on it or use the game-key card to have a card with minimal storage, requiring gamers to download the entire game.

Read More: The 17 Best Nintendo Switch Games Right Now

It appears that Nintendo went with door No. 2. This doesn’t come as much of a surprise, knowing the company. Anyone who wants to save money on games knows that Nintendo will seldom bring the price down of its own games. Mario Kart 8 Deluxe, for example, is 8 years old and is still full price on Nintendo’s website. 

According to an industry analysis from Niko Partners, this new pricing could become the new normal in a couple of years when it comes to physical cartridges.

«While there has been some sticker shock regarding the price of games increasing from $60 to $70 or $80, these price points are set to become industry standard over the next two years, especially so for Nintendo first-party games,» Niko Partners said in a statement Wednesday. «One reason for the higher price is the increased cost of the new and faster Game Cards themselves, with higher capacities being more expensive to manufacture than a PS5 Blu-ray disc.»

Nintendo didn’t respond to a request for comment about the higher price of its games. 

That said, this doesn’t explain the lower price of Donkey Kong Bananza, which comes out in July; that’s listed on Nintendo’s site for $70. This could mean the game isn’t using a larger storage card, but that can’t be said for sure until the game comes out. It’s unclear how things will change in the future.

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Nintendo Switch 2 Pre-orders in US Delayed Due to Trump’s Tariffs

The Switch 2 launch is still happening on June 5, and preorders outside the US seem unchanged.

Nintendo Switch 2 preorders in the US were to start April 9, but it appears those plans have changed due to the new tariffs imposed this week by President Donald Trump. It’s unclear if this means Nintendo will also have to increase the price of the Switch successor, which currently starts at $450. 

Nintendo said Friday that it’s delaying Switch 2 preorders in the US, but its June release date is unaffected. 

«Pre-orders for Nintendo Switch 2 in the U.S. will not start April 9, 2025 in order to assess the potential impact of tariffs and evolving market conditions,» the company said in a statement. «Nintendo will update timing at a later date. The launch date of June 5, 2025 is unchanged.»

Nintendo didn’t indicate if preorder dates outside the US would change, but Eurogamer reports that preorders are live at various retailers in the UK.

A tariff of 24% has been applied by the US to goods from Japan. Were that rate to be applied directly to the Switch 2’s announced price, it would rise to $558, but it would be up to Nintendo how much of the tariff it will pass on to consumers.

This is a developing story.

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Technologies

Twelve South’s Foldable Wireless Charger for iPhone and Apple Watch Is Up to 27% Off at Amazon

This handy accessory makes it easier to travel with your Apple gear and stay charged wherever you go.

Whether you’re traveling for business or off on a wonderful family vacation, charging your stuff shouldn’t be something you have to worry about. Taking extra chargers and cables can be a pain, and they all take up space in your bag. But the handy Twelve South Butterfly SE charger is a compact alternative that can wirelessly charge an iPhone and an Apple Watch at the same time. And it’s available with up to 27% off right now at Amazon.

That top line discount applies to the pink version, though the white model is only $7 more and other colors are seeing 15% off the usual $100 price tag if you have a strong preference. It’s not clear how long the discounts will last, though. 

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The charger itself offers a way to wirelessly charge a iPhone and Apple Watch from a single AC outlet, and you can even charge your AirPods when your phone is done, too. And because this is a Qi2 charger you’ll get a full 15 watts of wireless charging for compatible devices — including the best iPhones.

When you’re not using the Butterfly SE, it folds up so it can be slid into a pocket, bag or luggage without taking up too much space. It really is the perfect partner for people who like to travel light.

Unfortunately, this charger doesn’t come with an AC adapter in the box, so you’ll need to provide your own. Make sure it’s rated for 20 watts or more. If you need to buy one, Apple’s 20-watt USB-C charger is just $15 right now.

Why this deal matters

We all carry multiple devices around with us these days. Anything that can make charging them more convenient is a win in our books, especially when you’re traveling. This charger takes up little space when it isn’t being used and charges quickly when it is.

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