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Crude oil prices declined for three straight sessions on Friday, closing essentially flat for the week, as investors expect the temporary shutdown of Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline to have a smaller effect on supply availability than initially anticipated.

West Texas Intermediate futures dropped 1.6% to end Friday at $100.30 per barrel, while Brent crude—a key international benchmark—decreased 0.9% to trade at $103.87. U.S. crude oil held steady weekly against a slight dip in Brent by nearly one percent.

Prices had surged more than 5% following a drone strike originating from Iraq that damaged the Saudi pipeline on Wednesday, triggering its shutdown.

“Mid Eastern oil shipments show surprising resilience despite the interruption to Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline,” explained Natasha Kaneva, JPMorgan’s global commodities strategy lead.

JPMorgan projects that Middle Eastern oil throughput averaged approximately 17 million barrels daily over the last ten days—roughly 6 million barrels per day shy of the 2025 benchmark.

Imagery indicates Saudi Arabia has transported 2.8 million barrels per day across the Strait of Hormuz during the preceding six days, up dramatically from just 700,000 barrels per day in August; total export volume reached 5 million bpd on Tuesday according to the analyst.

Kaneva warned that sustaining such volumes may prove challenging, noting that the alternative route seems functional barring Iranian approval.

Helima Croft, RBC Capital Markets’ global commodity strategy chief, emphasized the severity of potential disruptions to crude and refined products.

Croft indicated that Yemeni Houthi supporters in Iran likely maintain access to drone and weaponry supplies necessary for continued strikes on the East-West Pipeline and Red Sea energy assets.

Meanwhile, Rapidan Energy forecasts that the pipeline disruption will limit Saudi crude output and exports through at minimum September’s conclusion.

“Risk remains tilted toward greater disruption should the pipeline stalls beyond September or if Iran, the Houthis, or affiliated proxy factions intensify their offensive operations,” Rapidan advised on Thursday.

U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration has greenlit a potential $24.3 billion arms deal involving the sale of nearly 50 F-35 fighter jets to Saudi Arabia, marking a significant enhancement of military support for the kingdom as it grapples with escalating assaults from the Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen.

The proposed package, disclosed on Thursday, encompasses 48 of Lockheed Martin’s F-35 stealth fighters — recognized globally as the most sophisticated aerial combat platforms — alongside 49 Pratt & Whitney engines and additional components.

“This envisioned transaction aligns with the foreign policy goals and national security priorities of the United States by bolstering the defenses of a key strategic partner outside NATO that serves as a stabilizing influence and catalyst for economic advancement across the Gulf region,” the Department of State emphasized in an official release.

The timing of the announcement coincides with a surge in Houthi operations targeting Saudi territory, including a rapid ground campaign aimed at asserting dominance over the Bab el-Mandeb Strait — a critical maritime corridor essential for global oil transport.

Washington maintains that equipping Riyadh with enhanced defensive capabilities will strengthen its ability to counter emerging dangers without disrupting the existing regional military equilibrium — particularly underscoring America’s long-standing commitment to preserving Israel’s qualitative military edge over adversaries in the Middle East.

Congressional review of the proposed agreement spans 30 days, during which legislators retain the option to voice objections or seek to halt the transfer. Several lawmakers have expressed reservations thus far.

Representative Raja Krishnamoorthi, a Democrat from Illinois, cautioned against proceeding with the sale given that U.S. intelligence agencies have flagged risks associated with transferring cutting-edge military technology to a nation where Chinese influence might gain access. He stated via social platform: “We cannot allow our premier stealth fighter aircraft to fall into the hands of the Chinese Communist Party through indirect means.”

Previously, Congress had scrutinized similar arms transactions with Saudi Arabia following the assassination of journalist Jamal Khashoggi in 2018 — an incident that drew widespread condemnation and intensified debates over arms exports to the Gulf state.

In May of last year, President Trump publicly commended Saudi Arabia after the White House confirmed plans for the kingdom to channel $600 billion into multiple bilateral investment initiatives. Included among these accords was a landmark defense procurement worth close to $142 billion, which officials described as delivering “advanced warfare systems and services from more than ten American defense contractors.”

Given his strong rapport with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, President Trump had hosted the royal at the White House in November, further solidifying diplomatic and economic ties between the two nations.