On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve is expected to extend a pause on interest rate cuts for a fourth consecutive time this year. Though mortgage rates could see some volatility, many economists expect them to stay somewhat flat until the economic picture drastically changes. 

Rates will stay in the 6.75% to 7.25% range unless the Fed signals multiple cuts soon and backs it up with data, said Nicole Rueth, of the Rueth Team with Movement Mortgage. «Homebuyers waiting on rates to drop drastically might be disappointed,» Rueth said. 

The relationship between the central bank’s interest rate decisions and home loan rates isn’t direct or immediate. Case in point: The Fed’s three interest rate cuts in 2024 didn’t translate into cheaper mortgages. The average rate for a 30-year fixed home loan has hovered around 6.8% since late fall. 

Often, what the central bank says about future plans can move the market more than its actual actions. Mortgage rates are driven by the bond market, investor expectations and a host of other economic factors.

«Mortgage rates move on expectations, not announcements,» said Rueth. 

Tomorrow’s focus will be on what Fed Chair Jerome Powell says following the meeting. Should Powell express concern over lingering inflation or a reduced number of rate cuts, bond yields and mortgage rates are expected to rise. If he conveys optimism about inflation and suggests further policy easing, mortgage rates may decline.

«It’s most often the case that longer-term interest rates begin to decline before the Fed cuts rates,» said Keith Gumbinger, vice president at HSH.com.

Here’s what you need to know about how the government’s interest rate policies influence the mortgage market.

What is the Fed’s relationship to mortgage rates?

The Fed sets and oversees US monetary policy under a dual mandate to maintain price stability and maximum employment. It does this largely by adjusting the federal funds rate, the rate at which banks borrow and lend their money. 

When the economy weakens and unemployment rises, the Fed lowers interest rates to encourage spending and propel growth, as it did during the COVID-19 pandemic. 

It does the opposite when inflation is high. For example, the Fed raised its benchmark interest rate by more than five percentage points between early 2022 and mid-2023 to slow price growth by curbing consumer borrowing and spending.

Changes in the cost of borrowing set off a slow chain reaction that eventually affects mortgage rates and the housing market, as banks pass along the Fed’s rate hikes or cuts to consumers through longer-term loans, including home loans. 

Yet, because mortgage rates respond to several economic factors, it’s not uncommon for the federal funds rate and mortgage rates to move in different directions for some time. 

Why is the Fed putting off interest rate cuts?

After making three interest rate cuts in 2024, the Fed is now in a holding pattern. With President Donald Trump’s unpredictable tariff campaign, immigration policies and federal cutbacks threatening to drive up prices and drag on growth, economists say the central bank has good reason to pause. 

«The Federal Reserve is in one of the trickiest spots in recent economic history,» said Ali Wolf, Zonda and NewHomeSource chief economist. 

Lowering interest rates could allow inflation to surge, which is bad for mortgage rates. Keeping rates high, however, increases the risk of a job-loss recession that would cause widespread financial hardship. 

Recent data show inflation making slow but steady progress toward the Fed’s annual target rate of 2%. But given the uncertainty surrounding Trump’s economic agenda, the central bank isn’t in a hurry to lower borrowing rates. 

What is the forecast for interest rate cuts in 2025?

Though Powell remains noncommittal on any specific time frame, experts now predict an interest rate cut in the fall. 

«I’m eyeing September for the first rate cut, if inflation keeps cooling and the labor market weakens,» Rueth said.

However, tariffs are the big wildcard. Rueth said that if a trade war fuels inflation, rates could jump even without a Fed move. Political dysfunction, rising debt and global instability are also a recipe for rate volatility. 

«The mortgage market reacts fast to uncertainty, and we’ve got no shortage of it this summer,» Rueth said. 

On the flip side, if unemployment spikes — a real possibility given rising jobless claims — the Fed could be forced to implement interest rate cuts earlier than anticipated. In that case, mortgage rates should gradually ease, though not dramatically. 

Most housing market forecasts, which already factor in at least two 0.25% Fed cuts, call for 30-year mortgage rates to stay above 6.5% throughout 2025. 

«We might see rates settle into the low to mid-6% by year-end,» Rueth said. «But we’re not going back to 3%.»

What other factors affect mortgage rates?

Mortgage rates move around for many of the same reasons home prices do: supply, demand, inflation and even the employment rate. 

Personal factors, such as a homebuyer’s credit score, down payment and home loan amount, also determine one’s individual mortgage rate. Different loan types and terms also have varying interest rates. 

Policy changes: When the Fed adjusts the federal funds rate, it affects many aspects of the economy, including mortgage rates. The federal funds rate affects how much it costs banks to borrow money, which in turn affects what banks charge consumers to make a profit.

Inflation: Generally, when inflation is high, mortgage rates tend to be high. Because inflation chips away at purchasing power, lenders set higher interest rates on loans to make up for that loss and ensure a profit.

Supply and demand: When demand for mortgages is high, lenders tend to raise interest rates. This is because they have only so much capital to lend in the form of home loans. Conversely, when demand for mortgages is low, lenders tend to slash interest rates to attract borrowers.

Bond market activity: Mortgage lenders peg fixed interest rates, like fixed-rate mortgages, to bond rates. Mortgage bonds, also called mortgage-backed securities, are bundles of mortgages sold to investors and are closely tied to the 10-year Treasury. When bond interest rates are high, the bond has less value on the market where investors buy and sell securities, causing mortgage interest rates to go up.

Other key indicators: Employment patterns and other aspects of the economy that affect investor confidence and consumer spending and borrowing also influence mortgage rates. For instance, a strong jobs report and a robust economy could indicate greater demand for housing, which can put upward pressure on mortgage rates. When the economy slows and unemployment is high, mortgage rates tend to be lower.

Read more: Fact Check: Trump Doesn’t Have the Power to Force Lower Interest Rates

Is now a good time to get a mortgage?

Even though timing is everything in the mortgage market, you can’t control what the Fed does. «Forecasting interest rates is nearly impossible in today’s market,» said Wolf. 

Regardless of the economy, the most important thing when shopping for a mortgage is to make sure you can comfortably afford your monthly payments. 

More homebuying advice

• Weekly Mortgage Predictions
• Forget Mortgage Rates. Americans Say They Can’t Even Save for a Down Payment
• Despite Lower Mortgage Rates, Another Refinancing Boom Isn’t Likely. Here’s Why
• You Might Be Eager to Buy a House, but Homeowners Are Holding Tight to Their Mortgages

When it comes to listening to music during travels, focusing on work and immersing yourself in a gaming session, you can’t beat a good pair of noise-canceling headphones. However, a high-quality pair can come at a cost, especially if you’re looking at a pair from brands such as Sony. Right now, Amazon Prime members can grab the Sony WH-1000XM6 headphones for just $448, saving you $32 over its usual price of $480. This is its first-ever discount. Your order also includes a free $30 Amazon gift card you can use for a future purchase, which could come in handy as Amazon Prime Day is coming up in a few weeks. Amazon’s free gift card offer is live until June 23.

If you prefer Best Buy, you can grab these headphones for just $450 and a free three-month subscription to YouTube Premium with your purchase. You might also be able to save a bit more on these headphones at Best Buy if you have an eligible device to trade in.

With a battery life of up to 30 hours on a full charge you’ll be able to get through almost an entire workweek without having to remove your headphones. Sony created these headphones to provide quality sound, crisp bass and clear treble for an immersive experience. Its noise cancellation is perfect for letting you focus on calls, work tasks and decreasing the sound of any potential distractions. You can use the sound connect app to customize your sound so your favorite genres sound exactly the way you want.

These WH-1000XM6 headphones were built with plush ear cups, an adjustable headphone and a foldable design. They can also be used with the included 3.5mm cable that allows you to use them wired to conserve battery life. Your purchase will also include a carrying case and a USB-C charging cable. For a more budget-friendly option, the previous version WH-1000XM5 is down to just $300, saving you $100.

If you’re looking for a new pair of headphones but aren’t sure if this deal is for you, check out our list of the best headphones so you can compare before you browse.

Why this deal matters

Sony’s WH-1000XM6 headphones are the latest in Sony’s line of noise-canceling headphones. This $32 discount is this pair’s first, and you can nab a free $30 gift card if you have Amazon Prime. If you go the Best Buy route, you’ll get $30 off and get a free three-month YouTube Premium subscription.

Alaska got its first-ever heat advisory over the weekend, which is in effect until June 17. Over the last few days, temperatures in central Alaska have reached 86 degrees Fahrenheit (that’s 30 Celsius).

It’s not as if Alaska never gets hot in the summer. However, as Jason Laney, a warning coordination meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Fairbanks, Alaska, told CNET, «The frequency with which the heat is coming up is starting to be a bit of a concern.»

This heat advisory seems pretty big, especially for an area where most people don’t have air conditioners. But there’s an important caveat to keep in mind.

While this is the first heat advisory for Alaska issued by the National Weather Service, it’s not the first time that Alaska has seen high temperatures. This is simply the first time heat advisories were an option for offices in Fairbanks and Alaska’s capital city of Juneau. Before a change that took effect on June 2, the National Weather Service announced heat risks through special weather statements. According to a statement, this change will allow offices in Fairbanks and Juneau to communicate heat information more effectively. Anchorage, Alaska’s largest city, has opted out for now.

Residents of Fairbanks and surrounding areas need to prepare for these temperatures because this is a significant jump in heat, around 15 degrees above the area’s average.

How hot is it going to get?

The average temperature for Fairbanks, central Alaska, is in the low 70s through the bulk of the summer. The forecast for the next few days predicts temperatures in the mid-to-upper 80s. While some parts of the US may not bat an eye at the mid-80s (stop laughing, Arizona), Alaska is different. Many places don’t have air conditioners, and many buildings are designed to trap heat to get through cold winters. That means serious heat-related risks are associated with these temperatures, even indoors

The criteria for a heat advisory in Alaska range between 75 to 85 degrees Fahrenheit, depending on the location. Fairbanks’s limit is 85 degrees, and the forecast exceeds that limit. 

That number was picked intentionally. Laney and the National Weather Service team worked with the state climatologist in Alaska to look at the last 10 to 20 years of temperatures, noting how frequently temperatures rose. Laney told me that it was important that the criteria temperature was met no more than three times a year. 

«We wanted it to come out when it meant something,» Laney said.

Although the criteria are final, Laney said it has the potential to change. 

«If we end up issuing too many of these things this year, then we know we set our criteria too low,» he said.

A flood watch was also issued on June 12 to warn people about river flooding from rapid snow melting.

Despite the heat advisory, these are not Alaska’s highest temperatures. In June 1969, Fairbanks’ record high was 96 degrees. Temperatures in Fairbanks generally rise to the mid-80s two to three times each year, though depending on how many days temperatures remain in the 80s, it could be one of the longest hot streaks on record for the area. The longest consecutive streak for the area was in 1991 with 14 days.

Alaskan weather deals in extremes

Alaska is an area of extremes. Winter is six months of snow on the ground with subfreezing temperatures but spring hits just as hard — and fast. According to Laney, it only takes four to six weeks to melt about three feet of snow. Trees turn green in 48 to 72 hours.

«The issue is that the body takes a while to acclimate to this,» Laney said. «Because the swing is so rapid, most people who spend a winter in Alaska aren’t used to the heat just yet.»

Another thing to remember is that official temperatures are reported in the shade, not the sunlight. This brings us to a unique quirk of Alaska: the sunshine lasts 20 to 21 hours a day at this time of year. Only about 2% of houses have AC, Laney told me, and many have larger windows that let in as much sunlight as possible in the winter. This can backfire in the summer when they let in that sunlight, and the six- to eight-inch-thick walls that accommodate extra insulation trap in the heat.

Alaska is warming faster than other places

The climate is warming because of emissions from fossil fuels and extreme heat is becoming more common. The World Meteorological Organization predicts that global heat will only worsen over the next five years. There’s roughly an 80% chance that in the next five years, we’ll surpass 2024, the hottest year ever recorded.

The effects of climate change are felt everywhere. Alaska, however, is warming two to three times faster than the rest of the globe, resulting in permafrost thawing, glaciers shrinking and transformations in Alaska’s ecosystems.

«Alaska is actually ranked as the fastest warming state in the United States due to its high latitude,» said Sara Tonks, meteorologist for The Weather Company. 

«So far, the state has warmed by 4.3 degrees since 1970, and it is expected to continue to warm according to projections from NOAA’s U.S. Climate Resistance Toolkit,» Tonks said.

The statewide average air temperature has increased by 3 degrees in the past 60 years, and winter temperatures are up 6 degrees. If global emissions continue at the current rate, annual precipitation is also expected to grow 15% to 30%. 

It’s challenging to quantify Alaska’s rapid warming’s impacts because they affect everything from people to roads to biodiversity in wildlife. For example, the permafrost soil under about 85% of Alaska’s surface could shift or shrink as it thaws because of continued extreme temperatures. In the long run, this could damage everything from pipelines to buildings, sewer systems and the water supply. And the change will be especially tough on groups more vulnerable to extreme temperatures, whether because of socioeconomic or medical conditions.

Heat safety tips to keep in mind

Per the heat advisory from the National Weather Service, «Individuals and pets not accustomed to these unusually hot temperatures for this region may experience heat-related concerns.»

It’s essential to prepare where you can for the heat, especially because many people won’t be able to escape the high temperatures. Small changes can go a long way.

Simple tips to use when it’s hot outside:

• Monitor how you’re feeling and watch out for cramps or heat-related symptoms
• Wear loose-fitting clothing
• Wear sunscreen
• Take breaks
• Limit outdoor exercise to the morning or evening 
• Prioritize hydration
• Draw your blinds or curtains
• Weather-strip your windows and door
• Invest in a portable air conditioner
• If you do have an AC unit in your home, change the filter and check the vents 

Signs of heat-related illness, such as heat exhaustion or heatstroke, include confusion, heavy sweating, nausea, muscle cramps, a fast pulse and cold and clammy skin.