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Waiting for a Recession to Buy a Home? This Realtor Weighs In

Here are the most important things to know about mortgage rates during an economic downturn.

The economy’s been all over the place lately. Inflation might be coming down, but rising tariffs, stock market dips and global uncertainty are keeping everyone on edge. With mortgage rates bouncing around, homebuyers are asking me, Will housing become more affordable in a recession?

After more than 20 years in real estate, I’ve seen my share of ups and downs, from boom times to full-blown crashes, like 2008. The truth? There’s always opportunity, even in a downturn. The market doesn’t stop during a recession. It just shifts. And if you’re ready, that shift can actually work in your favor.

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Let’s break down what a recession really means for mortgage rates, home prices and your opportunity to buy a home. 

Is a recession on its way?

There are plenty of recession warning signs right now. Layoffs are picking up, GDP is slowing and consumer confidence has dipped. Paychecks aren’t going as far, and retirement accounts are taking hits. 

While less disposable income and tighter budgets point to a general slowdown in the economy, technically, we’re not in a recession. Not yet. It would take two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth to hit that definition. But for a lot of folks, it already feels like one. 

High prices and inflation aren’t the same thing. Even if the inflation rate isn’t going up, the cost of everyday goods and services is still high, and budgets are getting hammered. When folks feel the squeeze every time they swipe a card at the grocery store, it shapes how they think about making huge purchases like a home.

Will the Fed cut interest rates?

Borrowing costs have been expensive for the last several years, making households and businesses wary about taking out loans. The Federal Reserve will probably cut interest rates again later this year, eventually making financing cheaper. 

But those cuts won’t come for a while. The Fed’s a bit stuck right now. The economy’s losing steam and inflation is cooling, but not fast enough. The central bank is being cautious about shifting policy, especially with tariffs driving prices back up.

Though lower interest rates will eventually impact the housing market, the Fed doesn’t directly control mortgage rates. Mortgage rates move based on many factors, such as the bond market and investor expectations. Even when the Fed starts cutting rates again, don’t expect mortgage rates to drop like crazy. Many of those expected cuts are already priced into the market. 

Will mortgage rates drop in a recession?

Mortgage rates often fall during an economic depression, as we saw recently in 2020 and earlier in 2008. Lower rates help boost the economy, and the Fed knows that.

But this time around, things are messier. There’s volatility everywhere. Even though rates could drop, they might also shoot back up with any good economic news. Like many experts in the real estate industry, I think average rates for a 30-year fixed mortgage will hover between 6.5% to 7.25% for most of 2025, with weekly jumps and dips in that range. 

If you’re holding out for 4% or 5% mortgage rates, you may be waiting longer than you’d like. It’s going to take far more negative economic news to see rates fall in a big way.

It’s also worth pointing out that your personal financial situation matters more than your interest rate. If you’ve got a solid stream of income and a long-term plan for paying off a home loan, waiting for a perfect rate might not be worth it.

Will home prices go down in a recession?

Home prices are the big question. And the answer is… they won’t likely go down in a big way.

Historically, home prices don’t fall much during recessions. The 2008 housing crash was the exception, not the rule. What we’ll probably see is slower appreciation or small dips in certain markets, especially in areas hit by higher insurance costs, taxes or natural disasters (Florida, Texas and Louisiana come to mind).

But nationwide, we’re still dealing with low inventory. Until that changes, it’s hard to see prices dropping dramatically. Plus, given high construction and labor costs, it’s clear home prices aren’t falling off a cliff anytime soon.

Is it cheaper to buy a home during a recession?

If you’re financially stable, it could be cheaper to buy a home in a recession. You might find better deals, less competition and more negotiating power. But if lending tightens, getting a loan could get tougher. That’s something we’re already starting to see with condos and certain types of properties.

And don’t overlook the «wealth effect.» When people feel wealthier, like when their stock portfolio or home value is up, they’re more confident making big purchases. 

But when those numbers start to slide, or there’s even a threat of job insecurity, even if nothing’s really changed day to day, people pull back. That affects buyer activity in a big way. If someone just lost $20,000 in their 401(k), they’re not rushing to get a new mortgage.

What’s the best time to buy a home? 

The best time to buy a home is when it makes sense for you. If you’ve got a steady income and strong credit, and you’re ready to settle down, a recession could actually work in your favor. 

Just don’t wait around for some magical «perfect time» to take out a mortgage. The green light most people are waiting for doesn’t exist. But if you prepare, stay informed and work with the right team, you can make a smart move no matter what the economy’s doing.

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Technologies

Today’s Wordle Hints, Answer and Help for Dec. 9, #1634

Here are hints and the answer for today’s Wordle for Dec. 9, No. 1,634.

Looking for the most recent Wordle answer? Click here for today’s Wordle hints, as well as our daily answers and hints for The New York Times Mini Crossword, Connections, Connections: Sports Edition and Strands puzzles.

Today’s Wordle puzzle is a little tricky. If you need a new starter word, check out our list of which letters show up the most in English words. If you need hints and the answer, read on.

Today’s Wordle hints

Before we show you today’s Wordle answer, we’ll give you some hints. If you don’t want a spoiler, look away now.

Wordle hint No. 1: Repeats

Today’s Wordle answer has no repeated letters.

Wordle hint No. 2: Vowels

Today’s Wordle answer has two vowels.

Wordle hint No. 3: First letter

Today’s Wordle answer begins with S.

Wordle hint No. 4: Last letter

Today’s Wordle answer ends with E.

Wordle hint No. 5: Meaning

Today’s Wordle answer can refer to being insulting or derogatory.

TODAY’S WORDLE ANSWER

Today’s Wordle answer is SNIDE.

Yesterday’s Wordle answer

Yesterday’s Wordle answer, Dec. 8, No. 1633 was GRAVY.

Recent Wordle answers

Dec. 4, No. 1629: TULIP

Dec. 5, No. 1630: AMONG

Dec. 6, No. 1631: WAIST

Dec. 7, No. 1632: FLUTE

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Technologies

Today’s NYT Mini Crossword Answers for Tuesday, Dec. 9

Here are the answers for The New York Times Mini Crossword for Dec. 9.

Looking for the most recent Mini Crossword answer? Click here for today’s Mini Crossword hints, as well as our daily answers and hints for The New York Times Wordle, Strands, Connections and Connections: Sports Edition puzzles.

Need some help with today’s Mini Crossword? It’s a tough one today, and might take longer than usual. Read on for the answers. And if you could use some hints and guidance for daily solving, check out our Mini Crossword tips.

If you’re looking for today’s Wordle, Connections, Connections: Sports Edition and Strands answers, you can visit CNET’s NYT puzzle hints page.

Read more: Tips and Tricks for Solving The New York Times Mini Crossword

Let’s get to those Mini Crossword clues and answers.

Mini across clues and answers

1A clue: Apt profession for someone named Rosemary or Ginger
Answer: CHEF

5A clue: Get to go, as leftovers
Answer: BOXUP

7A clue: Word that can precede Bowl or Glue
Answer: SUPER

8A clue: Intense anger
Answer: RAGE

9A clue: «Cut that out!»
Answer: STOP

Mini down clues and answers

1D clue: Stephen Colbert’s network
Answer: CBS

2D clue: Noted group of 24
Answer: HOURS

3D clue: One living abroad, informally
Answer: EXPAT

4D clue: Spanish for «fire»
Answer: FUEGO

6D clue: Do some kitchen work
Answer: PREP

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AI Saves Workers Less Than an Hour Each Day, New OpenAI Report Shows

AI adoption is rapidly expanding across industries, but workers are saving only 40 to 60 minutes per day, on average.

OpenAI’s 2025 ‘The State of Enterprise AI’ report provides an in-depth look at how businesses are using AI tools within real companies. Drawing on anonymized usage data from more than 1 million business customers, along with a survey of 9,000 workers at nearly 100 organizations, the report presents a picture of increased AI adoption and integration in the workplace. 

«Across surveyed enterprises, 75% of workers report that using AI at work has improved either the speed or quality of their output,» the report states. Also, the report says that «75% of users report being able to complete new tasks they previously could not perform.» 

However, the productivity gains might not be as universal and widespread as anticipated: on average, ChatGPT Enterprise users save less than an hour of time per day, according to the report.

Below is a breakdown of the report’s major findings.

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Report shows productivity gains, but it’s not universal 

Despite the hype surrounding AI at work, the latest data from OpenAI suggests that the reality for most employees is modest. In its report, the company says that on average, ChatGPT Enterprise users save only about 40 to 60 minutes per active workday.

That’s not nothing, but it’s nowhere near the sweeping productivity overhaul that many hoped for. In a workday filled with meetings, emails and tool overload, an hour reclaimed can feel like a minimal benefit rather than a tidal shift in productivity.

(Disclosure: Ziff Davis, CNET’s parent company, in April filed a lawsuit against OpenAI, alleging it infringed Ziff Davis copyrights in training and operating its AI systems.)

A few key findings 

The report finds AI adoption within companies is growing fast. Weekly messages in ChatGPT Enterprise have increased nearly eightfold in the past year, and the use of structured workflows, such as custom GPTs, has risen 19 times. Companies are pushing more complex prompts, too, with reasoning-token usage increasing more than 320-fold.

But the outcomes don’t scale at the same rate. Workers say they complete certain tasks more quickly — like IT troubleshooting, campaign creation and coding improvements — yet the day-to-day gains still add up to roughly an hour on average.

A divide between heavy AI users and everyone else

OpenAI’s data shows a widening gap between «frontier» users — defined by OpenAI as those in the 95th percentile of adoption intensity — and the average worker, however.

Frontier employees send about six times more messages than average users. Unsurprisingly, these heavy users report bigger gains of over 10 hours a week. They build workflows around AI, automate routine tasks and turn the tool into a dependable co-worker instead of an occasional assistant. Though arguably, around 2 hours per day of saved time is still relatively moderate. 

OpenAI frames the report as a snapshot of where enterprise AI stands today, rather than a final verdict. The company suggests that future gains could come not from the model itself, but from how organizations reshape processes and workflows around it. 

But for most workers, AI is still a sidekick. Useful, but not transformative. It helps speed things up. It may even make some work less tedious. But the typical worker saving under an hour a day points to a technology that is powerful, yet still limited. The big question now is whether those numbers will keep climbing, or whether an hour a day is closer to the ceiling than AI enthusiasts want to admit.

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