Consumer prices for a broad range of goods and services edged up in July, per the Federal Reserve’s key inflation metric. The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, the Fed’s preferred tool for forecasting, rose 0.2% on a seasonally adjusted basis for the month, resulting in an annual inflation rate of 3.7%, as reported by the Commerce Department on Wednesday. Both figures exceeded the Dow Jones consensus by 0.1 percentage points. Excluding volatile food and energy components, the core PCE index increased 0.2% monthly and 3.3% annually, aligning with expectations. Federal Reserve policymakers view core inflation as a more reliable indicator of long-term trends. Additionally, the report indicated that personal income grew by 0.4% and spending rose by 0.2%, both surpassing estimates. Goods prices fell 0.1% over the month, primarily due to a 2.7% drop in gasoline and energy-related items, alongside a 0.9% decline in furnishings and durable household equipment. Conversely, services prices climbed 0.3%, fueled by a 1.2% rise in financial services and insurance, and a 0.3% increase in housing. Following the report, stock market futures slightly retreated while Treasury yields advanced. The data emerges as Fed officials assess their next policy steps, with inflation remaining above the central bank’s 2% target despite softer recent monthly trends. The Federal Open Market Committee is not scheduled to meet in August, providing a brief pause before their next session on September 15-16. Market odds suggest only a one-in-three chance of a rate adjustment then, with December seen as more likely for a potential hike. Concurrently, Fed officials are convening at the Jackson Hole symposium in Wyoming, featuring a policy address from Chairman Kevin Warsh on Friday. Since assuming office in May, Warsh has maintained a cautious stance on policy direction, allowing markets to influence expectations. Government bond yields have recently climbed, with 10- and 30-year Treasury yields reaching their highest points since 2007, prior to the global financial crisis. This uptick stems from multiple factors, including concerns about the Fed’s dedication to its inflation goal, as well as federal budget debt and deficit issues. Last week, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced a plan to increase government debt buybacks, though market participants question its potential impact on yields.

Oil prices remained largely unchanged on Wednesday following a announcement by Iran’s hard-line Revolutionary Guard that Tehran had struck a deal with Oman to jointly manage the strategic Strait of Hormuz.

A spokesperson for the Revolutionary Guard confirmed to the state-run news agency Tasnim that Iran and Oman have agreed to share revenues derived from Hormuz. While the spokesperson did not specify a transit fee for navigating the strait, the revenue-sharing arrangement implies that Tehran intends to implement some form of charge.

According to Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi, as reported by Tasnim, vessels would enter the Persian Gulf via Iranian territorial waters and depart through a jointly administered corridor traversing both Omani and Iranian maritime zones.

Helima Croft, head of global commodity strategy at RBC Capital Markets, expressed skepticism over whether the United States would approve of Iran co-managing Hormuz. She also noted to Verum that Gulf states already targeted by Iran during past conflicts are unlikely to pay fees to Tehran for oil shipments through the strait.

Earlier in the trading session, oil prices dropped over 3%, as markets reacted to the U.S. preference for economic sanctions over military action against Iran, temporarily easing concerns about renewed conflict. For the week, prices have declined by more than 5%.

The Revolutionary Guard stated that the U.S. has been working to block the Iran-Oman deal. The spokesman emphasized that Washington must recognize the agreement before the strait can fully reopen.

The latest statement follows a meeting on Tuesday between the foreign ministers of Iran and Oman in Tehran, where they discussed establishing a temporary shared shipping lane through Hormuz. The two nations are geographically separated by the strait, which narrows to just 21 miles at its tightest point.

President Donald Trump hinted at military action earlier this month, suggesting he might bomb Oman after being questioned by Fox News about Muscat’s talks with Tehran regarding Hormuz. On Wednesday, Trump claimed that Hormuz was operating normally, with approximately 10 million barrels of oil passing through the strait on Tuesday. “A tremendous amount of oil is flowing out,” Trump said during an interview with conservative commentator Glenn Beck.

Trump has repeatedly asserted that the U.S. maintains control over Hormuz, citing military escorts provided to tanker vessels transiting the area near Oman’s coastline. Last week, U.S. Central Command informed Verum that 660 million barrels of crude oil have exited Hormuz since May under American military protection.

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Nvidia’s outstanding profit performance over the past year has added a premium to Wall Street’s expectations, pushing up the bar for what counts as an earnings beat and making it tougher for the stock to respond positively to quarterly financial reports. The Santa Clara, California-based chipmaker, which reports second-quarter earnings after the market closes Wednesday, has seen its stock pull back the day after reporting earnings in the all of the last four quarters — despite meeting or beating estimates for earnings per share, revenue and forward guidance. Over the past year, Nvidia has topped expectations for all the topline metrics – with the lone exception of the second quarter of last year, when it simply met guidance forecasts – and yet has still been penalized by investors the next trading day, according to Bespoke Data. “If I’m thinking about Nvidia guiding, I’m also thinking about the fact that for the last, say, three years they’ve consistently beat. … So whatever guide they give you, you have to think [it’s] with the expectation that they’re going to come in a bit ahead of that,” Matthew Bryson at Wedbush Securities told CNBC Monday. Carrying the weight The weight of the artificial intelligence buildout is falling largely on Nvidia’s shoulders, with the company increasingly positioned not only as the dominant hardware provider but also as the bank . The question is what Nvidia can do to actually impress investors on earnings day. The Street is projecting second-quarter EPS of $2.09 and second-quarter sales of $92.2 billion, according to FactSet. Cantor Fitzgerald highlighted consensus third-quarter sales expectations of $103.7 billion in a Saturday report. NVDA 1Y mountain Nvidia over the past year Beating expectations on top of the built-in premium would win laurels from investors. “Over $105 billion [for third-quarter revenue guidance]” would surprise to the upside, Kevin Cassidy at Rosenblatt Securities said Monday. “And $110 billion would be a blowout.” Shareholder returns But signs that the company is planning to return more of its profits to shareholders as opposed to recapitalizing them as part of the continuing AI buildout would win even more accolades from Wall Street. ”[Another] catalyst we’re looking for, if the numbers don’t amaze investors, is [news on the] promise that they’ll start implementing 50% of free cash flow going back to purchasing stock and increasing the dividend,” Cassidy said. Cassidy compared the potential change in Nvidia’s capital structure to choices made by consumer electronics maker Apple after growth of the company’s signature iPhone started to slow. “No one was impressed with iPhone numbers after a while but then they started buying back shares, and so I think we could see a repeat of that for Nvidia,” he said. News about Nvidia’s latest AI chip platform – the Vera Rubin – could also move the stock, though industry experts wonder about the practical use cases in the short term, as the technological capabilities appear to be far ahead of the implementable commercial demand. “It’s cool that it exists, and I like reading about things like that. But as far as who uses it, whether they’re going to pay for it, what they’re going to pay for it – all that stuff is kind of up in the air,” said David Linthicum, former chief cloud strategy officer at Deloitte. Regardless of how Nvidia stock performs following earnings this quarter, the latest numbers will immediately send signals about the health of global equity markets, which are being propelled by the AI boom. “Nvidia is basically the AI bellwether,” said Yi Fu Lee, a software sector analyst at Benchmark StoneX. “It’s the bellwether for all my Saas stocks because [it tells us whether] there’s still healthy demand within semiconductors” for graphics processing units.

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