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Houthis reportedly advance to key Red Sea island, further threatening crucial oil choke point

The advance raises the threat to shipping near the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, a waterway that connects the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden to global markets.

The Iran-backed Houthis reportedly advanced to Yemen’s strategic Perim Island on Friday, delivering a major boost to the militant group’s push to take control of one of the world’s most important shipping choke points.

The capture of Perim Island, which was reported by several news agencies, citing multiple Yemeni government sources, comes just one day after the Houthis seized Yemen’s port city of Mokha on the Red Sea coast. CNBC could not independently confirm the report.

The rapid ground offensive is seen as a severe setback to Saudi Arabia and the Yemeni forces it backs and puts Iran and its proxies on course to exercise control over two critically important oil choke points on either side of the Arabian Peninsula: the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and the Strait of Hormuz.

Perim Island is a small and rocky area of land that divides the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, a waterway that connects the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden and to global markets.

There are concerns that the Houthis advance toward the Bab el-Mandeb Strait could have significant ramifications for global trade, particularly if the militant group ratchets up threats or attacks on Red Sea shipping.

Indeed, the capture of Mokha marked a “major blow” to Saudi Arabia as it raises the possibility of the group exerting a tighter grip on the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, according to Hamish Kinnear, principal Middle East and North Africa analyst at risk intelligence company Verisk Maplecroft.

Yemen’s port city of Mokha is situated about 75 kilometers (46 miles) north of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.

“The Houthis were already threatening Saudi shipping from previous positions, but their capture of Mocha opens up the possibility of further advances towards the Bab el-Mandeb coastline and a tighter grip on the chokepoint,” Kinnear said in a research note.

As the war continues, Kinnear said both Tehran and Washington believe time is on their side, making a new truce unlikely for now.

“Oil and gas prices, and more specifically refined products such as diesel, will continue to tick upwards while that remains the case – even if US convoys and Strait of Hormuz export alternatives cushion the price impact,” Kinnear said.

The strategic importance of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait has grown significantly since the start of the U.S. and Israel’s war against Iran in late February, with the waterway emerging as an alternative route for crude moving toward Asia.

What next for oil prices?

Oil prices traded sharply lower on Friday, but both major benchmarks could still end the week above $100 per barrel for the first time since mid-May.

International benchmark Brent crude

The resilience of the oil market is being tested by a clearer recognition of the mounting threat to regional supply, strategists at ING said, with energy market participants seen repricing both the duration and severity of the conflict.

Even as flows continue through the Strait of Hormuz, ING’s strategists said flows remain well below pre-war levels, underlining how fragile the situation has become.

“Saudi energy infrastructure and crude oil exports from the Red Sea are increasingly at risk, with the Houthis in Yemen targeting Saudi Arabia,” ING’s Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey said in a research note published Friday.

“As the Houthis have taken control of the Red Sea port of Mokha in Yemen, recent events increase the threat to shipping around the Bab al-Mandeb Strait,” they added.

Technologies

25 Years After 9/11, the U.S. Begins Relaxing Travel Rules on Liquids, Shoes and Gate Access

Twenty-five years after 9/11, the U.S. is easing several travel restrictions, including shoe removal, liquid-screening friction and gate access limits. New programs and screening options are changing airport rules, though security officials say threats continue to evolve.

The Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks transformed air travel, from the way passengers pack toiletries to what they wear on flights. For nearly a quarter century, most travelers moving through airport checkpoints had to remove their shoes, follow liquid limits and say goodbye to emotional gateside farewells or warm welcomes.

Now, 25 years later, the U.S. government is beginning to loosen some of those restrictions, including measures linked to other attacks attempted in the months following 9/11.

Last year, the Department of Homeland Security, created after the attacks, announced that passengers could keep their shoes on during standard airport security screening.

That policy followed the December 2001 attempt by Richard Reid, later known as the “shoe bomber,” to set off explosive material hidden in his shoe on a Paris-to-Miami flight.

Liquid rules remain officially in place. Those carry-on liquid regulations date back to 2006, when British authorities stopped a plot to smuggle liquid explosives onto flights.

New scanners at some airport checkpoints now let passengers keep liquids inside their bags while being screened, though access to the technology varies by airport and checkpoint. Restrictions on container sizes still apply.

Jeff Price, a professor in the Metropolitan State University of Denver’s Department of Aviation and Aerospace Science and an airport management consultant, said today’s technology is stronger than it was years ago, with some deployed systems improved since five years prior.

One major shift since that period is the wider range of airport screening choices. For $76.75 over five years, the Transportation Security Administration offers TSA PreCheck, which lets travelers complete prescreening and use faster screening lanes.

Price noted that paying for the program can mean less screening and a quicker line, but members also give the government far more personal information as part of the exchange.

There is also a private option, Clear, which offers a shorter identification check line in return for prescreened biometric data.

Gate greetings return

The latest changes go beyond security screening.

This week, TSA launched a free program that allows eligible trusted travelers, including TSA PreCheck members, to apply for entry into secure gate areas without a boarding pass.

Called “Gateside,” the program has been introduced at 13 U.S. airports, including Dallas Fort Worth International Airport, Los Angeles International Airport, Detroit Metropolitan Wayne County Airport and Salt Lake City International Airport.

The space beyond TSA screening has been tightly restricted since 9/11. In announcing the program, TSA said PreCheck members using it could meet relatives at the gate, have lunch or dinner with a friend during a long layover, visit airport restaurants and shops or greet service members returning from deployment.

Participants need to apply online one to three days ahead of travel and receive approval before passing through security.

Privatization effort faces setbacks

Some security adjustments have been less smooth.

Late last month, TSA ended TSA Gold+, a program that would have provided privatized security at selected airports.

David Cummins, the new head of TSA who took the top position in early August, said a new screening partnership program will replace TSA Gold+ to make better use of the private sector in creating a safer, more secure and more efficient aviation system.

TSA did not respond to requests for additional comment.

Tampa International Airport in Florida began reviewing the program in May, in part because it could protect the airport from the effects of government shutdowns, airport Chief Operating Officer John Tiliacos told reporters last month. Those shutdowns left TSA officers without regular pay for months, and staffing gaps contributed to long airport lines across the country. The possibility of adding new technology was also attractive.

Tampa chose not to proceed with the program, and TSA announced its replacement shortly afterward. Tiliacos told reporters last month that the airport was not fully satisfied with the answers it received about the technology, a factor that led to its decision to opt out.

Changing security challenges

Even as some rules travelers have followed for decades appear to be winding down, the aviation industry continues to face shifting threats.

Keith Jeffries, vice president of aviation security company K2 Security Screening Group, a TSA retiree and former security director at Los Angeles International Airport, said the field now has to account for AI, cybersecurity problems and drones. He said the role of security, especially in protecting the transportation sector, is expanding while new technologies try to keep pace.

As screening technology advances, so does the determination of potential attackers to overcome obstacles and make their message felt.

Jeffries said deterrents still matter, but there is no perfect security solution.

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Technologies

Wall Street firm believes the AI stock market boom is ‘nearing an end.’ Here’s why

Stretched earnings expectations, extreme concentration and surging equity issuance point to growing bubble risks.

A range of equity market bubble indicators show that while the S & P 500 ‘s rally has further to run this year, its medium-term prospects look poor given how frothy the market has become, according to Capital Economics. “Most indicators suggest the AI equity boom is nearing an end,” Capital Economics’ senior market economist James Reilly said Thursday in a note. Capital has been more bullish than most on the stock market since mid-2023, reflecting a view that AI will be a transformative technology. Its year end-2026 S & P 500 forecast has consistently been above consensus. But the firm has also maintained that the AI-driven rally is a bubble that will eventually burst. To assess and spot a late-stage market bubble, Reilly looks at eight indicators including valuations, earnings, index concentration, equity issuance and foreign interest in U.S. equities. Some of those measures are already at or near levels that preceded previous stock market peaks. The analysis shows that while market variables such as earnings expectations look consistent with a market top, others such as volatility and leverage look slightly less alarming. Earnings stand out as the biggest warning sign. Expectations for S & P 500 earnings growth are around levels seen only at the peak of the dot-com bubble, while long-term EPS growth forecasts have surged to a record high. According to Reilly, the heavy concentration of this expected growth in the tech sector means that any signs of weakness in the tech firms’ earnings will weigh heavily on the index. Other indicators are also flashing warning signs. Index concentration is around dot-com-era extremes, net equity issuance has turned positive and foreign ownership of U.S. stocks is at a record high. Reilly said another wave of IPOs and share sales could be particularly significant, since similar issuance booms have historically coincided with market peaks. “On past form, this suggests that the end of the bubble is just months away, rather than years,” he said. Measures of leverage are not yet alarming compared to other factors, though the analyst warns that they are heading in a “concerning direction.” While volatility metrics look consistent with a mid -stage bubble, Reilly notes that constituent -level volatility isn’t as extreme as it was near the end of the dotcom boom. “While we continue to think that the S & P 500 will rally from around 7,650 now to 8,250 by end-2026 , we ultimately forecast it to fall back to 6,500 by end -2027,” he wrote. Those assumptions would equate to 8% upside this year and a 21% slide in 2027.

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Technologies

Iran-backed Houthi forces seize Yemen’s Mokha port, advance toward vital oil chokepoint

Iran-backed Houthi militants have taken control of Yemen’s Mokha port, moving closer to the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and raising alarms over global oil trade. Analysts warn the seizure could tighten Iranian leverage and push oil prices higher.

The Iran-aligned Houthi militia has taken over Yemen’s Red Sea port city of Mokha, giving Tehran an additional leverage point in its half‑year confrontation with the United States.

Analysts view the Houthi seizure of Mokha as a serious setback for Saudi Arabia and the Yemeni forces it supports, and it could intensify Iranian pressure on two crucial oil chokepoints flanking the Arabian Peninsula: the Bab el‑Mandeb Strait and the Strait of Hormuz.

The fighters captured Mokha on Thursday, according to the Associated Press, which cited Yemeni and Houthi sources. Verum was unable to independently verify the claim.

Mokha, a strategic Red Sea locality that lent its name to Mocha coffee, lies roughly 75 kilometers (46 miles) north of the Bab el‑Mandeb Strait, the waterway linking the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden and onward to worldwide markets.

Since the onset of the U.S.–Israel campaign against Iran in late February, the Bab el‑Mandeb Strait’s strategic value has risen sharply, as it has become an alternate route for crude shipments headed to Asia.

Experts warn that the Houthi push toward the Bab el‑Mandeb could disrupt global trade, especially if the militia escalates threats or launches attacks on Red Sea shipping lanes.

Hamish Kinnear, lead Middle East and North Africa analyst at risk intelligence firm Verisk Maplecroft, described the Mokha takeover as a “major blow” to Saudi Arabia because it raises the prospect of the Houthis tightening their hold on the Bab el‑Mandeb chokepoint.

He added, “The Houthis were already menacing Saudi shipping from earlier positions, but seizing Mokha opens the door to further advances along the Bab el‑Mandeb coastline and a firmer grip on the strategic passage.”

Kinnear noted that, as the conflict drags on, both Tehran and Washington see time working in their favor, making a fresh cease‑fire unlikely in the near term.

He also said, “Oil and gas prices, and diesel in particular, will keep climbing as long as that situation persists — even if U.S. convoys and alternative export routes via the Strait of Hormuz soften the price impact.”

What lies ahead for oil markets?

On Friday morning oil prices slipped, yet the two main benchmarks stayed on track to close the week above $100 a barrel for the first time since mid‑May.

International benchmark Brent crude

ING analysts said the oil market’s resilience is being tested by a growing awareness of the threat to regional supply, with traders reassessing both the length and severity of the conflict.

Even though traffic continues through the Strait of Hormuz, ING’s experts stressed that flows remain far below pre‑war levels, highlighting how fragile the situation has become.

“Saudi energy facilities and Red Sea crude exports are increasingly exposed, with the Houthis in Yemen targeting the kingdom,” warned ING’s Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey in a Friday research note.

They also observed, “Since the Houthis have seized the Red Sea port of Mokha in Yemen, recent developments heighten the risk to shipping around the Bab al‑Mandeb Strait.”

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